That’s pretty much how they won four titles. Or at least three; 2013 they had Lester and Buch. Pitching development is so unpredictable that it’s not a terrible idea to go this route, although pitching prospects are amazing trade chips.
Valuing the assets, where do the Sox stand?
- Thread starter grimshaw
- Start date
Adding to this, the Sox made a point of selecting athletic players in this year’s draft, the kind that might make an easier transition to new/additional positions. And they’ve already announced that Zanetello will play some OF in addition to SS.
It’s a fair point about pitching in the organization, but one that is evolving. Shane Drohan has struggled since his promotion to Worcester but the Sox reportedly believe he has excellent stuff and has the potential to start in the majors. Then there is the wave of arms in A ball such as Perales, Gonzalez, and Rodriguez-Cruz that are turning heads. Sox Scouts recently tweeted out a graphic showing they all have impressive underlying metrics. They’re all a long way away, and they obviously won’t all make it, but we’re starting to see the Sox build a pitching assembly line in the minors. I think the organization is going to have to continue to depend on free agent pitching for a few years but we are seeing the first hopeful pitching signs from the system in many years.
EDIT: Deleted some of this post because I misunderstood your idea about trading for pitching.
Wikelman just got promoted to AA & Perales to A+ so hopefully they will keep crushing it. With Perales moving up, you failed to mention by far my favorite Salem pitcher.
View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1673064011615576070
View: https://twitter.com/GreatDebateTC/status/1673154169363140610
View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1676013380681736194
And he wasn't on any prospect radar (Monegro), though scouting DSL guys can be difficult since skill levels are all over the place.
This may seem crazy but while Yorke's power is fun, I like Meidroth over Yorke and Valdez. Better bat control, better strike-zone judgement... I just like the chances of a guy who doesn't strike out much and walks a ton better than the guy with projectable power who's batting .270 at AA with a .350 BABIP.' Ive posted about this elsewhere but Yorke's K rate gives me the willies. He's young so it could improve, but I honestly think even Valdez is a better bet long-term to be a strong bat at 2B. Of course Valdez can't field and the org seems skeptical that Meidroth will stick at 2B, so he's playing a ton at third, so, I don't know...
As others have pointed out, this is why you try to fill the minors, so you can trade guys and still have others who will be knocking at the door. Guys like Valdez, Abreu, Rafaela and Scott are about ready to be tested (though Rafaela could use some more seasoning ), and by 2024 Meidroth, Blaze Jordan, Maye, Yorke will all be looking to get a crack at major league pitching, with guys like Anthony not far behind.
With potential turnover at first base (given Casas's struggles there, he might be destined for DH), catcher (I like Wong's defense, but he's striking out like a virgin at prom, and it feels like McGuire's bat is going to come undone too) second base (Arroyo is at his best a league averageish bat and at worst a boring hackathon), and right field (is this peak Verdugo, or has he reached a new level?), there'll be plenty of opportunity for those guys to break-in, and just as much grist for the trade machine.
BA has updated their top 100 and moved Anthony to #35. Seems like he has moved up to somewhere in the FV 50-55 range which is closer to something like 35-40 mill or so. He was a 45+ which is worth around 8 (or 11 on the trade evaluator)
Here's a nice chart for reference on farm system and tier worth.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
And then a nice primer on FV https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/
Here's a nice chart for reference on farm system and tier worth.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
And then a nice primer on FV https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/
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I have concerns about Yorke as well. First, his defense will never be better than OK, so he has to really hit to be a regular. His swinging K rate is alarmingly high for a guy with decent, but not great power. Misses a lot of pitches in the zone, and that's not great. Meidroth is interesting, but a defensively acceptable Valdez is more interesting, given his pop. Either way, we're probably looking at Mayer at SS and Story at 2B by next August.
If so, think about how much better the Sox’ up the middle infield defense will be when that happens, compared to what it’s been this year.
Well, I did come across this from March...
View: https://twitter.com/jeff_wax/status/1636208166579978242
A counterpoint on Yorke: evaluators used to talk about him as positionless; more recently, I've been reading that many actually think he will be pretty good at 2B.
I don't think he's untouchable by any stretch of the imagination, but that helps a lot. It's definitely a differentiator with respect to Enmanuel Valdez, for example.
I don't think he's untouchable by any stretch of the imagination, but that helps a lot. It's definitely a differentiator with respect to Enmanuel Valdez, for example.
I just really like Meidroth's plate discipline and hit tool. Have no idea if he can play 2B at the end of the day. 156 innings at 2B this year against 350 at 3B. Oh, and 9 innings at short.
Valdez is tough. I like him as trade bait because at 24 years-old, he's been playing 2B and 3B for 7 years now and is still fairly incompetent. (Though I would note that compared to the six errors he made in the bigs he's only made one at AAA so far). I think the bat is at least as good as Arroyo's right now and he has potential to be better given the flashes of plate discipline he's showed in the minors, but right now, we can't afford his bad glove. Valdez seems to go on extended heaters where he just turns into a monster at the plate (evidenced by the nearly .600 SLG% he's posting in AAA right now), but we didn't really see that in his limited time in the bigs. If Arroyo goes down again, maybe he gets another opportunity before Story comes back.
Yeah, Yorke has been playing defense pretty well & has displayed soft hands. A lot of the negative scouting reports about his defense related to range & arm concerns as a shortstop. By most accounts he's settled in quite well at 2B & has a chance to be a plus defender there.
Meidroth might not have the range to be a great 2B or the arm for 3B. He's been kicked to 3B I'm pretty sure because they prioritize Yorke over him in terms of prospect development.
Yorke definitely needs to cut down on the strikeouts while maintaining the pop to hit his ceiling.
Meidroth might not have the range to be a great 2B or the arm for 3B. He's been kicked to 3B I'm pretty sure because they prioritize Yorke over him in terms of prospect development.
Yorke definitely needs to cut down on the strikeouts while maintaining the pop to hit his ceiling.
I spent about 5 minutes looking at his Twitter to see if he was some sort of prospect savant & he just seems like a troll so I was quite confused lol
Agree on Liu. Don't think he's better than like the 20th best Red Sox starting pitching prospect.
Just FWIW, I was in no way trying to say "trade Yorke and Bleis because they stink" (and I wasn't even necessarily advocating to trade those specific players). I'm advocating to trade them (or someone like them) BECAUSE they're valuable as good prospects. However, we have a lot of good prospects capable of playing "up the middle positions" - which happens when you draft a lot of up the middle positions. I agree it's a feature, not a bug, as someone else pointed out because GENERALLY speaking, if someone is able to play SS or CF at a high enough level to make lets call it A+ or AA, then it's a pretty decent bet they could defensively handle a move down the aisle.
The one thing we're really lacking in the system (outside of Bello) is someone whom is likely to be ready in the next couple of years that looks like a top of the rotation starter.
Of the players SoxProspects project as coming up between 2023-2026 (from the top 20), Drohan is the only one where they even suggest the possibility of being more than a mid rotation starter.
Drohan - Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. His 6.10 FIP in his first 10 starts at AAA at least suggest maybe pumping the breaks on him a bit and focusing on the "mid rotation starter" ceiling, at least in my opinion.
Perales - Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.
Gonzalez - Potential swingman capable of starting or providing length out of the bullpen.
Walter - Potential depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter or bulk reliever.
Mata - Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm
Rodriguez-Cruz - Early ingredients for a potential back-end starter.
Conversely, here was their take on Bello - Potential mid-rotation starter. Ceiling of a number two starter or high-end number three.
FWIW, I agree with others that have said the team will not trade any top prospects in the next couple of seasons. I think it's FAR more likely they go the Cherington route and hold literally everyone (though even he dealt Iglesias) and hope to strike gold on short term deals. Of course, that's a lot easier when you have David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz as long term cost controlled pieces of the MLB roster, but that's another matter.
I'm just saying I'd really like to see Bloom make a call on deciding which of his trove of prospects are expendable for another top half of the rotation starter with term; not that I think it'll actually happen.
The one thing we're really lacking in the system (outside of Bello) is someone whom is likely to be ready in the next couple of years that looks like a top of the rotation starter.
Of the players SoxProspects project as coming up between 2023-2026 (from the top 20), Drohan is the only one where they even suggest the possibility of being more than a mid rotation starter.
Drohan - Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future. His 6.10 FIP in his first 10 starts at AAA at least suggest maybe pumping the breaks on him a bit and focusing on the "mid rotation starter" ceiling, at least in my opinion.
Perales - Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.
Gonzalez - Potential swingman capable of starting or providing length out of the bullpen.
Walter - Potential depth starter. Ceiling of a back-end starter or bulk reliever.
Mata - Potential multi-inning relief arm. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm
Rodriguez-Cruz - Early ingredients for a potential back-end starter.
Conversely, here was their take on Bello - Potential mid-rotation starter. Ceiling of a number two starter or high-end number three.
FWIW, I agree with others that have said the team will not trade any top prospects in the next couple of seasons. I think it's FAR more likely they go the Cherington route and hold literally everyone (though even he dealt Iglesias) and hope to strike gold on short term deals. Of course, that's a lot easier when you have David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz as long term cost controlled pieces of the MLB roster, but that's another matter.
I'm just saying I'd really like to see Bloom make a call on deciding which of his trove of prospects are expendable for another top half of the rotation starter with term; not that I think it'll actually happen.
When reading over some of the thoughts on comparing the prospect glut to 2016, I think one thing we have to consider in terms of long term value is the league shift to locking in elite talent in their rookie or second seasons for seasons beyond their arbitration window. We traded Moncada and Kopech for Sale, but if Chris Sale debuts in 2020 and not 2010, and as of right now is in the midst of his second Top 5 pitching season as an SP...does Chicago move to lock him in and thus make any pressure to move him with a year left on his deal less relevant? We've seen it with the Braves aggressively but Tampa, Arizona and Seattle both locked in their future stars immediately, and Cleveland, Pittsburgh, etc.. The Sox even did this to a lesser extent with Whitlock and Barnes. Some of this is just to avoid the arbitration process and give each side some guarantees. I think it just makes the pool of "impending FA talent' weaker and might diminish the value as trade chips.
This is not an argument not to trade prospects - I think they should for the right return and if a title is in reach - but that the pool of talent to trade for may be less than it was.
This is not an argument not to trade prospects - I think they should for the right return and if a title is in reach - but that the pool of talent to trade for may be less than it was.
There is 0 chance SoxProspects actually feels this way about their #7 prospect who hasn't even pitched an inning in high-A yet.
So does Bello. The ceiling stuff isn't actual ceiling so it's kind of silly anyway. Some of those players will hit higher than their ceiling, most won't come close to reaching it.
Most of their stuff lags. Perales absolutely has ace upside.
So does Bello. The ceiling stuff isn't actual ceiling so it's kind of silly anyway. Some of those players will hit higher than their ceiling, most won't come close to reaching it.
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White Sox did lock Sale in - he was under contract for another 2.5 years at way below market value. That's why they were able to get such a huge haul for him (in hindsight the haul wasn't as huge as it might have been due to injuries).
This made me go back and check what the SoxProspects guys had written in 2019-20 for Bello's projection.
Has the early makings of a three-pitch mix that makes him a potential number four or five starter. Very young with a lot of development remaining and a wide variation of potential outcomes. Fastball, slider combination could profile in a bullpen role if changeup and command don't develop. Not the most imposing physically, but still has projection and has the type of athleticism you look for.
He also had an overall velocity leap coming out of covid. They were high on him last year early because of that.
The trade simulator site did some major catch up in values at the All-Star break. The Sox have moved forward a bit with the top teams losing a lot of sheen.
Rays - $691 (was $810)
Mariners - $592 (was $663)
Orioles - $455 (was $524)
Astros - $421 (was $491)
Guardians - $420 (was $398)
Twins - $361 (was $370)
Sox - $335 (was $321)
Rangers - $326 (was $333)
Jays - $323 was ($365)
Angels $299 (was $261)
Yanks - $243 (was $221)
The Sox notable changes:
Bello is up to 49 from 34 (Worth about Bryce Elder)
Whitlock is down to 17 from 32.
Casas is up to 39 from 28
Houck is up to 32
Bleis is up to 29 from 24
Yorke is up to 21 (forget he is only 21 too)
Rafaela is down to 18
Anthony is up to 15 from 11.
On the rental front - Paxton is worth 8
Rays - $691 (was $810)
Mariners - $592 (was $663)
Orioles - $455 (was $524)
Astros - $421 (was $491)
Guardians - $420 (was $398)
Twins - $361 (was $370)
Sox - $335 (was $321)
Rangers - $326 (was $333)
Jays - $323 was ($365)
Angels $299 (was $261)
Yanks - $243 (was $221)
The Sox notable changes:
Bello is up to 49 from 34 (Worth about Bryce Elder)
Whitlock is down to 17 from 32.
Casas is up to 39 from 28
Houck is up to 32
Bleis is up to 29 from 24
Yorke is up to 21 (forget he is only 21 too)
Rafaela is down to 18
Anthony is up to 15 from 11.
On the rental front - Paxton is worth 8
