While $20m is a hefty price to pay, I wonder what kind of return a team could get for Otani. It’s not like the Mariners are going to be very competitive.
Going to LAAA in 2018 - Shohei Ohtani
- Thread starter Tokyo Sox
- Start date
I imagine any team that signs then immediately trades ohtani will never sign an international FA again. Can deals like this have a NTC?
Also, it seems that Ohtani being able to "break the mold" is the most important thing for him. I bet he could suck for a whole season as a hitter in Seattle, SF, San Diego and LAA. If he wasnt performing with the Yankees, the media would jump on him and he would be relegated to a traditional starter role in no time.
edit: Also, no mater where he signs, anyone who comes over from Japan just so he can play baseball at the highest possible level(not worried about money) and politely tells the Yankees "I would never play for you, no matter how great your presentation is" is a solid guy in my book. I hope he becomes a superstar.
Also, it seems that Ohtani being able to "break the mold" is the most important thing for him. I bet he could suck for a whole season as a hitter in Seattle, SF, San Diego and LAA. If he wasnt performing with the Yankees, the media would jump on him and he would be relegated to a traditional starter role in no time.
edit: Also, no mater where he signs, anyone who comes over from Japan just so he can play baseball at the highest possible level(not worried about money) and politely tells the Yankees "I would never play for you, no matter how great your presentation is" is a solid guy in my book. I hope he becomes a superstar.
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For the sake of baseball, we all want him to become a superstar. It's even better when players aren't doing it for the money and far easier to like them. That's my problem with Bryce Harper. I can't find a way to like the guy no matter how good he is and part of me does not want the Yankees to go after him.
Eh, Ohtani could be the cure to what ails them. The offense is pretty good already. Same with the pen. They need starting pitching and Ohtani is a big step in the right direction.
Yeah, this is a deep lineup. Sign mid-level starter, maybe a closer off a good year like Greg Holland and they definitely are in the discussion for a Wild Card just this year.
Yeah if King Felix is healthy and they get even #3 level consistent production out of him they’re most likely a playoff team. Personally I think he’ll be exposed as a hitter - from the video and scouting reports I’ve seen, he’s probably not going to stick; he’s fast but his contact isn’t great and his swing is long, I’m not convinced he will be able to handle the higher level of pitching - but I also think ‘Sure, we will let you DH’ is a sacrifice to get him to sign. He has legit ace level talent, fastball/split/slider and can hit triple digits when he wants to. I don’t expect the hitting experiment to last long, but it’s worth it. And slot him in with Felix and Paxton, let Leake eat innings and fill the five slot and they are a top 4-5 team.
Is he being fingered as a DH because he doesn't have a position or just to reduce injury from playing the field? You'd think he'd be a good enough athlete to play somewhere in the field, though I suppose practice time would be an issue.
Yeah, Keith Law says he is a definite 80 speed and of course we know his arm, but he has not actually played the OF since 2013.
I do think if it's SEA, it would make way more sense for him to play OF over DH even with the extra burden, Nelson Cruz in 2018 in RF in SEA is something not even the Mets would try.
Seattle is the only small market AL team on the Weat Coast. I'm guessing thats where he ends up now. Boy, Cashman must have really blown it in his presentation. Whats the difference in flying time direct to Tokyo from NY vs Seattle. 90 minutes?
That said I am relieved he will not be in the AL East with another team. I'm kind of thinking he wants a low pressure environment and a pitchers park which may also help a hitter who relies on balls dropping in rather than going over fences, but its all guess work.
The Japanese endorsements are going to be there no matter where he goes, so long as he does well, so maybe he knows what he is doing
That said I am relieved he will not be in the AL East with another team. I'm kind of thinking he wants a low pressure environment and a pitchers park which may also help a hitter who relies on balls dropping in rather than going over fences, but its all guess work.
The Japanese endorsements are going to be there no matter where he goes, so long as he does well, so maybe he knows what he is doing
I would not want my star pitcher throwing darts from the OF a couple of days after throwing 100 pitches, or on a throw day. Plus the toll on the legs. DH gets him AB's probably 3 days a week. Cruz could be traded if he is too bad in the OF 3 days a week
Not sure if you’re joking or not but it’s more like 4 hours difference. Short of a Tupolev, not sure how you’re making up NY to Seattle in 90 mins.
that exemplifies why he doesnt want to play there. no better example than that.
I am sure he is very comfortable with his decision after that display. that could be his problem for his entire yankee career, or the few times he passes through nyc. i am surprised the crazy media doesnt scare off more players.
I am sure he is very comfortable with his decision after that display. that could be his problem for his entire yankee career, or the few times he passes through nyc. i am surprised the crazy media doesnt scare off more players.
Honestly, it doesn't just sound like it's not about money. It sounds like he just wants to live in an area that he likes. It cannot be about proximity to Japan because he's not going to be flying there on off-days no matter where he plays. Small market translates to someone convincing him that reporters won't be up his ass as much. Am I missing something else that SM teams offer?
He’s obviously not flying home on off days, but if he has family back in Japan that would presumably come to watch him play, the flight would likely be a consideration. And there’s also a consideration for at least proximity from home - he is a 23 yo kid, maybe being halfway around the globe in a huge city is something he’s not feeling he’s ready for.
He's got a bit of Cano in him apparently. Wants to be the big dog in a smaller market that doesn't have the media or the pressure to win.
That's fine, and I hope he succeeds (unless it's in Seattle).
As far as the Mariners being competitive, there are a lot of assumptions above. If King Felix is good again ... if they get a good reliever ... if there new offensive stars (Gamel, Haniger, Zunino) hit above their norms again ...
Also, of note, Mariners fans in general turned on Ichiro his final year or two there. Thought he hit too many singles and didn't think he did enough to help the team. Whether that was somewhat fair or not is possible, but to turn on the one guy that made your shit team interesting for 10 years is something.
That's fine, and I hope he succeeds (unless it's in Seattle).
As far as the Mariners being competitive, there are a lot of assumptions above. If King Felix is good again ... if they get a good reliever ... if there new offensive stars (Gamel, Haniger, Zunino) hit above their norms again ...
Also, of note, Mariners fans in general turned on Ichiro his final year or two there. Thought he hit too many singles and didn't think he did enough to help the team. Whether that was somewhat fair or not is possible, but to turn on the one guy that made your shit team interesting for 10 years is something.
That's my point, though. If this is true and that's why he is ruling out non-West Coast teams unless it's with his buddy Yu, then I'd begin to question his makeup. If you're 23 and need to be near mommy and daddy then I'm not sure coming to the MLB is the right decision. Boston or Houston would seem like a perfect destination for someone looking to be on a competitive team with unbelievable resources and a great fanbase. Instead, he wants to go to Seattle or the Angels? Huh. Okay kid, enjoy getting coddled.
King Felix just needs to be healthy. He didn’t lose his ability. That’s not a huge assumption. Their bullpen was 13th in the league in ERA, which was better than Houston. I’m not sure why one wouldn’t assume that the young players wouldn’t be able to maintain, since none of them went crazy and Seagar had a down year he should be able to bounce back from. If the get Ohtani, you’re telling me they’re not better than the Twins were this year? They won’t win the division unless the Astros have injuries, but they certainly can contend for a wild card and I’d say they’d be a favorite for one.
And sorry, what does “(unless it’s in Seattle)” even mean? Did you get mugged at the Space Needle or something?
Cano went to Seattle because of the money. I’m pretty sure he would have played 2nd base for Brooklyn little league if they offered him more money.
Maybe it’s not ‘I need to be near mommy and daddy’. Or be coddled. Maybe it’s ‘im taking them into consideration and trying to accommodate them as well’. Maybe it’s also that there’s almost zero difference in what he can make monetarily so why not spend three years getting acclimated with a close distance to home, in a smaller market in a new country, then reassess.
These people live lives. Boston or NY is halfway around the world, a fucking shitshow for privacy and the weather sucks. Houston is a flood zone. Maybe, just maybe, he looks at this as a job and not a passion or calling? Maybe he’s a bulldog when he toes the rubber and otherwise kind of reclusive?
It amazes me how we read into decisions like this and make judgments on people’s makeup or psyche, while forgetting they are human beings. He could have just had a really nice king crab dinner in Seattle and likes to watch them toss fish. Why does that matter?
He's moving countries and cultures. He's in a position to go wherever he wants, and this is what he wants. We should all be so lucky. Plenty of great athletes prefer being near home or by loved ones or a million other things that might not make your hypothetical checklist of how you'd act if you could throw 100.
His velocity has dropped almost every year, from 98.5 as a rookie in 2007 to 91.1 in 2016 and 2017, and that is even with the mile or two bump everyone else got this year under the new measuring system. He is not Jared Weaver yet, but he is moving in that direction.
Seattle makes geographic sense if it's them, it is a smaller northern city, like Sapporo where he has been living (5th biggest city in Japan but a quarter the size of Tokyo).
Also a smaller team with lower expectations, he could theoretically be the person to lead them to whatever they win, as he did in 2016 when he was the almost unanimous MVP and his team won the title (at 22). Of course, this hasn't worked so well for Mike Trout so far.
Also a smaller team with lower expectations, he could theoretically be the person to lead them to whatever they win, as he did in 2016 when he was the almost unanimous MVP and his team won the title (at 22). Of course, this hasn't worked so well for Mike Trout so far.
Yeah that’s true, but not all pitchers rely purely on velocity. Anyway If his shoulder is healthy, you don’t think that comes back a bit? Regardless, if we assume NYY, Sox, Astro’s and Indians for four of the spots (which never works out anyway), who you got over Seattle if they get him and Felix is healthy, even if not vintage?
There is no way the Red Sox or Yankees give him a year as a DH if he ends up struggling for the first 2-3 months, which is possible. Seattle is an amazing city. There are many people that "if money were no object" would rather live in Seattle, San Diego, or San Francisco than Boston, NYC or Houston.
New York and Boston media and fan bases are notorious for being huge pains in the ass. Giancarlo Stanton pretty resoundingly declared "fuck all of that" and, while I am sure some of it is the weather, I am sure some if it not wanting to live with all of that nonsense. Some people perform better and live happier lives when they aren't criticized for every wrong move.
One of the best parts of this whole sage is how Ohtani to the Yankees was such a "done deal" in so many people's eyes because it made "the most sense". Good for this 23 year old guy, sacrificing millions of dollars to come over to a foreign country to play a game he loves, to know exactly what he wants, how he wants it, and to not let anyone tell him where he should sign or why he should sign there. It seems like he has either surrounded himself with people who are willing to advocate for what he wants, or has the savvy to do so himself.
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The Rangers, the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Giants are all teams that have loads of resources, recent success and pretty good fanbases. In the end, Ohtani realized he can play for whoever he wants to, and, after reviewing all of the possible landing spots, decided the Yankees and Red Sox were not incredibly desirable places to play. That doesnt mean he needs to be near mommy and daddy or loves to be coddled. Just that he recognized some cons of playing in those markets and chose to avoid them for greener pastures.
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Hard to say, there's still a ways to go before even spring training, but maybe the White Sox will be the next team whose young talent base blossoms before we thought it would. Twins are trying to sign an ace, they will be interesting if they do. Rangers?
The White Sox are selling off. Which ace are the Twins signing? Rangers I could see bringing Darvish back and making a few small moves and be in the mix. All up in the air obviously, but at the same time that goes for everyone. On paper I’d view the Mariners as a top 5 team with Ohtani and a couple small additions.
Ohtani playing for a competitive Mariners team would be great for baseball. Seattle seems like a passionate fanbase and the Mariners should be a big part of that. It would be good to see him help the Rangers and Padres be competitive also but I think Seattle seems to have more upside for MLB.
I know this may be piling on, but it has always made me crazy when people speculate on why athletes choose what they do. Saying Ohtani “wants to be closer to mommy and daddy”, or an above post that “Bryce Harper is only about the money”... look, for MANY players, just being on the roster of one of 30 MLB teams is making it and accomplishing their dream, even while they may not feel allegiance to one team, or even necessarily to the team that drafted them.
If they can play pro ball, AND meet other criteria, doesn’t mean they “hate the game” or “aren’t interested in winning”. Most pro players have giant egos and may believe they are the missing piece that can LEAD a team to winning. Or whatever. Personally, I find sports far more interesting when good players are evenly distributed throughout the league rather than constantly going to “perennial winners”, and I say that as a fan of the Sox who are definitely one of the “haves” in that equation.
If they can play pro ball, AND meet other criteria, doesn’t mean they “hate the game” or “aren’t interested in winning”. Most pro players have giant egos and may believe they are the missing piece that can LEAD a team to winning. Or whatever. Personally, I find sports far more interesting when good players are evenly distributed throughout the league rather than constantly going to “perennial winners”, and I say that as a fan of the Sox who are definitely one of the “haves” in that equation.
It's whining and sour grapes from those people. Plain and simple.
There was no presentation. He cut down to a short list that would be able to give a presentation.
It's not sour grapes. Everyone is 100% correct that we should never diminish what is important to individuals and we should all be so fortunate to be able to pick and choose based on our own personal criteria. I'm only bringing up the makeup issues because of confusion caused by all of the conflicting reports surfacing for what his priorities are. If a player is ruling out big cities and big media markets without even experiencing them or giving them a shot, it's odd to me. If he joins Seattle, it's like saying "I want to come to the MLB to compete on the smallest stage possible while there." I take it all back if he chooses LAD or CHC.
The fact that LA and Chicago are on his short list already disproves your hypothesis. He didn't want east coast teams (or eastern half of the US, really). That's the factor, not a fear of pitching in NY. The New York Daily News headline is disgraceful.
That's not what I'm saying. I'll step back from my point here since I'm clearly not convincing anyone but my only point is that it could say something about him (good or bad) to not even walk into Fenway or around Boston to see a town that lives and breathes based on its sports teams or to check out Houston who just won a World Series or to grow into a young core with the Yankees.
Yes, and you're right. When I made my posts last night the stories were not just about West Coast bias. There was also a focus on small market teams + Yu Darvish potential. As it looks clearer that this is only about West Coast, the small market comments that Cashman made seem less and less important.
I respect the maturity to know what he does and doesn't want. He doesn't feel the need to be wined and dined and made a bunch of promises. He's getting to play in the majors. He'll visit and pitch in all those cities and stadiums. He knows what he wants, and has the talent and ability to dictate his own terms. Good for him. We should all be so lucky.
I'm just glad that this wasn't the process when Sabathia was first a free agent, because he had zero interest in coming to NY before their ability to offer a huge deal plus their presentation plus an optout after a few years if he didn't like it there won him over, and now when he is a FA again, he doesn't seem interested in going anywhere else. .
I don't think anyone posted the final list of the teams that Ohtani is still considering, so here it is:
Jim Bowden @Jim_BowdenSXM 7h7 hours ago
Shohei Ohtani is considering only these teams: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Rangers and Cubs. There are NO other teams that are still in it according to sources.
Jim Bowden @Jim_BowdenSXM 7h7 hours ago
Shohei Ohtani is considering only these teams: Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Rangers and Cubs. There are NO other teams that are still in it according to sources.
Yeah, when even the Padres are on the list, they have to really be questioning themselves.
The Cubs being on the list makes me a bit surprised that the Red Sox aren't. Just to get a tour and presentation, at least.
I think the answer is actually pretty simple. He's looking for as close a proximity to his home as possible while also weighing Japanese population within those cities.
Edit: Posted the wrong map and don't have time to dig it up again at work. The list of top cities for Japenese population when you pull out non-baseball cities is Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Chicago was high on the list in 2000 (9th), so is likely still near the top, too.
So his list of finalists appears to be well correlated with a combination of proximity to the Pacific and larger Japanese ethnic populations.
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