The Running Backs

dbn · Jul 30, 2015

I hope they keep Develin. I thought the running game was stronger when he was on the field.

Carmine Hose · Jul 30, 2015

Does Chandler being here change the formation and eliminate the need for the fullback?

bsj · Jul 30, 2015

I think james white gets the chance to have a key role

Super Nomario · Jul 30, 2015

Carmine Hose said:
Does Chandler being here change the formation and eliminate the need for the fullback?

They ran a lot of 2 TE last year, but still found some snaps for Develin (about 20-25% of the time).

Belichick went into the advantages of a fullback a few years ago:

[A]s far as your running gaps, I mean, you can put more width at the formation by having a [second tight end] on the line, whether it’s four on one side and two on the other side of the center or three and three. You just have a wider front, which there are some advantages to that. By having [a fullback] in the backfield, you can create that same four-man surface or three-man surface after the snap so the defense doesn’t know where the four-man surface or three-man surface is. The fullback has to – he can build that from the backfield. And then there are also, let’s say, a greater variety of blocking schemes with the fullback in the backfield because he can block different guys and come from different angles. He's not always behind the quarterback. He could be offset one way or the other and create different blocking schemes and angles that it’s harder to get from the line of scrimmage.

Also, depending on who your tight end is, it can be a little bit easier to pass protect seven men [with a fullback] because two of them are in the backfield instead of us having one in the backfield. And then when you start running guys up the middle in the gaps and things like that. I think fundamentally it’s a little easier to pick them up when you a have a guy in the backfield that can step up and block him from the fullback position as opposed to a tight end in the line of scrimmage who probably isn’t going to be able to loop back in and get him, so the line is probably all going to have to gap down or not gap down if the guy drops out and all that.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 30, 2015

I still hate the fact that we don't have anybody who can both run and catch the ball.

JerBear · Jul 30, 2015

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I still hate the fact that we don't have anybody who can both run and catch the ball.

Did we have that last year?

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 30, 2015

JerBear said:
Did we have that last year?

No, and I think it made us overly predictable on offense.

Super Nomario · Jul 30, 2015

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
No, and I think it made us overly predictable on offense.

The Patriots have never really had this under Belichick. There's always been one guy for pass-catching duties (Redmond / Faulk / Woodhead / Vereen) and a separate guy for toting the rock (Smith / Dillon / Maroney / Morris / Green-Ellis / Ridley / Blount / Gray). I don't know whether that's a function of roster construction (the two-way guys are rare and can be expensive) or tactics (mixing guys keeps them fresher and the skill sets / body types required are different).

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Jul 30, 2015

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I still hate the fact that we don't have anybody who can both run and catch the ball.

how many teams actually have that guy? I don't think they are all that prevalent.

Only four RB were in the top 100 players by receiving yards from last year

Bell
Forte
Fred Jackson
Helu

(Vereen, Lacy, Ellington, Sproles, Murray were just outside the top 100).

Point being guys that excel at both are pretty rare

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 30, 2015

Super Nomario said:
The Patriots have never really had this under Belichick. There's always been one guy for pass-catching duties (Redmond / Faulk / Woodhead / Vereen) and a separate guy for toting the rock (Smith / Dillon / Maroney / Morris / Green-Ellis / Ridley / Blount / Gray). I don't know whether that's a function of roster construction (the two-way guys are rare and can be expensive) or tactics (mixing guys keeps them fresher and the skill sets / body types required are different).

I agree that its been an ongoing pattern and clearly a deliberate set of choices. I'm just not so sure that its an optimal one, especially when you start going to extremes like last year when the "toting the rock" group (Blount, Gray, and Ridley) combined was targeted only 12 times and they largely stopped using Vereen in the running game down the stretch (averaged 3 carries per game in the last eight games, including playoffs).

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
how many teams actually have that guy? I don't think they are all that prevalent.

Only four RB were in the top 100 players by receiving yards from last year

Bell
Forte
Fred Jackson
Helu

(Vereen, Lacy, Ellington, Sproles, Murray were just outside the top 100).

Point being guys that excel at both are pretty rare

I don't think you need a guy that excels in both categories (being in the top 100 receivers is a very high bar, as evidenced by the fact that Vereen didn't make it). But I do think you ideally want guys who pose enough of a threat that it makes the defense's job harder. If you know that Blount will never catch the ball out of the backfield (and will almost always pass protect on passing plays), that makes it easier to design coverage and rushing schemes. And if you know that Vereen will almost never run and that his presence on the field means that its going to be a pass, that makes a defense's life easier too.

All these things represent tradeoffs and maybe this kind of predictability is acceptable if the personnel packages are achieving other goals. But ideally you'd like to have more balance.

bakahump · Jul 30, 2015

All part of Bills Long Con!

Super Nomario · Jul 30, 2015

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I agree that its been an ongoing pattern and clearly a deliberate set of choices. I'm just not so sure that its an optimal one, especially when you start going to extremes like last year when the "toting the rock" group (Blount, Gray, and Ridley) combined was targeted only 12 times and they largely stopped using Vereen in the running game down the stretch (averaged 3 carries per game in the last eight games, including playoffs).

I don't know. At times I probably would have agreed with you, but I recently had occasion for looking up Peyton Manning's history of running backs. Manning's teams have been the polar opposite of Brady's, as he's always had a two-way back who was the team's primary rusher and could catch passes, while Brady has always had separate backs for each duty. But Peyton's Colts mostly had terrible running games - they ranked 29th, 26th, 11th, 24th, 16th, 22nd, 32nd, 30th, 27th in YPC from 2002 - 2010 despite having former first-round picks at RB for that entire time period. That's not the whole picture, but I think we have to consider that you give up something trying to have a two-way threat.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I don't think you need a guy that excels in both categories (being in the top 100 receivers is a very high bar, as evidenced by the fact that Vereen didn't make it). But I do think you ideally want guys who pose enough of a threat that it makes the defense's job harder. If you know that Blount will never catch the ball out of the backfield (and will almost always pass protect on passing plays), that makes it easier to design coverage and rushing schemes. And if you know that Vereen will almost never run and that his presence on the field means that its going to be a pass, that makes a defense's life easier too.

All these things represent tradeoffs and maybe this kind of predictability is acceptable if the personnel packages are achieving other goals. But ideally you'd like to have more balance.

That's what constraint plays are for - play action passes and draws. Blount was on the field for 103 snaps last year per FO and rushed the ball 60 times, so that's a healthy amount of (presumably) pass plays he was on the field for (Ridley and Gray had similar ratios - 94/187 and 89/158, respectively). Vereen actually led the team in rushes last year with 96, so he ran the ball on ~16% of the 595 snaps he was on the field for. That sounds low, but keep in mind that a lot of his plays come in situations where circumstances dictated that the Pats were passing anyway; you're not keeping defenses honest against the run in the two-minute drill, or on 3rd-and-12.

I don't necessarily assume that the Patriots are nailing the run / pass personnel balance perfectly, but the ideal might be more "as specialized as you can get while keeping the defense honest" than "as balanced as you can get."

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 30, 2015

Super Nomario said:
I don't know. At times I probably would have agreed with you, but I recently had occasion for looking up Peyton Manning's history of running backs. Manning's teams have been the polar opposite of Brady's, as he's always had a two-way back who was the team's primary rusher and could catch passes, while Brady has always had separate backs for each duty. But Peyton's Colts mostly had terrible running games - they ranked 29th, 26th, 11th, 24th, 16th, 22nd, 32nd, 30th, 27th in YPC from 2002 - 2010 despite having former first-round picks at RB for that entire time period. That's not the whole picture, but I think we have to consider that you give up something trying to have a two-way threat.

That's what constraint plays are for - play action passes and draws. Blount was on the field for 103 snaps last year per FO and rushed the ball 60 times, so that's a healthy amount of (presumably) pass plays he was on the field for (Ridley and Gray had similar ratios - 94/187 and 89/158, respectively). Vereen actually led the team in rushes last year with 96, so he ran the ball on ~16% of the 595 snaps he was on the field for. That sounds low, but keep in mind that a lot of his plays come in situations where circumstances dictated that the Pats were passing anyway; you're not keeping defenses honest against the run in the two-minute drill, or on 3rd-and-12.

I don't necessarily assume that the Patriots are nailing the run / pass personnel balance perfectly, but the ideal might be more "as specialized as you can get while keeping the defense honest" than "as balanced as you can get."

I think that's a good way to look at it. However, I do think we got away from "keeping the defense honest" late in the year (Vereen's usage in the running game really fell off, which the aggregate yearly stats don't capture). I think White could give us somewhat better balance if he wins the third down back job. He ran the ball 644 times for a bruising team like Wisconsin so he's not a pure third down back by any means. But its hard to judge whether BB is ready to give him that job or not. I imagine he didn't get that many reps pass protecting in college and that improving his ability to diagnose and block rushers is likely a key issue right now.

Erik Hanson's Hook · Aug 13, 2015

Nice burst for a guy that weighs 225 lbs on that 55-yarder tonight. I'm ready for the Jonas Gray era to begin. Blount does nothing for me. He looks like he's running in sand. Yeah, I know he's had a few big games, but Jonas has proven he can do the same if given the chance to tote the rock.

To me, he brings more-than-adequate power, while providing quicker feet and better LOS push. I don't know about his pass blocking or catching, but it's not like Blount is a great pass blocker or threat out of the backfield, either.

Gray is my biggest binkie on the team. Please free him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b45rzwIBS_Y

Joe D Reid · Aug 14, 2015

MY NAME IS JONAS/
I'M CARRYING THE ROCK/
THANKS FOR ALL YOU'VE SHOWN US/
PARTICULARLY YOUR C--K

lambeau · Sep 6, 2015

Who knew Cadet, Lewis, and White would all make it? (But then who knew Lewis had 3260 all purpose yards in 2 yrs at Pitt to McCoy's 3360?)
http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2011/6/3/2204631/their-stats-at-pitt-lesean-mccoy-and-dion-lewis

Vereen was the featured back last year--more snaps than the others combined--but was last in the league in rushing among featured backs.
As well as that worked out, I suspect they want more multipurpose backs. White rushed for 4,000 yards at Wisconsin.
I think the hope is we lose nothing in the passing game, and add a little unpredictability. Should be interesting.

Papelbon's Poutine · Sep 6, 2015

Monte Ball cut. Any interest? I'm not familiar enough with him.

Just a bit outside · Sep 6, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Monte Ball cut. Any interest? I'm not familiar enough with him. [/quote
He has been awful. No burst or ability to break tackles.

Papelbon's Poutine · Sep 6, 2015

Noted.

Koufax · Sep 14, 2015

Jonas Gray cut by Miami today with little fanfare. The SI curse continues to haunt him.

GeorgeCostanza · Sep 14, 2015

Koufax said:
Jonas Gray cut by Miami today with little fanfare. The SI curse continues to haunt him.

Wow. So what is his deal? Massive head case? One hit wonder fluke of a game? Mix of both?

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