Which powerless hitter will be next to eventually hit a home run?

[The Gray Eagle]

Which of the many banjo hitters on this season's Red Sox team will next hit a home run?
 
The choices are the 10 players with more than 10 plate appearances who have a slugging percentage under .400, plus pitcher Joe Kelly.
 
Victorino is out for the year, but this homer watch might still be going on when he is back in April, so he has a chance. Ross is also on the DL, and who knows when or if he will be back? But he could win this.
 
Bradley Jr. is in Pawtucket, but presumably he will be back up in September, and the HR watch will probably still be going on when he is back, so he has a shot. 
 
Joe Kelly is a pitcher, but he has a legitimate chance to hit one out before any of the others. 

 

[Super Nomario]

... and Brock Holt has 418 PAs and just 3 HR, and he can't even crack your list.
 
This list also doesn't include Mike Carp and Jonathan Herrera, who each had 100+ homerless PAs.
 
Bleurgh.

 

[Darnell's Son]

David Ross in his next AB.

 

[TSC]

I still have faith in Xander. He's too good (and with September call-ups, too many shitty pitchers) to not run into a fastball eventually.

 

[bankshot1]

X and I'll take Ortiz over the field, even if we add the legend that is Brock Holt

 

[doc]

Middlebrooks, I'm going with the Blind Squirrel Nut Principle.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'd pick Kelly, but the Sox only have 3 road games left in NL parks. Although Pittsburgh is a good hitter's park
 
 
I expect WMB will be back on the DL PDQ so is SOL for this contest

 

[MakMan44]

Middlebrooks, I'm going with the Blind Squirrel Nut Principle.

This. 
 
I also think that Ortiz will outpace this bunch ROS. 

 

[The Gray Eagle]

... and Brock Holt has 418 PAs and just 3 HR, and he can't even crack your list.
 
This list also doesn't include Mike Carp and Jonathan Herrera, who each had 100+ homerless PAs.
 
Bleurgh.

Holt is slugging .405, so he's not eligible. He'd be slugging even higher if he didn't get robbed of that 3-run homer last night. Even without that homer, he's still slugging 28 points higher than Pedroia, 69 points higher than Bogaerts, 65 points higher than Nava.
 

I'd pick Kelly, but the Sox only have 3 road games left in NL parks. Although Pittsburgh is a good hitter's park

Only 3 road games in NL parks left this season. He might still have a shot next year.

 

[YTF]

I still have faith in Xander. He's too good (and with September call-ups, too many shitty pitchers) to not run into a fastball eventually.

 Picking Xander as well, but fuck you don't have this happening until September?

 

[steveluck7]

PIcked Betts cuz, why not?
Just looked through some box scores and it's sickening, really. Since the ASB, the Sox have 8 HR's by players not named Ortiz, Napoli or Cespedes... 5 of which from guys no longer on the team (Gomes -1; Drew - 2), or currently on the DL (Ross-1; Vic - 1)

 

[E5 Yaz]

I'm going with either Rusney Castillo or Mike Stanton

 

[nvalvo]

Bradley, in Pawtucket. That may not count. 

 

[pokey_reese]

I went with X, simply because he has demonstrated more power than most of that list and is pretty much guaranteed ABs the rest of the way.  I also picked Ortiz to beat them, because I think he can hit 4 or 5 more this season at least, and I don't think that group can match that (sigh).
 
I wish I had thought to vote for Ross though, since I think that he will be back off the DL soon, and he probably has a better chance.

 

[strek1]

Got to love the loyalty to Bogaerts talent in this poll (Not singling you out Pokey - You make good points) 
I don't see him doing much the rest of this year though.  He really needs a break and then some fall/winter work to re-group.
Home Run , hell , I'd be thrilled to see him get a bloop single with RISP.

 

[Super Nomario]

Got to love the loyalty to Bogaerts talent in this poll (Not singling you out Pokey - You make good points) 
I don't see him doing much the rest of this year though.  He really needs a break and then some fall/winter work to re-group.
Home Run , hell , I'd be thrilled to see him get a bloop single with RISP.

Bogaerts has been terrible, but his 2 HR since the All-Star break leads all the poll options. It's tied for 4th (with Stephen Drew) on the team during that span.

 

[strek1]

Bogaerts has been terrible, but his 2 HR since the All-Star break leads all the poll options. It's tied for 4th (with Stephen Drew) on the team during that span.

 I actually voted for Ross.  He tends to poke one now and again. Not a lot of AB's but I like his chances.

 

[ivanvamp]

Middlebrooks.  Because….why not?  Maybe he'll run into a fastball at some point.  
 
But boy, that's a very depressing list.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm going with either Rusney Castillo or Mike Stanton

 
Neither will be in Boston long enough to get into a game. They'll be part of a package for Mike Trout.
 
L.A. has Cuban people, right?

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Middlebrooks, he's the only guy that can get one out with an easy swing. So he'll stick his bat out and wrists one over the monstah. Plus he's riding the wave of good defensive mojo, probably feeling like a stud.

 

[mikeford]

 
Neither will be in Boston long enough to get into a game. They'll be part of a package for Mike Trout.
 
L.A. has Cuban people, right?

Just Joey Diaz I think

I'd pick Wily Mo Brooks if I thought anyone would be dumb enough to throw him a FB again so I went with Mookie because the rest of these guys couldn't go deep in Williamsport.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Jon Lester.

 

[TSC]

And Mookie wins it, followed closely by Pedroia.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

These people had Mookie in the poll:
Super Nomario, MalzoneExpress, Stan Papi Was Framed, Hendu At The Wall,TheDeuce222, malley0323, Comfortably Lomb, steveluck7, BlackJack, 75cent bleacher seat, bluefenderstrat, No Guru No Method, Sprowl, MartyBarrettMVP,SoxFanInWestHaven, pjmwm, gryoung, Plympton91, Dahabenzapple2,NWsoxophile, Sinistas, TedsColdHead, bgo544, The Mort Report, agluapop,mikeford, Bone Chips, BCsMightyJoeYoung
 
 
These folks had Pedroia, who homered in the same inning:
tims4wins, GBrushTWood, Carbo Loading, Lose Remerswaal, Lars The Wanderer,erfus, jmm57, Max Power, bosox4509, Nomar813, Card042, JohnnyTheBone, Matt Young's Control, Julius.R, Toe Nash, sketz, JMDurron, JustALittleOutside,ganador2004, DanoooME
 
Congrats!

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I thought it was "which powerless hitter will be hit in the head and wind up with a concussion"
 
Poor reading skills have screwed me again.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

I'd pick Kelly, but the Sox only have 3 road games left in NL parks. Although Pittsburgh is a good hitter's park
 
 
I expect WMB will be back on the DL PDQ so is SOL for this contest

 
this is far too late to be relevant but pittsburgh is actually a fairly extreme pitcher's park, especially for right handed hitting power
 
http://www.parkfactors.com/PIT

 

[Plympton91]

That's 3 for Betts since he broke the powerless spell. He just continues to be a beast at every level. I wonder if they'll cut into his playing time down the stretch to keep his roookie eligibility intact and give him the chance to win ROY next year. That would free up CF for Castillo over the final two weeks.

 

[HillysLastWalk]

Some of this may be entirely irrational, but I want the Sox to keep Betts. Hes been my binky all season (Sox lost again! Well, how did Mookie do at Portland or Pawtucket today?)

I fear that with the glut of outfielders, he ends up in a trade for starting pitching. Who can have faith in say, Allen Craig going forward? And even someone like Cespedes, he is sitting on a 305obp or something. Dont get me wrong, hes been pretty great even with the low OBP, but the average holds down that slugging. Here we have a cost controlled 21 year old that has just been unstoppable for close to two seasons now. His control of the strike zone is amazing. He has speed. He can play centerfield (meeting Ben'stwo center fielder requirements). And would it surprise anyone if he was a 300/400/500 player starting next year?

This guy is awesome.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

And would it surprise anyone if he was a 300/400/500 player starting next year?

I suppose the parade of disappointments this season has beaten too much optimism out of me, but this reminds me a lot of things that were said about Xander last fall.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Sox are currently last in the American League in slugging percentage. If that doesn't change by season's end (it could--they're not far behind the Rays and Mariners), they will be the first Sox team to be league-worst in SLG since 1932.
 
Of the 114 Sox teams, 25 have led the league in SLG, and 66 have finished in the top 3. Only nine previous teams have finished last, all of them in the Ruth-Williams interregnum.
 
It has really has been epic, this offensive suck.

 

[Plympton91]

The Sox are currently last in the American League in slugging percentage. If that doesn't change by season's end (it could--they're not far behind the Rays and Mariners), they will be the first Sox team to be league-worst in SLG since 1932.
 
Of the 114 Sox teams, 25 have led the league in SLG, and 66 have finished in the top 3. Only nine previous teams have finished last, all of them in the Ruth-Williams interregnum.
 
It has really has been epic, this offensive suck.

Not to take away from your conclusion, which is perfectly true, but I wonder if the same stat is technically true if you adjust for park effects. Fenway is no longer one of the best hitters' parks in the league, so I suppose that adjusting for park effects, they may have been last in other years since 1932.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Not to take away from your conclusion, which is perfectly true, but I wonder if the same stat is technically true if you adjust for park effects. Fenway is no longer one of the best hitters' parks in the league, so I suppose that adjusting for park effects, they may have been last in other years since 1932.

 
But that's exactly the point. Given the positive effect of Fenway (especially on BABIP and doubles totals), even a pretty power-challenged Sox team should perform respectably in the SLG column. Actually finishing last is off the scale.

 

[Plympton91]

 
But that's exactly the point. Given the positive effect of Fenway (especially on BABIP and doubles totals), even a pretty power-challenged Sox team should perform respectably in the SLG column. Actually finishing last is off the scale.

Agree, I'm just saying it's not quite as surprising as it would have been before the new bandbox parks were constructed and the 406 Club screwed up the wind patterns.

 

[Al Zarilla]

The Sox are currently last in the American League in slugging percentage. If that doesn't change by season's end (it could--they're not far behind the Rays and Mariners), they will be the first Sox team to be league-worst in SLG since 1932.
 
Of the 114 Sox teams, 25 have led the league in SLG, and 66 have finished in the top 3. Only nine previous teams have finished last, all of them in the Ruth-Williams interregnum.
 
It has really has been epic, this offensive suck.

Some of the hitters responsible for that are in the minors now or are gone or were early Nava, things like that. Cespedes wasn't here yet. Maybe sucking real bad in something gets the GM going harder toward an exceeds effort in fix it. Crazy stat: since trading for Cespedes, the Red Sox have outscored the A's 108 - 102 (check my math). That's more on the other A's slumping (except Donaldson) than just Cespedes being gone, of course, but I wouldn't doubt if Billy Beane is having some sleepless nights. 

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The thing that seperates Betts is the low k rate. His bb/k ratio is prettt much 1 at all levels. That and his speed. I'd rate him above Xander going forward but I'm glad to keep both. Oddly enough, Betts may end up higher on the defensive spectrum.

 

[HillysLastWalk]

In addition, the average and on base skills - especially since the time he made the mechanical adjustment in May of 2013. So when you combine that with the walk and k rates, he demonstrates a significantly better control of the strike zone. Xander had the better power and to be fair was playing at comparable levels a birth year earlier. But Betts these last two seasons has been unstoppable. For me, Its really all about the player he has become since that adjustment. Plus he could potentially play his position better, as well.

 

[Al Zarilla]

In addition, the average and on base skills - especially since the time he made the mechanical adjustment in May of 2013. So when you combine that with the walk and k rates, he demonstrates a significantly better control of the strike zone. Xander had the better power and to be fair was playing at comparable levels a birth year earlier. But Betts these last two seasons has been unstoppable. For me, Its really all about the player he has become since that adjustment. Plus he could potentially play his position better, as well.

What mechanical adjustment was that? 

 

[HillysLastWalk]

It was some work he did with UL Washington to replace a drastic leg kick with a slide. That was May 2013. He has been dominant since: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/05/05/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-a-year-of-feats-of-mookie-and-the-change-that-set-them-in-motion-allen-webster-breaks-through-alex-wilson-is-ready-henry-ramos-is-hitting/

Lets not forget, this is the same guy who started AA this year with a sustained stretch over 400, and he unofficially tied the minor league record for consecutive games on base (or was close to it). Feats of Mookie indeed.