So, over in the 2011 NFL draft thread people are saying that draft picks from the third round on can't really be considered busts, because the flameout rate for those picks is so high...and yet here we're saying it's ok to spend those picks on an offensive line protecting your biggest asset?
How do we reconcile those two viewpoints?
Personally, I would like some more top-end pedigree on the line.
I don't have detailed stats, but I would presume the "flameout" rate probably varies somewhat based on position. Basically, it's easier to find a starting guard or center in the later rounds than it is to find a starting left tackle.
I think it is fair to say that Belichick the GM has not invested a lot of high draft picks (arbitrarily defined as rounds 1-3) on offensive lineman. It's fair to question whether more draft capital could have been spent over the years on OL. But it's absolutely ridiculous to insinuate incompetence or malpractice on the part of the Patriots for their approach, as it ignores some basic facts, including:
In 2011, the Pats used their first pick to shore up what is widely considered the most important part of the OL, left tackle. Since then, they've had five 4th round draft choices and three 5th rounders. Of those eight 4-5 picks, they drafted 4 offensive lineman and one long snapper. Of those 4, two are firmly entrenched in the backup camp (Cannon and Fleming), while one is clearly a starter (Stork), and it appears he will be a solid starter for quite some time. The other 2 (Jackson and Mason) are rookies, but showed some steady flashes during the regular season. Two of last year's starters, Connolly and Wendell, also took time to develop, so it's way too early to write off either of the rookies.
The amount of draft capital spent by the Pats on the OL is not out of the norm when compared to other teams, even this season's final 4.
There are only so many draft picks. Looking more closely at the 1-3 round picks since Solder, we have:
Pro-Bowl or near Pro-Bowl players: Chandler Jones, Hightower, Jamie Collins.
Solid starter: Logan Ryan
Solid starter that has since left: Vereen, Ridley
Rotational player: Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson
Busts or relative disappointments: Ras-I Dowling, Jake Bequette, Aaron Dobson
Promising young players: Malcolm Brown, Dominique Easley, Jordan Richards
TBD or incomplete: Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geneo Grissom
It's not like there's a lot of wasted draft capital there. And if you're going to play the "What if they took an OL instead of Dobson" game, you also need to play the "What if they took a guard instead of Jamie Collins" game as well.
Finally, we should not discount the impact of injuries. Sure, it's football, and all team's have them. But last year, the OL was relatively healthy in the playoffs. Stork missed the AFCCG, but was back for the Super Bowl. This year, Wendell and Solder were on the shelf. We know that Vollmer had a series of injuries this season, and was playing out of position. Cannon missed a few games with a "toe" injury, but that one could have been a lot more serious than the word toe would have you believe. Jackson was also limited in practice throughout the playoffs. There's only so much contigency planning a coach or GM can do when it comes to injuries. It's not an excuse; Denver won because they were the better team on Sunday. But when it's time to evaluate the roster, it's stupid to ignore the impact injuries did have.
