View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1420114345577619459?s=20
Maybe he is serious about going to the west coast?
Maybe he is serious about going to the west coast?
View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1420114345577619459?s=20
Maybe he is serious about going to the west coast?
Or he wants to go where he thinks he has the best chance at a ring. The only thing in this for Scherzer is a long playoff run and him being a deciding factor in his new team winning a World Series. That enhances his value when the free agency period begins.Or has a particular thing against New York.
You may be on to something there. By that token though:I'm also one who doesn't think the Red Sox bullpen is that great...or reliable.
The bullpen stat I pay attenion to is WHIP (because we all know that bullpen ERA is meaningless and the whole point of a reliever is to avoid putting men on).
The Red Sox are currently 17th in WHIP, below the following AL Teams (in order)
That includes all 5 competitors for the WC spot.
- Tampa (1.13)
- NYY (1.19)
- Seattle
- Oakland
- Cleveland
- Toronto
- Houston
- Texas (for crying out loud)
- Boston (1.35)
The Bostons break out this way:
Barnes: .833
Sawamura: 1.248
Ottavino: 1.355
Taylor: 1.412
Darwinzon: 1.515
...Thankfully Whitlock: 1.042
Tampa?
Castillo: .991
Kittredge: .869
Thompson: 1.029
Springs: 1.031
Fairbanks: 1.290
That's a hell of a base bullpen
I don't know how I'd fix it, or if that's even possible - but the Red Sox could definitely benefit from some better arms out there, even conceding that Taylor is better than his numbers suggest
We can do both. Why would Boston be constrained by the CBT threshold? We reset last year.It is very sad that Hosmer is a legitimate upgrade for the Red Sox at 1B.
It is also very unlikely that the Red Sox match up with the Padres on this because the Padres are looking to trade him because they are up against the threshold.
The value of trading for Hosmer as an upgrade is much less than absorbing Hosmer for an A+ prospect. If you could do both then the trade might make sense for the Sox. Without the space under the threshold to do that it makes no sense for them, especially when there are multiple other options for upgrading at that position without taking on that much salary.
The whole point of a reliever is to prevent runs from scoring, just like it is with starters. Now, relievers sometimes come into games with runners on, so they can give up runs without it being attached to their own ERA, so yes, era means less for relievers than for starters, but still, their job is to prevent runs from scoring, above and beyond anything else.I'm also one who doesn't think the Red Sox bullpen is that great...or reliable.
The bullpen stat I pay attenion to is WHIP (because we all know that bullpen ERA is meaningless and the whole point of a reliever is to avoid putting men on).
I'm curious about this as well... Didn't we throw a pizza party when we confirmed we were reset last season? Isn't that so we could spend more of Henry's money once we had a chance to win again?We can do both. Why would Boston be constrained by the CBT threshold? We reset last year.
I also think the value of WHiP has changed a bit to a bend-but-don’t-break philosophy….You may be on to something there. By that token though:
Eovaldi 1.18
Pivetta 1.34
Erod 1.35
Perez 1.47
Richards 1.63
Houck 1.17 (!! - but SSS)
Taylors WHIP by month: April - 2.46, May - .88, June .77, July 1.58 (though most of that was in one outing) ...
Anyway, it seems anyway you slice they need an arm, starter or pen ....
When Putzy McScouty drafted Mitch Moreland in 2007, he said he thought Mitch might have "the best cheekbones of anyone I've ever drafted." From the texts received from Boston, one sense they would like to see him in San Diego for 2+months, especially if a juicy prospect was coming the other way.
Which is why SD won't trade him just to get rid of Hosmer.getting Abrams back as a trade chip gets us in the conversation for just about anyone else in baseball. He’s worth more than 1 1/2 years of Berrios.
He's a free agent after this year per baseball reference.Regarding Scherzer …has anyone actually looked at his contract? It runs until 2028 and he’s already 38.
https://theathletic.com/2732480/2021/07/27/rosenthal-trevor-story-max-scherzer-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=user_shared_article
The details in the story are a tad confusing but it sounds like the remaining portion of his contract is all deferred until 2028.
As with the amount the cap hit is also unclear … maybe 15m per year?
Sounds like a pretty risky proposition for a guy who could fall off the cliff at anytime.
He's a pending FA. Washington would be on the hook for nearly all the deferred salary. But the new team would be responsible for some of his deferred salary for 2028 (which impacts the 2021 CBT):Regarding Scherzer …has anyone actually looked at his contract? It runs until 2028 and he’s already 38.
https://theathletic.com/2732480/2021/07/27/rosenthal-trevor-story-max-scherzer-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=user_shared_article
The details in the story are a tad confusing but it sounds like the remaining portion of his contract is all deferred until 2028.
As with the amount the cap hit is also unclear … maybe 15m per year?
Sounds like a pretty risky proposition for a guy who could fall off the cliff at anytime.
He's not quite in Bobby Bonilla territory.Here’s what a new team would inherit (aside from a Hall of Fame-caliber ace): About a third of Scherzer’s $35 million salary to be paid in 2028, when inflation would lower the overall value of that amount. But it would shoulder about a $12 million hit toward the competitive balance tax threshold for 2021, since that is determined by the average annual value of a contract, not what a club owes a player in a specific year. That could deter teams that don’t want to exceed the tax threshold and pay overage fees this year. These terms were first reported by the Athletic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/07/27/nationals-trade-deadline-sell-off-max-scherzer-deal/
Good questions. But obviously Bloom is also considering Duran's potential beyond this year. There could be an eventuality in which Duran is on the team but not starting in the post season, if Arroyo comes back healthy ...Apologies if this shouldn’t be in the trade deadline thread - I think it’s pertinent, because it makes the case for cashing in Duran (for Scherzer - not trading Duran for the sake of it) more credible
Kike is the 5th most valuable defender in the AL, per Fangraphs. He’s behind Myles Straw, Semien, Correa and Chapman. Among all MLB outfielders, he’s third behind JBJ and Straw.
Arroyo doesn’t have enough PA (170) to qualify. Drop the minimum PA threshold, and he’s comfortably positive on defense, placing ninth among second basemen in MLB, in less playing time than all but one of the guys ahead of him. (By the way, prorate Arroyo to about 550 PA, and he’s a four win player this year).
My question is: how much does Duran need to hit to offset downgrading defensively at both 2B and CF, and is that bar a reasonable expectation? He’s probably going to be a good regular for several years. But this year? The kid’s not a butcher, but he’s not a plus defender in the outfield. He’s going to strike out a lot. I don’t think it’s any sure thing that he’s starting in this team’s best lineup.
Anyway, Scherzer is still probably a reach, but if it doesn’t happen, I hope it’s not because we refused to consider moving Duran. Our starting center fielder is under contract for 2022...
I don't know that it happens, but in a scenario where Chaim's able to swing a deal for Starling Marte (with or without Aguilar) Duran may not even make the post season roster.Good questions. But obviously Bloom is also considering Duran's potential beyond this year. There could be an eventuality in which Duran is on the team but not starting in the post season, if Arroyo comes back healthy ...
Right, but there is virtually no history of the Red Sox doing that and it is very rare in baseball. They have ridden out some truly shitty contracts.No, you release him.. unfortunately the Sox care more about his AAV than salary, which is going to work against us here.
Because Hosmer's salary isn't just this year. Taking on $21 Million for next year and $13 Million for three years after that will impact roster construction negatively for the next 4 seasons. We would be right back in the position we were in when we had to trade Mookie. Having too much money committed to older players that would keep us from extending or paying the younger, better players that we have.We can do both. Why would Boston be constrained by the CBT threshold? We reset last year.
Grammar and spelling are both wayyyyy too good for this to be a GammoWhen Putzy McScouty drafted Mitch Moreland in 2007, he said he thought Mitch might have "the best cheekbones of anyone I've ever drafted." From the texts received from Boston, one sense they would like to see him in San Diego for 2+months, especially if a juicy prospect was coming the other way.
In this scenario, we’re acquiring a pre-FA ace or near-ace for well under market rate using a prospect we’re getting by agreeing to pay Hosmer more than his on-field performance is worth. We wouldn't be acquiring Hosmer because we like him especially or think his contract is a good value. He's a first baseman with a .770 career OPS who is paid like he's a first baseman with an .870 career OPS. We'd be acquiring him because the Padres want to give us (say) Luis Campusano (and likely some money) to take him, and we can bundle Campusano with (say) Aldo Ramirez and Cam Cannon to acquire Berríos (or a comparable starter).Because Hosmer's salary isn't just this year. Taking on $21 Million for next year and $13 Million for three years after that will impact roster construction negatively for the next 4 seasons. We would be right back in the position we were in when we had to trade Mookie. Having too much money committed to older players that would keep us from extending or paying the younger, better players that we have.
Next year is the first where $13 Million of Pedroia's dead money is off the books. Why would the Red Sox want to throw another potential corpse onto their roster who costs MORE than that?
That the Sox haven’t done this probably doesn’t indicate a ton with Bloom not having a track record now, but that it happens less frequently across MLB is probably a point towards owners looking at sunk costs a little different than we do (probably since it’s their money). That it took Pujols so long to get released is a good example…Right, but there is virtually no history of the Red Sox doing that and it is very rare in baseball. They have ridden out some truly shitty contracts.
I do think they badly need a cost controlled starter, or blue chipper which was impossible when Bloom started. It's possible they could pull it off now.
Luxury tax impacts ARE baseball reasons in today's MLB economy. (I recognize you're trying to distinguish on-field factors from economics, but they're on equal footing these days)I'm all for Bloom not GFIN for baseball reasons, but tax shouldn't be an issue.
YepIn Chaim I trust.
To add to this if I might, I think many fans forget that a part of that economy is the huge loss of revenue due to co-vid last season as well as the early part of this season.Luxury tax impacts ARE baseball reasons in today's MLB economy. (I recognize you're trying to distinguish on-field factors from economics, but they're on equal footing these days)
Others are made the point about contracts and salaries affecting future years, and that's not something to be taken lightly. A big reason the Red Sox exceeded the tax threshold by so much in 2017-2018-2019 was dead money on the books (Sandoval, Hanley, Pedroia, etc). Sometimes dead money can't be helped (Pedroia's contract was not a bad decision), but adding payroll just because they reset the tax and they have the room, particularly for a modest upgrade to a position that could be dealt with in other ways, is a good way to end up back in luxury tax hell.
Agree. I love Scherzer, and would love to see him pitch for the Red Sox, but the cost in terms of prospects and potential tax ramifications just doesn't make sense for this ball club right now. The potential/hopeful return of a very effective Sale, the hopeful continued emergence of Houck, and the overall quality of the pen, have me more than willing to take our chances with this club has constructed, with the addition of a cost sensible 1b bat, and an arm or two. With the knowledge that depending on the CBA, we could be in strong position to add a bigger external acquisition next year and/or beyond.Any discussion about the luxury tax needs to also acknowledge that nobody can say with certainty what the tax structure will look like after the next CBA is hammered out this winter. It would be risky for a team near the top of the MLB salary heap to add significant payroll right now and certainly a factor that a GM of such a team will be weighing carefully.
YMMV, but after four WS titles in the last two decades, and with the team once again heading in the right direction with a very promising young executive at the helm, I'm OK if Bloom & the Gang decide to pass on a big splash like Scherzer and instead bring in the next Eyechart or Peavy at the deadline and roll the dice with this team largely as constructed. In Chaim I trust.
It may be so that in the total picture acquiring Scherzer doesn't make sense ... Though I do refer to Apisith's post above about how the team is over their pythag. It is an exciting, fun group, but there really could be regression to the mean here (I said the same thing about the 2013 team and it never happened). The "arm or two" you speak may not have to be Scherzer, but I hope is more than Peavy. I think the team needs it. In any case, if you add Sale and say, Berrios (let a man dream), you are also bolstering the bullpen by adding Houck and Pivetta or Perez, and subsequently trimming the weakest links from the roster ...Agree. I love Scherzer, and would love to see him pitch for the Red Sox, but the cost in terms of prospects and potential tax ramifications just doesn't make sense for this ball club right now. The potential/hopeful return of a very effective Sale, the hopeful continued emergence of Houck, and the overall quality of the pen, have me more than willing to take our chances with this club has constructed, with the addition of a cost sensible 1b bat, and an arm or two. With the knowledge that depending on the CBA, we could be in strong position to add a bigger external acquisition next year and/or beyond.
At minimum I think this says Chaim doesn’t have any financial handcuffs.Customary caveats that this is from Jim Bowden:
Bowden: I was also told to keep an eye on the Boston Red Sox re: Scherzer. Apparently the ownership in Boston is really pushing Chaim Bloom to make an aggressive run at Scherzer with the idea that they're going to get Chris Sale back, and combining Sale and Scherzer, the ownership really likes the chances of winning the World Series.
View: https://twitter.com/CBSSportsHQ/status/1420375872708751364
Jared Carrabis was on The Baseball Hour last night with Mazz and Mazz pressed him on what he knew about what the Red Sox were doing as he had posted a set of cryptic tweets. Carrabis on Scherzer said that he went into the deadline thinking they had absolutely no chance at Scherzer because the impression is that Bloom wouldn't give up the prospect capital to do so. But, after talking to sources he said that what he thought going in was not actually the case and that they are definitely in on him and that it may be a possibility. He compared it to asking your parents for something and expecting a no but then getting a maybe.At minimum I think this says Chaim doesn’t have any financial handcuffs.
According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox are taking a broad-ranging approach to their discussions with other teams. They’re open to adding rental players who would be eligible for free agency after this year as well as players who would come with additional seasons of team control. At a time when their projected payroll is approaching the $210 million luxury-tax threshold, the team also hasn’t ruled out taking on salary to go over that mark.
Further evidence of that open-mindedness: According to Jayson Stark of The Athletic, the Red Sox are one of eight teams discussing a trade for Nationals ace Max Scherzer. Even with Chris Sale coming back — Bloom told NESN that it “isn’t out of the question” that the lefthander could return to the big leagues after two more rehab starts — the Sox seem determined to at least explore difference-makers.
At least modest upgrades, starting with bullpen help, seem likely. But an element of unknown possibility hovers over the Sox between now and Friday.
It's Jim Bowden, so I take it with a grain of salt.At minimum I think this says Chaim doesn’t have any financial handcuffs.
Yes, this was unexpected and a nice "problem" to have considering the need to restock the system with good young talent. The issue now is can you GFIN with restraint? What are the parameters with which Bloom will be allowed to work within. $$$? Minor league talent? One, the other or both? It will make a difference. If he can take on $$$, the hit to the farm may not be as bad, if not he's going to have to part with talent.If Fangraphs can be trusted, it looks like Tampa still has the highest rated farm system in MLB, followed by Batimore. Yankees show as #4 and Toronto as #7. (Red Sox #13)
My point is that 2021 could very well be the best window Boston has for advancing deep into the playoffs. Even without those ratings, Tampa and Toronto are 2 teams that should scare everyone in the near future, particularly Toronto.
Circumstances have aligned to make this a GFIN year. They should GFIN.
As usual, communication from the front office is word salad that boils down to "we could do things, and we might."Alex Speier's latest on the deadline
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/27/sports/red-sox-might-look-different-after-fridays-trade-deadline/?event=event25
Yes and yes. A clear eyed view sees this: a supreme core potentially nearing the end of its run maybe after this season and almost certainly after 2022, AND ... not a lot of ML ready blue chip players in the upper minors.If Fangraphs can be trusted, it looks like Tampa still has the highest rated farm system in MLB, followed by Batimore. Yankees show as #4 and Toronto as #7. (Red Sox #13)
My point is that 2021 could very well be the best window Boston has for advancing deep into the playoffs. Even without those ratings, Tampa and Toronto are 2 teams that should scare everyone in the near future, particularly Toronto.
Circumstances have aligned to make this a GFIN year. They should GFIN.
Circumstances are always about a deep system. Is top talent replaceable? For me... Duran is. My opinion from reading and reports is that Jimenez has a higher ceiling as a CF'er.Yes, this was unexpected and a nice "problem" to have considering the need to restock the system with good young talent. The issue now is can you GFIN with restraint? What are the parameters with which Bloom will be allowed to work within. $$$? Minor league talent? One, the other or both? It will make a difference. If he can take on $$$, the hit to the farm may not be as bad, if not he's going to have to part with talent.
nvalvo explained the theory behind a Hosmer deal really well above. I don’t like most scenarios involving Hosmer playing for the Red Sox and I’m cautiously optimistic Franchy is a good 1B solution, but we could afford to absorb his salary if it nets us a significant piece from SD. Assuming the most generous arb figures for Devers, Verdugo, Renfroe, Pivetta and Cordero, we’re still around $100-110M of committed money in 2023, $20M less if X opts out.Because Hosmer's salary isn't just this year. Taking on $21 Million for next year and $13 Million for three years after that will impact roster construction negatively for the next 4 seasons. We would be right back in the position we were in when we had to trade Mookie. Having too much money committed to older players that would keep us from extending or paying the younger, better players that we have.
Next year is the first where $13 Million of Pedroia's dead money is off the books. Why would the Red Sox want to throw another potential corpse onto their roster who costs MORE than that?
Besides Devers, the rest of the core are being paid free agent salaries. We can definitely rebuild via FA if they leave because we’ll have the payroll room to do it, not that it’s what I’m suggesting to do. We’re not in the same position as 2018 when Betts was paid $10m for 10 wins and Benintendi was paid $500k for 5 wins. Then, not only were we already over the limit but we were getting ridiculous production from cost-controlled players. We had to go for it, no matter what.Yes and yes. A clear eyed view sees this: a supreme core potentially nearing the end of its run maybe after this season and almost certainly after 2022, AND ... not a lot of ML ready blue chip players in the upper minors.
Chaim has rebuilt some depth on the farm ... but not many guys ready to step into Bogaerts/Martinez/Sale/Eovaldi roles right away (all those guys plus Erod and Kike and Ottavino and Vazquez might be gone by 2022). So, unless the team wants to rebuild via FA after 2022 and spend spend spend, then the ACTUAL rebuilding years might be 2023/24 rather than now.
Now? They have the second best record in baseball. They have some weaknesses. They have a stellar core at the end of their window. They are relatively healthy (with Sale coming). They are unshackled from LT considerations this season.
All that = GFIN.
And to take the Duran discussion in a different direction if I may for a moment. Even if he's deemed as not being replaceable, I don't necessarily seeing him as having the position locked down for the rest of this year. I have no issue with a guy like Marte coming in, Duran being sent back down if the numbers say he's the odd man out and being called back up in September to do what he can to help down the stretch. SSS for sure, but I've not seen anything yet to say that Duran is the best option if the team is in GFIN mode. ATM, with the deadline two days away, I'm not convinced Duran needs to be on any post season roster.Circumstances are always about a deep system. Is top talent replaceable? For me... Duran is. My opinion from reading and reports is that Jimenez has a higher ceiling as a CF'er.
Nick Yorke can make Jeter Downs expendable. Adding Mayer makes a player like Lugo expendable (he likely already was).... Bloom has built up pitching depth pretty well too.
The only "untouchables" for me are Mayer, Bello, Houck and Casas. I have a Second Tier of guys I really don't want to move but would be okay with if they get utilized in the right deal
Though the FA route - too many of them - risks being burdened with bloated contracts for aging players. I think a wise team picks their spots (you have to have a couple of these) and goes the rest of the way with young players from the farm and value finds ...I suppose that's obvious ....Besides Devers, the rest of the core are being paid free agent salaries. We can definitely rebuild via FA if they leave because we’ll have the payroll room to do it, not that it’s what I’m suggesting to do. We’re not in the same position as 2018 when Betts was paid $10m for 10 wins and Benintendi was paid $500k for 5 wins. Then, not only were we already over the limit but we were getting ridiculous production from cost-controlled players. We had to go for it, no matter what.
In fact, with the Yankees and Dodgers both projected to be at or over the CBT limit next year and the year after, we might be the biggest fish in free agency next winter.