"This too shall pass" ---- righting the ship for 2016

The Gray Eagle · Jul 22, 2015

The Padres reportedly offered more total money to Sandoval than the Red Sox did. Maybe we can explore a buyer's remorse deal of Sandoval for Shields.

Gammons tweeted a couple weeks ago that "the Pads have asked other teams about possible interest in James Shields."

Shields hasn't been great for San Diego, with 20 HRs allowed already, but he has been a good bet to give you 200 IP a year and maybe could offer some stability to the rotation. The Royals considered him a good example and influence on their younger pitchers.

He is old, but if you got him at the start of next year, he'd be on a 3-year $64 million contract ($21 million each for the next 3 seasons, then a $2 million buyout, assuming you don't want him for 2019.

Sampo Gida · Jul 22, 2015

I assume JWH is going to want to get under 189 again, although he may be forced to blow past that if marketing forecasts for 2016 look to be weak.

I think they are Ok in OF. Sink or swim with Hanley, Castillo, JBJ and Betts.   An impact corner OF'er like Justin Upton would be great of course, but unless they can trade Hanley or Castillo or move Hanley to DH I don't see it happening

Obviously, 1B is a huge hole. Need an impact bat there. I don't see Hanley being nimble enough for that position. Not much on the FA market though unless they go for Chris Davis.   Probably need to go the trade route there.

I think SP'er is where most of whats available should be spent on. With Buccholz of uncertain health, and none of the SP prospects other than E-Rod a sure thing, and Miley/Porcello middle/back end of the rotation guys, I think they need at least 2 impact SP'ers if they want to compete.

Cueto, Kazmir, Price, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Gallardo, etc.    Plus whatever may be available on the international market from Japan, Cuba, Korea

Anyways, pick 2 of the above, and sign some depth and BP arms, and wherever that takes them. Anything less than that won't be enough, thats already the miniumum IMO. Must also hope for some positive regression from Pablo, Porcello and Papi and that Castillo can earn his salary and that Pedroia can avoid injuries that land him on the DL or hamper his performance.

johnnywayback · Jul 22, 2015

Here are a few decisions that need to be made before 2016 begins -- and that really should be made before 2015 ends.

1. Can Hanley Ramirez play 1B?
2. Can Jackie Bradley, Jr. hit well enough to play in the major leagues?
3. Out of Clay Buchholz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, Joe Kelly, and Henry Owens, how many are ready and able to be part of the 2016 rotation?

If the answers to those are "yes," "yes," and "at least three," things get a lot simpler. In that scenario:

RF Betts
LF Holt
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Ramirez
SS Bogaerts
3B Sandoval
CF Bradley, Jr.
C Vazquez

Holt, of course, will continue to roam around the field to fill in for whoever's hurt, underperforming, or simply in need of a day off -- so you'll need someone who can play LF regularly while Holt is doing that. Sounds like a job for some combination of Rusney Castillo and Daniel Nava. You'll also need a RHH who can platoon with Ortiz by playing 1B against lefties while Ramirez DHs (man, I wish it was Allen Craig, but if not, it's not an expensive proposition).

Meanwhile, a rotation of Buchholz/Porcello/Miley/Rodriguez/Johnson wouldn't be a strength, but it wouldn't be a particular weakness, either. And if you don't need to invest in shoring up the lineup, you can think about signing a frontline starter or splashing the pot for Sonny Gray or whoever else becomes available in trade. That lets you trade Miley, who should have some value, or gives you some cushion in case Buchholz doesn't come back healthy.

And you can do a better job of constructing the bullpen instead of going into the season relying on the likes of Ogando, Mujica, and Breslow.

I know there's going to be sentiment to "blow it up" simply because the team was so disappointing this year, but a healthy Vazquez, another year of development from Betts and Bogaerts, a decent platoon partner for Ortiz against LHP, better luck with bullpen construction, and, maybe, a frontline starter -- I'd take that to Fort Myers with pleasure.

Of course, it gets a lot harder if Ramirez can't play 1B, or if Mookie Betts is our only reliable outfielder, or if none of the young pitchers are ready (and Buchholz isn't healthy). But if we're smart, we'll have a lot more information about all three before October.

Pilgrim · Jul 22, 2015

They really need to pull back and spend the next year or two retrenching. I dont necessarily think that means they'll be noncompetitive, but so much if this teams fortunes are dependent on whats already on the roster. Its hard to justify going for it next year when so many of the roster spots are veteran question marks.

- Anyone who gets moved this deadline or offseason should be a for a long term part, even if its just a Powerball ticket prospect.

- I wouldn't mind adding one of the premium pitchers, because its a huge weakness for the organization and this is the deepest class for a while. But any money earmarked for free agents should only be considered after they extend Betts and Bogaerts, this offseasons number one priority.

-If a franchise cornerstone a la Donaldson gets put on the block, I'd be all over that and move a bunch of the prospect surplus for one premium player.

-Look into any other "distressed assets" that are youngish and under control. Would Wil Myers be available? Yordano Ventura? Completely pulling those names out of my ass, but that type of player.

Other than that, sit tight and hope either the current nucleus plays better or the prospects come along quickly. Things are bad right now, but there is some genuinely good talent in the organization.

nvalvo · Jul 22, 2015

I've seen rumors connecting the Sox to Byung-Ho Park, a KBO slugging 1B who's put up Bondsian numbers for the Nexen Heroes, the same team that sent Jung Ho Kang to the Pirates. Park has 150 HR in the last 3.5 seasons!

KBO still posts players in the old style. Given our need at 1B, and the mediocre FA market at the position, is there any interest, or can we not afford the uncertainty of an import, even one sporting an 1.100 OPS and hitting bombs at a rate of 50/season?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJlOjdgZF4o

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 22, 2015

There was some discussion of Park in the Napoli thread a couple weeks ago. Basically boiled down to the Korean league being a hitters paradise and his eye-popping numbers being a bit misleading. He's unlikely to put up his "Bondsian" numbers in the States, but could still potentially be a .800-900 OPS type hitter. If the hype machine inevitably takes hold, and given his numbers it will, it's possible he becomes DiceK the 1B even if he puts up respectable numbers.

KillerBs · Jul 22, 2015

We should sign him for 7/70 and have him battle for ABs with Craig at Pawtucket.

Pilgrim · Jul 22, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
There was some discussion of Park in the Napoli thread a couple weeks ago. Basically boiled down to the Korean league being a hitters paradise and his eye-popping numbers being a bit misleading. He's unlikely to put up his "Bondsian" numbers in the States, but could still potentially be a .800-900 OPS type hitter. If the hype machine inevitably takes hold, and given his numbers it will, it's possible he becomes DiceK the 1B even if he puts up respectable numbers.

Kang signed for 11 Million total, and hasn't been that great, so we are a ways away from any huge prices or hype with these guys I think. I'm somewhat interested.

Rasputin · Jul 22, 2015

The Red Sox should be trying to win the World Series in 2016.

Trying to get Hanley Ramirez to play first in mid season would probably be a horrific mistake.

We need to get Johnson, Barnes, and Owens as many major league innings as possible.

We need to get Castillo, JBJ, and Swihart as many ABs as possible.

We need to convince David Ortiz to platoon at DH to get his bar and Ramirez' glove out of the game against lefties.

We need to convince Ramirez that billing up wasn't the best way to prepare for outfield play and that he should be taking a gazillion fly balls av day in a replica Fenway all off season.

We need to consider turning Blake Swihart to a first baseman.

We need to consider moving Barnes, Owens, and Kelly to the bullpen permanently.

Jack Rabbit Slim · Jul 22, 2015

Pilgrim said:
Kang signed for 11 Million total, and hasn't been that great, so we are a ways away from any huge prices or hype with these guys I think. I'm somewhat interested.

While I agree about the likely cost of Korean players still being relatively low, I am confused about the highlighted bit. Kang has put up a 773 OPS between SS and 3B for very little money. That seems to me to be a lot better than "not that great". I haven't seen him play defense but a quick perusal of his defensive stats don't scream butcher.

Obviously not all players transition equally, but I would absolutely be interested in Park up to $10M per based on Kang's transition. If the scouts don't see any easily exploitable habits, it wouldn't be unreasonable to project a 800+ OPS from him.

jscola85 · Jul 22, 2015

How many more of these starts by Kelly can the FO witness before they realize he has no business starting? No command of his pitches. Doesn't matter if you throw 98 if you keep grooving pitches down the middle of the plate. Just bite the bullet and put him in the bullpen and see if you have a Wade Davis / Luke Hochevar on your hands.

Rasputin · Jul 22, 2015

I'd like to see Ramirez at first, iv just don't buy it. I don't see a guy with the agility to react to bad throws. I do see a guy who has gotten better in left and I think if he made a concerted effort to get better, he'd be OK.

Pilgrim · Jul 22, 2015

If Swihart ever hits enough to hold down 1b I'd be ecstatic... And play him at catcher because that's a seriously high bar.

mauf · Jul 22, 2015

Releasing Napoli would open up 1B for Hanley, and an OF spot for Castillo (or JBJ, if you prefer). Might as well use the next two months to figure out if you have internal options at those two positions.

It isn't a complete rebuilding solution, but it's a step in the right direction that wouldn't be seen as a white-flag move.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 22, 2015

maufman said:
Releasing Napoli would open up 1B for Hanley, and an OF spot for Castillo (or JBJ, if you prefer). Might as well use the next two months to figure out if you have internal options at those two positions.

It isn't a complete rebuilding solution, but it's a step in the right direction that wouldn't be seen as a white-flag move.

I think this is the way to go, but I'd also move on from Victorino, opening up OF spots for both Castillo and JBJ.

Pilgrim · Jul 22, 2015

JBJ is just killing triple A right now. His strikeouts are down too.

Maybe he's the incredibly unique elite defensive player who can only crush mediocre pitching, but is worthless, but I really hope he plays every day after the deadline.

P'tucket rhymes with... · Jul 22, 2015

Rasputin said:
The Red Sox should be trying to win the World Series in 2016.

I'd much rather they spend the rest of the season evaluating the talent on hand, dispassionately appraise the available players during the off-season, and put together the best team they can based on that data. If they can realistically contend for the WS in 2016, that would be great, but if not, so be it. Pressing the issue only leads to stupid-ass decisions like signing an overhyped, overweight 3B to moronic contracts.

dcmissle · Jul 22, 2015

P said:
I'd much rather they spend the rest of the season evaluating the talent on hand, dispassionately appraise the available players during the off-season, and put together the best team they can based on that data. If they can realistically contend for the WS in 2016, that would be great, but if not, so be it. Pressing the issue only leads to stupid-ass decisions like signing an overhyped, overweight 3B to moronic contracts.

+ 1. Ras speaks wisely. The best course when you don't know what the hell you are doing is to do as little as possible.

I suspect they are not close to a root cause analysis of what's happened the last year. I am not yelling "off with their heads" because I have no reason to believe that the new heads would be any better than the old. I don't trust the current crew on big deals, and I don't believe in selling low -- paying teams to take apparent mistakes you have committed a bundle to

We supposedly have the best farm in MLB -- use it. And be patient.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 22, 2015

Rasputin said:
I'd like to see Ramirez at first, iv just don't buy it. I don't see a guy with the agility to react to bad throws. I do see a guy who has gotten better in left and I think if he made a concerted effort to get better, he'd be OK.

I basically agree, although I think if Ramirez is willing to move yet again, the Sox should make this decision for 2016 based on who else is available. I suspect it will be easier to find a LF than a 1B, and in that case moving Hanley to first might be the best option. I think defensively he's going to suck anywhere. Sucking at first has more ramifications than sucking in left, and I'm particularly concerned about how a defensively sucky first baseman may impact the value of a young, improving SS and an apparently declining 3B. But if the best player the Sox can find is an outfielder, they may just have to bite that bullet.

Max Power · Jul 22, 2015

What exactly has Rusney Castillo done to deserve a spot on the 25 man roster? He's not hitting particularly well in AAA and averaged one stupid mistake per game when he was last in the majors. If there are trades or injuries that open up a spot for him, then bring him up, but I'd rather watch Victorino play out the string than see him released to make playing time for a guy who's worse in every facet of the game.

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 22, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
I basically agree, although I think if Ramirez is willing to move yet again, the Sox should make this decision for 2016 based on who else is available. I suspect it will be easier to find a LF than a 1B, and in that case moving Hanley to first might be the best option. I think defensively he's going to suck anywhere. Sucking at first has more ramifications than sucking in left, and I'm particularly concerned about how a defensively sucky first baseman may impact the value of a young, improving SS and an apparently declining 3B. But if the best player the Sox can find is an outfielder, they may just have to bite that bullet.

I think your first sentence is the most important thing. If he is open to it, sure, do it. Sign or promote an OF and move on. I want nothing to do with a malcontent $22M a year player.

Mighty Joe Young · Jul 22, 2015

Max Power said:
What exactly has Rusney Castillo done to deserve a spot on the 25 man roster? He's not hitting particularly well in AAA and averaged one stupid mistake per game when he was last in the majors. If there are trades or injuries that open up a spot for him, then bring him up, but I'd rather watch Victorino play out the string than see him released to make playing time for a guy who's worse in every facet of the game.

Because Castillo has a six ? year contract and is 27. They signed him to be a MLB player and not languish in AAA. In other words, the talent evaluators made the decision that he would project as a MLB ready player and not a project or prospect needing development.

Unless his development will be better served in Pawtucket he should be up with Boston. They will learn a hell of a lot more about Castillo's future (if any) by playing him in Boston than wasting ABs on the likes of Victorino or Nava or De Aza.

Papo The Snow Tiger · Jul 22, 2015

The thing that really sucks this year is seeing the some old shitty play from the same old guys every night. I'm 100% on board with jettisoning the guys who won't be around next year and giving a full shot to JBJ, Rusney, Barnes et al. Even if the Sox continue to lose a lot, at least we'll know if the young guys can play or not.

Rasputin · Jul 22, 2015

P'tucket said:
I'd much rather they spend the rest of the season evaluating the talent on hand, dispassionately appraise the available players during the off-season, and put together the best team they can based on that data.

I think if they do that, they will end up with a team that can contend. I think it begins with a trade for Hamels.

Actually contending is going to require that Porcello not suck.

Hamels, Porcello, half a season of Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Johnson.

dcmissle said:
+ 1. Ras speaks wisely.

I've been saying this. Nobody listens.

We supposedly have the best farm in MLB -- use it. And be patient.

One of the best, and in 2016 we're going to have a CF, SS, two catchers, and one starting pitcher from that system. And that's not counting the bullpen where Taz and Layne will probably still be around.

And there's a good chance there's more.

Savin Hillbilly said:
I basically agree, although I think if Ramirez is willing to move yet again, the Sox should make this decision for 2016 based on who else is available. I suspect it will be easier to find a LF than a 1B, and in that case moving Hanley to first might be the best option. I think defensively he's going to suck anywhere. Sucking at first has more ramifications than sucking in left, and I'm particularly concerned about how a defensively sucky first baseman may impact the value of a young, improving SS and an apparently declining 3B. But if the best player the Sox can find is an outfielder, they may just have to bite that bullet.

In a perfect world, Ramirez takes to first like I don't even know what and both JBJ and Castillo look great the rest of the season.

I don't think we can get that lucky.

I think we're going to need to trade for a first baseman. Or who knows, maybe Ortiz retires at the end of the season, we slide Ramirez to DH.

I think my sleeping pill just kicked in.

LostinNJ · Jul 23, 2015

Let's work backwards.

For 2018, the Red Sox already have the following:

Outfield: Betts, Bradley, Castillo, Margot, Benintendi. That's a strong group -- no need to add anything there.

Infield: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Moncada, Guerra, Travis (Sam, not Shaw). Another strong group, though maybe lacking a championship quality first baseman.

Catcher: Vazquez, Swihart. No need to look for a catcher.

DH: Ramirez. Good.

SP: Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens, Kopech, maybe Ball. A solid core, but there's no sign of an ace in this group.

RP: Who knows?

Comic relief: Sandoval.

The great, glaring need is for a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. They need a first baseman for the short run, but between Devers, Moncada, and Travis, they should be able to cover both infield corners in the long run.

They have the makings of a strong core of players that could be extremely competitive for quite a while. Sure, not all of these heralded prospects will pan out, but they have a surplus in every area. And because it's a young group, it won't cost much. That means the team can spend a ton to get an ace for the top of the rotation, and still stay under whatever the cap will be under the new collective bargaining agreement. So the right play now is not to trade any of these assets for Hamels, but to go all out this winter to sign the best available starter. Forget about bargain-hunting, and forget about whether the guy will be worth his salary in the last years of the contract. You've got this tremendous window of opportunity -- you have to go for it.

benhogan · Jul 23, 2015

Rasputin said:
The Red Sox should be trying to win the World Series in 2016.

We need to consider turning Blake Swihart to a first baseman.

World Series in 2016? pipe dream... I see a bunch of better teams in the AL East to climb over to start talking World Series for the next few seasons.

What season in the minors or majors makes you think Blake's bat plays at first base in the Majors? This is just plain stupid, which leads me to believe the front office may be considering this move.

Rasputin · Jul 23, 2015

benhogan said:
World Series in 2016? pipe dream... I see a bunch of better teams in the AL East to climb over to start talking World Series for the next few seasons.

What season in the minors or majors makes you think Blake's bat plays at first base in the Majors? This is just plain stupid, which leads me to believe the front office may be considering this move.

Yes, World Series 2016. It always surprises me when people who watched 2013 learned nothing from the experience.

As for Blake Swihart, you're aware, of course, that people have been talking about him moving to first or third for years, right?

And a bit of the scouting report from soxprospects.com

Hit: Switch hitter with fluid, line-drive stroke from both sides. Plus bat speed and bat control through the zone with loud, consistent contact. Uses whole field. Solid pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, and understanding of the strike zone. Future plus hit tool (.275-.285 average) with average-to-above-average on-base percentage. Battles. Doesn’t use batting gloves.

Power: Strong for his size. More to come as he physically matures. More present power from the right side. Squares balls up with consistency. Doesn’t sell out for power. However, plus bat speed, raw strength and hand-eye coordination to square balls up consistently will translate to future average power potential (15-20 home runs).

jscola85 · Jul 23, 2015

There's zero rational defense to propose moving Swihart to 1B right now. You'd only do that if you think he cannot stick at catcher, which is a bit silly given how well he is doing in the majors right now. In fact, I'd say his defense is ahead of his bat at the moment.

Orel Miraculous · Jul 23, 2015

Jack Rabbit Slim said:
While I agree about the likely cost of Korean players still being relatively low, I am confused about the highlighted bit. Kang has put up a 773 OPS between SS and 3B for very little money. That seems to me to be a lot better than "not that great". I haven't seen him play defense but a quick perusal of his defensive stats don't scream butcher.

Obviously not all players transition equally, but I would absolutely be interested in Park up to $10M per based on Kang's transition. If the scouts don't see any easily exploitable habits, it wouldn't be unreasonable to project a 800+ OPS from him.

Not to mention the fact that he's currently riding a 12 game hit streak. Sure, the power hasn't quite come around, but Kang's managed to hit .286/.365/.412 despite not having a starting job at the beginning of the season and being shuffled around the diamond and lineup ever since. Frankly, I think he's a strong bet to make an all-star type leap next season and I would have loved to see him playing third instead of Panda.

Given the success he and Ryu have had, is it possible that Korean pros are currently undervalued? I'd love to see the Sox take a flyer on Park and find out.

Tyrone Biggums · Jul 23, 2015

Rasputin said:
The Red Sox should be trying to win the World Series in 2016.

Trying to get Hanley Ramirez to play first in mid season would probably be a horrific mistake.

We need to get Johnson, Barnes, and Owens as many major league innings as possible.

We need to get Castillo, JBJ, and Swihart as many ABs as possible.

We need to convince David Ortiz to platoon at DH to get his bar and Ramirez' glove out of the game against lefties.

We need to convince Ramirez that billing up wasn't the best way to prepare for outfield play and that he should be taking a gazillion fly balls av day in a replica Fenway all off season.

We need to consider turning Blake Swihart to a first baseman.

We need to consider moving Barnes, Owens, and Kelly to the bullpen permanently.

I agree the Sox should be going for the World Series next year.

Putting Hanley at 1st mid season would probably not go over well. Although common logic dictates that if you can play 3rd then generally 1st isn't nearly as hard. So I don't feel it would be any more horrific than the current production from the position. Here is a scenario.

Napoli gets traded to lets say Pittsburgh for a decent lottery ticket. Then they decide to throw Hanley over to 1B. Now as a result they call up JBJ. In a subsequent move, the Sox also move Victorino to another team for a lottery ticket. Now you bring up Castillo. Move him and JBJ between RF and LF and then you have a gold glove outfield. So that is set for the near future. If you move Hanley to 1B until Ortiz retires then the defense actually improves due to the outfield upgrade. So while it probably wouldn't go over well with Hanley, It's not going to be nearly as bad as Valentines bright idea to use Gonzalez in Right Field.

If you want to try and win the World Series in 2016 then Ortiz doesn't sit on the bench.

Swihart should probably be the starting catcher on opening day. Vazquez will probably see Pawtucket for at least the first month to get game reps in. I like Swihart's package behind the plate much better all things being equal. When people talked about him moving off the position it was to second base due to the inability to project how he would handle being a catcher. Those whispers were around when he was drafted, much like the ones about Xander moving off SS were around when he was in Single A. Things change as players develop.

Agree that Kelly is probably a reliever at this point. I don't think hes efficient enough to close but who knows. I don't understand why you feel Henry Owens should be in the pen on a permanent basis. Barnes should get another crack at starting.

I would like to add that this coaching staff needs a huge over haul. John Farrell is not the guy to lead a young team.

fineyoungarm · Jul 23, 2015

P'tucket said:
I'd much rather they spend the rest of the season evaluating the talent on hand, dispassionately appraise the available players during the off-season, and put together the best team they can based on that data. If they can realistically contend for the WS in 2016, that would be great, but if not, so be it. Pressing the issue only leads to stupid-ass decisions like signing an overhyped, overweight 3B to moronic contracts.

This. Although I simply do not see how a team with this little pitching can become a contender over one off season.

I think the most interesting word in most of the posts in this thread is "they". As in '"they should do this and they should do that". Unfortunately the root cause problem of the Boston Red Sox is the "they", who under the current regime would be doing this work.

They have established their incompetence. I do not trust them (they) to evaluate much of anything - especially pitching. I fear that this too is not going to pass until they are gone. Whether Cherington's performance would improve with better advisors, I do not know. I have the patience to find out, but that probably is (and maybe should be) a minority position.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 23, 2015

fineyoungarm said:
This. Although I simply do not see how a team with this little pitching can become a contender over one off season.

I think the most interesting word in most of the posts in this thread is "they". As in '"they should do this and they should do that". Unfortunately the root cause problem of the Boston Red Sox is the "they", who under the current regime would be doing this work.

They have established their incompetence. I do not trust them (they) to evaluate much of anything - especially pitching. I fear that this too is not going to pass until they are gone. Whether Cherington's performance would improve with better advisors, I do not know. I have the patience to find out, but that probably is (and maybe should be) a minority position.

Similar things could have been said about the 2013 team.

Consider that at the end of July 2012 (to further draw the comparison to now), the starter with the lowest ERA on the staff was Doubront at 4.37. Lester was sporting a 5.50 ERA, Buchholz's ERA was just under 5 (and had been over 6 for parts of the first half), Beckett was at 4.5, Lackey was out with TJS, and the bullpen was "anchored" by closer Alfredo Aceves. If you'd said then that the 2013 team could contend for a WS title, people might have said then that they didn't have the pitching to make a significant turn around.

That's not to say that the 2016 team is going to experience the same recovery/resurgence, but there is certainly talent on the roster that is currently under-performing (or injured), and the potential for significant improvement without adding a whole lot is there.

OCD SS · Jul 23, 2015

Tyrone Biggums said:
Putting Hanley at 1st mid season would probably not go over well. Although common logic dictates that if you can play 3rd then generally 1st isn't nearly as hard. So I don't feel it would be any more horrific than the current production from the position. Here is a scenario.

Replace "1B" with "LF" and you get exactly the same rationale that put Hanley in front of the monster. If you want him to not suck at a new position the thing to do is leave him at that position to get some reps and experience. Constantly jerking him around is not the answer.

I think he's better in the OF: it sounds like he's getting a bit better out there, and will have an offseason to get his body to match the position he's actually going to play. Furthermore I think he's more likely to stay on the field playing the OF than the IF, and Fenway seems like it will do a bit to hide a bad LFer and expose a 1Bman with poor range as balls get by him and out to roll around in a big RF (to say nothing of his ability to adjust to bad throws from the rest of the infeilders).

Castillo looks like an expensive 4th OF, so the only question is which of JBJ and Mookie plays CF and which plays RF (assuming a trade isn't in the offing; if the Sox go after Hammels, I assume JBJ goes in that deal).

OCD SS · Jul 23, 2015

Also, anyone suggesting that Panda is going anywhere should also name a replacement.

fineyoungarm · Jul 23, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Similar things could have been said about the 2013 team.

Consider that at the end of July 2012 (to further draw the comparison to now), the starter with the lowest ERA on the staff was Doubront at 4.37. Lester was sporting a 5.50 ERA, Buchholz's ERA was just under 5 (and had been over 6 for parts of the first half), Beckett was at 4.5, Lackey was out with TJS, and the bullpen was "anchored" by closer Alfredo Aceves. If you'd said then that the 2013 team could contend for a WS title, people might have said then that they didn't have the pitching to make a significant turn around.

That's not to say that the 2016 team is going to experience the same recovery/resurgence, but there is certainly talent on the roster that is currently under-performing (or injured), and the potential for significant improvement without adding a whole lot is there.

As usual your facts are correct. And I do think the current team does have core talent on which to build - especially up the middle (the importance of that should not be underestimated.)

However, 2013 seems to be such an outlier to me. The marathon tragedy mattered somehow to the teams performance or over performance. It is impossible to quantify (and merely discussing it is troubling, so I'll leave it at that.)

In any event, I have little faith in the FO - based on 3 awful seasons, combined with what I see as one of catching lightning in a bottle. If you were to ask me "OK, who do you suggest at replacements?", I would have to answer "Give me a few weeks to get back to you on that one". I would hope, however, that there is somebody out there that can evaluate pro-level talent than the current crew.

Super Nomario · Jul 23, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Similar things could have been said about the 2013 team.

Consider that at the end of July 2012 (to further draw the comparison to now), the starter with the lowest ERA on the staff was Doubront at 4.37. Lester was sporting a 5.50 ERA, Buchholz's ERA was just under 5 (and had been over 6 for parts of the first half), Beckett was at 4.5, Lackey was out with TJS, and the bullpen was "anchored" by closer Alfredo Aceves. If you'd said then that the 2013 team could contend for a WS title, people might have said then that they didn't have the pitching to make a significant turn around.

That 2013 didn't really have great pitching - they bounced back from poor to a little above average. I think that's possible for these guys.

Red(s)HawksFan said:
That's not to say that the 2016 team is going to experience the same recovery/resurgence, but there is certainly talent on the roster that is currently under-performing (or injured), and the potential for significant improvement without adding a whole lot is there.

The problem is I don't see the kind of core offensive talent the 2012-3 squad had. Ortiz was still a dominant middle-of-the-order bat (1.026 OPS in 2012; .959 in 2013). Pedroia was closer to his prime. Ellsbury was a big force at the top of the lineup. The 2013 team was by far the best offense in baseball. Even if we fill the holes at C, 1B, RF, we'll also likely need an MVP-type season from Bogaerts or Betts. I wouldn't rule that out, but it seems like a stretch for 2016. A bounce back to a pretty good offense that gets us in the 85-win range seems plausible given some luck and smart moves in the offseason.

JBJ_HOF · Jul 23, 2015

jscola85 said:
There's zero rational defense to propose moving Swihart to 1B right now. You'd only do that if you think he cannot stick at catcher, which is a bit silly given how well he is doing in the majors right now. In fact, I'd say his defense is ahead of his bat at the moment.

What should be done is Poseying him. Swihart 100 G C, 50 G 1B. Vazquez 60 G C. Lind 110 G 1B.

SouthernBoSox · Jul 23, 2015

Rudy Pemberton said:
You've also got to look at the underlying talent level of the personnel. Lester, Lackey, and Buchholz were coming off lousy '12 seasons (or in Lackey's case, no season at all), but they also sported career ERA+ of 121, 108, and 110- with peak seasons far better than that, so the potential was there at least.

Next year's team, without any changes, would likely have a rotation fronted by Porcello, Miley, and Rodridguez- with career ERA+ of 94, 101, and 86.

This year's pitching staff, with the exception of Buchholz whose future is in doubt anyways, is pitching poorly but they don't exactly have great track records.

Are you being serious right now? Or are just messing with us? Because posting a 22 year old's ERA+ based on 10 starts as a foundation for any argument is so ridiculous I'm almost forced to believe you aren't being serious.

Al Zarilla · Jul 23, 2015

JBJ_HOF said:
What should be done is Poseying him. Swihart 100 G C, 50 G 1B. Vazquez 60 G C. Lind 110 G 1B.

Posey is a generational player whose noggin the Giants want to save from getting belted by too many foul tips, they want to save his legs, etc., so they started playing him at 1B as early as his second year. Swihart hasn't earned this treatment. Of course, if Vaz comes back strong and they want to play both as much as possible, and Swihart's hitting warrants playing him at 1B, fine, get Swihart a first baseman's mitt

FanSinceBoggs · Jul 23, 2015

Fenway seems like it will do a bit to hide a bad LFer and expose a 1Bman with poor range as balls get by him and out to roll around in a big RF

As a former SS, Hanley is a better fit at 1b and should be able to field ground balls without a problem. In fact, he might even excel at fielding ground balls relative to most other first basemen. The more complicated question is whether Hanley can catch balls thrown in the dirt. The Red Sox should move Hanley to 1B ASAP to get a feel for that.

Hanley may never adjust to LF as he may never get adequate reads on fly balls. 1b is a better position for him. If he doesn’t want to play 1b, the Red Sox must meet with him and explain why the move makes sense.

Of course, there is a good chance that Hanley can't play either position well. If that is the case, the Red Sox are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

johnnywayback · Jul 23, 2015

I think people are underrating Christian Vazquez. And I definitely think they're overrating Blake Swihart. His bat is only a weapon if and because it belongs to a solid defensive catcher.

Toe Nash · Jul 23, 2015

Rasputin said:
Yes, World Series 2016. It always surprises me when people who watched 2013 learned nothing from the experience.

OK, so, they're going to:
-Sign or find a 6-win contributor for less than $40m guaranteed (Who? Castillo?)
-Get 6 wins from a middle infielder (Sure, maybe Xander could do that)
-Get another 6 from another OF (Maybe Betts...we're starting to get into wishcasting though)
-Have average or better performance at every other position but one, and even that guy not be horrible (WMB had an 87 OPS+)
-Get 250 PA of a near-.900 OPS from a career bench guy
-Get key performances from the rest of your bench
-Have your backup backup closer turn in one of the best seasons of all time after the guys in front of him get hurt
-I could go on

I don't understand how someone who watched 2013 doesn't realize how nearly everything went right that year and how unlikely all that was.

dynomite · Jul 23, 2015

Rasputin said:
I'd like to see Ramirez at first, iv just don't buy it. I don't see a guy with the agility to react to bad throws. I do see a guy who has gotten better in left and I think if he made a concerted effort to get better, he'd be OK.

I think this is probably true, but given the roster construction Hanley at 1B makes so much sense.

If you put Hanley at 1B, you've got 2 OF spots open for Holt, Castillo, JBJ, and maybe even Nava.

If you keep Hanley in LF, you not only don't have room for all of those guys, but you also need to find someone else to play 1B.

I agree with you in the abstract, but in practice I think moving Hanley to 1B is be most effective use of resources.

Rasputin · Jul 23, 2015

Toe Nash said:
OK, so, they're going to:
-Sign or find a 6-win contributor for less than $40m guaranteed (Who? Castillo?)
-Get 6 wins from a middle infielder (Sure, maybe Xander could do that)
-Get another 6 from another OF (Maybe Betts...we're starting to get into wishcasting though)
-Have average or better performance at every other position but one, and even that guy not be horrible (WMB had an 87 OPS+)
-Get 250 PA of a near-.900 OPS from a career bench guy
-Get key performances from the rest of your bench
-Have your backup backup closer turn in one of the best seasons of all time after the guys in front of him get hurt
-I could go on

I don't understand how someone who watched 2013 doesn't realize how nearly everything went right that year and how unlikely all that was.

If you think "get lucky" is the lesson to be learned from 2013 then you're a moron. Getting lucky is not something that is reproduceable and is therefore not a lesson to be learned.

Have average or better performance at every other position but one, and even that guy not be horrible

This is reproduceable. This is the lesson. It's not easy to do, of course, and sometimes players that should be decent fall off a cliff for reasons that aren't necessarily predictable.

P'tucket rhymes with... · Jul 23, 2015

Rasputin said:
If you think "get lucky" is the lesson to be learned from 2013 then you're a moron. Getting lucky is not something that is reproduceable and is therefore not a lesson to be learned.

This is reproduceable. This is the lesson. It's not easy to do, of course, and sometimes players that should be decent fall off a cliff for reasons that aren't necessarily predictable.

I don't think he's saying that "get lucky" is the lesson to be learned, just that they "got lucky." The WS championship is entirely legitimate, of course, although the team's performances during the season before and two seasons since suggest that they were indeed lucky, more so than any team typically needs to be to get the ring.

nvalvo · Jul 23, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
There was some discussion of Park in the Napoli thread a couple weeks ago. Basically boiled down to the Korean league being a hitters paradise and his eye-popping numbers being a bit misleading. He's unlikely to put up his "Bondsian" numbers in the States, but could still potentially be a .800-900 OPS type hitter. If the hype machine inevitably takes hold, and given his numbers it will, it's possible he becomes DiceK the 1B even if he puts up respectable numbers.

I hope I didn't give the impression that I thought KBO numbers would come across intact. But given the options we have at 1B, he just has to outperform Travis Shaw or Chris Davis.

I think a .900 OPS is way too optimistic insofar as there are only 14 players in the majors right now who match that mark, but an .800 OPS out of 1B looks pretty good next to Napoli's .650. He doesn't need to be Miggy Cabrera to be worth bringing over.

Jack Rabbit Slim said:
While I agree about the likely cost of Korean players still being relatively low, I am confused about the highlighted bit. Kang has put up a 773 OPS between SS and 3B for very little money. That seems to me to be a lot better than "not that great". I haven't seen him play defense but a quick perusal of his defensive stats don't scream butcher.

Obviously not all players transition equally, but I would absolutely be interested in Park up to $10M per based on Kang's transition. If the scouts don't see any easily exploitable habits, it wouldn't be unreasonable to project a 800+ OPS from him.

The worry about Kang was that he wasn't really a shortstop, and his small sample UZR numbers back that up. But he's played a respectable 3b, and hit plenty well for a corner IF. I think Kang's success will earn Park a bit more money, but not a ton more. I'm imagining that he can be had for, I don't know, a $20m posting fee and a 3/$24m deal. It's always hard to gauge the market in these cases, though.

He swings and misses a lot, but appears to have the legitimate power to make that Mark Reynolds/Michael Morse-type profile stand up as a worthwhile player.

chrisfont9 · Jul 23, 2015

LostinNJ said:
Let's work backwards.

For 2018, the Red Sox already have the following:

Outfield: Betts, Bradley, Castillo, Margot, Benintendi. That's a strong group -- no need to add anything there.

Infield: Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Moncada, Guerra, Travis (Sam, not Shaw). Another strong group, though maybe lacking a championship quality first baseman.

Catcher: Vazquez, Swihart. No need to look for a catcher.

DH: Ramirez. Good.

SP: Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens, Kopech, maybe Ball. A solid core, but there's no sign of an ace in this group.

RP: Who knows?

Comic relief: Sandoval.

The great, glaring need is for a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. They need a first baseman for the short run, but between Devers, Moncada, and Travis, they should be able to cover both infield corners in the long run.

They have the makings of a strong core of players that could be extremely competitive for quite a while. Sure, not all of these heralded prospects will pan out, but they have a surplus in every area. And because it's a young group, it won't cost much. That means the team can spend a ton to get an ace for the top of the rotation, and still stay under whatever the cap will be under the new collective bargaining agreement. So the right play now is not to trade any of these assets for Hamels, but to go all out this winter to sign the best available starter. Forget about bargain-hunting, and forget about whether the guy will be worth his salary in the last years of the contract. You've got this tremendous window of opportunity -- you have to go for it.

Enjoyable. I think you should add the fact that they could probably haul in a 2018 starter from the draft, given where they'll slot. I don't know if there is a college pitcher worthy, who could then be up in two years, but that's hardly uncommon now.

nothumb · Jul 23, 2015

I think when you look at the existing assets for OF vs. the existing assets for 1B, it swings me towards taking a gamble on trying Hanley at 1B. There are lots of power hitters who have adapted to the 1B/OF shuffle later in their careers, and it's really not an unreasonable thing to ask of him. There's an argument in his own self-interest as well - 1B is going to be less physically demanding than OF over his twilight years and he's more likely to maintain his bat and get another good contract or two. At worst you've disrupted your shitty-fielding LF's defensive development for one year, since he's virtually guaranteed to take over DH in 2017. It's not like moving a prospect off a high value position when you're banking on getting half a decade or more of premium defense from him.

"This too shall pass" ---- righting the ship for 2016

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