There seems to be a lot of confusion about the 42% catch thing and how that could be when JBJ made such an awesome play to snag it and I wanted to try to explain why, at least to me, it makes sense.
I've rejected a whole bunch of more elaborate versions for this--here goes:
- 42% means that fewer than half of MLB CFs positioned as J
- JBJ is in the bottom 25% of CFs in terms of speed.
Ergo: All other things/skills being equal, another CF of JBJ's speed would be WAY less than 42% likely to make that catch.
Conclusion: The Red Sox are willing to position JBJ that far to right field in situations like that because they trust him, in spite of his inferior speed, to make that catch. [Editorial Note: That's baller as shit.]
That suggest to me that the Red Sox believe that JBJ is a superior center fielder.