This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

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cornwalls@6

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All you need to know is he thought hiring Matt Patricia was a smart move. Lots of Mac Jones problems are self inflicted, but the orginization did him absolutely no favors. None. If they did not take a flyer on Brady in the draft, would he still be here?
Did he really think it was a smart move? I think it was more a case of not having any great external options available at the time McDaniels took the Raider job, and not having a successor on staff. So, he took a gamble and tried Patricia. It failed pretty badly of course, and the quickness with which he abandoned it, and hired Billy O as soon as he was available, suggests to me he always realized it could very well just be a stop gap.
 

nattysez

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Barmore isn't a draft hit?

This dude is playing near All-Pro level.

Bentley? Stevenson? Marcus Jones?

Not saying the record is amazing, though I think this year's will be pretty damned good when all is said and through, but it's more than 2 hits in 5 years.
For better or worse, Barnwell focuses on the first two three rounds, so no Stevenson or Bentley. He specifically discusses Marcus Jones and Barmore in the piece.
 
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BaseballJones

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And Barnwell says that Jennings was a miss. Well...if you look at him in one way, yes, but the guy has been good this year for the Pats. He calls Barmore a "work in progress" and doesn't consider him to be a hit. Dude has been solid his whole career and has become an absolute beast this year. He's the definition of a hit.
 

E5 Yaz

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And Barnwell says that Jennings was a miss. Well...if you look at him in one way, yes, but the guy has been good this year for the Pats. He calls Barmore a "work in progress" and doesn't consider him to be a hit. Dude has been solid his whole career and has become an absolute beast this year. He's the definition of a hit.
This is what he says about Barmore: "Barmore has been better in Year 3 after injuries slowed him in 2022."
 

BaseballJones

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This is what he says about Barmore: "Barmore has been better in Year 3 after injuries slowed him in 2022."
He should have said, "Barmore has been solid but exploded into stardom this year, becoming one of the best defensive tackles in the game in 2023."
 

heavyde050

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Definitely an interesting article. It is also seems well thought out. The only issue is says the Pats should start Mac the rest of the way b/c Zappe has been even worse. That could lead to a long last two months. On the bright side, the article does point out that no way the Pats can go into 2024 with just Mac/Zappe again.
 

67YAZ

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I wonder if a Fields for Mac swap might make sense in the offseason.
Very doutful from the Bears side. If they land a top-2 spot with their own or Carolina's, they're taking Williams or Maye. They'll then try to move Fields for some kind of draft compensation.

If they land outside the top-2, they'll try to move up into those slots. Worst case, the Bears add some top-end talent for their rebuild while exploring other avenues for a starting QB.

Not sure why they'd take on Mac when Bagent looks like an inexpensive, serviceable back up. If anything, the Bears might want to add an old grizzled veteran to that room to provide some mentoring.

And Fields doesn't solve much for the Pats. He doesn't have NFL-caliber accuracy and has yet to develop good pocket awareness. He might be an interesting project for a coaching staff that think he an be rebuilt, but that's not the Pats.
 

Strike4

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I wonder if maybe Bill is the kind of coach that can make a good team very good and a very good team great, but has the opposite problem with an average team -- his methods make them worse.

To me, maximizing the potential of a good or great team is the single most difficult thing for coaches to do in the NFL. Far too often, we see them fuck up. Belichick's entire M.O. seems to maximize greatness. Getting the last few percent to help will his teams across the finish line.

I used to teach SAT prep. (At the time, the scale was 0 to 800.) For the kids who came in testing around 750-760, the idea was to try to get them another 10 or 20 points. For the kids who came in testing at 400, you could get them to 550 or even higher. The thing was that the company very much segregated the teachers -- some of us were there for the 750s and some for the 400s, and you never tried to do both, because they were extremely different skills. I think the things that makes Bill able to get 770 out of the 750s is counterproductive for the 400s. Negative, even. If that makes sense.

I have many thoughts about why I think this about Bill, but it really doesn't matter. The issue for me, when talking about getting rid of Bill, is that I think he does well the very hardest thing to do in NFL coaching. But, unfortunately, he just doesn't have a team that allows him to do that thing. So, it would feel really tough to get rid of him, because I know that he can coach up good/great. And the value to that is difficult to measure and wins championships. The problem is that he may not be the right guy to get back to good/great, and that sucks.
It's an interesting point, especially with regard to the BB benching stuff that Barnwell touches on (and has tracked over the years). Like yeah maybe benching a guy for a quarter works if they are a 750, but if they are 400's then they probably have no idea what's going on and punishing them for that does not make sense.
 

BigJimEd

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How many players have produced for Belichick and gone elsewhere and do little to nothing? I'd say there is probably more evidence that Belichick can coach up a low level player than not. I'd also say that the past few years he has coached up average to below average teams. Not happening this year for whatever reason but one season doesn't make a trend.


Also are we insinuating that Jackson and Jones don't understand why they were benched?
 

Garshaparra

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Barmore isn't a draft hit?

This dude is playing near All-Pro level.

Bentley? Stevenson? Marcus Jones?

Not saying the record is amazing, though I think this year's will be pretty damned good when all is said and through, but it's more than 2 hits in 5 years.
He specifically cited Barmore, Jones and Strange as arguable "works in progress", which seems pretty fair, given flashes of good-to-great play, but a lot of injury downtime. And Bentley? Above-average LB for sure, but similarly not a game-breaking talent.

Hitting on a pick involves the luck of that pick staying healthy too. But I don't think I'd call any of these players such game-breakers that the team would have had many more wins had they been consistently healthy.
 

nattysez

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I thought he focused on the first three rounds in that article. Did I read it incorrectly?
You did not. Sorry about that.

As an aside, I read the whole article carefully over lunch and I really think it's worth reading. I don't think Barnwell's analysis of what happened to teams after firing a legendary coach was worthwhile, but the rest of the article is really well-done.

Unfortunately, I think he comes to the same conclusion of lot of people in the thread have -- the best outcome for the Pats would be Kraft hiring a GM/Head of Football Ops to handle personnel and have BB continue coaching, but BB is unlikely to go along with that.
 

Hoya81

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The answer is no. You can count on one hand the number of NFL coaches in the modern era with his kind of tenure with one team (Landry, Shula, Noll), and none of them did it without having a HOF QB for at least a sizable chunk of their tenure with that team.

The answer your question begs isn’t for the reason you think, or at least imply.
The only real exception would probably be Washington with Gibbs, who went to the playoffs (in both stints) and won SBs with a constantly evolving roster of offensive playmakers.
 

BaseballJones

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Gibbs. 4SB, 3 QB.
For this reason, Joe Gibbs has to be on the very short list of all-time great NFL coaches, right?

And yet he also had three losing seasons: 7-9 in 1988, 6-10 in 2004, and 5-11 in 2006. But those down years at the end don't really impact our view that he was absolutely an inner-circle all-time great NFL coach.
 

Anthologos

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For this reason, Joe Gibbs has to be on the very short list of all-time great NFL coaches, right?

And yet he also had three losing seasons: 7-9 in 1988, 6-10 in 2004, and 5-11 in 2006. But those down years at the end don't really impact our view that he was absolutely an inner-circle all-time great NFL coach.
An all-time great coach. He did have an all-world offensive line for many of those years…that continuity and excellence had to help.
 

Cellar-Door

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Honestly the best part of the Barnwell article was pointing out that short samples on GMs don't tell you much, and even the long tenured highly regarded guys have down stretches and up
 

Awesome Fossum

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Most amazing thing about the 1980s Redskins is that they didn't have a single first round draft pick between 1984 and 1990. And in fact, they had three TOTAL between 1969 and 1990. And those three became Art Monk, Mark May, and Darrell Green. Just unbelievable.

And then they finally started drafting again and had pretty terrible results. Three top five picks in 1992, 1994, and 1995 became Desmond Howard, Heath Shuler, and Michael Westbrook.
 

DJnVa

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I wonder if a Fields for Mac swap might make sense in the offseason.
Depends, I would think, on who the coaches are for the teams involved

Doubtful I think, because at least 1 of those teams will most likely have a shot at Maye or Williams. It'd be one thing if one of those guys is already on your roster and you draft one. Trading one for the other just to hold serve for a season...
 

Anthologos

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Most amazing thing about the 1980s Redskins is that they didn't have a single first round draft pick between 1984 and 1990. And in fact, they had three TOTAL between 1969 and 1990. And those three became Art Monk, Mark May, and Darrell Green. Just unbelievable.

And then they finally started drafting again and had pretty terrible results. Three top five picks in 1992, 1994, and 1995 became Desmond Howard, Heath Shuler, and Michael Westbrook.

That’s incredible. What’s the story there? I can look it up but am at work, so …
 

Justthetippett

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Most amazing thing about the 1980s Redskins is that they didn't have a single first round draft pick between 1984 and 1990. And in fact, they had three TOTAL between 1969 and 1990. And those three became Art Monk, Mark May, and Darrell Green. Just unbelievable.

And then they finally started drafting again and had pretty terrible results. Three top five picks in 1992, 1994, and 1995 became Desmond Howard, Heath Shuler, and Michael Westbrook.
This was Beathard right? Famous for trading back in the draft. Probably someone BB learned a lot from in that regard. And he was gone by the early 90s.
 

Awesome Fossum

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That’s incredible. What’s the story there? I can look it up but am at work, so …
In the 1970s, it was a lot of George Allen trading for veterans.

In the 1980s, it was a lot of trading down plus they gave up two picks to sign Wilber Marshall, the first free agent signing in 11 years.

This was Beathard right? Famous for trading back in the draft. Probably someone BB learned a lot from in that regard. And he was gone by the early 90s.
Yes, Beathard got there in 1978. Pretty easy to spot when Casserly took over.
 

Mystic Merlin

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The only real exception would probably be Washington with Gibbs, who went to the playoffs (in both stints) and won SBs with a constantly evolving roster of offensive playmakers.
I wasn’t including him because his first run with WASH was almost half as long as BB/Shula/Knoll’s tenures were, but certainly Gibbs was fantastic.
 

NomarsFool

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BB is BB, but it’s also not completely ridiculous that a person of his age might want to give up some of his responsibilities while still focusing on the part of his job that brings him the most satisfaction. At least many people in the world might view it that way. But, BB is not many people.
 

BaseballJones

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BB is BB, but it’s also not completely ridiculous that a person of his age might want to give up some of his responsibilities while still focusing on the part of his job that brings him the most satisfaction. At least many people in the world might view it that way. But, BB is not many people.
Yes this is interesting, because I was thinking the same thing. If he really loves COACHING more than anything, let someone else be the GM - probably with the firm understanding that BB is still very much a part of that process - and let BB focus just on coaching. We all know BB loves all aspects of football, but as he gets older and his energy levels drop, to be able to focus just on the coaching piece may be very appealing to him.

Yet at the same time, I'm sure he definitely wants a say - and probably the FINAL say - in personnel matters as well. He doesn't want to be "stuck" with players he didn't get to pick, I'd think.
 

Hoya81

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I wasn’t including him because his first run with WASH was almost half as long as BB/Shula/Knoll’s tenures were, but certainly Gibbs was fantastic.
It did help that WSH nearly always had elite or near elite players at the various skills positions during his tenure; Riggins, Monk, Byner, Portis, Brian Mitchell etc.
 

Devizier

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Is it established that Brady left because BB was done with him? The sense I get was that Brady wanted to move on.
I never cared about the drama but to me it seemed obvious that Brady saw an older team with little cap space and not many avenues for improvement and went in another direction.
 

Jettisoned

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For this reason, Joe Gibbs has to be on the very short list of all-time great NFL coaches, right?

And yet he also had three losing seasons: 7-9 in 1988, 6-10 in 2004, and 5-11 in 2006. But those down years at the end don't really impact our view that he was absolutely an inner-circle all-time great NFL coach.
I just read up on Joe Gibbs as a result of this discussion. It's pretty wild that he was Don Coryell's OC in San Diego for 79-80, then built a completely different smashmouth football sort of thing in Washington as a HC and won 3 Super Bowls.
 

Silverdude2167

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I'm curious, how would people feel if BB and the Pats parted ways and then he went to Buffalo? Because after last night, that job seems like it might be open sooner than later.
 

GPO Man

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The thing that gives me pause are all the rumors that Vrabel is the next guy. He is smart and charismatic and all but what evidence do we have that he can build a modern prolific NFL offense either?
If it’s not Bill fine but one would hope there would be a rethink here on philosophy.
The Vrabel thing is media click-bait. I don’t believe the Krafts have a plan for Vrabel to be Bill’s immediate replacement. Now if Vrabel was fired the same year BB left the organization, I can definitely see him being considered as the next HC.
 

jsinger121

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I'm curious, how would people feel if BB and the Pats parted ways and then he went to Buffalo? Because after last night, that job seems like it might be open sooner than later.
I honestly would not care. The operation has become so stale here in the past 4 years where I see trending down not up. Every Sunday they are consistently boring.
 

rodderick

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I'm curious, how would people feel if BB and the Pats parted ways and then he went to Buffalo? Because after last night, that job seems like it might be open sooner than later.
Considering my reaction to the way the Bills lost yesterday was "I can't believe they pulled that one off before the Pats", I wouldn't mind it much. But I fully expect Bill to still put together a contender with high level QB play, just don't think he's right for where the Pats stand right now.
 

BaseballJones

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I just read up on Joe Gibbs as a result of this discussion. It's pretty wild that he was Don Coryell's OC in San Diego for 79-80, then built a completely different smashmouth football sort of thing in Washington as a HC and won 3 Super Bowls.
Dude was a genius for sure. And then he went to NASCAR and built a championship team there as well.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm curious, how would people feel if BB and the Pats parted ways and then he went to Buffalo? Because after last night, that job seems like it might be open sooner than later.
Do we get draft compensation? If yes, I’m probably good with it. Now, that same scenario with the Jets and I’m not good with it.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Yes this is interesting, because I was thinking the same thing. If he really loves COACHING more than anything, let someone else be the GM - probably with the firm understanding that BB is still very much a part of that process - and let BB focus just on coaching. We all know BB loves all aspects of football, but as he gets older and his energy levels drop, to be able to focus just on the coaching piece may be very appealing to him.

Yet at the same time, I'm sure he definitely wants a say - and probably the FINAL say - in personnel matters as well. He doesn't want to be "stuck" with players he didn't get to pick, I'd think.
This is the tricky part...I don't think you'd get a self-respecting GM candidate that wants the pressure of saying "no" to BB and I don't think Bill could immediately stop watching football and getting attached to certain college prospects or FAs from other teams. Jonathan Kraft would really need to emphasize separation of the 2 branches of the org chart, with basically the personnel guy only consulting the coaching staff on what offensive & defensive schemes they are running in order to make his decisions compatible with the operation. Will this work in the real world? I am leaning no, which is why BB coaching with someone else as GM didn't seem like a valid option in the poll question presented on this board.
 

8slim

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I'm curious, how would people feel if BB and the Pats parted ways and then he went to Buffalo? Because after last night, that job seems like it might be open sooner than later.
I’d find it hysterical. I have a lot of Bills fan friends, and they’ve spent the past 20 years raging about that dirty cheater.
 

moondog80

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Do we get draft compensation? If yes, I’m probably good with it. Now, that same scenario with the Jets and I’m not good with it.
Regarding compensation -- the details of his contract have never been clear, but wasn't it reported a few weeks back that he had signed an extension? So we can assume he is owed quite bit of money? I could see a mutual agreement where BB gets none of the $$ beyond this year, but is free to pursue any job he wants, no strings attached.
 

Caspir

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Regarding compensation -- the details of his contract have never been clear, but wasn't it reported a few weeks back that he had signed an extension? So we can assume he is owed quite bit of money? I could see a mutual agreement where BB gets none of the $$ beyond this year, but is free to pursue any job he wants, no strings attached.
The reports say the “multi year” extension only runs through next season, so you’d get contract year Belichick in a hypothetical trade.
 

Hoya81

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I just read up on Joe Gibbs as a result of this discussion. It's pretty wild that he was Don Coryell's OC in San Diego for 79-80, then built a completely different smashmouth football sort of thing in Washington as a HC and won 3 Super Bowls.
Gibbs started out coaching OL and RBs primarily, so generally favored a strong running attack, which meshed well with the WSH personnel (Riggins, strong OL). While Cornell’s Cardinals teams passed more than most teams in the mid 70s, they ran more they passed every year he was there. “Air Coryell” didn’t really take hold until he got to SD, where Fouts turned out to be perfect for his offense. Although, it should be said that it also coincided with the passing of the Mel Blount rule, which meant that DBs couldn’t manhandle receivers within five yards of the LOS and opened up the passing game significantly.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I thought the Barwell article was pretty fair, but he widely missed the mark on why certain guys play more in some weeks than others. That's always been the case for BB teams, they put together a game plan for that week's specific opponent and the players who can execute that gameplan the best in practice are the ones who will play during the game itself. Barnwell kept using terms like "inexplicable" over this kind of player usage and I think that's pretty silly of him. It's always been this way.
 

BigJimEd

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I thought the Barwell article was pretty fair, but he widely missed the mark on why certain guys play more in some weeks than others. That's always been the case for BB teams, they put together a game plan for that week's specific opponent and the players who can execute that gameplan the best in practice are the ones who will play during the game itself. Barnwell kept using terms like "inexplicable" over this kind of player usage and I think that's pretty silly of him. It's always been this way.
Yeah, I stopped reading here. Barnwell clearly showed a lack of knowledge, understanding or was being willfully obtuse. Honestly found the article to be superficial rambling mess.


The reports say the “multi year” extension only runs through next season, so you’d get contract year Belichick in a hypothetical trade.
The acquiring team and Belichick will have agreed to a new contract before any hypothetical trade.
 
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tims4wins

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I dunno, I think some of the personnel / activation decisions this year are more random than ever before. Specifically at WR and CB
 

lexrageorge

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I thought the Barwell article was pretty fair, but he widely missed the mark on why certain guys play more in some weeks than others. That's always been the case for BB teams, they put together a game plan for that week's specific opponent and the players who can execute that gameplan the best in practice are the ones who will play during the game itself. Barnwell kept using terms like "inexplicable" over this kind of player usage and I think that's pretty silly of him. It's always been this way.
Yep. Belichick rightfully does not believe in "game day" players. Actually, few if any NFL coaches these days do.

Also, sometimes game situations dictate player snap counts in unpredictable ways. For example, if the situation calls for more 2 TE sets, there will be less playing time for either a WR or an RB on the depth chart. Similar situations occur on defense, where matchups and the opposing team's personnel packages can change during the course of a game.

I dunno, I think some of the personnel / activation decisions this year are more random than ever before. Specifically at WR and CB
Can you give any examples? I know Boutte keeps getting brought up, but we don't see what he is doing in practice. DB usage has been dictated in many cases by injuries and/or availability.
 

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Ernie Adams showed up in that documentary on SB49 practically screaming "THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A GAME DAY PLAYER."

There is practice and performance in practice and adherence and execution of the game plan. If a player does not do those things in practice, he will either not play or see few snaps on game day.

It's ever been thus.
 
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