The chances that even in the deepest year you get a top QB as the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th QB off the board are incredibly low.
As an aside, I think you see the name QBs go right off the top, just like last year. No use evaluating for fit, teams will trade up if they like them.
Interesting. Your estimate was eerily accurate then. Sans future discount your suggested draft picks for the #2 pick had a total value of 2646 vs the second pick value of 2600.
An important point. I mean, sure, we'd all love to draft the next top 10 QB. But I for one would have been reasonably happy with the guy I thought we were getting in Mac Jones -- a player who, at the end of the day, was only ever going to be average at the position or maybe a cut above average.
Moreover, there have been 3 QBs who had this level of hype that I can remember in the last ~30 years: Manning, Luck, and Lawrence. Manning obviously fulfilled the prophecy, disappointing postseason career notwithstanding. Luck was a good and at times very good player, but ultimately did not live up to the hype. Lawrence is off to a promising start, but the jury is very much out and at this point I'd bet on him ending up on the Luck path as opposed to the Manning path - he simply hasn't put up stats yet, especially in this era and compared to guys like Burrow and Herbert.
Sure, just talking about wanting the "safe" pick in general. Safe doesn't really exist and especially when you're drafting a QB that high you're looking for ceiling, not floor. If Caleb Williams ends up as a solid, competent starter for the Patriots that's not really good enough to turn the franchise around either, so who cares.
I suspect it’s much more about where they landed than who they might have been.
Environment obviously plays a role, but the Bengals were trash and Burrow was good there right away and I wouldn't necessarily call Zach Taylor a great coach. Stroud has Slowik doing a great job, but a lot of people projected that team to be among the worst in football again coming into this season. I think getting the right guy at that position elevates your entire franchise.
I think it’s the latter. Pre draft Manning was probably the 2nd most hyped athlete coming into a professional league in my sports watching lifetime behind LeBron James. The hype with Luck probably had more to do with where he was going (Indy to replace Manning). Lawrence hype was probably similar to the guys this year. But the hype for Manning was on another level when he was coming out if Tennessee.
Williams has been hyped up as the next generational QB for a couple of years now going back to his Oklahoma days.
Yeah, there have only been a small handful of guys who you knew would be the #1 pick prior to them playing their final season and maybe even second to last season: Manning, Luck, Lawrence. Personally I would exclude Caleb Williams from the list, but YMMV.
You are right - for sure the right guy can elevate but to me it’s a matter of degree not a binary aside from that special handful.
Fortune favors the bold, the bold mostly go down in flames...but so do most team-building approaches in the NFL. The (by-far) cleanest path to playoff contention and beyond in the NFL is acquiring an NFL caliber QB. If you have the pick, a dire need at QB, and there are legitimate prospects up there...its tough for me to see not taking a QB there.
A little bit of the Mahomes Syndrome of trying to make highlight plays out of structure. Mahomes can obviously do it, but he may be 1 of 1. Zach Wilson did it at BYU, but NFL defenses are just a little bit different than the COIVD schedule Wilson played in 2020.
I'm 34 but I really don't remember the hype for Manning being at this level. There was legitimate debate between Ryan Leaf and Peyton and Peyton definitely had flaws (I think he was considered somewhat of a choke artist at Tennessee).
Size, not great performance against the few good defenses, lot of LONG plays where he holds it way too long, sometimes rolls himself into trouble.
He’s been pretty hyped. I’m not sure what the Patriots have to do with it: they seem unlikely to get to #1.
Manning, in most circles, was the consensus pick over Leaf. There were some that thought Leaf was better, but Manning was most definitely known as a once-in-a-generation talent coming out of Tennessee.
The report that he wanted an ownership stake in whatever team he was drafted didn't go over well. Rumor was it was floated by his father, but who knows.
That's fair but I still maintain that he's nowhere near the 2nd most hyped athlete coming out of college in the last 30 years. I mean, I think both Wembanyama and LeBron surpass him. Sidney Crosby in the NHL.
Well neither did Lebron.
The original discussion was just about athletes turning pro and included Lebron, but anyway enough of this sidetrack.
Not that he was the second most, but the first person I thought of was that granddad drafted by the Trailblazers.
No, I don't, and I can't even get it now. Should have saved off the whole video before I edited it.
Leaf came on late and was kind of an exciting alternative (kind of like RGIII the Luck year), but Manning would have been #1 the year before, went back, was still #1. He was the best QB prospect since Elway, and there hasn't been anyone on the same level since. Luck is closest. Lawrence a bit behind that, and maybe Williams this year is on the same level as Lawrence.
I remember being really excited about Leaf. Part of that was the Washington State connection and Bledsoe. The guy could sling it. It's too bad his head couldn't catch up to his physical talent. He was out of the league at record speed for a #2 pick. Peyton was a generational prospect but even at Tenn couldn't win the big games.
Personal anecdote: was taking a tour of the New Orleans Garden District in the summer of 1999. When the tour guide stopped in front of Archie Manning's home, he of course mentioned Peyton Manning, as P Manning had just finished his 2nd season finishing 2nd in the NFL MVP vote. He also mentioned (paraphrasing) that "Peyton has a younger brother, Eli, who is playing high school football. And we here in 'Nawlins are going to do everything we can to make sure he comes back here as a pro. Because Eli is going to be even better than his brother."
I think there is a case Maye could go as the 3rd QB for sure. I don't see any way someone other than Daniels jumps him, those other guys have plenty of their own warts for an NFL team, and they don't have the top end Maye does. One of the most important things.... college stats don't matter. Or at least not in evaluation of prospects, plenty of high drafted NFL successes had comparatively poor college stats, plenty of the best college stats guys go undrafted or late rounds and never play and NFL game.
If the Pats have the #2 pick and don't want a QB, they should trade back with someone who does IMO.
