The Starting Rotation's Start

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uk_sox_fan

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I go to like 1-2 games a year. If he pitches when I go, I will cheer if he pitches well, and boo if he doesn't. Unless you think I need to be more positive on SoSH because he is lurking.
Obviously I don’t in a literal sense but I do try to write my posts in a way that I wouldn’t regret if I subsequently found out the person I was talking about did read it. I.e. I try to be fair in my judgment and not unduly mean in my criticism.

Unless, of course, I’m posting about a lurker who’s being an imbecile...
 

tims4wins

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Obviously I don’t in a literal sense but I do try to write my posts in a way that I wouldn’t regret if I subsequently found out the person I was talking about did read it. I.e. I try to be fair in my judgment and not unduly mean in my criticism.

Unless, of course, I’m posting about a lurker who’s being an imbecile...
I would not regret if David Price read my post that said I hope he opts out. He is probably a great guy in person, I'd probably love having a beer with him, etc. But I hope he and his $30M contract opt out, because A) he hasn't pitched close to well enough to be worth that, and B) the Sox have to pay guys like Sale, Mookie, etc., and $30M would help.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well considering that peak Pedro is the greatest pitcher who ever lived, yes, for Sale to be reasonably compared to him is high praise indeed.

Keep in mind that these are the raw numbers - they aren't contextualized. This is an era in baseball that is lower scoring than it was in Pedro's prime, with a lot more strikeouts. So to compare...

Pedro's 2003 ERA: 2.22
Pedro's 2003 ERA+: 211

Sale's 2018 ERA: 2.23
Sale's 2018 ERA+: 194

I mean, 194 is still out of this world, but it's significantly worse than Pedro's 211. With virtually the same exact ERA.

Strikeouts....

Pedro's 1999 K/9: 13.2
MLB 1999 K/game: 6.41

Sale's 2018 K/9: 13.1
MLB 2018 K/game: 8.52

So when you contextualize the two pitchers, Pedro still grades out a good ways ahead. But still, it's pretty incredible what Sale is doing.

From 1997-2003, Pedro Martinez pitched in 201 games and started 199 of them. In 1408 ip, he had an era of 2.20, a FIP of 2.26 and an era+ of 213, better than anything Chris Sale has ever done. Pedro also had a WHIP of .940, a K/9 of 11.3, BB/9 of 2.0, and a HR/9 of 0.6. Chris Sale is awesome, but he's not Pedro. It just makes you realize just how otherworldly Pedro Martinez was. There have only been 40 seasons in the Majors where a pitcher had a 200+ era. Pedro averaged that for 7 years.


edit: Of course it's possible we haven't seen the best of Chris Sale.
 

Rasputin

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Well considering that peak Pedro is the greatest pitcher who ever lived, yes, for Sale to be reasonably compared to him is high praise indeed.

Keep in mind that these are the raw numbers - they aren't contextualized. This is an era in baseball that is lower scoring than it was in Pedro's prime, with a lot more strikeouts. So to compare...

Pedro's 2003 ERA: 2.22
Pedro's 2003 ERA+: 211

Sale's 2018 ERA: 2.23
Sale's 2018 ERA+: 194

I mean, 194 is still out of this world, but it's significantly worse than Pedro's 211. With virtually the same exact ERA.

Strikeouts....

Pedro's 1999 K/9: 13.2
MLB 1999 K/game: 6.41

Sale's 2018 K/9: 13.1
MLB 2018 K/game: 8.52

So when you contextualize the two pitchers, Pedro still grades out a good ways ahead. But still, it's pretty incredible what Sale is doing.
So he's almost but not quite almost as good as Pedro.

Still high praise.
 

Rasputin

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It doesn't get any higher, really.
It really doesn't. I've seen a lot of remarkable things, but I am not sure I have ever seen anyone do anything as well as Pedro pitched and I'm not sure I ever will.

I mean, the Sistine Chapel v the 17k game. The works of Shakespeare v making the entire league hit like Mike Benjamin in one of the most offensively-leaning eras the game has ever known.

He came out of the bullpen, hurt, and threw nothing but fastballs and they couldn't touch him.
 

BaseballJones

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It really doesn't. I've seen a lot of remarkable things, but I am not sure I have ever seen anyone do anything as well as Pedro pitched and I'm not sure I ever will.

I mean, the Sistine Chapel v the 17k game. The works of Shakespeare v making the entire league hit like Mike Benjamin in one of the most offensively-leaning eras the game has ever known.

He came out of the bullpen, hurt, and threw nothing but fastballs and they couldn't touch him.
Ras, he came out of the bullpen in the deciding game 5, on the road, against an all time great lineup, throwing nothing but 88-90 mph fastballs, and they couldn't touch him.

Peak Pedro was, simply put, the greatest of all time.

And my all time favorite athlete. :)
 

Rasputin

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Ras, he came out of the bullpen in the deciding game 5, on the road, against an all time great lineup, throwing nothing but 88-90 mph fastballs, and they couldn't touch him.

Peak Pedro was, simply put, the greatest of all time.

And my all time favorite athlete. :)
And who was it, Roberto Alomar who tried to disrupt his rhythm by stepping off to retie his shoes and Pedro just looks over, laughs, shakes his head, and demolishes the entire lineup for the rest of the game.

Honestly, if Pedro doesn't get hurt in Game 1, I think we at least get to the World Series, and maybe win it that year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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And who was it, Roberto Alomar who tried to disrupt his rhythm by stepping off to retie his shoes and Pedro just looks over, laughs, shakes his head, and demolishes the entire lineup for the rest of the game.

Honestly, if Pedro doesn't get hurt in Game 1, I think we at least get to the World Series, and maybe win it that year.
I'm not so sure about that. Are we're assuming that if he doesn't get hurt, he pitches deeper into game 1 and prevents the 2 runs that Lowe gave up in the 6th and they win that one? That the series never gets to Game 5 and Pedro starts game 1 of the ALCS?

I think even with a healthy Pedro starting Game 1, the Sox would have been hard pressed to beat the Yankees over seven games. The rotation beyond Pedro was held together with chewing gum and bailing wire, and couldn't muster a win in the four starts they did make in the ALCS. Healthy Pedro probably doesn't change that math.

But still, it would have been great to see him try.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I'm not so sure about that. Are we're assuming that if he doesn't get hurt, he pitches deeper into game 1 and prevents the 2 runs that Lowe gave up in the 6th and they win that one? That the series never gets to Game 5 and Pedro starts game 1 of the ALCS?

I think even with a healthy Pedro starting Game 1, the Sox would have been hard pressed to beat the Yankees over seven games. The rotation beyond Pedro was held together with chewing gum and bailing wire, and couldn't muster a win in the four starts they did make in the ALCS. Healthy Pedro probably doesn't change that math.

But still, it would have been great to see him try.
You never know.

Find me one person who thought DLowe would be invaluable to 2004 when the playoffs started. He wasn't even on the roster.

A healthy Pedro changes everything. I don't think it's an unreasonable stance.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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"When the playoffs started", or is reading comprehension that difficult when you'd rather attempt to nitpick?
So he was added during the first series? I think he's trying to correct you, not nitpick. Lowe was on the playoff roster from the jump. He wasn't in the rotation until the ALCS, but he was in the bullpen until then (which is how he came to be the winning pitcher in Game 3 of the LDS).
 

Adrian's Dome

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So he was added during the first series? I think he's trying to correct you, not nitpick. Lowe was on the playoff roster from the jump. He wasn't in the rotation until the ALCS, but he was in the bullpen until then (which is how he came to be the winning pitcher in Game 3 of the LDS).
Then that's my bad, and I apologize. I recalled him being off the playoff roster to begin, but I very certainly may have been mistaken and forgotten him being in the pen.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Yep, he was out of the rotation but was in the pen . . . .deep in the pen as a last resort, and came into game 3 in the 10th and got the win when he silenced the Angels' bats and then the Sox got two in the bottom of the inning on Ortiz's first walk off of the 2004 postseason
 

Deathofthebambino

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Any reason why EdRo was out so early? Pitch count seems fine. Please no injury!
Injury. Covering first base, Swihart threw it behind him, batter went into a headfirst slide, ERod tried to jump over him and came up a bit short, either hurting his right ankle or knee (same one he's had trouble with in the past).

Cora just said in the post-game "it's not good. He's moving around, but it's not good."
 

SouthernBoSox

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We might officially be in the starting pitcher market given the suddenly shocking lack of options with ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright out.
 

soxhop411

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We might officially be in the starting pitcher market given the suddenly shocking lack of options with ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright out.
Pass...

The starting pitching market (for rentals) is absolutely a dumpster fire.... All of the pitchers supposedly on the market have not had good showcases
 

Deathofthebambino

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I think we need to find a right handed starter regardless of whether or not ERod is hurt. The Yankees go into tonight 23-7 against lefties this year and the Astros are 16-9. At a minimum, we can't trot Price out there the day after Sale, have to put Porcello in between them, but I think the Sox really have to look into finding a righty that can get it done.

The problem, as Soxhop alluded to, is there just isn't anyone out there, and if someone better than say, Matt Harvey, comes available, we don't have the assets to go get them unless we're really ready to give up something of value. This team is awesome right now, but injury or not to ERod, there are serious concerns about whether or not the starting pitching is going to hold up in October against the teams we will likely be facing. I think it may make more sense to go after a couple studs for the bullpen, and if we need to go to the pen early in a game, hope that they can keep it close while our offense gets going.
 

grimshaw

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Tomase mentioned the right handed starter thing too which I think is silly. What if they don't even face the Yankees in the playoffs? And as far as I know, the jinx doesn't extend to Price for the Astros.

If they could magically get Tyson Ross or Michael Fulmer and somehow (unlikely) trump other teams offers while staying under the threshold, then sure, but beyond that I'd rather roll the dice with Price.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Tomase mentioned the right handed starter thing too which I think is silly. What if they don't even face the Yankees in the playoffs? And as far as I know, the jinx doesn't extend to Price for the Astros.

If they could magically get Tyson Ross or Michael Fulmer and somehow (unlikely) trump other teams offers while staying under the threshold, then sure, but beyond that I'd rather roll the dice with Price.
David Price's "jinx" extends to everyone in the post-season.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Yankees go into tonight 23-7 against lefties this year and the Astros are 16-9.
Yankees are just 4-3 against the Red Sox lefties (beat Price x2, Pomeranz and Rodriguez, lost to Sale x2 and Rodriguez) and the Astros are 2-1 (beat Sale and Pomeranz, lost to Price). Not sure how much stock I put in overall numbers against lefties...there are some shitty lefty starters in the league and the Yankees and Astros are damn good no matter who they face. I'm not so sure adding a right handed starter puts the Red Sox in a significantly better position versus either team, unless we're talking an upper echelon starter that the Sox in no way can afford.
 

rymflaherty

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The Yankees record given vs. lefties is insanely good, but as for the Astros, 16-9 comes out to a .640 winning percentage which is actually lower than their overall winning percentage. If my quick math is right, they are .658 vs. righties...so as others were getting at, these teams can hit anybody, so it’s likely less about righty/lefty and simply needing great pitching regardless.
 

Rasputin

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I'm not so sure about that. Are we're assuming that if he doesn't get hurt, he pitches deeper into game 1 and prevents the 2 runs that Lowe gave up in the 6th and they win that one? That the series never gets to Game 5 and Pedro starts game 1 of the ALCS?

I think even with a healthy Pedro starting Game 1, the Sox would have been hard pressed to beat the Yankees over seven games. The rotation beyond Pedro was held together with chewing gum and bailing wire, and couldn't muster a win in the four starts they did make in the ALCS. Healthy Pedro probably doesn't change that math.

But still, it would have been great to see him try.
It assumes the Sox win the series against Cleveland in four, and that in the LCS, the Sox win two Pedro starts and the Where is Roger game leaving just one game in four to win otherwise. It's not a guarantee, of course, but I'd like our chances. I mean, the Sox would essentially be up 3-0 in our hypothetical series and teams just don't come back from that..
 

oumbi

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Pass...

The starting pitching market (for rentals) is absolutely a dumpster fire.... All of the pitchers supposedly on the market have not had good showcases
How is Brian Johnson doing? To me, he and Hector were similar in their roles.
 
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