Getting to Know Atlanta
QB Matt Ryan 4,944 yards 38 TD/7 INT 69.9 Comp% 83.1 QBR 117.1 Passer Rating
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RB Devonta Freeman 227 att, 1,079 yds, 11 TD/54 catches, 462 yds, 2 TD
RB Tevin Coleman (13 GP) 118 att, 520, 8 TDs/31 catches, 421 yds, 3 TDs
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WR Julio Jones (14 GP) 83 catches, 1,409 yds(17 yds/catch), 6 TDs
WR Mohamed Sanu 59 catches, 653 yds, 4 TDs
WR Taylor Gabriel (13 GP) 35 catches, 579 yds(16.5 yds/catch), 6 TDs
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TE Austin Hooper 19 catches, 271 yds, 3 TDs 39% snaps
TE Jacob Tamme 22 catches, 210 yds, 3 TDs 31.7% snaps
TE Levine Toilolo 13 catches, 264 yds(20.3 yds/catch), 2 TDs 54.9% snaps
It comes down to choosing between playing very conservatively in a two deep shell or playing press man physical style defense with 1 high safety and roving safeties. I am choosing to play man to man physical defense to start out because I want to make Atlanta fight off jams and disrupt the timing of Ryan and his receivers as much as possible. If you allow Matt Ryan to sit back and throw all day into a soft zone he will pick you apart. I want no part of getting Ryan in a rhythm and developing confidence. The Falcons utilize the seam routes very well and those would be open all day in zone. They will switch back and forth as you can’t play man to man all game long and I do expect to show Ryan multiple looks. But, I think playing physical early is something you have to do. Time and score will dictate how the schemes evolve.
The personnel grouping of choice for me would be the big nickel. The front four is going to have to do a much better job of winning 1-on-1 battles up front because blitzing Ryan with LBs only opens up the middle of the field if they can't get home. Atlanta’s offensive line has been very good this season in the run game as FO ranks their OL 10th in Adjusted Line Yards. However, it has given up 37 sacks this season which is good for 11th most in the NFL. I don’t think this should be a big Alan Branch game even though Freeman and Coleman are very good runners. Branch and Vince Valentine will have a role in this game but I firmly believe that the Patriots should play a more athletic front four and let Atlanta run the ball as much as they want. If they want to run the ball while the Patriots are in nickel then I think that’s a net win. Think of the Denver game in Foxboro where Knowshon Moreno ran for 200 yards. I’d like to see 3-4 pass rushers on the line as much as possible. I’d kick Trey Flowers and Jabaal Sheard inside and put Chris Long and, yes, Dont’a Hightower on the end to generate some pass rushing opportunities with Roberts/Van Noy/McClellin playing LB.
In man to man situations, this is how I would employ the personnel. I’ve wavered back and forth on who should handle Julio Jones. In the past with Revis, Bill and Matt have put the #1 CB on somebody else to take that WR right out of the game. I think that is what they should do with Malcolm Butler. Logan Ryan is very good with his hands and has the capabilities to play with bigger receivers as he has in his career. However, Jones is more physical than, say, Demariyus Thomas, and Eric Rowe is bigger(6’1” 200 lbs) than Ryan and has the speed and quickness to stay with Jones especially with safety help. My choice would be Eric Rowe with safety help. I would then put Malcolm Butler on Mohamed Sanu to try to take Ryan’s #2 target out of the game and Logan Ryan on Taylor Gabriel. Gabriel has been a real X-factor in Atlanta’s offense and I think putting Ryan on him would be the best fit for the personnel we have. In the big nickel, I’d have Duron Harmon over the top to support Rowe. Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty will be moved all over the field depending on Atlanta’s formations. Atlanta is known for using as many or more players and formations than any team in the NFL so Chung and McCourty’s jobs will change by the series and sometimes by snap. When Atlanta flexes out either Coleman or Freeman, I can see DMC covering them 1-on-1 while Chung picks up a TE.
There might be times where Atlanta runs funky formations out to try to confuse the defense. Some examples are that they’ve run plays out of the wildcat with Sanu and 3 TE formations to take advantage of seam routes. Another trick formation to watch out for is a possible double pass with Mohamed Sanu. He has attempted 5 passes in his Cincinnati days. Kyle Shanahan will use multiple formations and uses motion really well to set up favorable matchups.
Check the breakdown out done on the 13 personnel run by Atlanta in the Washington Post done by our own mascho.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/11/01/a-close-look-at-the-atlanta-falcons-nfl-best-offense/?utm_term=.c34216b9a959
Expect Dan Quinn to take chances especially if it turns out to be a shootout. The WSJ did a study on coaching aggressiveness and ranked Dan Quinn 4th most aggressive. They have the utmost confidence in their offense so don’t be surprised to go for it on 4th down or take chances in special teams.
To sum things up, I think Matt and Bill will come out and try to be physical with the WR’s to disrupt timing and see if it works. The pass rush hasn’t been getting home so you don’t want Matt Ryan to feel comfortable and work in rhythm so the alternative is to jam the receivers off their routes.