This is Baseball: The Last Two Months and What They Mean

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

Baseball is great because there's none of the intermittency or false hype associated with other sports... the games occur every day, and you are what you are; your talent is borne out by your record, which ebbs and flows over weeks if not months, until October arrives and it's decided who gets to move on and who doesn't. Baseball does not lend itself to snap judgments. It laughs at the Hot Sports Take, and rightfully so.
 
The Red Sox did not have a good year. Or they did not have a good 2/3rds of a year, I should say. But since August 1st, they've gone 32-22 and have shown a remarkable resiliency and joie-de-vivre, fueled mostly by rookies and second/third-year players such as Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, Eduardo Rodriguez, Travis Shaw and Henry Owens.
 
The season is winding down now, and I'll miss baseball more than I ever thought I would have if you asked me a couple of months ago. I've greatly enjoyed these past 8 weeks, and they serve as a reminder of what makes baseball great in the first place: the manifestation of talent and hard work and luck, writ large on a daily basis over the course of the spring and summer and early fall, confronting us with our successes and frailties while ever tantalizing us with the possibility of rebirth.

 

[Mike Greenwall]

Deep in Canada, everybody is talking Blue Jays.  My co-workers know I am not one of them and try and tease, and cajole me into shallow baseball arguments.  These are mostly fans whose Donaldson jerseys still have the price tag on.  I don't bite.  I deflect their harmless barbs, wish them good luck, and give them a smile, like I know something they don't know.  I wouldn't trade our next 5 years for any team in baseball.  

 

[CoRP]

joie-de-vivre
 
writ large
 
tantalizing us with the possibility of rebirth

...and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Deep in Canada, everybody is talking Blue Jays.  My co-workers know I am not one of them and try and tease, and cajole me into shallow baseball arguments.  These are mostly fans whose Donaldson jerseys still have the price tag on.  I don't bite.  I deflect their harmless barbs, wish them good luck, and give them a smile, like I know something they don't know.  I wouldn't trade our next 5 years for any team in baseball
 

 
I'm having the exact same experience .. just a sly nod of the head and a knowing smile .. enjoy it while you can .. a couple of years from now they'll be back rooting for the Leafs (who might even be good by then)

 

[86spike]

If we're going to miss the playoffs, I sure as shit have enjoyed this season's dynamic to one where the team plays well and then implodes down the line.
 
Hope springs eternal.

 

[shaggydog2000]

If we're going to miss the playoffs, I sure as shit have enjoyed this season's dynamic to one where the team plays well and then implodes down the line.
 
Hope springs eternal.

 
Ending on an upswing fueled by young cost controlled players?  Yeah, that is way better than the crap sandwich we've been handed at the end of the year in our other recent non-playoff years.  It's even nice to know if some of these players don't play up to their current level (and some should not be expected to) the Sox should still be better next year. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
Ending on an upswing fueled by young cost controlled players?  Yeah, that is way better than the crap sandwich we've been handed at the end of the year in our other recent non-playoff years.  It's even nice to know if some of these players don't play up to their current level (and some should not be expected to) the Sox should still be better next year. 

 
Well - the only young guys that would seem likely to regress would be Shaw and JBJ. But I certainly would't bet on it. On the other hand I expect the rest of them to improve - because that's what young players usually do.

 

[75cent bleacher seat]

I got to see Betts, Swihart, Shaw, and Owens who I got to chat with watching the game together here in Binghamton where they played the Mets double A team....this makes it all the more exciting for me.  This off-season will be an eternity...ugh.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

This extended eight weeks is the moment when it was Christmas morning and you just woke up and you still aren't quite sure what is under the tree. It could be anything. It could be Castle Grayskull or the Millennium Falcon or it could be the 1986 Topps Traded Set (Canseco, Joyner, Bo Jackson AND Don Baylor in a Sox uniform!) or an ADAM computer or it could be a pair of tube socks. And THAT was the most exciting part of Christmas.
 
Right now Xander Bogaerts could be the Millennium Falcon and Mookie Betts could be Castle Grayskull and JBJ could be the 1986 Topps Traded Set and Owens could be the ADAM Computer. Or they could all be tube socks and underwear. And you need that threat of undies and socks to make the good gifts seem GREAT, just like you need the possibility that some of these guys might wash out.  
 
This feeling of hope is what fuels us as baseball fans. This is why we're drawn year after year after year after year to cheer for a bunch of dudes running around on a green field, that faint glimmer that we might be on the ground floor of something big. 
 
I was thinking earlier today that with BBC in the outfield, Marrero playing third, Bogaerts at short, Pedroia at second, Shaw at first, Swihart behind the dish and Owens pitching; that's a completely home-grown lineup (aside from Ortiz at DH). And with the way that baseball is run these days, that's pretty special. And while I don't expect it to last for the entirety of next year, I've enjoyed watching it the last two months. 
 
So yeah, I guess you can say that I'm ready for Spring Training. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I haven't been this exited to get into a season since just before the 2007 campaign. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Lester and Delcarmen were all shiny and new and bursting with potential, Youk was still young, they'd just landed Matsuzaka who was supposed to be the second coming... That future was incredibly bright and that season obviously went extremely well. Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lester were around for two titles.

I'm expecting an exciting year and a playoff appearance even if all they do this winter is fix the pen. If they land Price, all bets are off. The next great Red Sox team is here and there's more help on the way from the farm. Plenty more.
 
Edit: Somehow I forgot about Buchholz.

 

[nvalvo]

A few years back, in the aftermath of 2012 and the Big Trade, I remember some discussions that were predicated on the assumption that the team's window was 2016-2020, looking at the projected primes of Bradley, Bogaerts, and Blake. (These were the days before the Mookie Meter.)
 

 
(Then we weirdly won the World Series.)
 
We're on the clock. 

 

[snowmanny]

 I expected the 2015 team to be really fun but not necessarily a playoff team.  I was wrong for about 100 games.  It's been great since. 
 
And while I am excited and optimistic about 2016 the last month or two is a reminder that while the goal is to win the World Series being a fan is actually not an all-or-nothing experience.
Many Red Sox teams have been worth watching even though they weren't winning the World Series, sometimes because they had flat out amazing players like Yastrzemski or Boggs or Clemens, sometimes because they had incredibly fun players like Betts and Bradley.  It's not always all about maximizing WAR: I mean, Fangraphs has Betts 20th in WAR this year and Chris Davis 19th, but as a fan I am pretty sure it was about fifty times more enjoyable to watch Betts than it would have been to watch Davis.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 I expected the 2015 team to be really fun but not necessarily a playoff team.  I was wrong for about 100 games.  It's been great since. 
 
And while I am excited and optimistic about 2016 the last month or two is a reminder that while the goal is to win the World Series being a fan is actually not an all-or-nothing experience.
Many Red Sox teams have been worth watching even though they weren't winning the World Series, sometimes because they had flat out amazing players like Yastrzemski or Boggs or Clemens, sometimes because they had incredibly fun players like Betts and Bradley.  It's not always all about maximizing WAR: I mean, Fangraphs has Betts 20th in WAR this year and Chris Davis 19th, but as a fan I am pretty sure it was about fifty times more enjoyable to watch Betts than it would have been to watch Davis.

And Garciaparra in his best years.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Oh good, another offseason where SoSH posters compete with each other to predict how many wins above 95 we will finish.

 

[snowmanny]

Oh good, another offseason where SoSH posters compete with each other to predict how many wins above 95 we will finish.

Yeah well pitching.

 

[yecul]

A few years back, in the aftermath of 2012 and the Big Trade, I remember some discussions that were predicated on the assumption that the team's window was 2016-2020, looking at the projected primes of Bradley, Bogaerts, and Blake. (These were the days before the Mookie Meter.)
 

 
(Then we weirdly won the World Series.)
 
We're on the clock. 

 
This is 100% where I was and where I remain. I didn't think they'd bottom out like they did. I didn't think they'd win the Series like they did. But 2016 was the start. 
 
It winding up being 1 World Series + 1 Awful year + a Half/Half year... that's way better than 3 middle of the road years. I will take it.
 
They may not win the Series next year, but they're on the right track to have a long run of success. 

 

[Devizier]

Oh good, another offseason where SoSH posters compete with each other to predict how many wins above 95 we will finish.

 
Wasn't 82 about the median number before this year?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Wasn't 82 about the median number before this year?

 
Less than 9% of the votes in the predictions thread were for 95+ wins and of the 29 that were cast, 10 were for 100+ which were very likely done in jest. So, yeah...

 

[alwyn96]

Oh good, another offseason where SoSH posters compete with each other to predict how many wins above 95 we will finish.

 
Seems like you could just predict 67 wins above 95 and win the competition quickly and easily.
 
Wait, could you win 68 games over 95? In order to play a 163rd "regular season" game, the Red Sox would have to be tied with another team in the league (or division? I'm not sure), which I think would be impossible if they play all the teams in the league/division at least once. So I'm pretty sure 67 is as high as you could go, unless you start counting playoff games.
 
I win!

 

[Rasputin]

Oh good, another offseason where SoSH posters compete with each other to predict how many wins above 95 we will finish.

I'm pretty sure we all know who's going to win that competition.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Sox starting pitching has been outstanding in August and September.  How much of that can be attributed to the vastly improved outfield defense?

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Along those lines, I wonder how much of the early season face plant by the starting pitching was due to an outfield comprised of three converted infielders. Mookie was decent in center, but lacking in experience, while Craig and Hanley were disasters.

 

[rlsb]

I hope for a 1975 redux and a World Series win.  If it doesn't happen in 2016, it will this decade.  There is too much talent.  The pitching will improve.

 

[AB in DC]

The Sox starting pitching has been outstanding in August and September.  How much of that can be attributed to the vastly improved outfield defense?

 
Red Sox starters per Fangraphs:
 
1st half: 4.75 ERA, 3.90 FIP
2nd half: 3.99 ERA, 3.99 FIP
 
So yeah, defense seems to have made a big difference in the second half.  But the rotation looked a lot different, too.  Let's look at players who pitched in both halfs:
 
 
Porcello
 
1st half: 5.90 ERA, 4.53 FIP
2nd half: 3.64 ERA, 3.79 FIP
 
No surprise here -- Porcello is clearly a better pitcher in the second half, but better defense helped a lot, too.
 
 
Miley
 
1st half: 4.80 ERA, 4.00 FIP
2nd half: 4.09 ERA, 3.60 FIP
 
 
Looks like small improvements in both pitching and defense.
 
 
Kelly
 
1st half: 5.67 ERA, 4.21 FIP
2nd half: 3.77 ERA, 4.14 FIP
 
This surprised me a lot.  That's a huge swing in ERA with almost no change in FIP.  Is this defense or luck?
 
 
EdRo
 
1st half: 3.59 ERA, 3.65 FIP
2nd half: 4.04 ERA, 4.14 FIP
 
Only nine starts in the first half, so I wouldn't read too much into this.  Everyone knew the dominance from his first few starts wouldn't last.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Kelly
 
1st half: 5.67 ERA, 4.21 FIP
2nd half: 3.77 ERA, 4.14 FIP
 
This surprised me a lot.  That's a huge swing in ERA with almost no change in FIP.  Is this defense or luck?
 

 
You want more baffling from Kelly.  In the second half, his line drive percentage went up (22.8% to 28.1%), as did his hard hit balls (32.6% to 39.4%), and his BABIP (.312 to .330).  He got hit harder and more balls were falling in for hits, yet he cut two runs from his ERA.  Hard to credit the defense for that.  I imagine it had everything to do with the clustering of the hits he did give up (not sure how to find that out for certain).  Head scratching to say the least.