He mashed against lefties and was generally only put in against themLooking at that 2013 roster, how the heck did Jonny Gomes manage a 142 ops+ in 2012? Devers was only at 141 last year.
I hope this doesn’t come across as being said at you directly, because that isn’t my intent. Citing the Sox being 2 games out of the WC and everyone coming from back from injury is a common refrain to give context for Bloom deciding not to sell.Just looking back at the standings last season.
On July 4 the Sox were 10 games over .500 at 45-35 after 80 games. Second in the division and maybe first in WC. At a similar pace to the 92 win 2021 season. Trailing the white hot Yankees by 12 games.
Sale was within weeks of coming back, Paxton was moving closer in his recovery and Casas was close. Duran had an OPS of .881, Devers .962 and Xander .852. Crawford just pitched a gem in relief of opener in TB. The team hasd some good players trying to figure it out JDM and Story. JBJ trade was an obvious mistake at the MLB level and Dalbec regressed. The starting pitching was outstanding. First have team pitching had an OPS+ against of 89. Held the opposition to a .240 batting average and OPS of .704. That was a good team that had an impact pitcher coming back. Bloom was threading the needle. Keeping the Sox competitive with some low cost moves that were great while others did not work.
Things were looking bright until —
The. Wheels. Fell. Off. Too much to list…
The thing for me is Bloom had the team within two games of the WS in 2021. He had the team at mid season 2022 positioned to compete. The financial reset and barren high minors left the team without depth. Just a little less injury luck and the team has Sale for the 2nd half, Casas at 1B (not Dalbec/Franchy) and Story on another heater. I’ll also throw in having someone on the team (PR, Cora, quiet team leaders) help Duran answer for the pop up. They probably make the playoffs.
Didn’t happen. We are where we are. Time to develop some kids at the MLB level.
And two games away from finishing fourth in the division and missing the playoffs entirely.The thing for me is Bloom had the team within two games of the WS in 2021.
That's what happens when you're a fairly mediocre team. You either make the playoffs by a small number of games or miss the playoffs by a small number of games. I mean, last year when the Sox were the worst of the mediocre teams, we finished eight games out of the playoffs. A small improvement, and we've got a legit chance at the wild card right up until the last couple weeks.And two games away from finishing fourth in the division and missing the playoffs entirely.
Crossposting here, but who says no to this?
LAA gets: Sale, Verdugo, Pivetta, Dalbec, Duran
BOS gets: Ward, Detmers, Adell, Suarez* (or Canning/Silseth/Rodriguez), Rendon (with $60-80 million paid down, which would leave roughly 4/$75-95M left on that deal)
The Angels hang up quickly IMHO. Pivetta, Dalbec and Duran are fungible/less than fungible. They would have to give up a 23 year rising rotation fixture in Reid Detmers. Ward is under team control until 2027 and put up a 4.0 oWAR season last year. Suarez also under control through 2027 and put up a very nice age 24 season with a 3.96 ERA but an xERA of 3.67.
The Phillies "hung in their own division" because after June 12, they had 35 of their 99 remaining games against the awful Nationals and Marlins. They went 28-7 in those games. If the Sox were playing over a third of their stretch schedule against two teams that combined for 200 losses, they'd likely have been in a different, better position come the end of July. You'd be crying "buy, buy, buy!". The strength of the competition matters.I hope this doesn’t come across as being said at you directly, because that isn’t my intent. Citing the Sox being 2 games out of the WC and everyone coming from back from injury is a common refrain to give context for Bloom deciding not to sell.
However, also the team was in that position because of an awesome month (June) where we went 12-2 against Cincinnati, Oakland, LAA and Detroit in that month. July started off with series losses against the Cubs and Rays before finally splitting a series against the Yankees. That split was the first “not lost” series against an AL East team of the season.
By the time games finished on July 31st (trade deadline was Aug 2nd), the squad was 4 games out of the last WC in the loss column, had gone 0-11-1 against AL East opponents and we were in last place in the division. We not only were behind, but there were 4 teams we’d have to jump to get the last WC. Choosing not to sell was a horrible decision, in terms of draft pick position, not acquiring more prospects for the apparent plan of building from the farm, and in terms of the luxury tax.
Oh, and people also point to “should the Phillies have sold”, which is not at all comparable. At the time the Phillies were “in” the playoffs, and had two stud pitchers actually pitching at the top of their rotation (Nola and Wheeler) and they’d shown an ability to hang inntheir own division - as opposed to not being able to win a single of 12 series.
Again, I don’t want that to come across as directed only at you, certainly that is not my intent.
Normally I’m anti-6-man-rotation because it means your shittiest pitcher is getting as many starts as your best pitcher. But in this scenario I honestly don’t see the difference between Sale and Pivetta being enough to make a difference in 2,3?starts over the whole time this happens. You might get a better Sale even.I’d really consider starting the year off with a 6-man rotation given the fragility and uncertainty of the elder statesmen in the rotation. What harm could be done by easing Sale and Paxton back into the swing-of-things while giving them an extra day off in between starts? If everyone remains healthy(seems unlikely)Houck or Whitlock could be dropped back into the pen.
1. Chris Sale
2. Nick Pivetta
3. James Paxton
4. Garret Whitlock
5. Brayan Bello
6. Tanner Houck
This is very similar to how I feel. He’s put together some fairly brittle, risky teams while he’s tried to restock the farm and wait out some expiring contracts. In 2021, that worked out pretty well; in 2022, it worked out well until it didn’t; in 2023, I think we should end up with a roster with a higher floor when all is said and done, but we’ll see. Losing Bogaerts hurts there.Maybe I didn’t make my point clearly. I’ll try to add on a little. Not a challenge Post btw.
The 2019 Red Sox finished with 84 wins with a large portion of the WS team intact. The 2021 team won 92 games without Betts, Benintendi, JBJ, Price , Porcello and most of Sale.
Bloom has been working under major constraints brought on by spending major financial and development capital to win in 2018. He’s made some moves that have paid off spectacularly and blown up in his face
My point is Bloom is working on the razors edge of keeping the team competitive AND building up the system. Under the circumstances he’s done a good (maybe great) job of threading the needle.
This team could win 86 games this year if just a few players stay healthy. But they are in a rebuild. They should not be in a GFIN spend mode like the Mets, Padres, Phillies, Yankees or Toronto. They should not be a team that loses 90+ games.
I think Bloom should be credited with a smart 2020 tank job. That season was a shit show. That leave 1.5 seasons of 90+ win baseball and .5 season of complete injury luck induced crap. Lower farm is getting better. Financial constraints are easing. More rope required.
And a fresher SP every game you play. It’s one way to find an advantage. It fits with this group of Sox starters.Normally I’m anti-6-man-rotation because it means your shittiest pitcher is getting as many starts as your best pitcher. But in this scenario I honestly don’t see the difference between Sale and Pivetta being enough to make a difference in 2,3?starts over the whole time this happens. You might get a better Sale even.
im down
Why, though? Who is on the 2025 team that you see as legit title contenders? I hope you are right but the only current big leaguers under control then are Story, Sale, Yoshida, and Whitlock, right? With pre-arb/arb guys like Houck, Casas, and Bello?This is very similar to how I feel. He’s put together some fairly brittle, risky teams while he’s tried to restock the farm and wait out some expiring contracts. In 2021, that worked out pretty well; in 2022, it worked out well until it didn’t; in 2023, I think we should end up with a roster with a higher floor when all is said and done, but we’ll see. Losing Bogaerts hurts there.
In 2024, we should be in position to have more certainty and confidence, and in 2025 we should be legitimate title contenders.
Agreed, with the minor quibble that Sale is only an option. Unless he produces markedly more than he has recently, he wont be on the team in 2025.Why, though? Who is on the 2025 team that you see as legit title contenders? I hope you are right but the only current big leaguers under control then are Story, Sale, Yoshida, and Whitlock, right? With pre-arb/arb guys like Houck, Casas, and Bello?
I feel like there’s always this idea that the team will be really good a few years down the road but imagine that idea is not unique to Sox fans.
I guess the only downside is that they'd have a shorter bench, right? If Casas or Yoshida struggle out of the gate, or if McGuire's bat reverts back to anemic, that doesn't leave them with many options.I’d really consider starting the year off with a 6-man rotation given the fragility and uncertainty of the elder statesmen in the rotation. What harm could be done by easing Sale and Paxton back into the swing-of-things while giving them an extra day off in between starts? If everyone remains healthy(seems unlikely)Houck or Whitlock could be dropped back into the pen.
1. Chris Sale
2. Nick Pivetta
3. James Paxton
4. Garret Whitlock
5. Brayan Bello
6. Tanner Houck
Sign me up for this. Houck gets a season to see if he can get through the lineup a third time, Whitlock gets to show he’s durable enough to start, Bello to show his progression to an ace and Paxton for whether he deserves a QO next offseason. Sale gets more rest between starts. If the season goes well, he’ll be healthier come playoff time. Pivetta doesn’t need the extra rest but IMO he has the least upside of all 6 so we’re probably better off if he gets 27 starts instead of 33.I’d really consider starting the year off with a 6-man rotation given the fragility and uncertainty of the elder statesmen in the rotation. What harm could be done by easing Sale and Paxton back into the swing-of-things while giving them an extra day off in between starts? If everyone remains healthy(seems unlikely)Houck or Whitlock could be dropped back into the pen.
1. Chris Sale
2. Nick Pivetta
3. James Paxton
4. Garret Whitlock
5. Brayan Bello
6. Tanner Houck
Plus there's the starter-strech-out factor. They'd have to go deeper into games if you shortening available innings from the bullpen.I guess the only downside is that they'd have a shorter bench, right? If Casas or Yoshida struggle out of the gate, or if McGuire's bat reverts back to anemic, that doesn't leave them with many options.
This is why I don't understand the "blow it up" idea. If there's a bit of luck, the team could be decent this year and next. Why guarantee they're going to be bad in the near term for some unknown chance to be better in a few years?Why, though? Who is on the 2025 team that you see as legit title contenders? I hope you are right but the only current big leaguers under control then are Story, Sale, Yoshida, and Whitlock, right? With pre-arb/arb guys like Houck, Casas, and Bello?
I feel like there’s always this idea that the team will be really good a few years down the road but imagine that idea is not unique to Sox fans.
I actually agree totally on crediting Bloom for 2020; it’s also why I criticize him for not doing the same last year. I don’t share the same optimism on what the team looks like in 2024 and 2025 based on some of the high profile misses Bloom has had in evaluating minor league talent (Cordero, Winckowski, Downs, Hamilton, Binelas) vs the high profile win (Whitlock).Maybe I didn’t make my point clearly. I’ll try to add on a little. Not a challenge Post btw.
The 2019 Red Sox finished with 84 wins with a large portion of the WS team intact. The 2021 team won 92 games without Betts, Benintendi, JBJ, Price , Porcello and most of Sale.
Bloom has been working under major constraints brought on by spending major financial and development capital to win in 2018. He’s made some moves that have paid off spectacularly and blown up in his face
My point is Bloom is working on the razors edge of keeping the team competitive AND building up the system. Under the circumstances he’s done a good (maybe great) job of threading the needle.
This team could win 86 games this year if just a few players stay healthy. But they are in a rebuild. They should not be in a GFIN spend mode like the Mets, Padres, Phillies, Yankees or Toronto. They should not be a team that loses 90+ games.
I think Bloom should be credited with a smart 2020 tank job. That season was a shit show. That leave 1.5 seasons of 90+ win baseball and .5 season of complete injury luck induced crap. Lower farm is getting better. Financial constraints are easing. More rope required.
I agree on strength of competition. Which is why I site the Red Sox being 0-11-1 in series against the AL East AND having to overtake each of the other teams to make the second wild card as reasons that they clearly should have sold. Especially when the entire argument of why Bloom should be given more rope is his success in building the player development machine.You'd be crying "buy, buy, buy!". The strength of the competition matters.
Add Mayer, Rafaela, and Bleis to that group, trade a few of the other high-ceiling middle infielders, and sign a few from the excellent FAs expected to hit the market between now and then: Soto, Ohtani, Corbin Burnes, etc., etc. Maybe one of the young SPs pops, like Luis Perales.Why, though? Who is on the 2025 team that you see as legit title contenders? I hope you are right but the only current big leaguers under control then are Story, Sale, Yoshida, and Whitlock, right? With pre-arb/arb guys like Houck, Casas, and Bello?
I feel like there’s always this idea that the team will be really good a few years down the road but imagine that idea is not unique to Sox fans.
Trivia Question Time!Why, though? Who is on the 2025 team that you see as legit title contenders? I hope you are right but the only current big leaguers under control then are Story, Sale, Yoshida, and Whitlock, right? With pre-arb/arb guys like Houck, Casas, and Bello?
I feel like there’s always this idea that the team will be really good a few years down the road but imagine that idea is not unique to Sox fans.
I honestly do appreciate your optimism but, in this scenario, after extending Devers for what it's likely to take to get him to agree, I just don't think they'd double-down and do another massive deal for SotoThe 2025 Sox could be:
DH Yoshida
SS Mayer
3B Devers
LF Soto
RF Bleis
1B Casas
2B Story
C Wong
CF Rafaela
With Bello, Woodruff, Whitlock, and Perales in the rotation. Or whatever. The point isn’t the details.
Sale will be done, and there should be a lot of homegrown talent. They’d be able to.I honestly do appreciate your optimism but, in this scenario, after extending Devers for what it's likely to take to get him to agree, I just don't think they'd double-down and do another massive deal for Soto
If we’re not looking towards 24/25… what was the alternative this year? There just wasn’t an easy path to WS contention. Same star players from last year, same injury concerns for SP and no players from AAA that move the needle on the big team.Sale will be done, and there should be a lot of homegrown talent. They’d be able to.
I think 2021-2023 were always going to be high-variance seasons. Instead of rebuilding in terms of expected wins, we were rebuilding in terms of the standard error, as it were. So 2021 and 22 were similar clubs, but one panned out pretty well and the other quite badly. It was like the projection was 80 wins plus or minus fifteen: a huge spread between best and worst outcomes.If we’re not looking towards 24/25… what was the alternative this year? There just wasn’t an easy path to WS contention. Same star players from last year, same injury concerns for SP and no players from AAA that move the needle on the big team.
Lots can change before 2025. No guarantees either way. N
Take the same team as last year. Get a better bullpen and some health and that's a team that takes a wild card and who knows what can happen at that point.If we’re not looking towards 24/25… what was the alternative this year? There just wasn’t an easy path to WS contention. Same star players from last year, same injury concerns for SP and no players from AAA that move the needle on the big team.
Lots can change before 2025. No guarantees either way. N
The odds that all six of them will be healthy at the same time are somewhere between slim and none.I’d really consider starting the year off with a 6-man rotation given the fragility and uncertainty of the elder statesmen in the rotation. What harm could be done by easing Sale and Paxton back into the swing-of-things while giving them an extra day off in between starts? If everyone remains healthy(seems unlikely)Houck or Whitlock could be dropped back into the pen.
1. Chris Sale
2. Nick Pivetta
3. James Paxton
4. Garret Whitlock
5. Brayan Bello
6. Tanner Houck
Well, the Sox declined the 2 year option, and he exercised his one year option, so I doubt the Sox think he's ready to throw 33 starts without a hitch.I'm still baffled by everyone counting on Paxton to be a solid contributor this year. If he makes 10 starts this year I'll be stunned. Decent chance he's already pitched his last MLB game.
Which makes one believe that they'd want Eovaldi back. But ...Well, the Sox declined the 2 year option, and he exercised his one year option, so I doubt the Sox think he's ready to throw 33 starts without a hitch.
And yet, they haven't signed another FA starter yet. . .which makes the starting 5 awfully thin if they think Paxton is 100% a no-go. Maybe they think Paxton is actually doing well at this point and they're going to give him a flier, and if he fails maybe they think Crawford is their #5. Who knows?
But right now, he's kind of penciled in to start. I don't think they can easily trade him at the moment. They're not going to use him in the pen. And they're not going to dump him and eat $4M (modest though it might seem in their overall budget) if there's a chance he really can give them some quality starts.
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/nathan-eovaldis-market-seems-to-be-heating-up?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterAccording to multiple major league sources, teams known to be in pursuit of Eovaldi are the Angels, Padres, and at least one other club. It is believed that one of the additional interested parties is an American League East club.
The Red Sox do not appear to be front-runners for the services of the righty after offering Eovaldi the $19.65 million qualifying offer (which he declined).
If the deal is somewhere in the (unrealistic, obviously) 3-5 year range, I probably lean toward Ohtani.Assuming same years and cost… would people here rather have Soto or Ohtani?
I’m personally not sure.
Until the post season when Farrell inexplicably benched his platoon partner, Nava. Though I guess it worked out!He mashed against lefties and was generally only put in against them
Ohtani gives us 2 players for the price of 1!If the deal is somewhere in the (unrealistic, obviously) 3-5 year range, I probably lean toward Ohtani.
More than that, and I go Soto, and I'm not sure it's particularly close for me, assuming he rebounds from his pretty bad 2022 second half(only a .398 OBP after the ASG???!! YUCK /sarcasm). If the next two years look similar to that, though, the calculus changes a bit.
If it’s an arm injury that negates his ability to pitch, his power will likely be gone also.Ohtani gives us 2 players for the price of 1!
we are still ok if either his hittIng or pitching falls off.
I doubt it will be both.
This is totally fair, but if he gets hurt and has to miss time, you also have to fill two holes.Ohtani gives us 2 players for the price of 1!
we are still ok if either his hittIng or pitching falls off.
I doubt it will be both.
I'll take the under.Now what’s the realistic possibility that the Sox get him? 2-3%?
Ya I’d go with Soto without a doubt… although it’s hard to turn down Ohtani but I think Soto will hold up better. Who knows but Ohtani has to be putting on some serious miles on his body by pitching and hitting.Soto all day long. Don’t think Ohtani leaves the West Coast and the elite, multi position price factor is going to extremely high. Like $500m.
Let the Dodgers have him and the risk.
Something to think about in this regard: The largest contract ever given out by the Red Sox is the 7/$217M deal David Price signed in 2015. We're closing in on a decade's worth of exploding contracts since then, and the Red Sox have been left on the sidelines in terms of getting involved.Soto is by far the superior hitter. Career OPS+ 157 vs 124 for Devers. Add that over the past few years Devers has lost steam in the second half. I worry about how Devers will age physically. $350m+ is a huge number.
That loss of steam is often connected to injury:Soto is by far the superior hitter. Career OPS+ 157 vs 124 for Devers. Add that over the past few years Devers has lost steam in the second half. I worry about how Devers will age physically. $350m+ is a huge number.
I am not convinced FSG is against going beyond reason if the timing is right. Once the system starts producing inexpensive Fenway regulars I could see the Sox investing to lock in production from a young, Soto type position player. I think high priced, sort term mercenary pitchers will also be in play.Something to think about in this regard: The largest contract ever given out by the Red Sox is the 7/$217M deal David Price signed in 2015. We're closing in on a decade's worth of exploding contracts since then, and the Red Sox have been left on the sidelines in terms of getting involved.
All the anecdotal evidence, via reporting, suggests that they haven't been making offers that go "beyond reason" in line with what's been happening around the sport. The idea that would switch gears for Soto (or, far less likely, Ohtani) seems unlikely ... more so if they extend Devers.