Tragically Bad Prognostication, Once Again: 23-24 PL Predictions Thread

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Back for more punishment after picking Liverpool to win the league last year.

Contenders

1. Arsenal - Rationally you'd be a fool not to pick City but what fun is that?
2. City - They have to fall off some year...maybe?
3. United - Impressive work by ETH but I think still a year away from truly challenging.

European Dreams

4. Spurs - If they keep Kane, otherwise they fall to 7th.
5. Liverpool - If they have a strong end of window then I can see them going several spots higher.
6. Newcastle - Balancing European football is going to be challenging for such a high intensity side
7. Aston Villa - A very good squad that will have trouble going higher.
8. Chelsea - Nkunku injury is a killer, who is going to score and create goals for this team?
9. Brighton - Loses key players, keeps on going. One year it will come crashing down but not yet.

Safe

10. Forest - Best of the rest, Steve Cooper has more of a settled squad now.
11. West Ham - Should have moved on from Moyes. A manager obsessed with buying Maguire and McTominay won't go much lower but also won't go much higher.
12. Brentford - Another solid season safely in the league.

Not Safe

13. Burnley - Kompany will need to learn to be a bit more pragmatic to avoid a Norwich.
14. Palace - No real idea what to expect from this side.
15. Fulham - Not nearly as good as they seemed last year and Mitrovic appears very angry.
16. Bournemouth - Not really sure how they survived last year, nothing seems particularly sustainable.
17. Sheffield United - Who knows?
18. Everton - Sorry OCST
19. Wolves - This feels like the stage where Henry Hill Jorge Mendes and crew burn down the restaurant, having soaked it for all its worth.
20. Luton Town - Nice while it lasted.

Golden Boot: Erling Haaland
Player of the Year: Erling Haaland
Young Player of the Year: William Saliba

 

[Cellar-Door]

West Ham seems generous given (even counting Alvarez which isn't done) we finished 14th last season, downgraded DM significantly, lost a key bench midfielder, what was supposed to be our starting striker, and our sometime starting LB isn't training because he wants a move away, as does our starting striker.

Everyone assumes they eventually sign some players, but it isn't done yet and all indications behind the scenes are Moyes and the new Technical director are at odds and the owner is just jumping in randomly to back whichever player he saw on TV 5 years ago (Maguire).

I think Moyes is gone by Christmas and it's a fight all year to avoid relegation.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

West Ham seems generous given (even counting Alvarez which isn't done) we finished 14th last season, downgraded DM significantly, lost a key bench midfielder, what was supposed to be our starting striker, and our sometime starting LB isn't training because he wants a move away, as does our starting striker.

Everyone assumes they eventually sign some players, but it isn't done yet and all indications behind the scenes are Moyes and the new Technical director are at odds and the owner is just jumping in randomly to back whichever player he saw on TV 5 years ago (Maguire).

I think Moyes is gone by Christmas and it's a fight all year to avoid relegation.

Yeah, its definitely a prediction leaning heavily into the idea that they will sign a bunch of new players. It seems like even if they spend the money poorly its likely to be on players that have low ceilings but high enough floors to help keep the squad midtable (Maguire, McTominay, JWP, etc). I assume some kind of striker will be in there too.

By xPTS West Ham was 11th last year on about 51 points so I think there is some additional case for a reversion upward.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

OK, I'm going to amend that top of the table prediction...

Contenders

1. Arsenal
2. City
3. Liverpool
4. United

European Dreams

5. Newcastle
6. Spurs
7. Villa
8. Chelsea
9. Brighton

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

After the Caicedo bombshell ..

Liverpool - still need another CB

City - missing some big pieces that have gone to pastures greener

Arsenal - everything broke right for them last year - maybe not this year

United - sadly Ten Hag seems competent

Really you could pick any order from this lot

Europa league beckons

Newcastle - welcome to twice a week footie - West Ham collapsed in the league due to the demands of Europe

Spurs - Harry will be missed - enjoy your unearned trophy

Brighton - who needs a midfield
Villa
Chelsea - as mentioned Nkunku is a killer loss - they could finish anywhere between 4th and 10th

Mid table complacency

Brentford
West Ham JWP yay , McGuire nay, McTominay - yay
Forest
Burnley - this years Fulham

Nervous nellies
Bournemouth
Fulham

Relegation battles
Everton
Palace
Sheffield United
Wolves
Luton Town

I think you could pick any of this crew to go down

Golden Boot: Haaland
Player of the Year: Haaland
Golden Gloves: Allison
Young Player of the Year: Curtis Jones

 

[Zomp]

Mms gonna amend again? There’s a 2 amendment rule so make sure this time…

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Mms gonna amend again? There’s a 2 amendment rule so make sure this time…

Lol I clearly jumped the gun there.

Liverpool back in the mud.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Tier 1 - Contenders
1. MANC - The champs lose Mahrez and Gundogan, but add Gvardiol and Kovacic. Also, Haaland is a year older. No obvious candidates for regression (KDB is 32, but doesn't rely on speed), and several young players have plenty of room to improve (Foden, Alvarez, Lewis). Maybe an injury to Walker slows them down since he's such a wing stopper and he's older?

2. Arsenal - Even this Spurs fan respects their business this summer. Adding Timber and Rice should help get them from a good goal prevention side, to potentially one that can challenge. The Haavertz signing seems like money badly spent IMO, but hard to argue with their scouting dept. at the moment.

Tier 2 - UCL Level
3. Newcastle - Very solid summer by adding Tonali, Barnes, and Livramento, but probably not enough to push ahead of the two monsters above. Can the CBs survive another year and keep up the goal prevention? Tonali should help cover for the aging vets, and it's hard to think of a better double pivot than Tonali-Guimaraes.

4. Liverpool - Love the Mac signing, and Szobo seems quite good. But even though they have world class players at almost every spot, there's a lot of turnover and Kloppo experience out the door with Bobby, Hendo, Fab, etc.

5. Man U - Don't think they're close to challenging, as they didn't add enough firepower this summer. Did they ever make a serious run at Kane? Would Spurs have even considered an offer? Why didn't they move for any big name or even a promising striker? Onana will help a lot and they will be very difficult to score against.

6. Aston Villa - Really liked their summer, and think they have a real shot at top 4. Diaby, Torres, and Tielemans is a strong window. I think Diaby has the potential to be a monster. They'll be brutal to play against, but they lack top end quality at a few spots, and while the MF is good, it lacks some creativity and firepower.

Tier 3 - UEL Level
7. Spurs - Even with Ange changing things pretty drastically at the Lane, I think this squad has too much quality to fall into a tier below. IOW, I could see them finish as high as 6th or as low 11th/12th. The defense is much improved with the additions of Udogie and Van de Ven, Maddison and GLC are pretty ideal 8s for Ange, and decent backups at almost every spot (due in part to a bloated squad) mean that Spurs should be OK. They're going to leak goals (I'm pretty down on new GK Vicario), so their tides will rise and fall with their finishing. If Son bags 20 or Richy bags 15+, they'll be very good. I suspect they'll both finish between 10-15 which should keep them in the top half, but not in European places. No European competition this season either, so look for this team to start gelling around November.

8. Chelsea - This will be an interesting experiment, as I think the world of Poch as a manager, but I don't love the squad composition. I'm the biggest Enzo fan there is, and I like James quite a lot too, but I see a lot of question marks beyond that. I think 6th is their ceiling, but I think they could finish 10th too.

9. Brighton - Losing Mac and Caicedo will be too much to replace in one season. 6-10 is my guess.

10. Brentford - Nice moves this summer but not enough to move the needle, and Toney being suspended until January is going to hold them back immensely. They'll be very good and cohesive, but who's putting the ball in the net?

Tier 4 - Midtable
11. Fulham

12. Palace

13. West Ham

Not impressed with anyone's summer. Losing Rice will hurt WHU a lot.

Tier 5 - Bottom Half, Likely not Relegated

14. Bournemouth - Busy summer means they should be able to stay up. Big task to integrate all these quality players though.

15. Burnley - I'm ready for the Kompany experience and kudos to them for investing.

16. Everton - I think Everton will stay up quite comfortably this season. Oddly confident in this prediction, couldn't tell you exactly why.

Tier 6 - Relegation Contenders

17. Wolves - Lost a lot and are banking on Cunha heavily. I think the wheels could fall off here.

18. Nottingham Forest - A couple of nice pickups, but will it be enough? Perhaps just barely. I think Bournemouth, Burnley, Everton, Wolves, and NF will be duking it out for spots 17 and up.

19. Sheffield U - Not a lot of investment over the summer.

20. Luton - Didn't invest much and were the last team promoted. Going to be an uphill battle.

Golden Boot - Haaland, duh. 2nd place - Harry Kane Ivan Toney Salah? That's no fun, I'll say Ollie Watkins.

 

[dirtynine]

City

United
Liverpool
Arsenal

Brighton
Newcastle


Spurs
Brentford
Aston Villa
Forest
West Ham
Bournemouth
Burnley
Chelsea

Everton
Palace
Fulham

Wolves
Sheffield United


Luton Town

 

[Cellar-Door]

I refuse to predict anything until I see who the 6-8 new players West Ham is going to sign this window are, also who the 3-5 more outgoings are.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Tempted to amend again and make the contenders category only a single team.

 

[Eric1984]

After watching the match today I don't know what to think of West Ham. A point on the road against a suspect club. But should have been 3. Still -- assuming Paqueta's departure isn't so imminent and Alvarez (and presumably Maguire and JWP) are at all effective, perhaps the season won't be a disaster. They need a lot more. And though the European trophy bought Moyes some temporary goodwill it's already gone after this pathetic transfer period.

 

[67YAZ]

1. City - Losing KDB means a lot of grinding out results first half of the season, but no one is weeping for them. Haaland nets 40 in the EPL alone.
2. Arsenal - did the business they had to, though losing Timber sucks. He's a fun player.
3. ManU - fuck these guys
4. Chelsea - Poch is a real manager who will sort it out
5. Newcastle - don't make it out of the UCL group, but frees them up for a monster back half of the season
6. Liverpool - no #6 leaves you in 6th
7. Spurs
8. Villa
9. Brentford
10. Brighton - Europe is a lot of extra wear and tear
11. Bournemouth - they're swarming, chaotic style is going to be very entertaining. Shades of Bielsa, they'll run a lot of lower tables sides off the pitch and get run off by some big dogs
12. Burnely - JJ Watt is one of the best defenders in history
13. Forrest - hard to beat with the best shot-stopper in the world back in goal
14. Wolves - Unglamorous, effective
15. Fulham - predicting Mitrovic goes Saudi and they struggle for goals
16. Everton
17. Palace
18. Luton
19. West Ham - they'll fire Moyes, bring in Big Sam, but all too late
20. Sheffield United