Four of the 16 players who declined their $15.8 million qualifying offer remain unsigned: Ian Desmond, Howie Kendrick, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo. They are perhaps all in that dreaded "good, but good enough to give up a draft pick for?" class of players, who hopefully had agents who explained the risks of not accepting the QO.
I am worried that it will be poor Ian Desmond will be this year's Drew. The market has just not shaped up for him, and teams that hypothetically need(ed) a SS (like San Deigo of the Chicago Sox) have found someone cheaper/are willing to let a rookie try their hand at the job. Did not help that Desmond had a terrible season, both at the plate and in the field heading into FA, after turning down a 5 year $90 million offer from the Nats after the 2014 season. He was a fairly steady 3.5 WAR player (BRef) for three years between 2012 and 2014, then was at 2 last season. He is a free swinger (career .312 OBP and 187 Ks last year) and struggles with his throws sometimes, so if you don't think he can rebound to a 3+ WAR player (which he has only done 3 times in 6 years as a full time SS) its hard to see giving him multiple years, $70+ million and/or a pick. Hard to also give up the pick if just signing him to a one year deal to see if he can bounce back to his 2012-2014 self...
Matt Wieters and others saw this same dynamic and took the QO this year rather that risk being unsigned, whether because of injury or performance concerns. Who do you think out of the remaining 4 will still be standing without a chair when Spring Training starts?
I am worried that it will be poor Ian Desmond will be this year's Drew. The market has just not shaped up for him, and teams that hypothetically need(ed) a SS (like San Deigo of the Chicago Sox) have found someone cheaper/are willing to let a rookie try their hand at the job. Did not help that Desmond had a terrible season, both at the plate and in the field heading into FA, after turning down a 5 year $90 million offer from the Nats after the 2014 season. He was a fairly steady 3.5 WAR player (BRef) for three years between 2012 and 2014, then was at 2 last season. He is a free swinger (career .312 OBP and 187 Ks last year) and struggles with his throws sometimes, so if you don't think he can rebound to a 3+ WAR player (which he has only done 3 times in 6 years as a full time SS) its hard to see giving him multiple years, $70+ million and/or a pick. Hard to also give up the pick if just signing him to a one year deal to see if he can bounce back to his 2012-2014 self...
Matt Wieters and others saw this same dynamic and took the QO this year rather that risk being unsigned, whether because of injury or performance concerns. Who do you think out of the remaining 4 will still be standing without a chair when Spring Training starts?