Yoan Moncada signs with Red Sox($30 Million)

LahoudOrBillyC

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If the current Yankee thinking holds, namely that they stay out of the market until current obligations expire, they have at least one more off-season of pain.  They are currently on the hook for 180M for 2016 for just 10 players, including A-Rod, CC, Teix, Tanaka, Ellsbury,McCann, Beltran, Gardner, Miller. Headley.
 
If they want to hold in the 210 range, they stuck for next year.
 
TheoShmeo

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I don't think the Yankees' thinking is to stay out of the market until current obligations expire.
 
The made a bid.  It was reportedly within $5-6 mm of the Sox bid.  It seems more accurate to say that they are willing to be in the market up to a limit.  Whether they were wise to do so in this case or stop bidding where they did is another matter, but it's not as if they were not in the running at all.
 
soxhop411

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We are going to get an influx of scoring reports once he gets assigned to the minors. And I cannot wait to read them all
 
Detts

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RedOctober3829 said:
Yes, he'll probably play in Salem to start the year then progress from there.  Would love to see him up in Portland this summer.
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He could start at Greenville and end in Salem next year.  Sox like to give the non-college kids time to adjust to a pro schedule, among other things.
 
geoduck no quahog

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I tried to make a depth chart projected through 2020 and gave up.
 
What it boils down to is:
 
- Predicting the DH starting in 2016
- Predicting the 1B starting in 2016 and 2017-2019
- Predicting the 3B starting in 2017 
- Assuming Xander is the SS through 2019
 
- Who plays LF?
- Do they groom Moncada for RF?
 
So this is where my brain starts hurting (I made a chart and it's stupid)
 
1. At 3B you have a possible transition from Sandoval to Moncada (2017) or Bogaerts (2017)
2. At SS you have a possible transition from Bogaerts to (Marrero?) (2017), or Bogaerts just stays there through 2019, until he's a FA
3. At 1B You have a possible transition from Napoli to Ramirez (2016) to Sandoval (2017)
4. At DH: Ortiz to Ramirez (2016/17)? Craig for one year? (2016)
5. In LF I guess you have Betts taking over in 2016 or 2017 (through 2020)
6. In RF you have a choice of Betts, Craig or JBJ in 2016, with Moncada taking over in 2017 (if he's not at 3rd)
 
Can anyone make sense of this? It looks really deep, but too many iterations.
 
2016 (as of today) could be:
 
C: Swihart
1B: Ramirez
2B: Pedroia
SS: Bogaerts
3B: Sandoval
LF: Betts
CF: Castillo
RF: JBJ
DH: Craig
 
and 2017 could be:
 
C: Swihart
1B: Sandoval
2B: Pedroia
SS: Bogaerts or ?
3B: Moncada or Bogaerts
LF: Betts
CF: Castillo
RF: Moncada or ?
DH: Ramirez
 
Mike F

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So what's the difference between the NYY choice not to commit $6+M (x2) for Moncada
and that Sox decision not to offer another $6+M per annum to Lester?
 
FelixMantilla

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Mike F said:
So what's the difference between the NYY choice not to commit $6+M (x2) for Moncada
and that Sox decision not to offer another $6+M per annum to Lester?
Click to expand...
 
Good question Mike. I guess is the Sox would rather gamble on future projection rather than pay for past performance. 
 
MikeM

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FelixMantilla said:
 
Good question Mike. I guess is the Sox would rather gamble on future projection rather than pay for past performance. 
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Overall i like and am excited about the signing, at least in a it's not my money type of manner. Reading the extra $31.5m won't count against the LT certainly makes me feel better about the risk as well. 
 
But yeah, that is a legit question imo. Taking an aggressive approach here and paying such a super high premium to acquire young/unproven (in this case not even ready) talent makes me ponder if elite talent already established at the MLB level isn't getting undervalued somewhere in that thought process. Especially by a team that is still playing an arguably conservative hand in certain areas of their roster construction.
 
Mighty Joe Young

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MikeM said:
Overall i like and am excited about the signing, at least in a it's not my money type of manner. Reading the extra $31.5m won't count against the LT certainly makes me feel better about the risk as well. 
 
But yeah, that is a legit question imo. Taking an aggressive approach here and paying such a super high premium to acquire young/unproven (in this case not even ready) talent makes me ponder if elite talent already established at the MLB level isn't getting undervalued somewhere in that thought process. Especially by a team that is still playing an arguably conservative hand in certain areas of their roster construction.
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I think the reasoning is that Moncada projects as an elite YOUNG talent .. And it's increasingly difficult to acquire players like that in Free Agency. It's also the reason Betts and Swihart are still in the organization as opposed to Hamels.

How much could the Cubs fetch for Bryant if they could sell him?
 
LahoudOrBillyC

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Mike F said:
So what's the difference between the NYY choice not to commit $6+M (x2) for Moncada
and that Sox decision not to offer another $6+M per annum to Lester?
Click to expand...
 
What I hope is that the Red Sox determined a bottom line in each case and stuck with it, independent of all other factors.  In Lester's case, their final figure was too low, in Moncada's case it was not.  If the Red Sox start playing games with "being aggressive" and "going the extra mile" they are going about it wrong in my view.
 
In a world with 29 other teams, you don't get everything you want.  Let's not make the mistake that we make every off-season, that every free agent "loss" is because "we didn't try hard enough."
 
Mighty Joe Young

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LahoudOrBillyC said:
What I hope is that the Red Sox determined a bottom line in each case and stuck with it, independent of all other factors.  In Lester's case, their final figure was too low, in Moncada's case it was not.  If the Red Sox start playing games with "being aggressive" and "going the extra mile" they are going about it wrong in my view.
 
In a world with 29 other teams, you don't get everything you want.  Let's not make the mistake that we make every off-season, that every free agent "loss" is because "we didn't try hard enough."
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I'm not sure that the fan base is making that mistake anymore .. Three championships in ten years will do that. There doesn't seem to have been that much gnashing of teeth over losing Lester. Regret over the possible botched negotiations last spring for sure. But I haven't heard many folks saying we should have match the Cubs offer.
 
LahoudOrBillyC

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
I'm not sure that the fan base is making that mistake anymore .. Three championships in ten years will do that. There doesn't seem to have been that much gnashing of teeth over losing Lester. Regret over the possible botched negotiations last spring for sure. But I haven't heard many folks saying we should have match the Cubs offer.
Click to expand...
 
I hope you are right, though the whining about the loss of Ellsbury, a few short weeks after a parade, seemed to go on forever.  Has it stopped yet?
 
TomRicardo

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geoduck no quahog said:
I tried to make a depth chart projected through 2020 and gave up.
 
What it boils down to is:
 
- Predicting the DH starting in 2016
- Predicting the 1B starting in 2016 and 2017-2019
- Predicting the 3B starting in 2017 
- Assuming Xander is the SS through 2019
 
- Who plays LF?
- Do they groom Moncada for RF?
 
So this is where my brain starts hurting (I made a chart and it's stupid)
 
1. At 3B you have a possible transition from Sandoval to Moncada (2017) or Bogaerts (2017)
2. At SS you have a possible transition from Bogaerts to (Marrero?) (2017), or Bogaerts just stays there through 2019, until he's a FA
3. At 1B You have a possible transition from Napoli to Ramirez (2016) to Sandoval (2017)
4. At DH: Ortiz to Ramirez (2016/17)? Craig for one year? (2016)
5. In LF I guess you have Betts taking over in 2016 or 2017 (through 2020)
6. In RF you have a choice of Betts, Craig or JBJ in 2016, with Moncada taking over in 2017 (if he's not at 3rd)
 
Can anyone make sense of this? It looks really deep, but too many iterations.
 
2016 (as of today) could be:
 
C: Swihart
1B: Ramirez
2B: Pedroia
SS: Bogaerts
3B: Sandoval
LF: Betts
CF: Castillo
RF: JBJ
DH: Craig
 
and 2017 could be:
 
C: Swihart
1B: Sandoval
2B: Pedroia
SS: Bogaerts or ?
3B: Moncada or Bogaerts
LF: Betts
CF: Castillo
RF: Moncada or ?
DH: Ramirez
Click to expand...
 
 
Why would you put Castillo in CF over Bradley? Defensively Bradley is much better than Castillo/
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
From Edes' article: 
 
 
Someone help me out with what I'm missing. Strasburg got $15.1M in 2009. Harper got $9.9M in 2010. 
Click to expand...
 
Strasburg's bonus was $7.5M out of a total deal of $15.1M.  Harper's bonus was $6.25M of his $9.9M total deal.
 
soxhop411

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RedOctober3829 said:
Badler didn't say much that hadn't been already discussed in this thread. Mentioned the Cano comp, but said he most likely projects at 3B. Says he'll start in high A and should be in Portland by the summer.
Click to expand...
Thank you
 
johnnywayback

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Nothing too newsworthy out of the Badler interview.  Suggested Moncada will start at Salem, at least for the first half of the year, and play mostly 2B and 3B.  Thought 3B might be his long-term destination (with Sandoval moving to 1B), but that was speculation.  Didn't pooh-pooh the Cano comparison, which, Jesus.  No real insight on what the signing might mean in terms of valuing assets for trades or draft strategy, continues to think Betts is untradable and Swihart close to it, and that the Sox are likely to take best player available with a slight preference for a pitcher at #7.
 
LahoudOrBillyC

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Just ended.  
 
Badler says Moncada is above average in all tools, really only Buxton (BA #2) is comparable in tools.  He doesn't think he will stay at SS, but he thought he could play CF (and obviously any other IF or OF position).  Thinks he starts in High A and is in Portland by mid-summer and Boston sometime next year.  Body type will likely move him to a corner eventually.
 
Would not trade Betts in any deal.  Swihart possible in right deal.  Today might create additional willingness to deal other position players.
 
Thinks Red Sox will play Moncada at multiple positions in minors to maintain flexibility.
 
Does not think Moncada will effect pick this summer.  Best available player is what they will go for.
 
In my lifetime

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Mike F said:
So what's the difference between the NYY choice not to commit $6+M (x2) for Moncada
and that Sox decision not to offer another $6+M per annum to Lester?
Click to expand...
 
Because as you wrote it is per annum.
6 x 6 = 36 million + as BC's noted it, then you have to add the luxury tax implications.
 
So it is at least 40M v 12M comparison and likely to be more like 50M vs. 12M difference, depending on how often the RS are over the LT number.
 
In addition, Moncada's contract and team control actually helps the RS stay below the LT threshold (per-arb years are a bargain if he approaches his projections), while Lester's contract will obviously use a substantial amount of the budget below the LT threshold and make staying under difficult.
 
theapportioner

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In my lifetime said:
 
Because as you wrote it is per annum.
6 x 6 = 36 million + as BC's noted it, then you have to add the luxury tax implications.
 
So it is at least 40M v 12M comparison and likely to be more like 50M vs. 12M difference, depending on how often the RS are over the LT number.
 
In addition, Moncada's contract and team control actually helps the RS stay below the LT threshold (per-arb years are a bargain if he approaches his projections), while Lester's contract will obviously use a substantial amount of the budget below the LT threshold and make staying under difficult.
Click to expand...
 
 
Won't his big salary count towards the luxury tax if he is called up to the majors, though?
 
Edit: nevermind. Assuming it's all in bonus and the salary contribution won't be that high.
 
snowmanny

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RedOctober3829 said:
No, his contract is that of a regular minor league player. The $31.5 million is a bonus to get him to sign.
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Like a draft pick, correct?
 
ehaz

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mauidano said:
Drew Smyly had an interesting take on this today.
 
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/23/drew-smyly-criticizes-the-yoan-moncada-deal/
 
The gist of it being that American kids could never make that kind of deal on a fast track either like what's been happening to the Cuban kids.
Click to expand...
 
Jeez, poor college educated American teenagers unable to get a full 30 million dollars to play professional baseball.  Ya know, after having to emigrate here on a raft with drug smugglers.
 
wade boggs chicken dinner

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So what's the difference between the NYY choice not to commit $6+M (x2) for Moncada
and that Sox decision not to offer another $6+M per annum to Lester?
Click to expand...
one is not yet 20. The other won't see 30 again.

If the Sox make the playoffs eight out of the next ten years and an international FA draft is instituted, the Sox will likely never have a chance to get a consensus top-3 talent. If the Sox want to, they will have multiple chances to pick-up a Lester-type pitcher for Lester-like money.

Also, the MFYs are freaking stupid because if Moncada pans out, they could save multiples of $12M on luxury tax payments.
 
Mighty Joe Young

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ehaz said:
Jeez, poor college educated American teenagers unable to get a full 30 million dollars to play professional baseball.  Ya know, after having to emigrate here on a raft with drug smugglers.
Click to expand...
Well .. In Moncada's case he was allowed to leave .. So no raft for him. But your point still stands. That's just rank jealousy. Drew shouldn't have to be envious for too long. An International Draft will eliminate that sort of thing and the Owners can go back to pocketing the money saved.
 
steveluck7

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ehaz said:
 
Jeez, poor college educated American teenagers unable to get a full 30 million dollars to play professional baseball.  Ya know, after having to emigrate here on a raft with drug smugglers.
Click to expand...
 
Smyly should take it up with his union. They could prioritize the needs of draftees and minor leaguers in negotiations if they wanted to, perhaps even making things so that the very best of them saw signing bonuses near what Moncada just got. 
 
This is what, a $7 billion dollar industry, and the players, collectively, get a bit less than half of that? That's a lot of money to divide among 4500 or so people. 
 
Scoops Bolling

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steveluck7 said:
Except, of course, that just a few years ago Bryce Harper got 1/3 of that and he hadn't played against the levels of competition that Moncada has
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Except Harper was the consensus best prospect in a decade, and was considered a generational talent. Moncada, as good as he is, is not considered in that stratosphere. Harper was the #1 overall prospect in baseball immediately upon being drafted; Moncada is a tier down.
 
Smyly absolutely has a point, and it will undoubtedly be addressed.
 
Mike F

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
one is not yet 20. The other won't see 30 again.

If the Sox make the playoffs eight out of the next ten years and an international FA draft is instituted, the Sox will likely never have a chance to get a consensus top-3 talent. If the Sox want to, they will have multiple chances to pick-up a Lester-type pitcher for Lester-like money.

Also, the MFYs are freaking stupid because if Moncada pans out, they could save multiples of $12M on luxury tax payments.
Click to expand...
I was simply questioning the difference between the two teams "choices" not the value of
reason(s) for those choices. The Sox made a value judgement on Lester as did the NYY on
Moncada. Shapiro/Steinenkaisern are castigated
and BC is praised for his action.
 
Rasputin

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Scoops Bolling said:
Except Harper was the consensus best prospect in a decade, and was considered a generational talent. Moncada, as good as he is, is not considered in that stratosphere. Harper was the #1 overall prospect in baseball immediately upon being drafted; Moncada is a tier down.
 
Smyly absolutely has a point, and it will undoubtedly be addressed.
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The current membership will sell out the potential future membership in a fraction of a nanosecond.
 
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Anything referring to a possible trade with the Phillies for Hamels has been moved to the Hamels thread because it's the Hamels thread.
 
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