We have had a million theories and analyses over this. Yet other than everyone agreeing the wheels have fallen off, there still isn’t much consensus as to why.
Vote for as many reasons as you want.
Vote for as many reasons as you want.
The poll is just me trying to get a better sense of where people assign blame.I'd like to know more about how the OL is doing. Onwenu had been pretty good by most accounts until the last game. Sow has gotten solid reviews at guard. Trent Brown has been good when healthy, and Andrews is a rock in the middle. It's hard for me to watch and really understand how well they're doing, so I'd love to hear from people who have a more nuanced view than they suck (or don't suck).
Great post.I think the issue is that so many things aren't working well that each part is being hampered by every other part. For example, special teams deserve a category here...if you believe PFF on this (YMMV), some aspects of that have been truly horrendous,
Just eyeballing that chart it seems they have special teams worth about -35pts, a chunk worse than the 2nd worst team. Much of this is on returns - they're allowing too many yards on opponent returns and not getting enough on their own
After many, many years of special teams being a positive this is the second consecutive year where they've been a real problem. I don't know why, but I'm sure Bill has unhappy thoughts on this.
One of the implications of this is that they have bad starting positions - average drive starting positon is 25.6yd line which is tied for worst in the league. This is one area where the defense is not helping, they've been unable to generate more than a handful of turnovers which I believe is likely due to a few factors including our Judon-less pass rush being ineffective and the constant playing from behind not putting opponents under any pressure.
But they've also been a combination of bad and unfortunate on 4th downs. Last I saw they were ranked (by PFF again I believe) 2nd worst for win probability lost by kicking on 4th downs, so they're not going for it enough. Unfortunately when they are going for it, they've not been very successful, and they've particularly not been successful when it comes to turning those conversions into points. We can see this directly leading to lost games - in week 1 they went for it late on 4th down v the Eagles and failed and then promptly got a turnover which meant that simply kicking two field goals would've been enough. But later in the season a more conservative approach has also failed due to missed field goals.
(The same is true on 3rd downs, they're just not converting late downs well).
So, yeah, Mac sucks. Sure. But it's really been much more complicated than that (Sorry, SJH). It feels to me much more like lots of things not working, and very few things working well. In fact so many things have been not working in the past few games that the offense has almost entirely stopped functioning.
So the bad news is that there is a lot that needs fixing. The good news is that each fix should help not only the problem that it's directed against, but also make things easier for all the other parts of the mechanism. Putting Marcus Jones back in as the return man next year hopefully improves the kick return stats, which gives better starting positions, which means 50 yard drives result in FGs rather than punts from the 40, which means we're sometimes up a few points rather than down a few points, which means more pressure on the opponents to generate points against this defense, which means more opportunities to generate turnovers, which means the offense gets some freebies, which means the QB isn't trying to force things which aren't there, which means throwing fewer interceptions and so on.
That's potentially quite a large gain from a simple, obvious change that requires nothing more than a guy on the roster already getting healthy. When you add in possible difference makers from the draft and free-agency, it's easy to imagine the offense being dramatically better next year (I mean, they'll be better than this for sure almost regardless). That doesn't mean they'll be good, but since they're doing almost everything badly right now they can pretty much only go in one direction across the board.
This would explain a lot more were it not for the fact that the 2022 Patriots had the second best average starting field position in football, got 7 special teams/defensive TDs and the overall offensive production was still garbage. There are fundamental issues with the scheme and what they ask of players in this offense which are exacerbated by the lack of talent.I think the issue is that so many things aren't working well that each part is being hampered by every other part. For example, special teams deserve a category here...if you believe PFF on this (YMMV), some aspects of that have been truly horrendous,
Just eyeballing that chart it seems they have special teams worth about -35pts, a chunk worse than the 2nd worst team. Much of this is on returns - they're allowing too many yards on opponent returns and not getting enough on their own
After many, many years of special teams being a positive this is the second consecutive year where they've been a real problem. I don't know why, but I'm sure Bill has unhappy thoughts on this.
One of the implications of this is that they have bad starting positions - average drive starting positon is 25.6yd line which is tied for worst in the league. This is one area where the defense is not helping, they've been unable to generate more than a handful of turnovers which I believe is likely due to a few factors including our Judon-less pass rush being ineffective and the constant playing from behind not putting opponents under any pressure.
But they've also been a combination of bad and unfortunate on 4th downs. Last I saw they were ranked (by PFF again I believe) 2nd worst for win probability lost by kicking on 4th downs, so they're not going for it enough. Unfortunately when they are going for it, they've not been very successful, and they've particularly not been successful when it comes to turning those conversions into points. We can see this directly leading to lost games - in week 1 they went for it late on 4th down v the Eagles and failed and then promptly got a turnover which meant that simply kicking two field goals would've been enough. But later in the season a more conservative approach has also failed due to missed field goals.
(The same is true on 3rd downs, they're just not converting late downs well).
So, yeah, Mac sucks. Sure. But it's really been much more complicated than that (Sorry, SJH). It feels to me much more like lots of things not working, and very few things working well. In fact so many things have been not working in the past few games that the offense has almost entirely stopped functioning.
So the bad news is that there is a lot that needs fixing. The good news is that each fix should help not only the problem that it's directed against, but also make things easier for all the other parts of the mechanism. Putting Marcus Jones back in as the return man next year hopefully improves the kick return stats, which gives better starting positions, which means 50 yard drives result in FGs rather than punts from the 40, which means we're sometimes up a few points rather than down a few points, which means more pressure on the opponents to generate points against this defense, which means more opportunities to generate turnovers, which means the offense gets some freebies, which means the QB isn't trying to force things which aren't there, which means throwing fewer interceptions and so on.
That's potentially quite a large gain from a simple, obvious change that requires nothing more than a guy on the roster already getting healthy. When you add in possible difference makers from the draft and free-agency, it's easy to imagine the offense being dramatically better next year (I mean, they'll be better than this for sure almost regardless). That doesn't mean they'll be good, but since they're doing almost everything badly right now they can pretty much only go in one direction across the board.
I don't disagree with you. When I say lots of things aren't working and very few things are, I think the scheme is an obvious one that isn't. Whether that means the scheme needs to change, the coaching needs to change, the players need to change or just the whole thing needs a bit more time I don't know. But the combination is clearly not working right now.This would explain a lot more were it not for the fact that the 2022 Patriots had the second best average starting field position in football, got 7 special teams/defensive TDs and the overall offensive production was still garbage. There are fundamental issues with the scheme and what they ask of players in this offense which are exacerbated by the lack of talent.
This part I really don't understand. When there is one person with the responsibility for putting all these interconnected things that aren't working together, shouldn't you be able to assess blame?When lots of interconnected things aren't working you need to be really careful about assigning blame. It's often not where you think it is, especially if you're looking in from the outside.
This post just got you membership here.I think the issue is that so many things aren't working well that each part is being hampered by every other part. For example, special teams deserve a category here...if you believe PFF on this (YMMV), some aspects of that have been truly horrendous,
Just eyeballing that chart it seems they have special teams worth about -35pts, a chunk worse than the 2nd worst team. Much of this is on returns - they're allowing too many yards on opponent returns and not getting enough on their own
After many, many years of special teams being a positive this is the second consecutive year where they've been a real problem. I don't know why, but I'm sure Bill has unhappy thoughts on this.
One of the implications of this is that they have bad starting positions - average drive starting positon is 25.6yd line which is tied for worst in the league. This is one area where the defense is not helping, they've been unable to generate more than a handful of turnovers which I believe is likely due to a few factors including our Judon-less pass rush being ineffective and the constant playing from behind not putting opponents under any pressure.
But they've also been a combination of bad and unfortunate on 4th downs. Last I saw they were ranked (by PFF again I believe) 2nd worst for win probability lost by kicking on 4th downs, so they're not going for it enough. Unfortunately when they are going for it, they've not been very successful, and they've particularly not been successful when it comes to turning those conversions into points. We can see this directly leading to lost games - in week 1 they went for it late on 4th down v the Eagles and failed and then promptly got a turnover which meant that simply kicking two field goals would've been enough. But later in the season a more conservative approach has also failed due to missed field goals.
(The same is true on 3rd downs, they're just not converting late downs well).
So, yeah, Mac sucks. Sure. But it's really been much more complicated than that (Sorry, SJH). It feels to me much more like lots of things not working, and very few things working well. In fact so many things have been not working in the past few games that the offense has almost entirely stopped functioning.
So the bad news is that there is a lot that needs fixing. The good news is that each fix should help not only the problem that it's directed against, but also make things easier for all the other parts of the mechanism. Putting Marcus Jones back in as the return man next year hopefully improves the kick return stats, which gives better starting positions, which means 50 yard drives result in FGs rather than punts from the 40, which means we're sometimes up a few points rather than down a few points, which means more pressure on the opponents to generate points against this defense, which means more opportunities to generate turnovers, which means the offense gets some freebies, which means the QB isn't trying to force things which aren't there, which means throwing fewer interceptions and so on.
That's potentially quite a large gain from a simple, obvious change that requires nothing more than a guy on the roster already getting healthy. When you add in possible difference makers from the draft and free-agency, it's easy to imagine the offense being dramatically better next year (I mean, they'll be better than this for sure almost regardless). That doesn't mean they'll be good, but since they're doing almost everything badly right now they can pretty much only go in one direction across the board.
Well you can definitely say at least some of the blame falls on Bill. The question is more complicated for everyone everyone else who is being forced to work within a misfiring system.This part I really don't understand. When there is one person with the responsibility for putting all these interconnected things that aren't working together, shouldn't you be able to assess blame?
And people said there was nothing to play for. Tsh. (Also, ta v much, glad you appreciated it).This post just got you membership here.
Great work.