The Goat Thread: SBLII vs Eagles

The next play the Pats gave up the ball on downs and then the Eagles drove down the field and scored a TD.
I'm not getting on Brady for not being able to do something that isn't in his natural skill set but to say not catching that didn't change the game much is way off.

Edit:Obviously in reference to heavyde050 saying the Brady drop didn't change the game.

Byrdbrain said:

The next play the Pats gave up the ball on downs and then the Eagles drove down the field and scored a TD.
I'm not getting on Brady for not being able to do something that isn't in his natural skill set but to say not catching that didn't change the game much is way off.

Edit:Obviously in reference to heavyde050 saying the Brady drop didn't change the game.

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I apologize if I wasn't clear. I meant it didn't lead to the loss (in reference to the meme mentioned about Brady dropping a Lombardi).
And that 4th down pass (probably should have been a flag) was just as important as the Brady drop.
And the key thing you mentioned is that the defense let them drive right down the field after that to score.
Yes...Brady probably should have caught that pass, but the Pats may or may not have got a TD on that drive. They also could have missed a FG.
I am just saying that it wasn't one of the main reasons for the loss.

BaseballJones said:

Yep. I had a friend (Jets fan of all things) send me a meme that had Brady see a Lombardi slip off his fingertips on that trick play. I'm like, well, it's hard to catch a Lombardi when you're holding five in your arms.

Your point is well taken. You get here enough times, and sometimes things will go poorly for you, or a bounce will go the other way. The great Yankees lost to the Marlins (!) and the Diamondbacks. They blew a 3-0 lead against the Red Sox.

Even the 49ers...well, they may not have lost a Super Bowl, but they got knocked out of what was the de facto Super Bowl (the NFCCG - at a time when the NFC absolutely DOMINATED the AFC) a bunch of times.

Sucks to lose, but the team once again showed incredible grit. Even in the end, after they turned it over, they completely stoned Philly and forced the field goal and still made a gallant effort to get down the field for one last try. In some ways, this game showed even more why Brady is the GOAT. His defense couldn't get a stop all game, and he had to play a perfect game, and very nearly did.

There is no way that with 2:30 left and the Pats having the ball down 5, that there was any Eagle fan that wasn't crapping their pants. Hoping, PRAYING, for a turnover (which, of course, they got). Because without that turnover, there was no way Brady wasn't taking them down for the winning TD.

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Great observation, especially the last point. To me it was one of the few positives in a roundabout way. I've never seen such a look of fear and terror in the eyes of fans of a team that was WINNING once Philly had gone up at the end of the game. The owner, the fans, the guys on the sidelines had fear in their eyes that spoke to the highest level of respect of TB12 and the New England Patriots.

You cannot win them all and especially when you give up 41 with no pass rush and a weak defense. I know we had that game, but sometimes it is what it is, so let's build on the strengths and address the weaknesses to make a run in 2018.

Reardons Beard said:

Great observation, especially the last point. To me it was one of the few positives in a roundabout way. I've never seen such a look of fear and terror in the eyes of fans of a team that was WINNING once Philly had gone up at the end of the game. The owner, the fans, the guys on the sidelines had fear in their eyes that spoke to be the highest level of respect of TB12 and the New England Patriots.

You cannot win them all and especially when you give up 41 with no pass rush and a weak defense. I know we had that game, but sometimes it is what it is, so let's be build on the strengths address the weaknesses to make a run in 2018.

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This. I think the Pats will be back next year (with health to key players).

Expecting Brady to catch a pass that was a bit overthrown is ridiculous

Belichick, Patricia, the defense.

Whatever.

There were three 4th and 1 situations in this game. All of them were statistical no brainer "go for it" situations, and the context of this game further favored going for it.

The Eagles went tried for theirs and got the results they wanted. We passed up ours and got about the worst outcome possible. That botched field goal was hardly a likely outcome, but it was a cruel bit of karmic justice for making the "safe" call instead of the intelligent one.

This one hurts--51 years old, and I feel just like I did in '76 after the Raiders loss. Can't stop obsessing over each little play that could have turned the game. The Bademosi missed tackle is eating away at me.

williams_482 said:

There were three 4th and 1 situations in this game. All of them were statistical no brainer "go for it" situations, and the context of this game further favored going for it.

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I dunno, it was closer to 4th and 2 and the score was 9-3, it’s not like they could have predicted the Eagles putting up over 40. Kicking was fine there imo.

they really missed jonathan jones

DeadlySplitter said:

Expecting Brady to catch a pass that was a bit overthrown is ridiculous

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IIRC Brady did a suboptimal job of opening up his body and giving Amendola a clean target, unlike the last time they ran the play.

Well maybe, but compare the throw that was to him against the throw that Foles had to catch. The Amendola throw was at fault here, not Brady's catching abilities.

Koufax said:

Well maybe, but compare the throw that was to him against the throw that Foles had to catch. The Amendola throw was at fault here, not Brady's catching abilities.

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It's kind of ridiculous to parse the blame on a play where a non-QB had to throw a longish pass to a non-receiver. That's the downside of a play like this.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

First really bad snap of the season for Cardona, to the best of my memory.

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I think he's had a few this year

Someone, ESPN?, ranked all the players on both squads from best to worst. They had Cardona ranked as the worst player on either roster.

BigJimEd said:

I think he's had a few this year

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Yes, definitely.

Is it weird I was angrier after the 4-and-2 game than this?

Ed Hillel said:

I dunno, it was closer to 4th and 2 and the score was 9-3, it’s not like they could have predicted the Eagles putting up over 40. Kicking was fine there imo.

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"_ and 1" includes a lot of "basically two yards", but lets call it a 4th and 2. In the last 10 years, 3rd/4th and 2 between the opponent 5 and 10 yard lines in "normal football" situations (1st and 3rd quarter, score within 14 points) has been a 46% proposition. A conversion puts them at the Eagles 7, worth +5.6 expected points for NE. A failure gives the Eagles the ball at their own 8, worth +0.3 expected points for NE. Teams are 118/120 on FGs within that range over the last 10 years, 97.5%. Making the FG is worth 2.5 points for NE (3, minus 0.5 for expected field position on the kickoff), while a miss gives the eagles the ball at their own 20, worth -0.5 expected points for NE.

Thus, the conversion attempt is 0.46 * 5.6 + 0.54 * 0.3 = +2.7 expected points, and the FG attempt is 0.975 * 2.5 + 0.025 * -0.5 = +2.4 expected points. Small but clear edge towards going for it, and that's all team agnostic and adding an extra yard to go.

Kicking there was a bad call.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:

I know its unpopular here and we can attribute it to the bad defense and inexplicable coaching decisions, however Foles played a fantastic game. His throws were on point, and often were made while on the run. A few balls were perfectly placed along the sidelines or, simply where only his receivers could catch them. Its frustrating because he has generally looked mediocre for large stretches of his career but these last two games, he was exceptional.

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That one TD pass to Jeffery really was incredible. It looked like the ball fell straight down into his hands.

CaptainLaddie said:

Is it weird I was angrier after the 4-and-2 game than this?

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Nah. This is all gravy, really. Sucks that they didn't win, because they could have (and maybe should have), but getting legitimately *upset* about it seems a little absurd given that they've won 5, with two in recent memory.

2007, 2006, 2011...those were all worse to me because it felt like there was still something to prove.

Lol he's the long snapper, unless your LS plays another position you're gonna have both of them tied for last.

Koufax said:

Someone, ESPN?, ranked all the players on both squads from best to worst. They had Cardona ranked as the worst player on either roster.

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Mystic Merlin said:

Lol he's the long snapper, unless your LS plays another position you're gonna have both of them tied for last.

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I would have tried Cardona in the secondary over Richards.

Ralphwiggum said:

I think the only thing you can pin on the offense are the two failed red zone trips early on (and lump in the special teams fiasco and that’s two trips inside the 10 yardline that yielded 3 points).

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Those missed opportunities were huge, though. The complexion of the game changes dramatically if you spot the Patriots those 7 to 11 extra points - not just the final winning margin of eight points but who knows how Foles and the Eagles respond if they're potentially trying to overcome a deficit of two scores in the 4th quarter. It's not by any means why they lost the game, but when you have the GOAT and he had multiple weapons at his disposal ...

williams_482 said:

"_ and 1" includes a lot of "basically two yards", but lets call it a 4th and 2. In the last 10 years, 3rd/4th and 2 between the opponent 5 and 10 yard lines in "normal football" situations (1st and 3rd quarter, score within 14 points) has been a 46% proposition. A conversion puts them at the Eagles 7, worth +5.6 expected points for NE. A failure gives the Eagles the ball at their own 8, worth +0.3 expected points for NE. Teams are 118/120 on FGs within that range over the last 10 years, 97.5%. Making the FG is worth 2.5 points for NE (3, minus 0.5 for expected field position on the kickoff), while a miss gives the eagles the ball at their own 20, worth -0.5 expected points for NE.

Thus, the conversion attempt is 0.46 * 5.6 + 0.54 * 0.3 = +2.7 expected points, and the FG attempt is 0.975 * 2.5 + 0.025 * -0.5 = +2.4 expected points. Small but clear edge towards going for it, and that's all team agnostic and adding an extra yard to go.

Kicking there was a bad call.

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While the stats favor going for it, what the stats cannot tell you is the situational impact of getting 3 points versus being stopped on 4th down. It was early, and predicting the final score at that time was impossible. Sometimes the sure 3 is all you need to win the game, and perhaps BB had a bit more confidence in the defense than deserved.

The outcome made it appear to be a bad call, but I'm not sure it's quite the slam dunk bad call the numbers above indicate.

JimD said:

Those missed opportunities were huge, though. The complexion of the game changes dramatically if you spot the Patriots those 7 to 11 extra points - not just the final winning margin of eight points but who knows how Foles and the Eagles respond if they're potentially trying to overcome a deficit of two scores in the 4th quarter. It's not by any means why they lost the game, but when you have the GOAT and he had multiple weapons at his disposal ...

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I don't disagree, I just think you can't really blame the offense by pointing to the two drives it fucked up, when the defense did absolutely nothing right all night long.

CaptainLaddie said:

Is it weird I was angrier after the 4-and-2 game than this?

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No. I'm not particularly angry about the loss itself. I'm perplexed about the decision to sit Butler more than anything.

I can't be angry. Winning 49 and then going through Deflategate and coming back and winning 51 to shove it down everyone's throat makes it impossible for me to be angry at anything this team does. It is just frustrating that the defense couldn't just be shitty, which would have been enough. Instead they were epically inept, and as a result they wasted Tom absolutely shredding a great defense in historic fashion. That is what is stuck in my craw this morning. One lousy, fucking stop by the defense and they couldn't do it.

Jettisoned said:

That one TD pass to Jeffery really was incredible. It looked like the ball fell straight down into his hands.

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Philly scored five touchdowns last night. One was a Blount sledgehammer. Otherwise:

- The TD to Jeffery was both an incredible throw and an incredible catch. The coverage was right there.

- The TD on the trick play to Foles was beautiful, but illegal. Not even disputable that it was illegal. That five yards forces Philly to kick the FG. And this isn't a "well, every play there's holding" or "was that PI or not?" kind of call. This is a pre-snap, obvious, no brainer, look-they-simply-lined-up-in-an-illegal-formation-so-I-had-no-choice-but-to-throw-the-flag kind of call.


- The TD to Clement shouldn't have been a TD. It was another great throw and catch though for sure. By the time he secured the football, his left foot had come off the ground. His right foot was on the ground no problem, but then his left foot landed JUST out of bounds, just barely on the white. Clear as day. If they had ruled that incomplete and Pederson had challenged, it would never have been overturned. Very close call, but, well, it was incomplete. That was on 3rd and 6, and it would have forced Philly to kick another FG. This is now 8 points that Philly got that they shouldn't have.


- The Ertz TD late was another incredibly close call, though I think it was the right one. He fumbled just as he crossed the goal line, his arm and the ball outstretched to cross the plane.

I mean, other than the Blount TD run, every one of Philly's touchdowns was either an incredible play or shouldn't have counted (or both). They played the game on the razor's edge and basically won every 50/50 situation all game long.

Ralphwiggum said:

I can't be angry. Winning 49 and then going through Deflategate and coming back and winning 51 to shove it down everyone's throat makes it impossible for me to be angry at anything this team does. It is just frustrating that the defense couldn't just be shitty, which would have been enough. Instead they were epically inept, and as a result they wasted Tom absolutely shredding a great defense in historic fashion. That is what is stuck in my craw this morning. One lousy, fucking stop by the defense and they couldn't do it.

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This is exactly how I feel. It's odd that I am not more pissed off about a Pats SB loss. I think Brady's unreal performance helps if that makes sense?

Can someone explain the practical effect of the Eagles’ illegal formation? I understand that they didn’t have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage, and that is illegal, but what’s the big deal about it? That is to say, did the actual play unfold any differently because of the illegal formation, or are we complaining about a “his socks were too low” type penalty?

I thought the formation rules had to do with player safety, or something. The WR that was not on the LOS was still an eligible receiver, since he was on the end of the line, right?

The complaining about the illegal formation reminds me of the complaining after the Solder touchdown in the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago.

Gotta put the loss squarely on BB and Patricia.

I can see the rationale for going with the big corners, but to have Butler practicing with the first team all week, but only tell him shortly before the game he won't be playing, along with springing the start on Rowe in the same timeframe.... Just seems like poor planning/coaching.

Our running game was working in the second half. Our best bet was to try and slow the game down and keep our defense off the field as much as possible.

ngruz25 said:

Can someone explain the practical effect of the Eagles’ illegal formation? I understand that they didn’t have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage, and that is illegal, but what’s the big deal about it? That is to say, did the actual play unfold any differently because of the illegal formation, or are we complaining about a “his socks were too low” type penalty?

I thought the formation rules had to do with player safety, or something. The WR that was not on the LOS was still an eligible receiver, since he was on the end of the line, right?

The complaining about the illegal formation reminds me of the complaining after the Solder touchdown in the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago.

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It has to do with eligible/non-eligible players.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

They also turned it over deep in Pats territory early, as opposed to the Pats turning it over deep in their own territory late.

It's a knife edge.

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Yep, and think about that. Philly needed every single one of these plays to go their way in order to win the game. And they did. Add to that the Brady fumble bounced RIGHT to an Eagle player. (I remember when the Pats forced a fumble on Bradshaw in SB 46 and the ball bounced RIGHT back to Bradshaw...and they actually forced a fumble on Nicks in that game too and the Pats had SIX guys surrounding Nicks, and the ball bounced directly through the ONE opening in the ring of six Pats players RIGHT to a Giants player trailing the play)

A knife's edge for sure. Give Philly credit for absolutely going for it - if they played a standard game, they lose by a lot. But they were ballsy, they played to win in every way. They executed offensively at an incredibly high level. They got the benefit of the fumble bouncing right to their player (though the tipped INT went directly to Harmon, so maybe those cancel out). They got two TDs that shouldn't have counted.

This is why it's so so so hard to win Super Bowls. And why we should all remember that there's a reason why winning five in 16 years is just off the charts incredible.

BaseballJones said:

- The TD to Clement shouldn't have been a TD. It was another great throw and catch though for sure. By the time he secured the football, his left foot had come off the ground. His right foot was on the ground no problem, but then his left foot landed JUST out of bounds, just barely on the white. Clear as day. If they had ruled that incomplete and Pederson had challenged, it would never have been overturned. Very close call, but, well, it was incomplete. That was on 3rd and 6, and it would have forced Philly to kick another FG. This is now 8 points that Philly got that they shouldn't have.

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I'm not blaming the loss on this and not making excuses of any sort but I can't comprehend how the NFL league office or an official ruled this a catch in 2017. I know people say "well it feels like a catch and this is what the rule should be!" but if the NFL reviewed that 1,000 times during the regular season it's not a catch 1,000 times.

The fact that the NFL didn't have the stones to overturn that is amazing. When it happened, I saw one replay and left the room to get some food because it was so obviously not a catch.

ngruz25 said:

Can someone explain the practical effect of the Eagles’ illegal formation? I understand that they didn’t have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage, and that is illegal, but what’s the big deal about it? That is to say, did the actual play unfold any differently because of the illegal formation, or are we complaining about a “his socks were too low” type penalty?

I thought the formation rules had to do with player safety, or something. The WR that was not on the LOS was still an eligible receiver, since he was on the end of the line, right?

The complaining about the illegal formation reminds me of the complaining after the Solder touchdown in the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago.

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It didn't matter.

ngruz25 said:

Can someone explain the practical effect of the Eagles’ illegal formation? I understand that they didn’t have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage, and that is illegal, but what’s the big deal about it? That is to say, did the actual play unfold any differently because of the illegal formation, or are we complaining about a “his socks were too low” type penalty?

I thought the formation rules had to do with player safety, or something. The WR that was not on the LOS was still an eligible receiver, since he was on the end of the line, right?

The complaining about the illegal formation reminds me of the complaining after the Solder touchdown in the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago.

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It had no practical effect on the play but it is a very basic rule that is never allowed to just slide by. In a regular season game that penalty is called 100% of the time, my assumption is the ref didn't want to insert himself into the game at that time.

Leaving the Butler issue to the other thread, the single 'moment' they lost the game was when they went up by 1 in the fourth with around 9 minutes left and they could not get off the field, giving up a seven minute drive and a TD.

In a game where they were out played all night and in a game where Philly consistently was able to simply execute more, when they had finally clawed their way to a lead, they absolutely needed a stop and couldn't get it.

That killed them. Patricia and Belichick had had all night at that point to figure it out and they had nothing.

wiffleballhero said:

Leaving the Butler issue to the other thread, the single 'moment' they lost the game was when they went up by 1 in the fourth with around 9 minutes left and they could not get off the field, giving up a seven minute drive and a TD.

In a game where they were out played all night and in a game where Philly consistently was able to simply execute more, when they had finally clawed their way to a lead, they absolutely needed a stop and couldn't get it.

That killed them. Patricia and Belichick had had all night at that point to figure it out and they had nothing.

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Philly converted 2 big 4th downs and we failed on ours. Story of the game in my mind.

I posted this in the Butler thread, but the following link has a different take on the "illegal formation" play:

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/2/4/16972192/nick-foles-touchdown-illegal-formation

ngruz25 said:

Can someone explain the practical effect of the Eagles’ illegal formation? I understand that they didn’t have 7 guys on the line of scrimmage, and that is illegal, but what’s the big deal about it? That is to say, did the actual play unfold any differently because of the illegal formation, or are we complaining about a “his socks were too low” type penalty?

I thought the formation rules had to do with player safety, or something. The WR that was not on the LOS was still an eligible receiver, since he was on the end of the line, right?

The complaining about the illegal formation reminds me of the complaining after the Solder touchdown in the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago.

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Yeah, the plays were similar. Technical line up rules that officials miss sometimes.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

My assumption is that they just missed it.

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The article below has a GIF of Jeffrey checking in with the ref to make sure he was good for being on the line in spite of him being like a yard or so off. So it's likely the ref "cleared" him.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/2/4/16972192/nick-foles-touchdown-illegal-formation

kenneycb said:

The article below has a GIF of Jeffrey checking in with the ref to make sure he was good for being on the line in spite of him being like a yard or so off. So it's likely the ref "cleared" him.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/2/4/16972192/nick-foles-touchdown-illegal-formation

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"Is it okay if I break this rule? We're cool, right?"

Mystic Merlin said:

Which had nothing to do with the outcome of the play.

I have to say I didn't find myself thinking 'if only Lewis had played in more goal line' when mulling over the reasons for this loss. The back usage was fine.

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Have you not watched each guy run from scrimmage?

kenneycb said:

The article below has a GIF of Jeffrey checking in with the ref to make sure he was good for being on the line in spite of him being like a yard or so off. So it's likely the ref "cleared" him.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/2/4/16972192/nick-foles-touchdown-illegal-formation

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That article's whole premise is basically "Its not an illegal formation because the refs fucked up".

Its nonsense.

I'd like to know why defense never adjusted and stopped trying to rush Foles when it was clear it was not working both because the Philly interior line was really good and both lines were allowed to hold at will.

Would have liked to see some 3 man rushes and force Foles to put the ball into tight windows instead of regularly rushing 5 and leaving the middle of the field open.

Guess if you refuse to play your regular starting CB it limits your flexibility in coverage packages.

Captaincoop said:

"Is it okay if I break this rule? We're cool, right?"

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This is the definition of nitpicking. As noted earlier, if Jeffrey checked with the official and the official said no, you're not cool, Jeffrey would have moved up. Can you imagine if Jeffrey had checked with the official, official told him he was good, then the official throws a flag on the play for Jeffrey being off the LOS? This is a non-issue IMO

NortheasternPJ said:

I'm not blaming the loss on this and not making excuses of any sort but I can't comprehend how the NFL league office or an official ruled this a catch in 2017. I know people say "well it feels like a catch and this is what the rule should be!" but if the NFL reviewed that 1,000 times during the regular season it's not a catch 1,000 times.

The fact that the NFL didn't have the stones to overturn that is amazing. When it happened, I saw one replay and left the room to get some food because it was so obviously not a catch.

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I'm with you in all aspects of this post. I am emphatically NOT blaming the refs for the loss - the Pats' mistakes in the first half offensively that cost them 4 points (and really, probably more) and their utter inability to stop Philly were what killed them.

BUT it's 100% true that neither the Foles' TD catch, NOR the Clement TD catch should have counted. One wasn't even a judgment call - just a simple enforcement of the rules. The other was clearly, upon replay, not a catch. I could not believe that held up after seeing a definitive replay.

As for the ref "clearing" the WR...well, I don't blame Philly for this - the WR did the right thing by checking. But the ref got it wrong. Objectively wrong.