The Testing Era and Free Agents

[ivanvamp]

Verducci with interesting thoughts on Lester here (http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/09/jon-lester-winter-meetings-oakland-billy-beane-hall-fame):
 
A snippet:
 
"Whichever teams winds up winning the bidding for Jon Lester will get a very good pitcher and a very bad contract. Combine a bidding war between three high-profile, big-market teams — the Cubs, Giants and Red Sox — and a durable pitcher who is available without having to give up talent or draft picks, and you get a recipe for overpayment. It's bound to end poorly.
It's foolish to give a pitcher in the Testing Era a six- or seven-year contract that begins with his age-31 season. In fact, it's so foolish it's never been done before. The history of such contracts even for younger pitchers all but assures Lester's new team will get poor value for the length of its investment. But with Lester looming as the kind of pitcher who can make a difference for one year and one championship, clubs have lined up to buy this veritable lottery ticket."

 

[Otis Foster]

Verducci with interesting thoughts on Lester here (http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/09/jon-lester-winter-meetings-oakland-billy-beane-hall-fame):
 
A snippet:
 
"Whichever teams winds up winning the bidding for Jon Lester will get a very good pitcher and a very bad contract. Combine a bidding war between three high-profile, big-market teams — the Cubs, Giants and Red Sox — and a durable pitcher who is available without having to give up talent or draft picks, and you get a recipe for overpayment. It's bound to end poorly.
It's foolish to give a pitcher in the Testing Era a six- or seven-year contract that begins with his age-31 season. In fact, it's so foolish it's never been done before. The history of such contracts even for younger pitchers all but assures Lester's new team will get poor value for the length of its investment. But with Lester looming as the kind of pitcher who can make a difference for one year and one championship, clubs have lined up to buy this veritable lottery ticket."

 
If it means what I take it to mean, it's off on the grass and dumb. What cancer survivor is going to play around with 'roids or other performance enhancing drugs?
 
JL is not a stupid man.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
If it means what I take it to mean, it's off on the grass and dumb. What cancer survivor is going to play around with 'roids or other performance enhancing drugs?
 
JL is not a stupid man.

It doesn't mean that he thinks Lester is going to do steroids.  It means that the practice of giving a 31-year-old pitcher a 7-year contract in this era is not good for business.

 

[EvilEmpire]

 
If it means what I take it to mean, it's off on the grass and dumb. What cancer survivor is going to play around with 'roids or other performance enhancing drugs?
 
JL is not a stupid man.

I think all he means is that without chemical assistance, the performance in those later years won't be there.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
If it means what I take it to mean, it's off on the grass and dumb. What cancer survivor is going to play around with 'roids or other performance enhancing drugs?
 
JL is not a stupid man.

I think he's saying that in this era the illicit fountain of youth has dried up, and so aging players are dumber investments than they used to be.

 

[InsideTheParker]

It doesn't mean that he thinks Lester is going to do steroids.  It means that the practice of giving a 31-year-old pitcher a 7-year contract in this era is not good for business.

Yeah, I took it to mean that now that players are afraid to do steroids, they can't prolong their effectiveness into their late thirties and forties. See Pettitte and Clemens.

 

[Otis Foster]

It doesn't mean that he thinks Lester is going to do steroids.  It means that the practice of giving a 31-year-old pitcher a 7-year contract in this era is not good for business.

 
I meant the reference to the Testing Era. It certainly suggests that there might have been suspicions that his prior and/or present performance might reflect use. Any cancer patient who dabbled with that has a death wish, and I don't think JL does. .

 

[koufax37]

 
If it means what I take it to mean, it's off on the grass and dumb. What cancer survivor is going to play around with 'roids or other performance enhancing drugs?
 
JL is not a stupid man.

 
I don't think it means that at all.
 
I think it means that what we expected of year 35-37 players a decade ago isn't reasonable now, and we are talking about the back end of a contract in which a player is likely to be dealing with the normal aging process, and not the Clemens/Bonds 40 is the new 30 stuff that might have had teams not shy away from later year contracts for a while.
 
As a left handed pitcher I personally, without any major operable injury, loved my 35 year old season, somewhat enjoyed my 36 year old season, and then looked around for the hidden camera when I was 37 and started to feel 47 all at once.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
I meant the reference to the Testing Era. It certainly suggests that there might have been suspicions that his prior and/or present performance might reflect use. Any cancer patient who dabbled with that has a death wish, and I don't think JL does. .

He refers to this era as the Testing Era because that's what it is.  Nowhere there does he lay suspicion that Lester may have been doing PEDs before.

 

[Scriblerus]

I'm sure I'm reading too much into it, but I recall there being some predictions that Lester might age/perform in a similar fashion to Pettite.  Not that Verducci is calling out Pettite directly, but the precident is there for older pitchers who have succeeded in the past did so with the help of PED.
 
The implication (and rightly so) is that Lester might not be so durable because he would not be using.

 

[Otis Foster]

Yeah, I took it to mean that now that players are afraid to do steroids, they can't prolong their effectiveness into their late thirties and forties. See Pettitte and Clemens.

 
Could be right on that, but if that's his point, he could have made it a little more clear. 
 
Onward and upward, as Mort Sahl used to say..

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

 
If it means what I take it to mean, it's off on the grass and dumb. What cancer survivor is going to play around with 'roids or other performance enhancing drugs?
 
JL is not a stupid man.

 
The most famous cancer survivor athlete in history (Lance Armstrong) did much more than "play around" with PEDs, he became one of the greatest athletes in world history.  Not trying to disparage Lester at all, but I don't think he is any more or less likely than anyone else to want to improve his body by any means necessary.

 

[Leather]

 
Could be right on that, but if that's his point, he could have made it a little more clear. 
 
Onward and upward, as Mort Sahl used to say..

 
I mean, it was clear to the rest of us.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Broke this out from the Lester thread.