Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Red Sox didn't "just win the World Series" when they traded Mookie and fired Dombrowski. 2019 really happened and the team was even worse than this year's. That gets conveniently forgotten every time another "Mookie would have made this team a World Series winner" whinefest crops up. One player never makes a difference in baseball and the organization as a whole needed a change.
I don't disagree with this idea, but I strongly disagree with the way the org decided to go about making those changes. 2019 was a strange year where they were one five game winning streak away from being a WS competitor all season and just could never put one together. It was an odd odd season.
 

BaseballJones

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Baseball as usual is remarkably short-sighted in their business practices. They need more minor league teams, and to treat their players better. Minor league baseball is the gateway drug to lifelong baseball fandom and major league interest; most families cannot afford to go to many major league games, but minor league games are much less expensive, more "fun" and allow kids to get hooked on the game. I take my kid to one Red Sox game a year, but we go to many many Sea Dogs games. And she's hooked.

Part and parcel with that is the burning need to treat the minor league players better. There's no excuse for what conditions they are forced to live in. Most of these guys get maybe a $1000 signing bonus; actually going into debt while playing ball because of housing costs is criminally neglectful and the teams should be ashamed of themselves.
This is a great post and I co-sign every word of it.
 

BaseballJones

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I grew up going to a dozen PawSox games every year. And one Red Sox game. That's all my parents could afford, but it worked. That baseball deprived the fine people of Lowell their very own minor league team because "expenses" offends me to my core.
I don't get to many minor league games OR major league games - maybe one or two a year max - but I love the minor league experience. It's a whole lot of fun and your analogy of it being a gateway drug to baseball is spot on. The kids have their favorites and love following them up into the majors. Instead of it being a player they read about on Soxprospects.com, they have had a chance to get his autograph and can say, "I met that guy!"

It's one reason why having a largely home-grown team is so attractive to so many fans. But if you gut the minor leagues, it's way harder to achieve this.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I don't get to many minor league games OR major league games - maybe one or two a year max - but I love the minor league experience. It's a whole lot of fun and your analogy of it being a gateway drug to baseball is spot on. The kids have their favorites and love following them up into the majors. Instead of it being a player they read about on Soxprospects.com, they have had a chance to get his autograph and can say, "I met that guy!"

It's one reason why having a largely home-grown team is so attractive to so many fans. But if you gut the minor leagues, it's way harder to achieve this.
My kid first liked the Sea Dogs games because of the sideshows: Slugger The Sea Dog (got her picture with him), running the bases, the goofy promos, the Sea Dog Biscuits. I took her to the Sale rehab start a few weeks ago and she was still into all of that but also was REALLY into the actual game. That sort of interest takes time to nurture and ferment, and at $10 a ticket the minor leagues make it easy to carry out that fermentation.
 

Sille Skrub

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Baseball as usual is remarkably short-sighted in their business practices. They need more minor league teams, and to treat their players better. Minor league baseball is the gateway drug to lifelong baseball fandom and major league interest; most families cannot afford to go to many major league games, but minor league games are much less expensive, more "fun" and allow kids to get hooked on the game. I take my kid to one Red Sox game a year, but we go to many many Sea Dogs games. And she's hooked.
You're doing yeoman's work in this thread. Thank you.

As for that shift you mentioned, with all the rumblings he has made across the pond, ownership seems less engaged over the past few years. Do you think JWH brought Chaim in here to position the team to sell it?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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My kid first liked the Sea Dogs games because of the sideshows: Slugger The Sea Dog (got her picture with him), running the bases, the goofy promos, the Sea Dog Biscuits. I took her to the Sale rehab start a few weeks ago and she was still into all of that but also was REALLY into the actual game. That sort of interest takes time to nurture and ferment, and at $10 a ticket the minor leagues make it easy to carry out that fermentation.
Yep. And that's awesome. Minor league games are just a fun experience. I took my dad to a Sea Dogs game earlier this year (Bello pitched...not well but still) and it was the first time we'd been to any baseball game together in YEARS. Just a fun night out.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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You're doing yeoman's work in this thread. Thank you.

As for that shift you mentioned, with all the rumblings he has made across the pond, ownership seems less engaged over the past few years. Do you think JWH brought Chaim in here to position the team to sell it?
I thought that for a while but honestly no. JWH is less engaged but Werner is more engaged, and I don't see Henry selling the only reason anyone in this country knows who the hell he is. Also the Red Sox are engaging in a Braves-like real estate renovation around Fenway which will be appealling to him as well.

I think he brought Chaim in here because he liked what TB is doing (and frankly what they are doing on that payroll is extremely impressive) and wanted some of that in Boston. Theo won but spent a ton of money. Same with Ben and same with DD. Maybe the next challenge is winning like TB without spending $300 million.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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DD was the detour. I believe they are back on the path that brought 4 titles.

You can believe they are on the path that has resulted in the last two weeks.

One of those is a Small Sample Size
Eh. DD was the same as Theo in that while he relied less on the farm system, he spent a ton of money to bring in talented players. Theo developed the system more but both guys won with extremely high payrolls. I don't see DD as a detour at all.
 

BringBackMo

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Ownership radically changed course after winning the 2018 World Series.

Bloom isn't here to remake the Sox as the Dodgers. He's here to make the Sox a higher payroll version of the Rays (who oddly enough traded away Rich Hill even as they were leading the division and he is still a good pitcher).

As JMOH pointed out, I wish the Sox would commit to one path or another. If the goal is to rebuild the system and compete in a couple of years, then sell off players who real contenders would find useful and get more minor league assets. If the goal is to compete right away, then bring in better players for the major league club to make a run this year. Instead, Bloom kind of waffled. He brought in 2 bad pitchers and an injured player because they didn't cost much, but that neither restocks the farm system nor does it help the major league team. And so now they tried to have it both ways and instead have nothing: neither a strengthened farm system nor a major league team that can complete for a title. It's a puzzling approach.
By your logic, the job of Bloom at this particular trading deadline was to either dramatically restock the farm system or go all in on maximizing this team’s chances this year to win the World Series. That is simply not the way a competent baseball executive would approach this entire organization at this particular stage of its transformation. And this is not Monday morning quarterbacking on my part.

I made at least five posts in the weeks leading up to the deadline in which I pointed out that Bloom would almost certainly not trade any of his top prospects because he wants to build an organization capable of competing for championships every year while maintaining a perennially loaded farm system. In other words, the Dodgers East. My prediction was that he would acquire a lefty 1B and maybe a bullpen arm, and that he would trade only mid-level prospects to do so. (Aldo Ramirez was actually a better prospect than I expected him to trade.)

This was an easy call to have nailed. Anyone paying attention at all understood the plan. This is, was, and always has been a bridge year. When Bloom constructed this roster there were, of course, multiple outcomes for it, probably from 75 to 95 wins. My belief is that regardless of the actual outcome, this was ALWAYS going to be his approach at the deadline. Even if this team were looking like the best in baseball at the deadline, he was never going to spend heavily to improve it. A portion of this board is obsessed with the performance of the 2021 Red Sox. Bloom, in my opinion, is obsessed with 2022-2032.

In sum, posters cannot say that they really support Bloom as CBO but believe he whiffed this deadline. This deadline IS Bloom as CBO. Will you and others here ultimately be proved right? Is Bloom’s approach folly? We’ll find out. But I believe in it more than I’ve believed in anything this team has done since Theo was in charge. And that’s not blind faith in Bloom, that’s recognition of the fact that the guy who taught him is executing the same plan to perfection in Los Angels. And by the way, THAT guy had also never worked in a major market before taking the job with the Dodgers. These days, he’s taking a wrecking ball to Major League Baseball.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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By your log

By your logic, the job of Bloom at this particular trading deadline was to either dramatically restock the farm system or go all in on maximizing this team’s chances this year to win the World Series. That is simply not the way a competent baseball executive would approach this entire organization at this particular stage of its transformation. And this is not Monday morning quarterbacking on my part.

I made at least five posts in the weeks leading up to the deadline in which I pointed out that Bloom would almost certainly not trade any of his top prospects because he wants to build an organization capable of competing for championships every year while maintaining a perennially loaded farm system. In other words, the Dodgers East. My prediction was that he would acquire a lefty 1B and maybe a bullpen arm, and that he would trade only mid-level prospects to do so. (Aldo Ramirez was actually a better prospect than I expected him to trade.)

This was an easy call to have nailed. Anyone paying attention at all understood the plan. This is, was, and always has been a bridge year. When Bloom constructed this roster there were, of course, multiple outcomes for it, probably from 75 to 95 wins. My belief is that regardless of the actual outcome, this was ALWAYS going to be his approach at the deadline. Even if this team were looking like the best in baseball at the deadline, he was never going to spend heavily to improve it. A portion of this board is obsessed with the performance of the 2021 Red Sox. Bloom, in my opinion, is obsessed with 2022-2032.

In sum, posters cannot say that they really support Bloom as CBO but believe he whiffed this deadline. This deadline IS Bloom as CBO. Will you and others here ultimately be proved right? Is Bloom’s approach folly? We’ll find out. But I believe in it more than I’ve believed in anything this team has done since Theo was in charge. And that’s not blind faith in Bloom, that’s recognition of the fact that the guy who taught him is executing the same plan to perfection in Los Angels. And by the way, THAT guy had also never worked in a major market before taking the job with the Dodgers. These days, he’s taking a wrecking ball to Major League Baseball.
At a certain point, a baseball executive needs to have some ability to swerve if results on the field are different than expected. I don't think Cherington thought 2013 was going to turn out as well as it did, for example. This year the Red Sox might have expected a bridge year but instead found themselves leading the division at the deadline. The choice to be made then was whether to try to take advantage of their favorable position or to consider it gravy.

Bloom has every right to be obsessed with 2022-2032, but in my experience flags fly forever, opportunties to win won come around much less often than people think, and that when a chance lands on your lap you need to take full advantage of it. We'll have to see if Bloom's confidence in the next 10 years is well-placed.
 

BringBackMo

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Ownership radically changed course after winning the 2018 World Series.

Bloom isn't here to remake the Sox as the Dodgers. He's here to make the Sox a higher payroll version of the Rays (who oddly enough traded away Rich Hill even as they were leading the division and he is still a good pitcher).

As JMOH pointed out, I wish the Sox would commit to one path or another. If the goal is to rebuild the system and compete in a couple of years, then sell off players who real contenders would find useful and get more minor league assets. If the goal is to compete right away, then bring in better players for the major league club to make a run this year. Instead, Bloom kind of waffled. He brought in 2 bad pitchers and an injured player because they didn't cost much, but that neither restocks the farm system nor does it help the major league team. And so now they tried to have it both ways and instead have nothing: neither a strengthened farm system nor a major league team that can complete for a title. It's a puzzling approach.
Also, how did ownership radically shift after 2018? They brought the same team back for 2019 and were top contenders but came up short. Dombrowski signed Sale and Eovaldi to questionable extensions, which were contributors to the team’s inability to keep Mookie without incurring crippling penalties in the draft and international market. And then Shaughnessy reported that Dombrowski had alienated much of the front office and ownership and he was fired.

If anything shifted around 2018, it was how the best teams in baseball operate. TB, LA, SF, hell even the Yankees, all were demonstrating extreme commitment to flexibility, building their minor league systems, and being incredibly disciplined with their 40-man rosters. So the Sox went out and hired one of the best young executives in baseball, a guy native to this approach. Any fair reading of Red Sox ownership has to conclude that they are as engaged and competitive as ever. I just don’t understand this idea that their priorities have somehow changed.
 

moondog80

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Part and parcel with that is the burning need to treat the minor league players better. There's no excuse for what conditions they are forced to live in. Most of these guys get maybe a $1000 signing bonus; actually going into debt while playing ball because of housing costs is criminally neglectful and the teams should be ashamed of themselves.
On this, I think you are correct. If for no other reason, they should do it for the return on investment. Maybe some teams are already doing this, but a system-wide nutrition program seems like a no brainer. Just for a starting point, let's say we're talking about 4.5 minor league teams (because one of them is short season), 30 players each, 180 days, and 200 dollars per person per day. That's 4.8 million per year (the actual cost would be less because you could subtract out whatever it is teams are already spending). There would be logistical challenges, but even if you have to cut some corners on the road and really implement it at home, how many extra major league quality players do you have to develop for it to be worth it, in an environment where guys like Garrett Richards cost 10 mil in free agency? This especially applies to teams like the Red Sox, who have very few avenues left to flex their financial muscle.


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/oakland-athletics-minor-league-baseball-meals-food-fail
 

BringBackMo

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At a certain point, a baseball executive needs to have some ability to swerve if results on the field are different than expected. I don't think Cherington thought 2013 was going to turn out as well as it did, for example. This year the Red Sox might have expected a bridge year but instead found themselves leading the division at the deadline. The choice to be made then was whether to try to take advantage of their favorable position or to consider it gravy.

Bloom has every right to be obsessed with 2022-2032, but in my experience flags fly forever, opportunties to win won come around much less often than people think, and that when a chance lands on your lap you need to take full advantage of it. We'll have to see if Bloom's confidence in the next 10 years is well-placed.
One last reply and then I’ll give you the final word if you want it:

The whole point here is that I don’t believe that the results on the field in 2021 were unexpected. That’s not to say that they were likely, just that a smart exec like Bloom doesn’t come up with one win-total estimate. He comes up with a range. It’s a similar concept to modern poker in which you don’t try to put you opponent on a single hand and make decisions related to that specific holding. Instead, you put your opponent on a range of possible hands and make decisions based on that entire range. There is no way that Bloom didn’t account for an outcome in which the Sox were in first place heading into the deadline. But the decisions he was making for the entire organization were not based just on that one particular outcome in this one particular year. So either Bloom is a moron who didn’t understand that he had a rare chance to win the World Series in 2021…or, he wasn’t making decisions based upon maximizing his chances to win the World Series in 2021.

And finally, I keep hearing that these kinds of opportunities don’t come around that often. That’s silly. The Sox were in first place roughly two-thirds of the way through the year. I mean, we just went through a stretch where they won the division for three straight years. And there are the wild card slots. The Red Sox, it is safe to say, will be in something akin to the situation they were in at the deadline with much regularity in the years ahead.
 

tims4wins

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I thought that for a while but honestly no. JWH is less engaged but Werner is more engaged, and I don't see Henry selling the only reason anyone in this country knows who the hell he is. Also the Red Sox are engaging in a Braves-like real estate renovation around Fenway which will be appealling to him as well.

I think he brought Chaim in here because he liked what TB is doing (and frankly what they are doing on that payroll is extremely impressive) and wanted some of that in Boston. Theo won but spent a ton of money. Same with Ben and same with DD. Maybe the next challenge is winning like TB without spending $300 million.
Eh. DD was the same as Theo in that while he relied less on the farm system, he spent a ton of money to bring in talented players. Theo developed the system more but both guys won with extremely high payrolls. I don't see DD as a detour at all.
Let's not forget that one of the reasons Theo ended up eventually leaving was because he felt the pressure to spend from the fandom. It seemed as if he had total control of the ship, he would have relied more on the minors. But he had to spend partly keep the fandom calm. And also due to the pressure to win EVERY year. He would have been ok not making the playoffs once every several years. But the market demanded a contender every year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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At a certain point, a baseball executive needs to have some ability to swerve if results on the field are different than expected. I don't think Cherington thought 2013 was going to turn out as well as it did, for example. This year the Red Sox might have expected a bridge year but instead found themselves leading the division at the deadline. The choice to be made then was whether to try to take advantage of their favorable position or to consider it gravy.

Bloom has every right to be obsessed with 2022-2032, but in my experience flags fly forever, opportunties to win won come around much less often than people think, and that when a chance lands on your lap you need to take full advantage of it. We'll have to see if Bloom's confidence in the next 10 years is well-placed.
Cherington "swerved" as you put it to acquire Jake Peavy and Brayan Villarreal. That's it, that was all Cherington did at the deadline. That took one piece from the big league team (the starting 3B at the time, which like 1B now is a hole we were all screaming for him to fix) and three 19 year old lottery tickets to accomplish. It was a much more buyer-friendly market (5 deals on deadline day in total, compared to over 20 this season). And it's not like the standings looked much different than they did 10 days ago. They were a half game out of first when the Peavy deal was done.

Cherington did have the luxury of many vestigial pieces of the so-called Greatest Team Ever as the backbone to build around and none of the financial constraints thanks to the Punto trade. He really didn't have to swerve much at all. Just bat 1.000 on his winter acquisitions (Victorino, Napoli, Gomes, Dempster, Uehara, Drew, etc) and let the team do its thing.
 

cantor44

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By your log

By your logic, the job of Bloom at this particular trading deadline was to either dramatically restock the farm system or go all in on maximizing this team’s chances this year to win the World Series. That is simply not the way a competent baseball executive would approach this entire organization at this particular stage of its transformation. And this is not Monday morning quarterbacking on my part.

I made at least five posts in the weeks leading up to the deadline in which I pointed out that Bloom would almost certainly not trade any of his top prospects because he wants to build an organization capable of competing for championships every year while maintaining a perennially loaded farm system. In other words, the Dodgers East. My prediction was that he would acquire a lefty 1B and maybe a bullpen arm, and that he would trade only mid-level prospects to do so. (Aldo Ramirez was actually a better prospect than I expected him to trade.)

This was an easy call to have nailed. Anyone paying attention at all understood the plan. This is, was, and always has been a bridge year. When Bloom constructed this roster there were, of course, multiple outcomes for it, probably from 75 to 95 wins. My belief is that regardless of the actual outcome, this was ALWAYS going to be his approach at the deadline. Even if this team were looking like the best in baseball at the deadline, he was never going to spend heavily to improve it. A portion of this board is obsessed with the performance of the 2021 Red Sox. Bloom, in my opinion, is obsessed with 2022-2032.

In sum, posters cannot say that they really support Bloom as CBO but believe he whiffed this deadline. This deadline IS Bloom as CBO. Will you and others here ultimately be proved right? Is Bloom’s approach folly? We’ll find out. But I believe in it more than I’ve believed in anything this team has done since Theo was in charge. And that’s not blind faith in Bloom, that’s recognition of the fact that the guy who taught him is executing the same plan to perfection in Los Angels. And by the way, THAT guy had also never worked in a major market before taking the job with the Dodgers. These days, he’s taking a wrecking ball to Major League Baseball.
My question to your (intelligent) conjecture about Bloom: did he have different contingencies depending on where in the 75-95 game spectrum the 2021 Sox were on? Because it would also seem silly if he didn't. If there was merely A PLAN, and that was the plan no matter what, that seems kinda inflexible, no ...? Certainly he'd sell parts if they were on the lower end? And, one might think, give up a bit more in prospects costs if on the upper end. To that end, I think some folks here indeed noticed there was a plan and wished there had been more flexibility with it, given the team was performing at their ceiling and a championship suddenly seemed in the realm of realistic possibilities. It didn't seem he showed any flexibility.

And the subsequent question becomes if Bloom gave up, say a couple more solid mid level prospects (akin to what SF did to get Bryant, say), would that really have derailed his 2022-2032 plans? To me the discussion keeps feeling like a zero sum game - either preserve the long term plan or eviscerate it ... but isn't it all along a continuum, or matters of degree, etc.?

THAT SAID, this fan, at least, wish he has given 2021 a little more love (not destroyed the farm mind you), given that it suddenly was a bird in hand.
 

walt in maryland

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Let's not forget that one of the reasons Theo ended up eventually leaving was because he felt the pressure to spend from the fandom. It seemed as if he had total control of the ship, he would have relied more on the minors. But he had to spend partly keep the fandom calm. And also due to the pressure to win EVERY year. He would have been ok not making the playoffs once every several years. But the market demanded a contender every year.
I'm paraphrasing because I can't find the actual quote, but Theo realized early on that the Red Sox couldn't make decisions based on what the fans and media said, and especially not on what the Yankees happened to be doing. Bloom is a very smart guy who seems to have the same view. They have a plan for long-term success, and he isn't going to move far off it just because the Red Sox were better than expected for the season's first four months.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I'm paraphrasing because I can't find the actual quote, but Theo realized early on that the Red Sox couldn't make decisions based on what the fans and media said, and especially not on what the Yankees happened to be doing. Bloom is a very smart guy who seems to have the same view. They have a plan for long-term success, and he isn't going to move far off it just because the Red Sox were better than expected for the season's first four months.
I believe Theo said that a few months after re-acquiring Mirabelli, which he admitted was a panicky and ill-considered thing to have done. He got swept up in the mania about Wakefield's knuckler and the Yankees were in town so he made a bad trade.
 

cantor44

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Why did you crop out the flag for financial flexibility?

It seems obvious that they changed their approach after 2018. We've talked many times about how odd it was to hand Sale and Eovaldi immense extensions after the WS, then suddenly do an abrupt about face after the 2019 season, fire DD, and trade Mookie because they suddenly were concerned about the luxury tax threshold. Had they really been thinking about the threshold, they would not have extended Sale and Eovaldi (and certainly neither extension has been a good use of that money).

Something changed in the organization's thinking. If they were concerned about the farm system, why hire DD in the first place? His MO was widely known before coming to Boston. It's incredibly confusing to me.
Actually, I think there is a direct causal relationship between signing Sale and Eovaldi and not signing Betts. They put their priorities in the wrong place. I think they gave DD carte blanche, and then realized ... oh shit ...wait a sec ...

As incredible as this ownership has been, they have been a very reactive bunch -swinging between philosophies and approaches. Missing out on one player and than overextending for the next to compensate (thank you Rusney) ...Cherington was great at building and protecting the farm but not as hot at trades and made some bad FA signings. After some last place finishes, they canned him and whipsawed to a big spender wheeler dealer. After the wheeler dealer painted them into the corner, they whipsawed back to a build the farm long term guy.

They'll spend again (and there are reasons to dip under the luxury tax beyond money as we all know). Shit, they're spending now, have one of the highest payrolls in baseball.

I hope that Bloom works out, and he - and the ownership and organization - find balance, and become less bi-polar. (Bloom's actions at the deadline have me worried we're in the midst of another overcompensation, but maybe we need another year to fairly assess that).
 

tims4wins

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I'm paraphrasing because I can't find the actual quote, but Theo realized early on that the Red Sox couldn't make decisions based on what the fans and media said, and especially not on what the Yankees happened to be doing. Bloom is a very smart guy who seems to have the same view. They have a plan for long-term success, and he isn't going to move far off it just because the Red Sox were better than expected for the season's first four months.
I believe Theo said that a few months after re-acquiring Mirabelli, which he admitted was a panicky and ill-considered thing to have done. He got swept up in the mania about Wakefield's knuckler and the Yankees were in town so he made a bad trade.
I think you are both correct, but where did the pressure come from on the signings like Carl Crawford, etc.? Was it from ownership?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think you are both correct, but where did the pressure come from on the signings like Carl Crawford, etc.? Was it from ownership?
I don't think Crawford was from ownership, Theo really did think he was still a dynamic player. There have been musings that Werner in particular wanted more "sexy" signings but I'm not sure Crawford falls into that category.
 

tims4wins

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I don't think Crawford was from ownership, Theo really did think he was still a dynamic player. There have been musings that Werner in particular wanted more "sexy" signings but I'm not sure Crawford falls into that category.
I just found these articles. JWH was against the Crawford signing: https://www.si.com/si-wire/2012/01/12/theo-epstein-john-henry-didnt-want-to-sign-carl-crawford

Also this one about "feeding the monster"

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1221215-theo-epstein-defends-red-sox-tenure-blames-lackey-signing-on-the-monster



“You had the realities of being in a big market and being in a really competitive atmosphere and a place that wasn’t that patient,” Epstein said. “Then, on top of that, we had the reality of what we came to call “The Monster"—which was what happened after we won in ’04. There became such an emphasis in the Red Sox organization of doing things bigger, better—pushing to be more marketable, more profitable, not to lose any fans, to keep pushing these numbers. It’s perfectly understandable, and I don’t blame anybody for it. It’s sort of a natural consequence of winning and a natural consequence of being in business."

"When you’re in a big market, and you win, and you’re up against the Yankees, and ratings are what they are, and attendance is what it is; no one wants to go backwards as a business," Epstein explained.

"I think if I learned a lesson from that offseason, it was to never feel the need to do something," he admitted. "If you’re trying to avoid one move that you don’t think is going to work out, don’t then settle for a different move that maybe doesn’t check all the boxes. You don’t have to get everything done in one offseason just because of what’s going on in the environment around you.”
 

scottyno

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I thought that for a while but honestly no. JWH is less engaged but Werner is more engaged, and I don't see Henry selling the only reason anyone in this country knows who the hell he is. Also the Red Sox are engaging in a Braves-like real estate renovation around Fenway which will be appealling to him as well.

I think he brought Chaim in here because he liked what TB is doing (and frankly what they are doing on that payroll is extremely impressive) and wanted some of that in Boston. Theo won but spent a ton of money. Same with Ben and same with DD. Maybe the next challenge is winning like TB without spending $300 million.
Bloom is spending a ton of money and there's no reason to think he won't keep spending it. And Theo and Ben didn't have to deal with additional luxury tax penalties beyond money, though you've already decided those aren't real so you won't acknowledge the difference.
 

chrisfont9

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Ownership radically changed course after winning the 2018 World Series.

Bloom isn't here to remake the Sox as the Dodgers. He's here to make the Sox a higher payroll version of the Rays (who oddly enough traded away Rich Hill even as they were leading the division and he is still a good pitcher).

As JMOH pointed out, I wish the Sox would commit to one path or another. If the goal is to rebuild the system and compete in a couple of years, then sell off players who real contenders would find useful and get more minor league assets. If the goal is to compete right away, then bring in better players for the major league club to make a run this year. Instead, Bloom kind of waffled. He brought in 2 bad pitchers and an injured player because they didn't cost much, but that neither restocks the farm system nor does it help the major league team. And so now they tried to have it both ways and instead have nothing: neither a strengthened farm system nor a major league team that can complete for a title. It's a puzzling approach.
To be fair, it's not like Schwarber is out for the season. He was an MVP candidate until he got hurt, and he's not that hurt.
 

soxhop411

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Bloom is spending a ton of money and there's no reason to think he won't keep spending it. And Theo and Ben didn't have to deal with additional luxury tax penalties beyond money, though you've already decided those aren't real so you won't acknowledge the difference.
yah.. MLB has a de-facto salary cap even though MLB wont admit it is onw
 

chrisfont9

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At a certain point, a baseball executive needs to have some ability to swerve if results on the field are different than expected. I don't think Cherington thought 2013 was going to turn out as well as it did, for example. This year the Red Sox might have expected a bridge year but instead found themselves leading the division at the deadline. The choice to be made then was whether to try to take advantage of their favorable position or to consider it gravy.

Bloom has every right to be obsessed with 2022-2032, but in my experience flags fly forever, opportunties to win won come around much less often than people think, and that when a chance lands on your lap you need to take full advantage of it. We'll have to see if Bloom's confidence in the next 10 years is well-placed.
This team has gotten clobbered repeatedly by the Astros, so if we are being realistic about their title chance (something like 6% right now) then it's not a team you sell out to improve, unless you think there's a move that puts you over the top of Houston. Scherzer went west. Nobody else could elevate this team in that way.
 

scottyno

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yah.. MLB has a de-facto salary cap even though MLB wont admit it is onw
Yeah, what a terrible decision by the players union to let that in. Now in the next CBA talks this offseason they'll end up giving something else up in exchange for getting rid of or weakening those additional penalties.

Yankees paid the tax every year from 2003-17, they've paid it once since then. Dodgers paid it each of the first 5 years of the new ownership group from 2013-17, once since then. Giants paid it 2015-17, not since. Only the Sox and Nats have paid it in consecutive years since the new penalties were added.
 

Rovin Romine

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To be fair, it's not like Schwarber is out for the season. He was an MVP candidate until he got hurt, and he's not that hurt.
The play/no play line is more important than the level of hurtness that keeps him on one side of it.

The trade deadline was July 30th. 105 games had been played by the Sox at the end of that day. 57 games remained.

By today's end 10 more games will been played with 47 remaining. Schwarber will have missed 17% of the post-deadline games.

He was injured on July 3rd, with a "significant" hamstring strain. Recovery time varies, but he hasn't started a rehab assignment yet, and was reported to have a "minor" groin injury as well.

If he's out for another 10, he'll have missed 35% of the post-deadline games. And it would take a HOF in their prime of primes to turn a drifting season around in 37 games. . .


So good news can't come fast enough, really.
 

soxin6

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This team has gotten clobbered repeatedly by the Astros, so if we are being realistic about their title chance (something like 6% right now) then it's not a team you sell out to improve, unless you think there's a move that puts you over the top of Houston. Scherzer went west. Nobody else could elevate this team in that way.
There is a difference between not selling out and basically getting nothing that will help the team. Schwarber could help the team, but no one knows when/if he will be in the lineup for the Sox. Both of the relievers that were brought in have been bad to putrid. I agree that they were not likely to beat the Astros or the White Sox in a 7 game series to get to the WS, but collapsing and missing the playoffs should not be an acceptable outcome either. People have given Bloom way too much credit because he has yet to build a team that wins the WS. Until he shows that he knows how to do that, he will be scrutinized for every move he does and doesn’t make.
 

chrisfont9

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There is a difference between not selling out and basically getting nothing that will help the team. Schwarber could help the team, but no one knows when/if he will be in the lineup for the Sox. Both of the relievers that were brought in have been bad to putrid. I agree that they were not likely to beat the Astros or the White Sox in a 7 game series to get to the WS, but collapsing and missing the playoffs should not be an acceptable outcome either. People have given Bloom way too much credit because he has yet to build a team that wins the WS. Until he shows that he knows how to do that, he will be scrutinized for every move he does and doesn’t make.
Eh, you talk like Schwarber might never return. That's just not accurate. We should get 6+ weeks in the regular season from him, plus playoffs, and maybe a chance to re-sign him, which is a good return for a minimal outlay. Also I don't think the Red Sox want to invest in anything less than a legitimate shot at a title, not because making it to the LCS isn't a good thing, but trading significant prospects only to lose in the LCS is definitely NOT a good thing. If the current roster collapses and misses the playoffs, but holds all their cards for 2022 and beyond, that's far better.
 

chrisfont9

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The play/no play line is more important than the level of hurtness that keeps him on one side of it.

The trade deadline was July 30th. 105 games had been played by the Sox at the end of that day. 57 games remained.

By today's end 10 more games will been played with 47 remaining. Schwarber will have missed 17% of the post-deadline games.

He was injured on July 3rd, with a "significant" hamstring strain. Recovery time varies, but he hasn't started a rehab assignment yet, and was reported to have a "minor" groin injury as well.

If he's out for another 10, he'll have missed 35% of the post-deadline games. And it would take a HOF in their prime of primes to turn a drifting season around in 37 games. . .


So good news can't come fast enough, really.
Well they are down 4 games, so if he makes it back with 40 games remaining, or 35, and we add a huge bat for the stretch run, that's a good return. I agree, it's not optimal, but what alternative was? Paying more for Rizzo and his idiotic refusal to get vaccinated, which now has him and god knows who else on the covid list?
 

Rovin Romine

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Well they are down 4 games, so if he makes it back with 40 games remaining, or 35, and we add a huge bat for the stretch run, that's a good return. I agree, it's not optimal, but what alternative was? Paying more for Rizzo and his idiotic refusal to get vaccinated, which now has him and god knows who else on the covid list?
I wasn't purporting to address any of that. You said: "To be fair, it's not like Schwarber is out for the season. He was an MVP candidate until he got hurt, and he's not that hurt."

I think the numbers put that in context, and it's less rosy of a picture than one might think. He hasn't played a game yet. The clock is ticking.
 

RobertS975

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My question to your (intelligent) conjecture about Bloom: did he have different contingencies depending on where in the 75-95 game spectrum the 2021 Sox were on? Because it would also seem silly if he didn't. If there was merely A PLAN, and that was the plan no matter what, that seems kinda inflexible, no ...? Certainly he'd sell parts if they were on the lower end? And, one might think, give up a bit more in prospects costs if on the upper end. To that end, I think some folks here indeed noticed there was a plan and wished there had been more flexibility with it, given the team was performing at their ceiling and a championship suddenly seemed in the realm of realistic possibilities. It didn't seem he showed any flexibility.

And the subsequent question becomes if Bloom gave up, say a couple more solid mid level prospects (akin to what SF did to get Bryant, say), would that really have derailed his 2022-2032 plans? To me the discussion keeps feeling like a zero sum game - either preserve the long term plan or eviscerate it ... but isn't it all along a continuum, or matters of degree, etc.?

THAT SAID, this fan, at least, wish he has given 2021 a little more love (not destroyed the farm mind you), given that it suddenly was a bird in hand.
I wish this board architecture had the ability to put "likes" on a post. When your leading at the quarter pole, you usually pour it on to the finish. We'll see...I always said that printing the World Series tickets in July was a mistake!
 
This team has a lot of viable paths. Schwarber could be a part of it, but returns to normalcy from JD, X or both could be huge parts of the puzzle. Sale and Houck are also major factors, and ERod remains a very good candidate for improvement. If there is something that is causing his performance to lag his FIP by so much then perhaps it's fixable, and if not then all he needs is better luck.

I think that the Red Sox with normal performance from JD, X, Sale and ERod would be solidly competitive with any team in baseball. Schwarber would be a bonus.
 

soxhop411

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I think that both the cheers that this team was going to coast to the postseason in June and the current doom and gloom are overstated.

The way I see it, there have been three phases to this season. I'm not cherrypicking these dates, so I'm sure a starker contrast could be drawn if the dates were chosen more intentionally.

  • Through the end of May, the team had scored 269 runs and allowed 224 and went 32-21 (pythag: 30.9-22.1, or +.0208 per game)
  • Between the end of May and the ASG, the team scored 195 runs and allowed 183 and went 23-15 (pythag: 20.1-17.9, or +.0763 per game)
  • From the ASG until now, the team scored 79 runs and allowed 102 runs and went 10-12 (pythag: 8.5-13.5, or +.0682 per game)
I've been watching Fangraph's BaseRuns pretty closely throughout the season, and my recollection is that during the first phase of the season the Sox weren't really outperforming their pythag in a substantial way. IIRC there were times when they were a game or two up, but nothing alarming.

The overperformance largely occurred during the second third, where the Sox put up a really nice record against stiff competition despite having a relatively flat run differential. The overperformance continued in late July, but in the last two weeks or so the team has really cratered and the overall overperformance in this third stretch isn't quite as extreme. For example, since July 28th the sox are 3-10 while their pythag has them at 2.67-10.33, or +.0254 per game played, similar to the first third of the year.

One can make two basic arguments that this team is going to fail: that the team has been far outperforming its pythag and is due for a hard regression (which is starting to play out), or that the team's true talent level is well below that of what we've seen over the course of the season in aggregate and thus is due for a hard regression.

So that begs the question as posed in the thread title: which portion of the season is the "real" Red Sox?

Through the end of May, the Sox were playing at a level that could compete with any team in baseball. Since then, they've played like an 80-ish win team.

Let's look at some more numbers, starting with the hitting by wOBA:

  • Vaz: .287 (pre-June)/.284(June to present)
  • Plawecki: .305/.383
  • Santana: SS/.219
  • Dalbec: .279/.286
  • Kike: .299/.362
  • Arroyo: .309/.373
  • Gonzalez: .259/.253
  • X: .398/.348
  • Devers: .391/.381
  • Verdugo: .346/.322
  • Renfroe: .320/.327
  • Franchy: .222/.267
  • JD: .415/.338
  • Duran: -/.244
JD, Devers and X carried the team in April and May, supported by Verdugo and Renfroe. Since then, Devers has kept it up but X and especially JD have cratered (particularly since the ASG). Meanwhile Arroyo, Kike and (strangely) Plawecki have really stepped it up. Unfortunately Arroyo got injured, so the improvements from Plawecki and especially Kike haven't been enough to offset the decline of X and JD.

Franchy, Gonzalez, Dalbec, Santana, Vaz, and now Duran have continued to be awful.

If X and JD can play to their season averages going forward, this team could look really scary on offense. If JD plays more to his career norms (which could easily fall in the .380-.420 wOBA range) and you factor in Schwarber then I think the lineup is competitive with anyone else out there. It's far from guaranteed, but there are plenty of ways that this offense could get back to doing what it did in April and May.

Let's look at the pitching staff:

  • Starters in April/May: 3.37 FIP, 4.2 ERA
  • Starters since June 1: 4.5 FIP, 5.07 ERA
  • Relievers in April/May: 3.61 FIP, 3.73 ERA
  • Relievers since June 1: 4.13 FIP, 3.8 ERA
The variation in the bullpen is pretty mild. Cora has been using the worst relievers a lot more recently to give the top performers some relative recuperation, and that's going to show up in the numbers. But I don't think we'll be seeing much of them in the playoffs if the team gets there.

The starters have undeniably been much worse.

  • Eovaldi: 2.36 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 4.01 ERA | 3.14 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 4.13 ERA
  • Rodriguez: 3.74 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 5.64 ERA | 3.02 FIP, 3.19 xFIP, 5.02 ERA
  • Pivetta: 3.45 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 3.86 ERA | 4.81 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 4.73 ERA
  • Perez: 3.66 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 3.55 ERA | HORRIBLE
  • Richards: 3.89 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 3.83 ERA | HORRIBLE
If you want to make a case for why the team was overperforming in April and May, I think here is where you will find your best argument. Pivetta, Perez and Richards were all pitching WAY ahead of their xFIPs. Unless there was some special sauce that was helping this trio suppress home runs, it was inevitable that the wheels would come off the bus. The sticky stuff crackdown seems to have exacerbated that further for Richards and perhaps for Perez. Both of them have absolutely fallen off a cliff and are just not major league caliber pitchers at the moment.

Pivetta is a middle case. His performance has tanked, but his xFIP is actually a hair better than it was in April/May. He's not going back to that 3.86 ERA, but he could be a serviceable 5th starter.

Eovaldi has tailed off a bit in his FIP but his xFIP and ERA are right around where they were. He just had a putrid start against an incredible offensive team. Not sure that it's worth extrapolating anything from that.

E-Rod is a very weird case. His peripherals have been great all year but his BABIP luck has been awful and thus he is one of the biggest ERA underperformers in baseball this year. Since June 1 his peripherals have actually gotten better, and his ERA has improved but not by as much as one would hope. He is a decent bet to improve over the course of the rest of the season.

The good news is that we have Houck and Sale coming in to take over for Perez and Richards. Will the rotation as a whole perform like it did in April/May? Probably not. But it could be close, and there's a reasonable scenario where the rotation ends up in a better place from a playoffs perspective. If Rodriguez fixes whatever his problem is (or just gets lucky), Eovaldi keeps doing what he is doing, and Sale/Houck hit their potentials it could be a very competitive rotation.

TL;DR: The Sox are not looking great now, but those who are saying that the team's current performance is reflective of a regression that was inevitably coming all season wrong are overstating their case. The team was legitimately performing at a very high level through the end of May, and recapturing that level is absolutely plausible. If X and JD start hitting again (plus/minus Schwarber and/or Arroyo) and the second half performers like Kike keep doing their thing, then the offense in the last month and a half could actually be better than it was in April and May. The pitching staff as a whole is probably not going to return to April/May levels, but if Sale and Houck can do their thing we might have a more top heavy staff that is better suited for the playoffs than what we had in April and May. If the Red Sox play at an April/May level they have a real shot at the division and a very good chance at a wild card even if they don't overperform their pythag.
And that’s where the problem is. unless they (JDM/Xander/Vaz etc) turn things around (and Barnes somehow fixes himself) there is no trades that Bloom could have done to fix the Sox. When your highly paid stars are dragging the Sox down with their poor play there is nothing you can do.

Bloom would have had to trade for an entirely different lineup to fix this mess. And that’s just not possible
 
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Delicious Sponge

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Sale coming back will help. If Schwarber can play it will help. Having Verdugo back will help. But they need a turn around almost as dramatic as this collapse.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Sale coming back will help. If Schwarber can play it will help. Having Verdugo back will help. But they need a turn around almost as dramatic as this collapse.
They need a 15 game winning streak to turn things around and that won’t happen.

Sale is getting back too late to make any real difference, they’re 5 games out, and likely will be 7 out once the Rays leave town given they look like they’ll never win again. The season is essentially over.

This is every bit as bad as September 2011 and the organization should do a hard look at their practices because of it. From a lack of urgency to get Sale back sooner to a lack of addressing the first base problem all season to Matt Barnes doing his usual August swoon, this team has failed in every way. Bloom did nothing to address those issues.

A total system collapse like this is unacceptable. I hope they re-examine their decision making process, it’s been shown to be lacking.
 

soxhop411

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They need a 15 game winning streak to turn things around and that won’t happen.

Sale is getting back too late to make any real difference, they’re 5 games out, and likely will be 7 out once the Rays leave town given they look like they’ll never win again. The season is essentially over.

This is every bit as bad as September 2011 and the organization should do a hard look at their practices because of it. From a lack of urgency to get Sale back sooner to a lack of addressing the first base problem all season to Matt Barnes doing his usual August swoon, this team has failed in every way. Bloom did nothing to address those issues.

A total system collapse like this is unacceptable. I hope they re-examine their decision making process, it’s been shown to be lacking.
Rizzo has Covid so he would not be helping the Sox right now. CJ Cron from COL would be nice. But its the Rockies we are talking about. They didn’t trade Story at the deadline and then Story torched the team and owners to the media.

but beyond that. Trading for a 1B would have done little to help when we still have a black hole at catcher, DH (JDM) and Xander is still not “healthy”
After his wrist issues.
 
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scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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They need a 15 game winning streak to turn things around and that won’t happen.

Sale is getting back too late to make any real difference, they’re 5 games out, and likely will be 7 out once the Rays leave town given they look like they’ll never win again. The season is essentially over.

This is every bit as bad as September 2011 and the organization should do a hard look at their practices because of it. From a lack of urgency to get Sale back sooner to a lack of addressing the first base problem all season to Matt Barnes doing his usual August swoon, this team has failed in every way. Bloom did nothing to address those issues.

A total system collapse like this is unacceptable. I hope they re-examine their decision making process, it’s been shown to be lacking.
If the season ended today they'd be in the playoffs, so describing that as being 5 games out and the season being over is interesting
 

bankshot1

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I've seen the words "regression to the mean" used by several posters to explain how Sox went from an expected .500 team (about 81-84 wins) playing lucky come from behind winning baseball, 62-39 ( 61.4%) to a team finding ways to lose almost 80% of the time over the next 14 games, going 3-11 (21.4%). I'm not sure regression to the mean captures the disheartening losses we've experienced over the few weeks. While my math skills are insufficient to determine how often a .614 team playing exciting winning baseball (and they established that record over 100 games) plays bad .214 baseball for weeks on end.

Regression to the mean seems a lazy out for front office inaction when they could have been more proactive and maybe stretch and pay up for a chance at a pennant.
 

soxhop411

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Limping lineup
Remember the early days of the season, when J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers carried the Red Sox — and left open the question of what might happen if they didn’t excel? It appears we have an answer.

The trio hasn’t been bad. Devers (.266 average, .864 OPS) and Martinez (.263, .816) have been respectable since July 6. Bogaerts, fighting a wrist injury and then the poor mechanics that it wrought, has struggled to a .241 average and .719 OPS during the period.

Still, while all three have performed below their season lines, those numbers don’t quite explain the magnitude of the team’s offensive plummet. The Sox are averaging just below four runs per game since July 6. A team that was held to four or fewer runs less than half of the time (48 percent) through 86 games has been thusly contained 19 times (68 percent of the time) during its current 11-17 stumble, going 4-15 in those games.

So what gives? Put simply, they have been awful in the most promising situations.
Devers (.154 average, .688 OPS), Martinez (.233/.639), Alex Verdugo (.143/.412), and Bogaerts (.067/.361) have all struggled with runners in scoring position since July 6. From July 22-Aug. 6, the Sox have been among the worst in baseball in virtually every statistical category with runners in scoring position.

Over a stretch from July 25-Aug. 5, the Sox built their identity around squandered scoring opportunities. In 22 plate appearances with runners on third and fewer than two outs, they scored just four runs (two on sacrifice flies, two on ground outs), going 0 for 17 with two walks, one hit batter, 10 strikeouts, and two double plays.
Inside the Red Sox' slideComparing a number of key statistics from the start of the season through July 5, and from July 5 through last week.
Record 54-32 (.628) 11-17 (.393)
Rotation
ERA 4.32 (20th) 5.78 (27th)
Innings per start 5.3 (9th) 4.6 (28th)
Strikeout rate 22.7% (19th) 25.7% (4th)
Walk rate 7.8% (12th) 7.2% (12th)
Home runs per 9 1.0 (5th) 1.7 (23rd)
Bullpen
ERA 3.48 (7th) 4.65 (22nd)
Strikeout rate 26.6% (5th) 24.8 (13th)
Walk rate 10.9% (22nd) 9.7% (19th)
Home runs per 9 1.0 (10th) 0.8 (5th)
Blown saves 14 (T-20th) 2 (T-3rd)
Blown save %* 13.5% (8th) 13.3% (T-6th)
Offense
Runs per game 5.12 (3rd) 3.96 (24th)
Average .259 (3rd) .251 (13th)

* - BLOWN SAVES DIVIDED BY SAVES PLUS
More from The globe here.
I've seen the words "regression to the mean" used by several posters to explain how Sox went from an expected .500 team playing lucky come from behind winning baseball, 62-39 ( 61.4%) to a team finding ways to lose almost 80% of the time over the next 14 games, going 3-11 (21.4%). I'm not sure regression to the mean captures the disheartening losses we've experienced over the few weeks. While my math skills are insufficient to determine how often a .614 team playing exciting baseball (and they established that record over 100 games) plays bad .214 baseball for weeks on end.

Regression to the mean seems a lazy out for front office inaction when they could have been more proactive and maybe stretch and pay up for a chance at a pennant.
see above ^
 

cantor44

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Yeah, what a terrible decision by the players union to let that in. Now in the next CBA talks this offseason they'll end up giving something else up in exchange for getting rid of or weakening those additional penalties.

Yankees paid the tax every year from 2003-17, they've paid it once since then. Dodgers paid it each of the first 5 years of the new ownership group from 2013-17, once since then. Giants paid it 2015-17, not since. Only the Sox and Nats have paid it in consecutive years since the new penalties were added.
Is a salary cap - or a de facto salary cap bad for the game? I never quite liked when the Yankees had far and away the highest payroll. Eventually a couple teams, including the Red Sox joined them, but it always seemed vulgar to me and the worst of America in a way. MANY Yankees fans, at that time, would say to me, to rebut being reminded of the unfair financial advantage the Yankees had, "if you can't afford a baseball team, don't go into the baseball business" and the like, essentially conflating the competition on the field for a competition between businesses (like Coke trying to drive Pepsi out of business or something). That is decidedly NOT the point of a sports league - to drive your competitors into penury or even bankruptcy.

What's interesting to me is teams that excel not because they have far more money than the other teams, but because they're smarter.

This is a league (I don't believe Coke and Pepsi are part of league). A league should provide a fair playing field for its organizations, so that talent - on the field and in the front office -- wins the day, not the biggest wallet.

Certainly part of the Red Sox success has resulted from being a rich big market team, and I'd be a liar to say I didn't very much enjoy the four WS Championships. I have I have. Maybe that makes me a tad hypocritical. But as a fan of the game, I'm glad MLB has mechanisms that at least modestly mitigate financial inequity. And would be okay with even more.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Is a salary cap - or a de facto salary cap bad for the game? I never quite liked when the Yankees had far and away the highest payroll. Eventually a couple teams, including the Red Sox joined them, but it always seemed vulgar to me and the worst of America in a way. MANY Yankees fans, at that time, would say to me, to rebut being reminded of the unfair financial advantage the Yankees had, "if you can't afford a baseball team, don't go into the baseball business" and the like, essentially conflating the competition on the field for a competition between businesses (like Coke trying to drive Pepsi out of business or something). That is decidedly NOT the point of a sports league - to drive your competitors into penury or even bankruptcy.
Is it bad for the game? I think undoubtedly not, almost anything that gives more teams a chance to win is good for the game. But it's terrible for the players, especially when because it's not technically a cap it doesn't include a salary floor, which is why they'll never accept a cap.

The dodgers are spending $267 million this year, plus luxury tax penalties, the Indians are spending $48 million, that doesn't seem good for anyone, and you'd never see that big a disparity in any other major US sport. The current tax system has actually been working, the Rays As etc are showing that, though it would be nice to see the teams at the bottom spend a bit more since we know they're getting a lot of money from revenue sharing. Hopefully the next CBA includes provisions that force ownership to put every dollar they get from revenue sharing back into their team with no chance to pocket it. The yankees broke the pre luxury tax era, hopefully the dodgers don't break the current luxury tax era.
 

mauf

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They need a 15 game winning streak to turn things around and that won’t happen.

Sale is getting back too late to make any real difference, they’re 5 games out, and likely will be 7 out once the Rays leave town given they look like they’ll never win again. The season is essentially over.

This is every bit as bad as September 2011 and the organization should do a hard look at their practices because of it. From a lack of urgency to get Sale back sooner to a lack of addressing the first base problem all season to Matt Barnes doing his usual August swoon, this team has failed in every way. Bloom did nothing to address those issues.

A total system collapse like this is unacceptable. I hope they re-examine their decision making process, it’s been shown to be lacking.
You’re all over the place. “The season is essentially over” in mid-August, but the Sox should’ve rushed Sale back because an extra start or two would’ve made a difference?


Ownership radically changed course after winning the 2018 World Series.
Ownership radically changed course because DD made a couple blunders after 2018 which, coupled with his poor stewardship of the farm system and the moves he made to put us over the top, left the franchise in a hole. Bloom got hired to dig us out.


Bloom isn't here to remake the Sox as the Dodgers. He's here to make the Sox a higher payroll version of the Rays (who oddly enough traded away Rich Hill even as they were leading the division and he is still a good pitcher).
Yes, in the sense that Theo was tapped to turn the Red Sox into a high-rent version of the A’s almost 20 years ago. The Red Sox are being run now the way they’ve been run for most of the current ownership group’s tenure; the DD era was the aberration. I don’t regret it — as you say, flags fly forever — but we’re living through the hangover of mistakes made during his tenure.

As JMOH pointed out, I wish the Sox would commit to one path or another. If the goal is to rebuild the system and compete in a couple of years, then sell off players who real contenders would find useful and get more minor league assets. If the goal is to compete right away, then bring in better players for the major league club to make a run this year. Instead, Bloom kind of waffled. He brought in 2 bad pitchers and an injured player because they didn't cost much, but that neither restocks the farm system nor does it help the major league team. And so now they tried to have it both ways and instead have nothing: neither a strengthened farm system nor a major league team that can complete for a title. It's a puzzling approach.
Nothing puzzling about it. You can’t sell off when you’re in first place; you shouldn’t gut an already depleted farm system to fortify a team with as many flaws as this one. Inaction because you’re asleep at the switch is inexcusable, but making a conscious choice to take no action is perfectly fine. (And that assumes there was a big deal to be made — Rizzo might not play more games than Schwarber, and by all accounts Scherzer wanted to go west, so I’m not sure a difference-making acquisition was even possible.)

I think the post-deadline collapse vindicates Bloom’s decision not to invest in this year’s team, but to the extent he was inclined to do so, he didn’t have the assets to trade that Theo did in 2007 (even though Gagne didn’t work out) or BC did in 2013.