If the Boston Red Sox plan on spending less that 230 million dollars in 2024 than zero of those dollars will be mine. I will neither purchase NESN or attend Fenway Park. I'm not paying for prime rib and getting mediocrity instead.
If they start winning, you may not show up but a lot of other folks absolutely will. They know this. I would love a look at their data on the fanbase.If the Boston Red Sox plan on spending less that 230 million dollars in 2024 than zero of those dollars will be mine. I will neither purchase NESN or attend Fenway Park. I'm not paying for prime rib and getting mediocrity instead.
Probably depends on just how much winning. Get off to a 2018-like start and sure, the park will be full and tickets will be in demand.If they start winning, you may not show up but a lot of other folks absolutely will. They know this. I would love a look at their data on the fanbase.
I’m guessing it took the Sox longer than most teams to see their attendance recover from COVID.Think so? They drew more last year than 2022 without doing more actual winning.
They drew ~1% more when overall ratings were up 7% across the league. Its apples and oranges I admit (attendance to ratings) but if we assume the pace of play bump, you could argue they dropped share again.Think so? They drew more last year than 2022 without doing more actual winning.
Good question, and I imagine plenty of ticket counting/accounting chicanery regardless. I guess what I assume is the same chicanery as last year : )Is that tickets sold or actual people who attended? There were a lot of games last year when the reported attendance seemed a bit higher than it looked.
Fair.Sure, it's impossible to know exactly how covid affects the big picture, but 2022 and 2023 being so close (2.625m vs 2.672) seems stable for now.
Looking over at BRef, I'm finding the Sox were up 1.8% last year compared to 2022, while MLB overall was up 9.6% from 2022. So while the Sox were holding more or less steady, the sport overall had a bigger bounce. It does seem fair to guess that was a fan response to the quality of the team (both in 2022 and 2023 — often attendance lags the team performance a little).They drew ~1% more when overall ratings were up 7% across the league. Its apples and oranges I admit (attendance to ratings) but if we assume the pace of play bump, you could argue they dropped share again.
I hope there are many who feel the same as you.If the Boston Red Sox plan on spending less that 230 million dollars in 2024 than zero of those dollars will be mine. I will neither purchase NESN or attend Fenway Park. I'm not paying for prime rib and getting mediocrity instead.
The other thing, which is impossible to quantify, is that many of those fans weren’t Red Sox fans. When I went to Sox/Orioles in Sep, it was Baltimore North. So, attendance stats may look ok but I would guess that the % of Sox fans at these games declined.Looking over at BRef, I'm finding the Sox were up 1.8% last year compared to 2022, while MLB overall was up 9.6% from 2022. So while the Sox were holding more or less steady, the sport overall had a bigger bounce. It does seem fair to guess that was a fan response to the quality of the team (both in 2022 and 2023 — often attendance lags the team performance a little).
I’ll grant that it’s absolutely not something to bank on, but does a bullpen as strong as Boston’s is likely to be give them a realistic chance to outperform their Pythag? If I remember correctly, the Orioles were able to greatly outperform theirs last year on the backs of their wipeout bullpen.Wild Card you are going to need to be 87-90 win range. Right now, Red Sox are in 80-83 win range. Snell or Montgomery gets you about 82-86 win range. It is going to be really hard at this point for this team not to get 5th in the division again.
Edit - We are talking about grabbing the last wild card here as well. This team is no where near where you need to be to make a long run for the World Series.
Do you feel like fans of other teams are appearing in Fenway at a different rate?The other thing, which is impossible to quantify, is that many of those fans weren’t Red Sox fans. When I went to Sox/Orioles in Sep, it was Baltimore North. So, attendance stats may look ok but I would guess that the % of Sox fans at these games declined.
Fortunately for ownership, Boston and Fenway in Sep will always be a great trip.
Thanks for diving deeper as this is even rougher than I thought. The tide rose 10 points(!) and the Sox less than 2%…if I’m an owner I feel like my attendance dropped 8 points due to whatever my management was doing.Looking over at BRef, I'm finding the Sox were up 1.8% last year compared to 2022, while MLB overall was up 9.6% from 2022. So while the Sox were holding more or less steady, the sport overall had a bigger bounce. It does seem fair to guess that was a fan response to the quality of the team (both in 2022 and 2023 — often attendance lags the team performance a little).
I live out of state so not the best authority here. Would be curious to hear from those who go more regularly. I’m assuming my experience was largely due to the Sox being out of it and the Orioles being on their way to the playoffs. Secondary market makes it easy for home fans to unload tickets.Do you feel like fans of other teams are appearing in Fenway at a different rate?
It does to me, but I don’t go to actual games so I might be influenced more by the story lines and coverage.
Is it really strong? The bullpen was pretty average last year. It's real strength is possibly the top end (though Jansen is rather average closer). I don't think it is a bullpen that is going to give you a huge edge.I’ll grant that it’s absolutely not something to bank on, but does a bullpen as strong as Boston’s is likely to be give them a realistic chance to outperform their Pythag? If I remember correctly, the Orioles were able to greatly outperform theirs last year on the backs of their wipeout bullpen.
This is the exact reason why ownership is thrilled with their decisions. People keep buying stuff and showing up to see a bad team with one flawed superstar (Devers). The fanbase is loyal/big enough that they will always get people to show up - even in down years, tickets may be more affordable to those who are priced out when the team is doing well. Or visitors. If people are already coming to the stadium and buying the stuff, why would ownership feel inclined to invest more? I personally maintain that FSG has other considerations (upcoming NBA team, the Pens, whatever they are doing with Liverpool) that the Sox just are not a priority, especially when they reliably print money.In terms of merchandise, in 2022 the Sox were 3rd at 479 million - So people keep buying stuff.
https://mlbrun.com/mlb-merchandise-sales-team
In terms of player jersey sales the Sox did not have a player in the top 20.
https://sports.yahoo.com/20-best-selling-mlb-jerseys-204845265.html
With the caveats that I'm not claiming it as fact and I don't have a lot of time to dig too deep right now, it has seemed to me that predicting future bullpen performance is very tricky regardless of the years prior, though I agree that Boston was just pretty much good to OK last year.Is it really strong? The bullpen was pretty average last year. It's real strength is possibly the top end (though Jansen is rather average closer). I don't think it is a bullpen that is going to give you a huge edge.
Agree with this. And I have to imagine that bullpen performance is very context dependent.With the caveats that I'm not claiming it as fact and I don't have a lot of time to dig too deep right now, it has seemed to me that predicting future bullpen performance is very tricky regardless of the years prior, though I agree that Boston was just pretty much good to OK last year.
There seems to be so much variance in individual reliever performance from year to year and so much turnover that even a seemingly well put together pen may not hit/click. I'm pretty sure I've seen some data around here somewhere on that, but I could be mistaken. From my chair it just seems that even if one believes the pen was anywhere from awful to great last year, it might not be all that predictive. Year to year, the bullpen just seems to be the hardest thing to get right for a lot of teams.
In the case of the Sox this year, I'm hopeful that with Breslow and Bailey, they can increase the odds that any variance is in the right direction.
I agree with this so incredibly strongly, that it can't be +1'ed enough.With the caveats that I'm not claiming it as fact and I don't have a lot of time to dig too deep right now, it has seemed to me that predicting future bullpen performance is very tricky regardless of the years prior, though I agree that Boston was just pretty much good to OK last year.
There seems to be so much variance in individual reliever performance from year to year and so much turnover that even a seemingly well put together pen may not hit/click. I'm pretty sure I've seen some data around here somewhere on that, but I could be mistaken. From my chair it just seems that even if one believes the pen was anywhere from awful to great last year, it might not be all that predictive. Year to year, the bullpen just seems to be the hardest thing to get right for a lot of teams.
In the case of the Sox this year, I'm hopeful that with Breslow and Bailey, they can increase the odds that any variance is in the right direction.
But there was also speculation that the poor attendance for the Yankee series at Fenway in September, and the bargain basement prices for the tickets to those games on the resale market, was sort of the last straw before Bloom was fired.The other thing, which is impossible to quantify, is that many of those fans weren’t Red Sox fans. When I went to Sox/Orioles in Sep, it was Baltimore North. So, attendance stats may look ok but I would guess that the % of Sox fans at these games declined.
Fortunately for ownership, Boston and Fenway in Sep will always be a great trip.
Through the beginning of August, the bullpen was 4th in baseball with 4.6 fWAR. Then we killed them all with the August openers gambit and the parade of cast-offs made sure we finished the season average overall. 0.3 fWAR over the last 2 months and most of that was heroics from Martin and Winck rescuing them from negative numbers.Is it really strong? The bullpen was pretty average last year. It's real strength is possibly the top end (though Jansen is rather average closer). I don't think it is a bullpen that is going to give you a huge edge.
I've been a weekend season ticket holder for 25 years and up until around 2017 I knew or could recognize just about all the other season ticket holders around me. Everyone attended enough games to be familiar. But slowly the park started to be filled with visiting fans and it's accelerated even more in recent years. I was in a new section for the last few seasons and saw almost nobody who appeared to be regulars on a game to game basis.Do you feel like fans of other teams are appearing in Fenway at a different rate?
It does to me, but I don’t go to actual games so I might be influenced more by the story lines and coverage.
Seemed to me the bullpen was really strong last year until the injuries to rotation forced them to be completely decimated by the endless bullpen games. Closer to normal injury luck (no guarantee there) and God forbid adding another starter should really help that same scenario not playing out all over again.Is it really strong? The bullpen was pretty average last year. It's real strength is possibly the top end (though Jansen is rather average closer). I don't think it is a bullpen that is going to give you a huge edge.
I meant to add this as you are spot on. Middle relievers is a bit of a craps shoot. Logically it makes sense. It is the worst pitchers on your roster or unknowns. Generally people try to avoid moving prospects to the bullpen until they are shown they can't start or there isn't a spot for them.With the caveats that I'm not claiming it as fact and I don't have a lot of time to dig too deep right now, it has seemed to me that predicting future bullpen performance is very tricky regardless of the years prior, though I agree that Boston was just pretty much good to OK last year.
There seems to be so much variance in individual reliever performance from year to year and so much turnover that even a seemingly well put together pen may not hit/click. I'm pretty sure I've seen some data around here somewhere on that, but I could be mistaken. From my chair it just seems that even if one believes the pen was anywhere from awful to great last year, it might not be all that predictive. Year to year, the bullpen just seems to be the hardest thing to get right for a lot of teams.
In the case of the Sox this year, I'm hopeful that with Breslow and Bailey, they can increase the odds that any variance is in the right direction.
I think "No/Yes" is probably the closest to where I'd be. The answer to the first seems clearly to be no.If they went over and fielded a shitty team and hamstrung the roster with overpriced FA's they'd have to staple to young talent to clear. . .would you be unreflectively approving?
If they stayed under and fielded a competitive 2024 team that was in the mix for the post-season, would you condemn them?
I think there are some here who are in a "No/Yes" combo.