The unprojectable Clay Buchholz

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
That is pretty. Look at all the swings he got on pitches down and out of the zone--and he earned them by pounding the lower third so consistently. 
 
It was a great coming-out party for Hanigan, too. He seemed really in sync with Buchholz all game; Clay looked comfortable and his tempo was (for him anyway) brisk, but never rushed.
 
 

Careful with the FX data from that game, it's all screwy. Need to wait for them to reparse it. Happens sometimes on opening day.

That called strike an inch and a half off the ground certainly looks like it might have some 'splainin' to do.

 

[luckysox]

Man, his stuff was really sweet today. He twirled Utley around on his front foot three times, and made Galvis and Herrera look especially lost, too. His fastball was a crisp 91-92, and it was enough to set apart the change and curve, which were awesome. Best I've seen him pitch in person in four games. Confident coming off the mound, head up. Loved it.

 

[ivanvamp]

I thought he had a nasty curveball yesterday - it looked like the curveball of old.  Sharp, big-time downward movement, threw it for strikes.  Loved it.

 

[Jnai]

That game has been mostly cleaned now.
 
Other interesting fact: More sinkers than he's thrown percentage wise in 3 years. Going to ask Harry about the Change / Split classification, though. Pretty sure those are changes.
 

 

[EricFeczko]

The above plot is consistent with my uninformed eye. Regardless of the classificiation, that wasn't the changeup I recall from 2009.
 
My uninformed eye also tells me that Buchholz had more velocity on his non-offspeed pitches than I've seen since 2013.

 

[Sprowl]

The above plot is consistent with my uninformed eye. Regardless of the classificiation, that wasn't the changeup I recall from 2009.
 
My uninformed eye also tells me that Buchholz had more velocity on his pitches than I've seen since 2013.

My reading is that the pitches are too slow to be Buchholz' split from 2013, which averaged ~85 mph. They also have too much horizontal movement to be Buchholz' changeup from 2008-2014, which famously had less horizontal run than his fastball or sinker. This appears to be a re-worked changeup with the same movement as his sinker, but more velocity separation than any season since 2009.
 
Also, his hardest of his 94 pitches was his 93rd, which is impressive stamina for Opening Day.

 

[EricFeczko]

My reading is that the pitches are too slow to be Buchholz' split from 2013, which averaged ~85 mph. They also have too much horizontal movement to be Buchholz' changeup from 2008-2014, which famously had less horizontal run than his fastball or sinker. This appears to be a re-worked changeup with the same movement as his sinker, but more velocity separation than any season since 2009.

Whoops. When I said "Buchholz had more velocity on his pitches", I really meant his fastball/sinker/cutter. I should've put a bit more thought into my prior post. I've edited it to reflect my intention. Sorry about that.

 

[Plympton91]

Watching the compilation of out pitches on NESN, it looked to me like the best stuff he's had since he threw a no hitter in his second major league start. The Buggs Bunny changeup was back, and the curveball was so late and tight that it looked like a drop ball in fast-pitch softball. Hope he can stay consistent and healthy. Just seeing that one start has me upgrading my season win prediction for the team by 3 from 84 to 87.

 

[Sprowl]

Whoops. When I said "Buchholz had more velocity on his pitches", I really meant his fastball/sinker/cutter. I should've put a bit more thought into my prior post. I've edited it to reflect my intention. Sorry about that.

 
Not to worry - I was responding to your comment about the new changeup. It was clear that your velocity comment referred to the fastball and sinker.
 

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Not to worry - I was responding to your comment about the new changeup. It was clear that your velocity comment referred to the fastball and sinker.
 

 
I didn't see the game but followed the gamethread. No mention of speedgun (was there one?) numbers. Very pleasantly surprised to see 92 - 95+ on his hard stuff. I know his offspeed stuff is his bread and butter but I don't think he was throwing this hard in ST. Encouraging game for Clay all around. Stay healthy, Clay!

 

[Jnai]

Also, careful with velocity readings on Day 1. We have little calibration information, and so we use our defaults for corrections. These are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.
 
Careful with everything on Day 1.
 
Just, fuck Day 1. Yesterday's data had Clay Buchholz throwing from both sides of the rubber before it was cleaned up.

 

[Jnai]

My reading is that the pitches are too slow to be Buchholz' split from 2013, which averaged ~85 mph. They also have too much horizontal movement to be Buchholz' changeup from 2008-2014, which famously had less horizontal run than his fastball or sinker. This appears to be a re-worked changeup with the same movement as his sinker, but more velocity separation than any season since 2009.
 
Also, his hardest of his 94 pitches was his 93rd, which is impressive stamina for Opening Day.

 
Right. It's weird. Asking our video guy to go watch.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Also, careful with velocity readings on Day 1. We have little calibration information, and so we use our defaults for corrections. These are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.
 
Careful with everything on Day 1.
 
Just, fuck Day 1. Yesterday's data had Clay Buchholz throwing from both sides of the rubber before it was cleaned up.

Good point. I looked at Hamels' PITCHf/x numbers and they might have been a bit high on the hard stuff for an opening day start, although not that high at 93.5 to 96.2. At least Clay was most likely not in the high 80s.  

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

So, um, what happened in the first inning tonight? Looked like every other pitch was a meatball down the middle.

 

[WenZink]

So, um, what happened in the first inning tonight? Looked like every other pitch was a meatball down the middle.

 
It's Clay -- the Peter-Paul performer of the decade.  Sometimes he feels like a nut, sometimes he "don't."  Mounds last Monday, Almond Joy tonight. 

 

[Darnell's Son]

I am lost, this is not the game thread.

 

[Jnai]

So, um, what happened in the first inning tonight? Looked like every other pitch was a meatball down the middle.

 
Interestingly... that doesn't seem to have been the issue. Kind of a big hole in the middle of the zone where you'd expect all those mistakes to be:
 

 

[Fireball Fred]

Okay, can we make the trade now? Throwing meatballs is one thing, refusing to take part in fielding quite another. A snit too far.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Okay, can we make the trade now? Throwing meatballs is one thing, refusing to take part in fielding quite another. A snit too far.

Yes I'm sure the suitors will just be lining up to make offers for him.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Some context - most runs given up in any start by certain pitchers:
 
Pedro Martinez - 10 - 4/12/2003 vs BAL (and 1 game with 9)
Curt Schilling - 11 - 7/1/1993 at STL (and 2 games with 9, one of which bizarrely only tagged him with 1 ER)
Felix Hernandez - 10 - 5/16/2006 at OAK (only 5 ER)
Clayton Kershaw - 9 - 4/26/2009 at COL
Randy Johnson - 11 - 4/10/1994 at TOR (and 1 with 10)
Greg Maddux - 10 - 4/25/2002 vs ARI (and another a year later at PHI)
Roger Clemens - 9 - six times including this 15-hit barrage vs MFY
Mike Mussina - 10 - 4/21/1999 at TB
CC Sabathia - 9 - five times including this memorable bout in 2005 vs the Sox
 
Before tonight, Clay's worst outings had been two 8-run performances, including this season-ender at the Yankees in 2012.

 

[donutogre]

Okay, can we make the trade now? Throwing meatballs is one thing, refusing to take part in fielding quite another. A snit too far.

For those who didn't watch the game - what happened?

 

[bosockboy]

Last two starts are definitely a microcosm of Clay. Maddeningly inconsistent.

 

[Rasputin]

For those who didn't watch the game - what happened?

They hit everything he through like they not only knew what pitch was coming, but like they did some freaky Jedi crap to make sure they hit it hard.

 

[strek1]

For those who didn't watch the game - what happened?

 After a couple of hits,  instead of backing up bases like he should have done, Clay stood on the mound sulking.

 

[soxhop411]

@JMastrodonato: Buchholz admitted he shouldve been backing up home but said he was frustrated and thought runs were scoring regardless.

 

[soxhop411]

@TimBritton: Buchholz: I had a whole season like that last year.

 

[soxhop411]

@JMastrodonato: Farrell said he prefers all his pitchers continue to back up bases regardless. The game doesnt stop.

 

[soxhop411]

@ScottLauber: Buchholz: Mistake to not back up home. Chalked up to frustration. Poor excuse, of course, but pitch execution was far bigger issue #RedSox

 

[soxhop411]

@JMastrodonato: Buchholz was adamant that he wasnt going to let one bad start change the way he feels about this season.

 

[soxhop411]

@JMastrodonato: Consensus on Clay Buchholzs night from coaches: He didnt establish his fastball, went too quickly to soft stuff, familiar Yanks sat on it.

 

[soxhop411]

@PeteAbe: Buchholz on not backing up some plays: Thats a mistake on my part. Pretty frustrated when things are going that way.

 

[jimbobim]

@JMastrodonato: Consensus on Clay Buchholzs night from coaches: He didnt establish his fastball, went too quickly to soft stuff, familiar Yanks sat on it.

Kudos to Mastrodonato for going beyond Clay and the backing up apology quotes. Actually got some useful insight. Correlates with what a scout told Buster confidence tied to breaking ball and he didn't have it today from the jump.
 
I'm curious to see how he pitches next time. Really unfortunate and frustrating  in that very next half inning those three runs were given right back with some well struck well placed grounders.  

 

[twibnotes]

Kudos to Mastrodonato for going beyond Clay and the backing up apology quotes. Actually got some useful insight. Correlates with what a scout told Buster confidence tied to breaking ball and he didn't have it today from the jump.

What is interesting about Buchholz is that he has four pitches that are said to be plus pitches*, yet it seems like when something isn't working, nothing is.

Could one of our pitchfx or scouting experts talk to this? Is it a myth that he "can" have four plus pitches? It just seems very odd that a guy with a supposedly deep arsenal would struggle so much to adjust. A guy with lots of tools should be more, not less, consistent since he has things to fall back on when one weapon is off that day.

*example: schilling said this last night

 

[JimD]

If there was any chance at all of the Sox picking up his '16 option (and I'm not sure there was to begin with), it probably disappeared last night.

 

[Toe Nash]

If there was any chance at all of the Sox picking up his '16 option (and I'm not sure there was to begin with), it probably disappeared last night.

He has two starts.
 
I wasn't bullish on him pitching very well before last night, but he has 94% of the season left.
 
Plus, the option is only $13m on a one-year deal -- he doesn't have to be particularly good to make that a slam dunk to pick up. 2 WAR? He's matched or (far) surpassed that 5 of the last 6 years.

 

[TigerBlood]

If there was any chance at all of the Sox picking up his '16 option (and I'm not sure there was to begin with), it probably disappeared last night.

Might as well just shut down the entire franchise while we're at it.

 

[RedOctober3829]

That start last night was so disappointing on so many levels from Buchholz.  The bullpen is still completely gassed after the 19 inning game on Friday and there is an afternoon game in Boston the next day.  He not only pitched poorly, but his outing pulled him so far out of focus that he forgets to do his job of backing up bases.  After 8 years in the major leagues, I would hope that a complete meltdown of both focus and confidence would be over but sadly it is not.  The supposed ace of the staff and leader does not throw that kind of game in that situation.

 

[Kull]

 

@JMastrodonato: Consensus on Clay Buchholzs night from coaches: He didnt establish his fastball, went too quickly to soft stuff, familiar Yanks sat on it.

 
Compare the location charts from his 1st and 2nd games, and that's exactly what it looks like. Against the Phillies, he got them to swing at 22 of the 42 pitches that were down and out of the zone or outside and to the right:
 

 
Against the Yankees, he only generates swings on 5 of 28 pitches in each of those areas.
 

 
Interestingly... that doesn't seem to have been the issue. Kind of a big hole in the middle of the zone where you'd expect all those mistakes to be:
 

 

[lexrageorge]

The BABIP gods giveth (0.188 against Philly), and they taketh away (0.467 last night).  Doesn't explain everything, of course, but 2 games has zero bearing on whether the team picks up a very cheap $13M option for 2016. 

 

[Max Venerable]

Its Buchholz.  Its early.  This wasn't a must win.  In any big game situation, Buchholz would have been lifted either after or in the middle of the 1st inning.  It was an ugly start for him ~40 hours after the franchise' longest game in history ended.  Part of that is him sucking, and part of it is just a managerial decision to try to let him work through it, even at the risk of a blowout game.  He did kind of work out of it, before again getting shitty in the middle of the game.  If the season had been on the line, there's no way he gets that opportunity.
 
I think that, given the makeup of this rotation, with multiple guys that have proven to be potential tinderboxes at times, finding room for Steven Wright is a no-brainer.  If he can find his grove, a short hook with Wright always in reserve to give us a second chance starter would be a great weapon.  I would be surprised if there weren't 10+ scenarios where that could prove useful game over the course of a season.  "Long relief Ace" isn't a real role, but it could be with a guy like Wright.

 

[Rasputin]

 "Long relief Ace" isn't a real role, but it could be with a guy like Wright.

 
Long reliever is a role that existed for ages until falling out of favor the last several years as folks decided one inning was enough for any reliever in a night.

 

[Green Monster]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but was there any discussion about his bullpen session on Saturday?  Is this common for pitchers to throw a bullpen the day before a start or was he testing something to see if he was fit to go??

 

[benhogan]

When you go with a staff of #2/3 starters, early exits are going to happen.  
 
Good article on fanGraphs about how Earl Weaver worked in young starters as long relief pitchers.  Maybe thats a good way to break in Brian Johnson, Steven Wright, Henry Owens, E Rodriquez, Matt Barnes at the major league level.
 
Count me as one that would rather have a young long reliever w/options then 3 short inning lefties.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upside-and-downside-of-torontos-young-relievers/

 

[Sprowl]

When you go with a staff of #2/3 starters, early exits are going to happen.  
 
Good article on fanGraphs about how Earl Weaver worked in young starters as long relief pitchers.  Maybe thats a good way to break in Brian Johnson, Steven Wright, Henry Owens, E Rodriquez, Matt Barnes at the major league level.
 
Count me as one that would rather have a young long reliever w/options then 3 short inning lefties.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upside-and-downside-of-torontos-young-relievers/

 
Why is that an either/or choice? As a former starter with no particular platoon split, Robbie Ross should be able to pitch more than an inning.

 

[pokey_reese]

Kull posted the two charts one above the other from his two starts, and what jumped out to me most was the number of pitches up (above the center line at 2.5 vertical units) and in the strike zone plot  last night. Against the Phillies he only had 6 pitches that were above that line and fully in the zone, whereas against the Yankees he had 15. While not many of them ended up hurting him, it's a lot different than the first chart where he just pounded low, both in and out of the strike zone.

 

[nvalvo]

Clay wasn't sharp at all, but as the charts show, he wasn't missing into the middle of the plate (like you would expect given his line). NY picked up on his over-reliance on his breaking stuff, stayed back, and barreled up some decently-located breaking stuff. The A-Rod 2B is the best example. That's a sharply-breaking slider (?) on a 0-0 count, located away and a touch above knee-high. Normally a hitter takes that for a strike, but A-Rod clearly had a pretty good idea it was coming. 
 
Of course, there were also some poorly-timed defensive miscues, and freaky BABIP luck. I'm thinking particularly of Gardner's hit-and-run dribbler through the left side. He got his share of soft ground balls, and too few of them were converted into outs. 
 
Damon: Walk.
Gardner: Dribbler. 
Beltran: Dribbler, Napoli makes horrible throw to Bogaerts on a play Pedroia might have turned two on.
Teix: Walk.
McCann: Dribbler, Napoli boots a near-certain double play ball. 
A-Rod: Double.
Headley: Homer.
Drew: Homer. 
 
I'm not saying Clay was good — at all — but most offenses will do some damage if you don't convert balls in play into outs.  

 

[FinanceAdvice]

Maybe Im being too psycho-analytical but I believe it's a question of confidence with Buchholz.  I think part of this thinking comes from Schillings comments.  At this level of baseball, being super-confident is  almost a necessity, epscially when playing for the Red Sox and their high expectations.  
 
Honestly I think Buchholz can be far far better.  Certainly not a HOF pitcher but far better than his current stats.  He could even have  a defeatist attitude as evidenced by not backing up C or third base.  While one game does not make a season (I felt the Yanks would break out of the doldrums soon) color me a tad skeptical.  I think Red Sox have more upside potential in Porcello and Kelly.  Perhaps you could even throw in Owens, Johnson, Barnes and Rodriquez.  I still think Sox need Hamels but not at expense of Betts or Swihart.  Something can be worked out but the truculant ahole Amaro is too obstinate.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Clay wasn't sharp at all, but as the charts show, he wasn't missing into the middle of the plate (like you would expect given his line). NY picked up on his over-reliance on his breaking stuff, stayed back, and barreled up some decently-located breaking stuff. The A-Rod 2B is the best example. That's a sharply-breaking slider (?) on a 0-0 count, located away and a touch above knee-high. Normally a hitter takes that for a strike, but A-Rod clearly had a pretty good idea it was coming. 
 
Of course, there were also some poorly-timed defensive miscues, and freaky BABIP luck. I'm thinking particularly of Gardner's hit-and-run dribbler through the left side. He got his share of soft ground balls, and too few of them were converted into outs. 
 
Damon: Walk.
Gardner: Dribbler. 
Beltran: Dribbler, Napoli makes horrible throw to Bogaerts on a play Pedroia might have turned two on.
Teix: Walk.
McCann: Dribbler, Napoli boots a near-certain double play ball. 
A-Rod: Double.
Headley: Homer.
Drew: Homer. 
 
I'm not saying Clay was good — at all — but most offenses will do some damage if you don't convert balls in play into outs.  

If he walked Johnny Damon last night, then that was some really terrible pitching.
 
Was Buchholz shaking off a lot of pitches early? Or was Hanigan calling for all the breaking balls? 

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

I assume the Damon comment was to imply that all Sox-to-Yankees Centerfield traitors look alike to him.
 
Cashman probably wishes he only gave the Damon contract to Ellsbury, though, at the rate Jacoby's going.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

They swung like they knew what was coming, huh?

Is he tipping pitches?