Cause invariably the "silly season" always leads to way too much analysis and people looking for stuff to write/opine on keep digging and digging... plus every so often a QB from lower down does payoff... so everyone wants to be remembered as being "right" on that guy (no one will remember all the ones you get wrong since the draft is a bit of a crapshoot anyways)... it's why you have stupidity like Polian (or someone from the Colts org) opining about how they "for realz" had a super high 1st round on Brady... several years after the fact...I've only been half paying attention to the draft talk lately. Can someone point me to an explanation as to how a high profile guy like McCarthy goes from maybe the 6th best QB on the board three months ago to being in play for #3?
It’s also a situation where a lot of media types are catching up on a guy who didn’t have the big numbers but who a lot of nfl scouts believe (correctly imo) can play. It’s easy to know maye has potential. You have to actually watch the film to realize mccarthy does too.Cause invariably the "silly season" always leads to way too much analysis and people looking for stuff to write/opine on keep digging and digging... plus every so often a QB from lower down does payoff... so everyone wants to be remembered as being "right" on that guy (no one will remember all the ones you get wrong since the draft is a bit of a crapshoot anyways)... it's why you have stupidity like Polian (or someone from the Colts org) opining about how they "for realz" had a super high 1st round on Brady... several years after the fact...
Jim Harbaugh also says he's the #1 QB in the draft, which serves own ego as his coach and also hopes it pushes him in the Top 4 picks so he can draft Marvin Harrison Jr.It’s also a situation where a lot of media types are catching up on a guy who didn’t have the big numbers but who a lot of nfl scouts believe (correctly imo) can play. It’s easy to know maye has potential. You have to actually watch the film to realize mccarthy does too.
(vast majority of Michigan fans would have said months ago that he was worth a look. Why? Bc we watched him play.)
I'd rather go OT at 34 if Suamataia or Guyton is there. every year is loaded with WR talent now, OT much harder to findIf Maye is there at #3 I hope we double dip WR at 34 and 68 or at least 34 and 103. Punt T until next season when I would still expect to be drafting no worse than middle of the 1st. Let Maye sit the season behind Brissett and develop the WRs you draft so they are ready to contribute heavily in 2025 along with Maye. I think at 34 you have a decent shot at AD Mitchell or Keon Coleman who have #1 talent but will need at least a year of development. At 68 I'd be targeting Pearsall or Roman Wilson and 103 Johnny Wilson or Jermaine Burton.
Because he was 3rd QB on many teams board pre-season and never moved. Brugler has him QB 4 but also had him player #19 pre-season and all through has said he heard NFL teams were really high on himI've only been half paying attention to the draft talk lately. Can someone point me to an explanation as to how a high profile guy like McCarthy goes from maybe the 6th best QB on the board three months ago to being in play for #3?
One thing is draft people and non. So Penix... None of the people who primarily cover the draft really moved him off Texas, that was non-draft people who hadn't even looked at the draft prospects.The hype train does funny things with quarterbacks. Speeds up, derails. Remember that week after the Texas game when, in many eyes, Penix was a top four draft pick?
That's not really true though. Typically if you look at the drafts from 2020-2023 you rarely have more than 1-3 WR that become impact players taken after round 1. This draft has the potential for 4-6+ to be impact players after the 4-5 expected to be taken in the first. Obviously if there is a run at WR and the value isn't there they shouldn't reach but I think you will likely be getting a rd 1 WR in any of the previous drafts in early to mid rd 2.I'd rather go OT at 34 if Suamataia or Guyton is there. every year is loaded with WR talent now, OT much harder to find
A lot of people who cover the draft year round have been talking about McCarthy going high since the fall and have mentioned that NFL scouts love himI've only been half paying attention to the draft talk lately. Can someone point me to an explanation as to how a high profile guy like McCarthy goes from maybe the 6th best QB on the board three months ago to being in play for #3?
We have a 1st next year to use on a WR, and generally there are more elite WR prospects round 1.That's not really true though. Typically if you look at the drafts from 2020-2023 you rarely have more than 1-3 WR that become impact players taken after round 1. This draft has the potential for 4-6+ to be impact players after the 4-5 expected to be taken in the first. Obviously if there is a run at WR and the value isn't there they shouldn't reach but I think you will likely be getting a rd 1 WR in any of the previous drafts in early to mid rd 2.
If a team uses Keon like N'keal was used as a contested catch boundary receiver he'll probably fail like N'keal did. The analysts I trust seem to think Keon could thrive as a big slot. He had the best gauntlet drill at the combine which is what Puka excelled in last year as well. Keon has impressive hands and maintains his speed through the catch well. The lack of separation is a legit concern but also why he should be available late 1st early 2nd. That said I won't be surprised if his counterpart Johnny Wilson ends up being a better pro and can prob be had a round or two later.I've read a lot of people who cover the draft extremely closely, all year round, who have watched every spec of game film there is on J.J. McCarthy, who believe his being a top 5 pick and anywhere ABOVE Drake Maye is ridiculous. Lots of different perspectives on countless prospects, who knows how it'll pan out.
If the Patriots draft Keon Coleman gives off (to me anyway) major N'Keal vibes. I really hope they go after more athletic guys who can actually separate, rather than Coleman types.
Honestly I’m not a fan of either Daniels or JJM, so if those are the options at #3 I’m hoping that the Patriots make a deal with Minnesota or whoever to acquire a passel of picks.Team picking #2 has an offense that fits Daniels better and team wouldn't be blasted for picking him at #2.
Team picking #3 has an offense that fits Maye better and team wouldn't be blasted for picking him #3.
That 100% means each team ends up with the other guy doesn't it?
Also you could like both and just have liked Baker better, either in abstract or for your particular situation.Or that Drake Maye and Josh Allen are not exact clones of each other and it is actually possible to like one and not the other.
I don't think anyone thinks he has a huge arm. Solid one, but he gets his velocity via on platform throws where he uses everything he's got, his overall arm strength is better than Daniels, but not top of the class. He seems to be a good athlete, but not an elite one, and he's a good runner but not a great one. He's similar to Maye and/or Williams as a runner, below Daniels (who is himself below Lamar for example). I think people got fooled on the arm by the combine velocity number, nobody before or since thought he had a huge arm. Good one... sure.If McCarthy has a huge arm (and apparently he does), and is an elite athlete (and apparently he is), then isn't his ceiling....pretty damned high?
I want Maye over him, but I don't think McCarthy's ceiling is any sort of "solid" game manager or anything.
This is wha tI've heard as well. That JJ's arm strength, while certainly better than Mac's (see also: my 12-year-old son's), was misleadingly "strong" b/c, when measured at the combine, it was a stop and put ALL your weight into it - the kind of throw that hardly ever happens in an actual, ya know, football game. He just seems to me to be a potentially good, solid QB, which is NOT what you take at #3 overall. It's not the kind of big swing DIFFERENCE MAKER that merits that kind of selection.I don't think anyone thinks he has a huge arm. Solid one, but he gets his velocity via on platform throws where he uses everything he's got, his overall arm strength is better than Daniels, but not top of the class. He seems to be a good athlete, but not an elite one, and he's a good runner but not a great one. He's similar to Maye and/or Williams as a runner, below Daniels (who is himself below Lamar for example). I think people got fooled on the arm by the combine velocity number, nobody before or since thought he had a huge arm. Good one... sure.
McCarthy most evaluators I have seen think he's a guy who can be a B/B+ in a lot of things, and that could be a really good QB, but he's not generally seen as having any elite tool. Solid size, but not top end (he's not Daniels, but he's not Maye either, he's probably going to sit in the 215 are, maybe the 220 range for actual play weight once he fills out, he was playing below 200 this year.
Well if Wolf can’t bring in competent OL and a dynamic WR or two in the next 3 years, all discussion of ceiling and floor is moot since the team will be cleaning house and trying again in 2027 regardless of which QB is on the rosterNot sure why you're focusing on "ceiling" here.
Unless the Pats suddenly get some OL studs and WR playemakers, no QB is going to get anywhere close to their ceiling on this team.
I mean if New England were drafting #2, this would be completely reasonable. They're not.Don't overthink. Just take Maye.
Right. I’d love for that to be the case, but it’s entirely possible that Maye is not available, so the Pats really need to have their alternative plan set up and thoroughly researched.I mean if New England were drafting #2, this would be completely reasonable. They're not.
You realize they will also be attempting to add those guys too right?Not sure why you're focusing on "ceiling" here.
Unless the Pats suddenly get some OL studs and WR playemakers, no QB is going to get anywhere close to their ceiling on this team.
Wouldn't that be.... more reason to focus on ceiling? Very few players hit their ceiling, so the appeal of higher ceiling players is they can be much better without hitting their full ceiling.Not sure why you're focusing on "ceiling" here.
Unless the Pats suddenly get some OL studs and WR playemakers, no QB is going to get anywhere close to their ceiling on this team.
The answer here is unless internally there are massive red flags on either or both of Maye or Daniels they are going to role the dice on whoever is there at #3.You realize they will also be attempting to add those guys too right?
It should be noted that approach number 2 has yielded way fewer titles than approach number 1 in the past 25 years. Even if you build the Eagles or the 49ers and have a shit ton of talent all over, you'll still have to get past Patrick Mahomes and then good luck.Wouldn't that be.... more reason to focus on ceiling? Very few players hit their ceiling, so the appeal of higher ceiling players is they can be much better without hitting their full ceiling.
But beyond that... look around the league, you succeed one of two ways....
1. You have an elite QB.... you're a contender as long as you have that QB, and can do a lot more with less at other positions.
2. You build a freakshow great roster with a competent and cheap QB. That gives you a window, though a shorter one.
If you can't being the great roster.... you need the highest ceiling QB you can get. If you're really lucky.... you get the high ceiling QB AND build out the roster while he's cheap. That gives you a window while he's still improving, then when you have to pay him he's developed hopefully into the kind of elite talent who can do more with less.
Because he went to Michigan? I think that they went to the same school will be compared, but the player?I think my biggest hesitation to McCarthy is if he becomes a Patriot, he will be forever compared to TB. Not many could excel under that spot light.
The other problem is that having an expensive elite QB isn't such a drag on roster construction that some well-run team with that kind of QB won't also be able to amass and retain a shit ton of talent. And so you not only have to get past Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady but you have to score on a Top 5 defense, defend a HoF tight end, etc etc.It should be noted that approach number 2 has yielded way fewer titles than approach number 1 in the past 25 years. Even if you build the Eagles or the 49ers and have a shit ton of talent all over, you'll still have to get past Patrick Mahomes and then good luck.
Option #2 is riskier and certainly far less proven, but I don't think that it's a given that it's impossible (or a coping mechanism). The Niners keep making it to Super Bowls doing this, as do the Eagles. If you look at the Super Bowl participants and champions of the last 20 years, there are plenty of guys on that list who are not elite QBs. Eli Manning has two rings and a .500 record and 60% career completion percentage.Approach #2 isn't really a strategic alternative, its just a coping mechanism if you don't happen to have an elite QB.
I don't think its impossible. But its only something you embrace if you haven't been able to land that elite QB and the chances of it working are really low. Plenty of teams have made, or even won, Super Bowls without an elite QB but the denominator for that category is huge.Option #2 is riskier and certainly far less proven, but I don't think that it's a given that it's impossible (or a coping mechanism). The Niners keep making it to Super Bowls doing this, as do the Eagles. If you look at the Super Bowl participants and champions of the last 20 years, there are plenty of guys on that list who are not elite QBs. Eli Manning has two rings and a .500 record and 60% career completion percentage.
I don't want to go that route, but we dismiss it as crazy talk too easily IMO.
Strengths:However, it's challenging to envision McCarthy being the reason you win versus a passenger on a winning roster, and that extends beyond his usage at Michigan. As a thrower, McCarthy needs an exaggerated step into his throws to drive the ball into tighter windows and outside the numbers. Due to his elongated base, like a pitcher throwing off the mound, McCarthy sacrifices touch and control for velocity, leading to sprays on routine throws. Mentally, he's not overly creative with tunnel vision for initial reads in the progressions, which can get him into trouble.
Strength I - Playing Within Pro-Style Structure
Along with being a prolific winner, McCarthy is appealing to teams because Michigan's offensive system translates well to the next level. Although he wasn't responsible for making pre-snap checks and alerts at the line, McCarthy is one of a few college prospects with exposure to playing under center. He also made pro-style reads and throws, where he was efficient within structure on NFL-style concepts. McCarthy's footwork in his drops and throwing motion are very clean.
Strength II - Pocket Movement and Play Extension
The other clear positive for McCarthy that might be his most intriguing trait is his quick-twitch movements to maneuver the pocket and extend plays by evading rushers.
First, McCarthy needs to put his weight into throws to generate velocity. In particular, he'll over-stride to generate RPMs on drive throws. This impacts his accuracy when he throws into the sideline, particularly when throwing to his left. When he's in an NFL pocket rather than a Michigan pocket, McCarthy might struggle to hit NFL-sized passing windows without the luxury of having space to step into with his front foot. Does he generate easy velocity from congested pockets? The answer is no.
The more common theme for McCarthy on film is that he'll have tunnel vision on his first read and will force throws into covered receivers rather than seeing the full picture.
Bottom Line
Based on being a younger prospect, many evaluators believe McCarthy has a high ceiling because he has the necessary physical tools and mental makeup to continue improving.
However, my view is he's more in the Brock Purdy mold. McCarthy doesn't throw with consistent touch, deep accuracy, or accuracy outside the numbers. He also isn't an overly creative coverage manipulator from the pocket or a passer who maximizes each drop-back by creating passing lanes with various arm angles. From this perspective, those are the elements that make a quarterback prospect elite.
You don't see a special talent when you study McCarthy on film. He's a more physically gifted prospect than, let's say, Mac Jones. But he isn't oozing with arm talent like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, while Jayden Daniels is in a different tier in mobility. The Michigan product also has a ways to go in terms of mental processing.
Yeah, that's going to be the case no matter who is the Pats QB. And as it should be.Because Pats fans.
I won't. Because you can't.I posted a while back about the possibility that Tom Brady "ruined" us as Pats fans, because we will forever compare any QB to him, which is just unfair to whichever QB that is.
You compared Mac to Brady? God Bless You.Yeah, that's going to be the case no matter who is the Pats QB. And as it should be.
Well, we're getting Mayo vs. BB pretty often so, yeah...it's a thingYou compared Mac to Brady? God Bless You.
Well, I'm sure glad I'm not one of them. Expecting Mac to be good, okay. But the Greatest?Well, we're getting Mayo vs. BB pretty often so, yeah...it's a thing
Is it, though? Seems to me that having so much of your resources tied up in a single player is a riskier proposition. Especially as the guaranteed contracts increase, if you invest so much in one player and he's injured or a bust, you really are in a pickle.Option #2 is riskier.
#2 is much riskier.... you need to hit on like 10 positions and you still need to hit the QB to an extent, and you're far more vulnerable to contract issues... and you usually lose in the playoffs to a team who hit on the elite QB and did a good job on support. Your ceiling is capped and you need to consistently be able to get acceptable QB play for cheap, which is tough in the NFL.Is it, though? Seems to me that having so much of your resources tied up in a single player is a riskier proposition. Especially as the guaranteed contracts increase, if you invest so much in one player and he's injured or a bust, you really are in a pickle.
I'm not a Mac Jones fan at all, but I believe there is an alternative universe where the Patriots make some better roster and coaching decisions and the Patriots would have been a playoff team by now.
The QB in your example is paid peanuts while you determine whether he is any good.Is it, though? Seems to me that having so much of your resources tied up in a single player is a riskier proposition. Especially as the guaranteed contracts increase, if you invest so much in one player and he's injured or a bust, you really are in a pickle.
I'm not a Mac Jones fan at all, but I believe there is an alternative universe where the Patriots make some better roster and coaching decisions and the Patriots would have been a playoff team by now.
"He had that great bowl game but I think he’s just very common. He’s a bony, very thin kind of guy. God, you can see his ribs on his build. His arm is just adequate.” — Midwest scout for NFC team
“Outstanding leader,” the personnel man wrote. “Priest-like personality. Calm, wise and thoughtful. He’s accepting of what comes his way. Doesn’t appear to be dynamic. Has a calming demeanor. Well-liked, class kid. Has work ethic. Respected by his teammates. Two supportive parents who attend every game.”
I know the game has changed a ton since Brady was drafted. But it's a helpful reminder, to me at least, to take a deep breath when my head is exploding because I'm trying first to figure out which QB I'd like and which one I hope with all my heart and soul my team drafts. I still think Drake Maye, if he's there at #3, is the QB I'd prefer the Pats to take. But, if it turns out to be JJM or even Nix, I'm not going to give up hope.Here was the scout’s summary of Brady’s football ability: “Tough, will take hit to deliver the ball. Durable, but not real strong. Not overly quick setting up. Comes on balance to throw. Doesn’t throw a tight ball; it waffles a lot. Puts lots of air under his deep balls. Lacks deep-ball accuracy; will underthrow. Limited pocket movement. Has weight down to improve his quickness and mobility. Can throw on the move. Questionable read ability. At times, I think he predetermines his throws. Lacks accuracy; sprays the ball.”