I haven't seen anything that confirms Castillo's contract won't count against the cap next year. I've seen a few sites that confirms it does, but I'm not sure how accurate spotrac.com is on MLB salary. Re your comment to me, I agree Castillo makes more sense than Brentz in any scenario that doesn't have JBJ and Ben10 on the team. Right now, his role would be either DH or LF vs lefties, depending on if Hanley is playing 1b or not.I’m sure I’ve read reports that the CBT loophole he was grandfathered into got closed, but I’m unclear if that meant his salary would count against the cap if he ever got called up again (even if removed from the 40-man afterward), or if when he’s assigned to Pawtucket this March his salary will count against the cap for next year’s calculations despite not being on the 40-man. Very confusing.
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How much would he have made in arbitration? If you can get him for close to the minimum or a little more, why not? Hell, maybe you can stash him in AAA like the Orioles did with Pedro Alvarez last year. He made $2.8 mil last year and was released.The only way I could see a convincing case being made for Adams here is under that condition that he could actually play LF.
I've seen estimates stating he'd of got $4.6m. Which on that note probably doesn't bode well for the FA 1B this winter behind Hosmer/Santana/Morrison.How much would he have made in arbitration? If you can get him for close to the minimum or a little more, why not? Hell, maybe you can stash him in AAA like the Orioles did with Pedro Alvarez last year. He made $2.8 mil last year and was released.
Why is that?The only way I could see a convincing case being made for Adams here is under that condition that he could actually play LF.
The only reason Adams would even be worth consideration at 1B is under the assumption reach that it would be accompanying a JD Martinez signing (I'm currently eliminating the Stanton possibility there), which in turn would help balance the massive amount of incoming salary. Otherwise there is literally no chance here that DD cheaps out to an extent where Adams ends up being the solution guy over the other free agents out there.Why is that?
I ask because I don’t see what argument would put Adams in LF rather than 1B. What’s your logic?
Really? Got any evidence for that?Adams was traded on May 20 for a 19-year-old non-prospect. Before that, he put up a 95 wRC+ on the strength of a .419 BABIP and striking out in 32.1% of his PAs. With bad defense. Out of the league is hyperbolic, sure, but no one considered him a starting first baseman.
Why would you be shocked?
And yes, this is where Brentz may actually be an asset. He's not very likely to be a game-changing one, but there was enough to like about his AAA performance (.271/.334/.539 in 450 AB) that he should definitely remain in the picture. He's not the only way to solve this section, but this is where DDski has the most flexibility to piece together above-average production a la 2013's Nava/Gomes/Carp.
Posted previously, but Brentz was also taking reps at 1B last season: http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/08/scouting-scratch-potential-sept-call.htmlBrentz should fill the Chris Young role nicely. He has a much better approach vs L than R. I could see him giving us 200 PA of solid production if he's platooned correctly. If JD Martinez is signed and one of JBJ/Ben10 is traded, Brentz no longer has a role on the team though.
Christopher Smith maintains that under the new CBA Castillo's grandfathered (non)payroll status is gone for good if Castillo ever goes back on the 40-man roster.But it’s been well-documented that Farrell didn’t think Castillo would be an asset over what Young, and then Davis as well, brought to the club (for less money). I think that assessment was the deciding factor, given how DDski shitcanned $50MM because Farrell didn’t think Panda was an asset to the team over Marrero and Holt, and then didn’t even pour a cup of September coffee for Brentz, who had only led the IL in homers. So yeah, I still think it’s fair to blame Farrell.
Can we please stop lumping Hoser in with Martinez and Stanton? He's been a league average hitter in 2 of his last 4 seasons and just so happened to have his biggest year at the plate in his first free agent contract year. Betting on him being his 2017 self would be idiotic, and even if he was his 2017 production going forward, that makes him a good, not great first baseman. He would not constitute "a splash" this winter, and if Dombrowski thinks he would, he should be fired immediately.Someone said it earlier on the board, which thread I'm not sure, that DD needs to make a splash. I think that means one of three things: Hosmer, JD Martinez or Stanton.
This nickname should stickCan we please stop lumping Hoser in with Martinez and Stanton? He's been a league average hitter in 2 of his last 4 seasons and just so happened to have his biggest year at the plate in his first free agent contract year. Betting on him being his 2017 self would be idiotic, and even if he was his 2017 production going forward, that makes him a good, not great first baseman. He would not constitute "a splash" this winter, and if Dombrowski thinks he would, he should be fired immediately.
I wish I had done that on purpose.This nickname should stick
Farrell was absolutely right on the bolded. He was likely right on Castillo as well.I’m sure I’ve read reports that the CBT loophole he was grandfathered into got closed, but I’m unclear if that meant his salary would count against the cap if he ever got called up again (even if removed from the 40-man afterward), or if when he’s assigned to Pawtucket this March his salary will count against the cap for next year’s calculations despite not being on the 40-man. Very confusing.
Anyway, I expect that Cora will be able to break Rusney out of RI, should that be what he thinks is best for the team as a whole. If the Sox need a bench bat to platoon with Beni in CF and also play LF as a defensive replacement for JDM, I hope they give Rusney another chance. The Sox are going over the tax threshold in each of the next two seasons, regardless.
But it’s been well-documented that Farrell didn’t think Castillo would be an asset over what Young, and then Davis as well, brought to the club (for less money). I think that assessment was the deciding factor, given how DDski shitcanned $50MM because Farrell didn’t think Panda was an asset to the team over Marrero and Holt, and then didn’t even pour a cup of September coffee for Brentz, who had only led the IL in homers. So yeah, I still think it’s fair to blame Farrell.
Judge, Stanton and Sanchez are a combined 0-13 career against him, good call.JDM has been the target anyway, but if there’s any direct response DD makes to the Stanton signing, it’s a cheap deal for Joe Smith. RH hitters had a .234 wOBA against him last year. That was 23rd among MLB relievers.
Brentz as a hitter is fine, but he's a pure corner outfielder and probably a LF only in Fenway?Let's see what we have in Bryce Brentz though?
Sure, but that's not really an issue when you have three guys out there capable of manning center. Even if they trade JBJ for something, they've still got two of those.Brentz as a hitter is fine, but he's a pure corner outfielder and probably a LF only in Fenway?
He's on a good contract, so doubtful.I am not sure if the Brewers are trying to contend in 2018, but what would it take to get Thames from them? He can play first base and occasionally the outfield.
He had a good year but after April, he struggled quite a bit on and off and has a lot of trouble vs lefties. Even his great September was padded by a 447 bapib. I'd stay away.I am not sure if the Brewers are trying to contend in 2018, but what would it take to get Thames from them? He can play first base and occasionally the outfield.
I fail to see how most of the post is defensible.The prospective contracts tied to the Sox (JD, Hosmer) have a strong whiff of turning into Crawford 2.0 deals. I would leave the OF alone and hope the new coaching staff can help them and Xander bounce back and add some power to the lineup.
I would be happy to see DD go get Miggy as a salary saving deal for Detroit; the Sox send a lottery ticket, and Detroit sends enough money to bring down the AAV and reduce Boston’s exposure in the back end. I don’t know where the line is that Detroit sees enough savings and Boston sees the risk mitigated enough thatthey can release him at the end. The big risk is that if he’s cooked now, but Miggy is a legitimate HOFer as opposed to other players who’ve gotten the “potential” tag when we’ve looked at signing players long term (thinking AGon & Pedroia).
If that doesn’t work , just re-sign Moreland for 1B. I’d also like to see a bit more depth so that people who should be on the DL aren’t in the lineup dragging the offense down for longer than said replacement.
Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
I agree with you, except the Tigers would need to package two of Castellanos, Fulmer, Norris and Greene for us to take Miggy.The prospective contracts tied to the Sox (JD, Hosmer) have a strong whiff of turning into Crawford 2.0 deals. I would leave the OF alone and hope the new coaching staff can help them and Xander bounce back and add some power to the lineup.
I would be happy to see DD go get Miggy as a salary saving deal for Detroit; the Sox send a lottery ticket, and Detroit sends enough money to bring down the AAV and reduce Boston’s exposure in the back end. I don’t know where the line is that Detroit sees enough savings and Boston sees the risk mitigated enough thatthey can release him at the end. The big risk is that if he’s cooked now, but Miggy is a legitimate HOFer as opposed to other players who’ve gotten the “potential” tag when we’ve looked at signing players long term (thinking AGon & Pedroia).
If that doesn’t work , just re-sign Moreland for 1B. I’d also like to see a bit more depth so that people who should be on the DL aren’t in the lineup dragging the offense down for longer than said replacement.
Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
Well, our primary need is at DH if Hanley can play 1BBrentz as a hitter is fine, but he's a pure corner outfielder and probably a LF only in Fenway?
This push on Moreland is nearly as a baffling as the push for Eric Hosmer. Perhaps more so.I'd imagine the Tigers would want to see what Miggy's back looks like this spring before deciding to deal him. They may find a taker for 50% of his contract and a bag of balls this winter, but if he comes back and looks like himself again, they should be able to get significantly more for him.
I don't like the looks of any of the free agent first basemen on a long contract. One of Morrison, Duda, or Moreland will be available for cheap on a one year deal if Martinez doesn't sign. You just hope you pick the one who happens to have a big year.
That's what I've been saying. He'll be lucky to get anything more than he did last year since he's really just a platoon option only. The deeper into the off-season this goes, the antsier some of the bottom tier guys are going to get if they want to play for a good team. Someone is going to get a serious bargain for a much better hitter than Moreland.This push on Moreland is nearly as a baffling as the push for Eric Hosmer. Perhaps more so.
The average 1B in the MLB has a wRC+ of 113 and wOBA of .345 in 2017. Mitch Moreland ranked 27th and 28th for both (out of 34, min 400 PA -- roughly 20th percentile of starting 1B), having nearly 15 points lower wRC+ and 20 points lower wOBA. There's no argument that Mitch was underperforming (injury aside); last year was right around his career average rates.
While I might not agree with it, I can understand an argument for not signing JD Martinez for what it's going to take to land him. And I'm 100% on board with not giving Hosmer anything close to what he's asking (I might even hesitate at half of it). But I cannot wrap my head around the argument some people are making for just waiting until next winter to address the power shortage in the lineup.Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
You aren't resigning Sale at 12.5 million a year. I don't care how much he loves it here. He'll get his 30 million a year, and if Price doesn't opt out, it won't be in Boston. And since Price was underwhelming in 2016 and hurt most of 2017, I see no reason to even hope he'll be opting out.Why is Sale not coming back?
He seems to love it here and if you can carry Sale at his current rate and go dump another $50M/yr on JDM and Hosmer, you can float his extension in lieu of it.
Where did I say we would be able to resign Sale for $12.5M?You aren't resigning Sale at 12.5 million a year. I don't care how much he loves it here. He'll get his 30 million a year, and if Price doesn't opt out, it won't be in Boston. And since Price was underwhelming in 2016 and hurt most of 2017, I see no reason to even hope he'll be opting out.
Its not so much that Sale “wouldn’t” sign here, it is more that his price tag is going to exceed what David Price is making on this team now, and having two of that type of contract in your starting rotation leaves zero wiggle room for the rest of the roster. All of the B’s are going to start getting expensive as well.He seems to love it here and if you can carry Sale at his current rate and go dump another $50M/yr on JDM and Hosmer, you can float his extension in lieu of it.
But giving JDM $30M does leave them wiggle room?Its not so much that Sale “wouldn’t” sign here, it is more that his price tag is going to exceed what David Price is making on this team now, and having two of that type of contract in your starting rotation leaves zero wiggle room for the rest of the roster. All of the B’s are going to start getting expensive as well.
This logic all changes if Price opts out, of course.
You replied while I was, but Sale isn’t just getting $30M. Its going to be more than that. He’s probably more on the $37.5M side of your equation, leaving the $30M for everything else this team is going to have to address in short order.Sale $30M extension leaves them $37.5M to go after Harper or Machado or whomever, or start extending some kids. If they’re going to go over, I’m not sure they care all that much about by how much, but that shouldn’t mean throwing your hands up and say ‘fuck it, let’s blow it all now and who cares if it’s pissing money away?’
Of course you’re not extending him at $12.5M per. But there’s a fair chance we learn of someone’s extension (Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, maybe even Pomeranz) in April. It would help explain this inertia and DD’s pleas for “patience.”You aren't resigning Sale at 12.5 million a year. I don't care how much he loves it here. He'll get his 30 million a year, and if Price doesn't opt out, it won't be in Boston. And since Price was underwhelming in 2016 and hurt most of 2017, I see no reason to even hope he'll be opting out.
Again we’re replying around each other and no, it doesn’t, which is why I am not really for a JDM pickup. That’s too much money tied up in a non-franchise type player, IMO.But giving JDM $30M does leave them wiggle room?
If they're extending any of those guys, why would they wait until April (unless the negotiations actually take that long)?Of course you’re not extending him at $12.5M per. But there’s a fair chance we learn of someone’s extension (Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, maybe even Pomeranz) in April. It would help explain this inertia and DD’s pleas for “patience.”
Announcing it in April means it doesn’t affect this year’s AAV. I’m not clear on all the details, but it’s better for luxury tax purposes.If they're extending any of those guys, why would they wait until April (unless the negotiations actually take that long)?
I believe they closed that loophole with the last CBA didn't they?Announcing it in April means it doesn’t affect this year’s AAV.
One reason to speculate they’ve extended Sale but haven’t announced it yet is that he’s reached out to work with 19-year-old Jay Groome in spring training.