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What About That Miggy Guy?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat, Nov 9, 2017.

  1. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I've said from the start and I'll say until the end--DD is going after Miggy.
     
  2. Hank Scorpio

    Hank Scorpio Member SoSH Member

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    If DD decides to go out and acquire Cabrera, who just posted a negative WAR season and is due approx $30M/yr for his age 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 seasons, he should be fired on the spot. Not everyone is David Ortiz.

    Let’s go after Pujols while we’re at it.
     
  3. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    He had a bad year and is body is definitely banged up, but Statcast data suggests Miggy is still close to an elite hitter.

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2...raphs-line-drives-hard-hit-rate-exit-velocity
     
  4. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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  5. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    For the record, I'm not saying it's necessarily a great idea. I just think it's what DD will do. I do think that his demise is being greatly overstated, unless the injury he had last year is chronic. He had one bad year and is one year removed from a typical excellent one.
    Not everyone is Albert Pujols.
     
  6. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Not everyone is David Ortiz either. Miggy will be 35 next year and has never been the poster child for conditioning.

    If he were a free agent his year, would he get even half of his current deal -- 5 years, 76 mil? I think maybe he gets that AAV, maybe a bit more, but only over 3 years, 3/54.
     
  7. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    I agree re Cabrera. I think he can bounce back a bit with better luck from the BABIP gods, but it's also probably worth noting that Miggy isn't really joining the Launch Angle revolution. His game is still hitting line drives, and, as such, I'm wondering if he's really a 30 HR guy going forward. He's been at 25 or fewer for 3 of the past injury-marred seasons. A rebound scenario of a hybrid of 2014/2016 with a .300/.380/.525 line and 25 dingers, in a relatively healthy season, is more probable than a return to his 2015 38 HR power.

    Of course, that kind of season would be great, but how many healthy seasons with good luck can we reasonably expect from Miggy going forward, and does that expectation carry for 5 years at $30M per? I think Moondog's pessimism is warranted.

    But if Detroit would take, say, Sam Travis and TW Lin in exchange and lop $12M+ off per year, I'd be willing to listen.
     
  8. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    It’s an awful contract regardless.

    But if Avila thinks Miggy has gone full Pujols when he’s actually got 3-4 more .370-.380 wOBA years left in him, it might be buying low if DD insists on the right amount of money or players in return.
     
  9. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

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    I think this is what they will do as well - I think the chance of them getting JD are now less than 10%.

    With Stanton, a lot depends on what other teams are in the running, and whether (and how much) they are asking the Marlins to eat on the contract. If DD is willing to eat the entire contract (which I would be willing to do to keep the acquisition cost low), that may move us near the front of the line from the Marlins' perspective, if their first priority is budget reduction - I don't think we have much chance if the Marlins are looking for a big return, and are willing to eat money to get it, because we just don't have the chips. And we don't really know what Stanton has told the Marlins relative to his NTC, such as whether he would accept a trade to Boston, or if he only wants a California team.

    As for Cabrera, I think he's a possible target. His underlying numbers (LD and hard hit #s in particular) were not out of line with his career norms, so I don't think he was as bad last year as the slash line might indicate. But given the age/injury risk, I don't see that DD would be willing to take on that entire contract even if they were giving him away for a bag of balls, so the Tigers would have to eat a good chunk of it to make it work. But this would at least be an option I'd explore if I were in DD's shoes.
     
  10. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    And that's a good question: What would Miggy get as a FA (say, with a QO extended) this year? Would he get a better deal than Carlos Santana? Who would the Sox be better off signing? I'd rather have Santana at 4 yrs/$64M than Miggy at a subsidized 5/$90M. Santana can actually play 1B well and has been relatively healthy.
     
  11. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    The interesting way it could play out is if other players as good or better than the ones we have now coming from the Tigers in a Miggy trade make it possible to deal from strength. Castellanos would make it possible to deal Bradley, etc.
     
  12. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 lurker

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    You people were also convinced he was gonna hire Brad Ausmus this off-season. How about a giant step back from the ledge?
     
  13. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I think people are generally reading into much into DD/JH's willingness to be completely reckless with payroll, which seems mostly based on the Price signing. Price was a fairly unique situation that had been building for some time, and going all-in on a 30yo front line starting pitcher is a different beast then desperately reaching at a potentially washed up 35yo on a terrible contract just because you want a "big name bat". Who it's not even clear upgrades our lineup in the short term at that.

    Last winter in particular they showed restraint on EE, who looked a heck of a lot better then Miggy does now. If they were going to get desperate they'd of done it then before now imo. Getting under the LT for a single year, which anybody doing the math at the time could see coming on the horizon, wasn't *that* important or game changing here. For as much crying as some of us did over the offense last year, it's also important to keep in perspective that we were still 10th overall in runs scored in route to winning 93 games and the division. We simply didn't hit enough home runs in the process. Looking to tweak that latter while hoping we see a couple upticks elsewhere that leads to more runs scored is one thing. Being big name stupid about an upgrade approach is another.

    I'd personally like to think DD isn't stupid. But even if he was there, I'll then keep the faith that JH would never sign off on it anyway. This isn't the first rough spot rodeo that's come to town since he took over.
     
  14. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    If Detroit is willing to take Hanley, that establishes a reasonable foundation for Cabrera to be traded to Boston.

    Detroit appears to be in full 2-3 year rebuild mode, though, so any MLB players going there would either be for backfilling/salary offsets, or guys with 5+ years of eligibility remaining.

    But honestly, something like Hanley + Barnes + Johnson might be enough to get Cabrera with no salary offset, when all is said and done. That might even be a good deal for both sides.

    Of course, whether such a move is a smart bet or risky business depends entirely on something none of us actually know — how rough that MRI of Miggy’s back looks.
     
  15. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Yes to this.

    Also, Avila might also be extra motivated to deal Cabrera this offseason, for what it’s worth. His body is clearly ready to transition to DH, where Detroit still has the even more positionless Wiktor under contract next year. If Miggy plays first base and battles injuries another year, he could be even less productive, less tradeable, and more of an albatross going forward.

    Sorry to keep beating this drum if folks are done considering it. Again, he might be cooked, and I would far prefer JDM. But if the price goes low enough, who knows.
     
    #15 chawson, Nov 9, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2017
  16. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    If they are willing to trade for Cabrera, I'd rather they make a run at Votto. He'd probably cost more in way of talent and we'd have to take on the full contract.
     
  17. Rough Carrigan

    Rough Carrigan reasons within Reason Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Before the era of . . special vitamins, age 33-34 used to be when a lot of really special players of the big or heavy type fell apart. . No thanks.
     
  18. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    Joey Votto has said time and time again he is never leaving the Reds. He has a no trade clause. He will never play for the Red Sox
     
  19. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Glad this got broken out
    Sad it wasn't titled "Getting Miggy with it?"
     
  20. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    As an adjunct to this, my math has the Sox on the hook for an AAV of $186.5MM + benefits, if they trade Hanley for Miggy straight-up.

    Note this is not a total 2018 payroll calculation, just an estimate which ignores Pedroia's deferred comp, assumes Sale makes his CY option kicker, and chisels into stone that MLBTradeRumors gets every arbitration award estimate dead-on.

    If the Sox actually did trade Hanley/Barnes/Johnson for Miggy and then dropped Holt and Wright and Workman off the 40-man roster, they'd probably just barely limbo under the CBT's bar. Of course, JWH said that DDski doesn't have to stay under the $197MM cap...plus Cora would have to plug Swihart or Brentz into the everyday lineup to stay under...but it's a nearer thing than I was imagining at first.

    Of course, this math also means that if DDski were simply to re-sign Moreland to a 1-yr/$9M contract, the team might well be better off than by trading for Miggy.
     
  21. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Member

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    Yep. Spending $180M for Miggy age 35-40 makes way less sense than spending $200 for JDMart for age 30-38, which supposedly what Boras is asking for JD.
     
  22. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Acquiring a 35-year-old tethered to a six-year commitment, who flashed signals last year that his decline may have begun, would be distressingly stupid. Please, DD, don’t do it.
     
  23. adam42381

    adam42381 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Agreed. This would be monumentally stupid. Even if it were to work out, which is highly unlikely, it would be a terrible risk/reward transaction.
     
  24. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Agree. Trading for Cabrera alone is stupid. Even Hanley and Barnes is too much, imo.

    It gets interesting when young, cost-controlled pre-breakout players get added to the conversation to help us absorb that risk.

    And this is putting aside Kinsler and his low AAV ($6m toward the luxury tax) being an obvious fit.
     
  25. RustyKuntzwasnotastripper

    RustyKuntzwasnotastripper lurker

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    This is probably a stupid question, but is there any way they could also trade the cash owed Panda to help offset the cost?
     
  26. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    They could have the Tigers pick up the same amount, but no, they can't trade cash owed.
     
  27. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You write this as if that's a given
     
  28. Tyrone Biggums

    Tyrone Biggums nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion SoSH Member

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    If they trade for Miggy Detroit better be picking up a lot of money....A LOT OF MONEY
     
  29. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    It’s not, and I don’t mean to.

    My guarded optimism comes from this piece, which I linked to in the off-season thread:
    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/p...raphs-line-drives-hard-hit-rate-exit-velocity

    It’s tempting to compare him to Pujols’ decline and be done with it, but that’s too facile at this point. They’re equally gifted, HoF hitters. So was David Ortiz.

    Even in his awful 2017, Cabrera posted better exit velo and batted ball data than any Pujols season since 2010. He very well might fall apart, but 2017 is not a smoking gun it’s about to happen.
     
  30. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    I'm still trying to figure out what question Cabrera answers. If we're looking for more power, particularly more HRs, I'm not buying it. 2016 looks like the outlier in his past 4 seasons. Sure, he used to be a consistent 30+ HR guy; I don't think he is anymore. And it's risky/irrationally hopeful just to picture him as a .300/.380/.525 guy for the next couple of seasons, let alone the length of his remaining deal.

    I guess I like the idea of giving them Hanley back, as I think it's a reasonable bet that Miggy beats Hanley over the next two seasons (even if he didn't last year). But I wouldn't pay $10M more per season for that upgrade and then full freight for 4 more seasons. That's insanity. Detroit would still have to heavily subsidize that contract to make it palatable.

    And we'd still need someone to play 1B.
     

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