Should the Red Sox be planning to bring back Buchholz in 2017?

Snodgrass'Muff

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Holy shit, have we not learned our lesson on Buchholz yet? In no way, shape or form should he be on the team next year, let alone be referred to as a "high quality option".
I didn't want to clutter up the Moncada thread further, so I'm using this to kick off a new topic.

While I hate to make an argument that works against my position in that thread, I'd be remiss to simply let this pass without addressing it. There are plenty of reasons to want Buchholz back in Boston next year and the free agent market for starting pitching can serve as exhibits A, B, C and D in making that case.

Beyond that, the work he has done with Bannister is encouraging enough to at least hope his recent results are for real, and his history of up and down performance means you are at least likely to get some excellent pitching out of him over the course of the 2017 season. At 13.5 million, that's a nice use of a roster spot for someone who would essentially be serving as rotation insurance.

Honestly, I can't wrap my head around the case for not retaining him.
 

soxhop411

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The pitching market is absolutely barren this offseason. If the sox were to decline his option he is almost guaranteed to get paid more than 13.5MM. even if the sox don't want him they should still pick up the option and the trade him since there will be a healthy market for his services.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think the only case to be made for not retaining him is the emotional one from fans fed up with the Jekyll and Hyde act. I highly doubt Dombrowski is going to act emotionally, particularly when he a) hasn't been subjected to the full history of Buchholz the way we as fans have, and b) he understands the value of that one-year option even if Buchholz may not directly figure into his plans for the Red Sox in 2017.

No doubt Dombrowski listened to offers for him at the deadline. There were rumors that teams were surprised at the high asking price at the time. That was at Buchholz's absolute nadir this season. That he's bounced back with relatively solid performances out of the bullpen and in the rotation since then should only increase interest.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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You need a guy in the system who can be your sixth starter is someone goes down. That's especially true at this precise moment in time given some uncertainty about Wright -- both his shoulder and his effectiveness.

Without Clay, that guy for us is either Owens or Kelly at the moment. Kopech is still 20.

Is there a guy out there that can fill that role that can be signed for something better than 1/14 and who also has shown that he can pitch out of the bullpen if necessary? Seems doubtful I think.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I think the only case to be made for not retaining him is the emotional one from fans fed up with the Jekyll and Hyde act. I highly doubt Dombrowski is going to act emotionally, particularly when he a) hasn't been subjected to the full history of Buchholz the way we as fans have, and b) he understands the value of that one-year option even if Buchholz may not directly figure into his plans for the Red Sox in 2017.

No doubt Dombrowski listened to offers for him at the deadline. There were rumors that teams were surprised at the high asking price at the time. That was at Buchholz's absolute nadir this season. That he's bounced back with relatively solid performances out of the bullpen and in the rotation since then should only increase interest.
I'm quite certain that Dombrowski is aware of the Jekyll and Hyde act he has played his entire career. Because he wasn't employed by the team doesn't mean he hasn't been paying attention.

I fully understand that the pitching market sucks for next season. But counting on Clay for anything isn't even a "fool me once" type scenario. It's a fool me seven times situation.

If you want to convert him to reliever full time, sure, I'll walk back "no way, shape or form". But he shouldn't be counted on even as a sixth starter. Barring injury you can't slot him into the rotation and for the role of next man up, you need reliability. High floor, not necessarily high ceiling. Inning eater. And he's not that. Bannister is not a whisperer and Clay has shown plenty enough of stretches pitching well to suggest there's no correlation there. It's wish casting.

Take advantage of the market. Pick up his option and trade him for a reliever to some club that won't be a contender and can gamble that he has a good year and nets them more at the deadline. It's an extremely high probability that if you count on him as some kind of contingency plan as a sixth starter, that eight weeks into the season you're in the same boat looking for someone to replace him.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Who is the sixth starter next year, then? And why are they a better bet than Buchholz?

Your insistence that his work with Bannister being a real change is wish casting suggests that you don't realize that pitching mechanics change over time for a lot of pitchers, but I know you are aware of this, so I don't really know where else this thought is coming from. Plus, he's had several seasons where his positive contributions have outweighed the negative, so the idea that they can't count on him for anything is... well, again, I have no idea where that is coming from.

Could you expand a bit? Because I'm just not following you here.
 

Rasputin

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Honestly, I can't wrap my head around the case for not retaining him.
That's because the only case for not retaining him is an overly emotional one, as Red has mentioned.

You need a bunch of guys to get through the season. You shouldn't be comfortable going to camp with only five guys you'd be comfortable with in the rotation on Opening Day. You bring Buchholz back and the downside is that he pitches like crap which is the same downside you have if you don't bring him back and have to use someone else. We've seen the upside, though, and it's pretty damn good. Maybe he can't ever get there again. Maybe he can. Can Brian Johnson be as good as Good Clay? It's very unlikely. Kopech shouldn't really be considered as an option. Henry Owens has to demonstrate something significant before he's considered an option. What else do we have?
 

Bleedred

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I'm emotional. I hate him. I'll pray for solid pitching in September, we pick up the option and then trade his sorry ass in the off-season to someone willing to take a shot.
 

Rasputin

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I fully understand that the pitching market sucks for next season. But counting on Clay for anything isn't even a "fool me once" type scenario. It's a fool me seven times situation.
Bringing him back doesn't mean you're counting on him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm quite certain that Dombrowski is aware of the Jekyll and Hyde act he has played his entire career. Because he wasn't employed by the team doesn't mean he hasn't been paying attention.
Where did I say that Dombrowski is unaware of the Jekyll and Hyde act? I only said he hasn't been subjected to it for nearly as long as we the fans have, and therefore is far less likely to react in an emotional manner to it. He's seen the ups and downs of the guy from afar, but the bottom line is that over his career, Buchholz is an above average pitcher.

Dombrowski isn't going to factor how maddening it can be to watch the guy when he's deciding whether or not to pick up the option. He's going to be looking at whether or not Buchholz can be more of a help than a hindrance to the 2017 team. If he feels he can be a help, either by pitching for the team (starter or reliever) or by being a trade chip this winter, he's picking up the option.
 

czar

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I'm emotional. I hate him. I'll pray for solid pitching in September, we pick up the option and then trade his sorry ass in the off-season to someone willing to take a shot.
I will never ever understand the animosity towards a pitcher the Red Sox have paid $44 million to over the past 10 years who has returned ~$100m in value (pick your bWAR or fWAR, it doesn't matter).

Bring back guys like Mike Lowell or Shane Victorino (who may have broke even value-wise) for a bobblehead night and they'd get a standing ovation.

It's almost as absurd as the time fans booed Byung-Hyun Kim off the field in the ALDS, without being smart enough to realize that they wouldn't have even been able to attend a playoff game if it wasn't for him.
 

mauf

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The Sox paid Justin Masterson $9mm last season, and frankly, if it weren't for his history here, he likely would've taken that money from a team with a more pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Such is the reality of the market for starting pitching, even of the marginal variety. Given that reality, picking up Buchholz's option is a no-brainer, unless he has an injury we don't know about.
 

Rasputin

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I will never ever understand the animosity towards a pitcher the Red Sox have paid $44 million to over the past 10 years who has returned ~$100m in value (pick your bWAR or fWAR, it doesn't matter).

Bring back guys like Mike Lowell or Shane Victorino (who may have broke even value-wise) for a bobblehead night and they'd get a standing ovation.

It's almost as absurd as the time fans booed Byung-Hyun Kim off the field in the ALDS, without being smart enough to realize that they wouldn't have even been able to attend a playoff game if it wasn't for him.
Nobody cares how much they paid him, they really just care how well he's pitched recently, and Buch's best years are behind him.

The booing of Kim was embarrassing. The fans deserved to be flipped off.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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The Sox paid Justin Masterson $9mm last season, and frankly, if it weren't for his history here, he likely would've taken that money from a team with a more pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Such is the reality of the market for starting pitching, even of the marginal variety. Given that reality, picking up Buchholz's option is a no-brainer, unless he has an injury we don't know about.
How'd that work out?
 

soxfan121

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I will never ever understand the animosity towards a pitcher the Red Sox have paid $44 million to over the past 10 years who has returned ~$100m in value (pick your bWAR or fWAR, it doesn't matter).

Bring back guys like Mike Lowell or Shane Victorino (who may have broke even value-wise) for a bobblehead night and they'd get a standing ovation.

It's almost as absurd as the time fans booed Byung-Hyun Kim off the field in the ALDS, without being smart enough to realize that they wouldn't have even been able to attend a playoff game if it wasn't for him.

Kim had done more than enough to earn boos by the time he was booed. The idea that fanatics should have been rational enough to forgo booing this man is absurd.

By all means, bring back Buchholz because it is great business, the other options are insufficient, and he's far better than the average fan thinks he is – but don't tell me he hasn't earned the boos and skepticism of fans.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I will never ever understand the animosity towards a pitcher the Red Sox have paid $44 million to over the past 10 years who has returned ~$100m in value (pick your bWAR or fWAR, it doesn't matter).

Bring back guys like Mike Lowell or Shane Victorino (who may have broke even value-wise) for a bobblehead night and they'd get a standing ovation.

It's almost as absurd as the time fans booed Byung-Hyun Kim off the field in the ALDS, without being smart enough to realize that they wouldn't have even been able to attend a playoff game if it wasn't for him.
This. Picking up his 1 year/$13.5MM option is a no-brainer when you remove emotions from the equation.

I don't like watching Buchholz pitch, I admit. But I'm also unabashedly anti-booing and am glad to set aside my dislike for his slow pace and heroin-addict visage in the face of the starting pitching wasteland that is 2017.

Regardless of Clay's negative history with the team, his positive history in the AL East makes him a better upside bet for a #5/6 starter than anyone on the free agent market this offseason.

So picking up the option makes sense there. Now if the Sox had anyone better than Henry Owens in AA/AAA then maybe you trade him away. But since the Sox' upper minors are as barren as the free agent market for starting pitching, I think you have to hold your nose and keep him.

There's no such thing as too much starting pitching, after all.
 
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czar

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Kim had done more than enough to earn boos by the time he was booed. The idea that fanatics should have been rational enough to forgo booing this man is absurd.

By all means, bring back Buchholz because it is great business, the other options are insufficient, and he's far better than the average fan thinks he is – but don't tell me he hasn't earned the boos and skepticism of fans.
The finger was in response to the booing.

Kim had blown like back-to-back saves in September or something. EDIT: Actually, that's not true. He didn't allow an ER all September. Apparently he blew ALDS Game #1 and that was enough to set fans off.

Other than that he stabilized a terrible, terrible bullpen (a 69 ERA+ and ~1.5-3.0 +WPA/fWAR/bWAR in a season where the Sox won the WC by 2 games), but fans still had 2001 versus the Yankees stuck in their heads.

Fans can boo whoever they want but I am also allowed to call them idiots when they boo a player who has actually been very valuable for the team they supposedly root for.
 
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mt8thsw9th

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Any time you can get an injury prone guy with a 5.32 xFIP for only $13.5 million, you just have to pull the trigger. A no-brainer, really.
 

Rasputin

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Nevermind, it's not worth the argument. If you think Kim deserved to be booed you're wrong and you should go back and look at what actually happened.
 
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glennhoffmania

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This. Picking up his 1 year/$13.5MM option is a no-brainer when you remove emotions from the equation.
If we're going to remove the negative emotions from the equation we need to remove any positive ones as well. The fact that he's currently on the team should be ignored. If Buchholz was a FA and the Sox paid him $13m to be a long man/swing man, would it really be viewed as a great signing? I think he certainly has some value, but I also think that he's not worth anything close to $13m.
 

soxfan121

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The finger was in response to the booing.

Kim had blown like back-to-back saves in September or something. EDIT: Actually, that's not true. He didn't allow an ER all September. Apparently he blew ALDS Game #1 and that was enough to set fans off.

Other than that he stabilized a terrible, terrible bullpen (a 69 ERA+ and ~1.5-3.0 +WPA/fWAR/bWAR in a season where the Sox won the WC by 2 games), but fans still had 2001 versus the Yankees stuck in their heads.

Fans can boo whoever they want but I am also allowed to call them idiots when they boo a player who has actually been very valuable for the team they supposedly root for.
Well, sure. This is America - you can call anyone you want an idiot. That doesn't mean you're right or that you aren't the idiot.

Fans boo. I'm sure the archived game threads from 2004 would show that many, many rational, smart, wonderful people booed the everliving shit out of Kim. Emotionally driven reaction is a staple of the fan experience.

Smoothing out the fan experience by citing his stats in September doesn't work. He was booed because he "blew" a playoff game. Booing, in that moment, is not absurd or idiotic. Sitting quietly and repeating his stats in previous games is - a parody of the sports nerd. It's unfathomable to me. I am sure I was jumping up and down, cursing Kim, and losing my mind.

I can totally appreciate fans who've been scarred by the Clay Experience. They aren't idiotic for booing the player. They are idiotic if they don't want to pick up the option because of feelings. There's a substantive difference.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Keith Foulke blew a bunch of games in 2005. Was it nerdy to suggest maybe booing that was a bit buffoonish?

By the same token, Kim has no real tie to Sully from Boston. He works his ass off, helps deliver him meaningful games in October to watch for the first time in years (the finger incident was 03 not 04) and they cant see past the last 48 hours? And Embree wasnt booed too? Its "nerdy" to have a little common sense?

Hard to blame Kim for his "Fuck them".
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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If we're going to remove the negative emotions from the equation we need to remove any positive ones as well. The fact that he's currently on the team should be ignored. If Buchholz was a FA and the Sox paid him $13m to be a long man/swing man, would it really be viewed as a great signing? I think he certainly has some value, but I also think that he's not worth anything close to $13m.
Sure, that's fair. I didn't think Ryan Dempster was worth $39MM, when he was signed to be a #5 starter.

Unfortunately, Steven Wright's shoulder injury means the Sox need to consider that their swing man will have to pitch a fair number of starts, potentially all of them. Buchholz gives them someone who can, at times, pitch at an All-Star level for half a season. He's potentially the best #5 starter option available, and can be had for only a 1 year commitment.

That one year not only gives the Sox a legitimate #5 option in case Wright needs some sort of surgical shoulder repair, but also time to decide whether Kopech is a legit starter based on his work at AA (where he'll surely start 2017), or whether his future is as a late-inning bullpen guy.

With no other organizational assets given up, and no long-term financial commitment to someone just as questionable.
 

Rasputin

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If we're going to remove the negative emotions from the equation we need to remove any positive ones as well. The fact that he's currently on the team should be ignored. If Buchholz was a FA and the Sox paid him $13m to be a long man/swing man, would it really be viewed as a great signing? I think he certainly has some value, but I also think that he's not worth anything close to $13m.
If the Sox decline the option and he goes on the FA market, he's very probably going to get more, especially if Wright is done for the year and Buch pitches well the last few weeks.

Well, sure. This is America - you can call anyone you want an idiot. That doesn't mean you're right or that you aren't the idiot.
This is infuriating.

HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU POSSIBLY BELIEVE IT WAS APPROPRIATE TO BOO AT SOMEONE WHO PITCHED WELL?

Oh my god, he allowed TWO WHOLE BASERUNNERS in an inning, hold me, I'm all shakey quakey.

Give me a fucking break. If you booed Kim, you should be embarrassed. If you think he deserved to be booed you should be embarrassed.
 

soxfan121

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This is infuriating.

HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU POSSIBLY BELIEVE IT WAS APPROPRIATE TO BOO AT SOMEONE WHO PITCHED WELL?

Oh my god, he allowed TWO WHOLE BASERUNNERS in an inning, hold me, I'm all shakey quakey.

Give me a fucking break. If you booed Kim, you should be embarrassed. If you think he deserved to be booed you should be embarrassed.
You are (emotionally) booing a post about the right of fanatics to (emotionally) boo whatever they want to (emotionally) boo.

I disapprove of what you (emotionally) post, but I'll defend to the death your right to (emotionally) post it.
 

AB in DC

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Back to the original question: The answer is yes, because next year is an odd-numbered year. And odd-numbered-year Buchholz is a far better pitcher than even-numbered-year Buchholz.
 

Rasputin

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You are (emotionally) booing a post about the right of fanatics to (emotionally) boo whatever they want to (emotionally) boo.

I disapprove of what you (emotionally) post, but I'll defend to the death your right to (emotionally) post it.
I will always stick up for the people in this town that are treated harshly by ignorant buffoons and hooligans.
 

crystalline

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I don't like watching Buchholz pitch, I admit. But I'm also unabashedly anti-booing and am glad to set aside my dislike for his slow pace and heroin-addict visage in the face of the starting pitching wasteland that is 2017
This is exactly where I am at.


One thing that hasn't been mentioned: it may be hard to keep Clay as the #6 starter if Wright is healthy. Your #6 starter is generally a player with options who doesn't mind riding the shuttle. That cuts both ways-- the Sox don't have a sixth starter-in-waiting in the minors and it's hard to find a good one in FA, as good starters can usually find a rotation gig. So may be best to keep him for that reason.
However Clay accepted a demotion this year, but he may insist on a starting role next year. Probably the team handles that, but it might turn out poorly.
 

mauf

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This is exactly where I am at.


One thing that hasn't been mentioned: it may be hard to keep Clay as the #6 starter if Wright is healthy. Your #6 starter is generally a player with options who doesn't mind riding the shuttle. That cuts both ways-- the Sox don't have a sixth starter-in-waiting in the minors and it's hard to find a good one in FA, as good starters can usually find a rotation gig. So may be best to keep him for that reason.
However Clay accepted a demotion this year, but he may insist on a starting role next year. Probably the team handles that, but it might turn out poorly.
He can't turn down a move to the bullpen, and his impending free agency provides ample incentive to pitch well in whatever role he's given. Besides, as his acceptance of this year's demotion demonstrates, he has always been a team player -- he won't expect to be in the rotation if he's not one of our five best starters.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Picking up the option with this market is a no-brainer. Whether he is with the Sox next year depends on what he'd fetch on the trade market. He will have value to the Sox the question remains to be seen, does he fetch greater value.
 

Rasputin

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This is exactly where I am at.


One thing that hasn't been mentioned: it may be hard to keep Clay as the #6 starter if Wright is healthy. Your #6 starter is generally a player with options who doesn't mind riding the shuttle. That cuts both ways-- the Sox don't have a sixth starter-in-waiting in the minors and it's hard to find a good one in FA, as good starters can usually find a rotation gig. So may be best to keep him for that reason.
However Clay accepted a demotion this year, but he may insist on a starting role next year. Probably the team handles that, but it might turn out poorly.
I don't think Buch will insist on anything. I mean, first off, he can't. He either pitches when they tell him to or he's in violation of his contract. But I don't think it will matter. He seems to have taken to this bullpen thing pretty well.

And frankly, if the Sox go into spring training with Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez essentially guaranteed rotation slots and Wright, Buch, Johnson, and some scrubby vets "competing" for that last spot, I think there's a pretty good chance Buch wins that competition, not because it's rigged, but because he actually pitches well.

Steven Wright isn't an ace. He's not really the guy he was the first half of the season any more than Wake was the guy he was to start 1995. He's just a guy who's a pretty good pitcher. I think he'd be tremendous in a bullpen role.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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The pitching market is absolutely barren this offseason. If the sox were to decline his option he is almost guaranteed to get paid more than 13.5MM. even if the sox don't want him they should still pick up the option and the trade him since there will be a healthy market for his services.
Clay would have 10-5 rights next year, wouldn't he? 2007 was his first year up, or does it require ten full seasons in the bigs, not partials?
 

YTF

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The pitching market is absolutely barren this offseason. If the sox were to decline his option he is almost guaranteed to get paid more than 13.5MM. even if the sox don't want him they should still pick up the option and the trade him since there will be a healthy market for his services.
This. A couple of months ago I saw absolutely no chance in his option being picked up for any reason, but he's seems to have found something that's allowing good Clay to resurface. Also it seems that he's going to have at least a couple of more starts to show if this trend can continue.
 

nvalvo

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Clay would have 10-5 rights next year, wouldn't he? 2007 was his first year up, or does it require ten full seasons in the bigs, not partials?
He has 7 years and 59 days of MLB service, per baseball reference, even if it is distributed across nine seasons. Service time is the relevant metric.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I was an absolutist on not picking up his option. He's Clay for crimminy! He'll figure out a way to give you hope only to end up as a drag on the 25 man roster... Untradeable and unproductive. I can't fathom a world in which someone like that is worth a gazillion times worth more than what a teacher in this country does for a living... But that world is professional sports and it exists and is real and I pay attention to it!
And in that world, pitchers without his ceiling and without his pedigree get offered more than $13 million for throwing a ball.
Ian Kennedy was all that I needed for convincing...
What they do with him after picking it up is another topic...
 

grimshaw

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I think it's a no-brainer.
-They aren't strapped for cash (though Encarnacion/Jansen could be additions). The free agent market is terrible.

All of these pitchers signed for an AAV over 15mill last year - Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, Brian Anderson!, Wei Yin Chen, Jeff Samardzija(5 years 18mill AAV for his one good season), Scott Kazmir, Gallardo is at 2 yrs/22 mill with one season with a sub 4ERA. Clay likely would have gotten just south of Samardzija (16-17mil over 4 or 5?) based on averaging 2.5 WAR the prior 3 years, and having one of his best seasons in 2015. Tangentially relevant, but an idea of pitcher value right now.

13 mill is a 1.5 WAR gamble in this market. It's 7% of their payroll based on 175 mill I don't think some people can get over that fact.

-Their biggest assets to acquire a significant Buchholz upgrade are ones a lot of us (including myself) would prefer to keep.
-No one but Kopech is in the pipeline in the next year or two. All of the depth they acquired in the minors couldn't even crack replacement level.
-5 starters are rarely all healthy together. If they aren't competitive for whatever reason, they can flip him. If the pitching market is anything like it was at the deadline, they will get something of value.

The only downside is if he gets chirpy in a contract year about being yanked around.
 
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wilked

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The two closest contracts signed last year appear to be:

Brett Anderson (1/$15.8MM) and Hisashi Iwakuma (1/$12MM)
Colon got $1/$7.5MM but of course he is not quite comparable
 

The Gray Eagle

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This decision doesn't need to be made until after the season, when we will know how he pitched over the last month. Nobody knows how that is going to go. He could blow out his arm tonight for all we know. Or maybe he pitches great and throws a no-hitter in the World Series clinching game.

The point is, more stuff is going to happen and nobody yet knows what that stuff is, so there's no point in deciding this now. The Red Sox will have that info before they have to make this call.
 

chrisfont9

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One more data point now on the "what to do with Clay?" conundrum. He's now 3-1 with an ERA just under 3. since the ASG. That's in a mere 36.2 innings, so make of it what you will. But if Buchholz insists on having every season be half shit and half brilliant, I'm glad he at least got the sequence right this time.
 

Pandemonium67

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There's also the Brian Bannister factor. BB helped Buchholz make a change to his arm slot, and the results have been impressive. This suggests that the improvement could be sustainable.

If he continues to pitch for the rest of the season as well as he has since August, the Sox will absolutely keep him.
 

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There's also the Brian Bannister factor. BB helped Buchholz make a change to his arm slot, and the results have been impressive. This suggests that the improvement could be sustainable.

If he continues to pitch for the rest of the season as well as he has since August, the Sox will absolutely keep him.
Yeah I think the Bannister effect is important. There's actually a mechanical change that took place that coincides with Clay's resurgence.

I don't expect him to continue to have a sub-3 ERA since the change but it seems there is building evidence that the changes make him an effective and valuable pitcher again.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,799
Yeah I think the Bannister effect is important. There's actually a mechanical change that took place that coincides with Clay's resurgence.

I don't expect him to continue to have a sub-3 ERA since the change but it seems there is building evidence that the changes make him an effective and valuable pitcher again.
I've read about Bannister's influence, and it certainly may be a factor going forward. Is he the one that suggested full-time from the stretch, or was that just a happy accident from relief pitching?