The Rebuild

[BaseballJones]

Ok what's done is done. You can't undo 2020-2022, nor can you undo what the team is in 2023 (though I'm sure they're working on ways to improve this season). So those are sunk costs. Can't go back and change the past.

Starting from HERE, this team is definitely in a rebuild. We all realize that they aren't just a single player away from being a championship contender again. There's a LOT of work that needs to be done. So let's take some stock of the situation and try to be reasonable about the process moving forward.

First off, some financials. According to Spotrac, the Pats have $80 million in free cap space for 2024. But that includes, when you look at the Pats' team page on Spotrac, JC Jackson's $14m for 2024, which they will undoubtedly redo, or just cut him at no cost. So really it looks like they have about $94 million. And they have 42 players under contract for 2024 (again, counting Jackson). Here are some guys they can cut with relatively little dead cap hit:

Jackson - $14.4m, $0 dead cap hit in 2024
Godchaux - $11.7m, $3.5m dead cap hit in 2024
Andrews - $7.4m, $1.9m dead cap hit in 2024
Wise - $7.2m, $2.2m dead cap hit in 2024
Phillips - $4.2m, $1.2m dead cap hit in 2024
Guy - $3.2m, $250k dead cap hit in 2024
Jonathan Jones - $12.8m, $7.8m dead cap hit in 2024
Judon - $15.4m, $10.3m dead cap hit in 2024

There's smaller ones too, but there's definitely places the Pats can get even more $$ available if they want/need it.

Second (and we will get much more into this in subsequent posts), here's where the Pats currently rank in the NFL.

Offense:
- #32 points (11.0 points per game)
- #26 yards (287.4 yards per game)

Defense:
- #25 points (26.2 points per game)
- #8 yards (298.4 yards per game)

Now clearly the points per game is massively impacted by the horrific performance by the offense. NE has given up 3 scores directly on turnovers - a FR for a TD and two pick sixes. That's 21 points right there. And then there have been many short fields the offense has given the defense to deal with, PLUS they don't possess the ball long so the D always seems to be on the field. Just looking at the 21 direct points, if you take those away, NE's defense is allowing 22.0 points a game, which is much more reasonable.

But man, that offense. It's the worst offense so far that I can ever remember - and I've been a fan since the mid-70s. The previous worst was in 1990 when they went 1-15 and averaged 11.3 points a game. So this year's offense is even worse than the 1-15 worst offense in the NFL.

At present, NE is ranked:

#31 in passer rating (72.1)
#30 in pass yards per attempt (5.8)
#29 in rush yards per attempt (3.3)
#25 in total rush yards (419)
#32 in total touchdowns scored (6)
#31 in % of drives ending in a score (20.8%)
#31 in offensive expected points (-46.71)
#28 in 3rd down conversions (32.9%)
#32 in field goal % made (50.0%)
#26 in punt average (43.9)
#26 in punt net average (38.9)

So they can't run the ball at all. They can't throw the ball at all. They can't score. Amazingly enough, they're #10 in the NFL in red zone conversion percentage (62.5%), but they are #31 in actual red zone attempts (8). Think about that. In 5 games, they've been in the red zone EIGHT times. 1.6 times per game. In contrast, SF has been in the RZ 23 times in 5 games (4.6 per game) and has converted 69.6% of those. Night and day from the Pats.

Ok, I'll stop here. This is just a gigantic pile of suck and it's dragging me down on a Monday morning. I'll get back to this later.

 

[rodderick]

Ok what's done is done. You can't undo 2020-2022, nor can you undo what the team is in 2023 (though I'm sure they're working on ways to improve this season). So those are sunk costs. Can't go back and change the past.

Starting from HERE, this team is definitely in a rebuild. We all realize that they aren't just a single player away from being a championship contender again. There's a LOT of work that needs to be done. So let's take some stock of the situation and try to be reasonable about the process moving forward.

First off, some financials. According to Spotrac, the Pats have $80 million in free cap space for 2024. But that includes, when you look at the Pats' team page on Spotrac, JC Jackson's $14m for 2024, which they will undoubtedly redo, or just cut him at no cost. So really it looks like they have about $94 million. And they have 42 players under contract for 2024 (again, counting Jackson). Here are some guys they can cut with relatively little dead cap hit:

Jackson - $14.4m, $0 dead cap hit in 2024
Godchaux - $11.7m, $3.5m dead cap hit in 2024
Andrews - $7.4m, $1.9m dead cap hit in 2024
Wise - $7.2m, $2.2m dead cap hit in 2024
Phillips - $4.2m, $1.2m dead cap hit in 2024
Guy - $3.2m, $250k dead cap hit in 2024
Jonathan Jones - $12.8m, $7.8m dead cap hit in 2024
Judon - $15.4m, $10.3m dead cap hit in 2024

I'd 100% cut the bolded. Maybe Andrews as well if this is what he is now, kinda looks done to me and not worthy of that salary plus they drafted his replacement in the 4th round. That's a ton of money to play around with, but with a ton of holes to plug as well. To me they go into next offseason needing a QB, a LT, a RG, a RT, at least two starting level WRs, two TEs and at least one 3rd down RB (maybe also a traditional RB) on offense considering all of their FAs. And honestly, as I mentioned earlier there's a scenario in which center is a need and the only reason I didn't put LG as one is because I want to sink or swim with Strange and would hate to spend more resources at that spot, but I don't think he'd be an above average starter either. We're talking a full on offensive rebuild to an extent that's pretty rare to see in this league.

 

[tims4wins]

I’d go a step further and cut them all save Jon Jones and Judon.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd 100% cut the bolded. Maybe Andrews as well if this is what he is now, kinda looks done to me and not worthy of that salary plus they drafted his replacement in the 4th round. That's a ton of money to play around with, but with a ton of holes to plug as well. To me they go into next offseason needing a QB, a LT, a RG, a RT, at least two starting level WRs, two TEs and at least one 3rd down RB (maybe also a traditional RB) on offense considering all of their FAs. And honestly, as I mentioned earlier there's a scenario in which center is a need and the only reason I didn't put LG as one is because I want to sink or swim with Strange and would hate to spend more resources at that spot, but I don't think he'd be an above average starter either. We're talking a full on offensive rebuild to an extent that's pretty rare to see in this league.

I agree. Your moves would open up another $28m in cap space, though, of course, it would also mean they have four more holes to fill on the roster. But I think they could go with youth (like Sam Roberts) or cheap vets (like Trey Flowers) and be basically just as good. But I've seen nothing from Godchaux that tells me he's worth this kind of $$, and even if he IS, I'd go with other players and use the cost savings to upgrade the bigger area of need - offense.

 

[Harry Hooper]

I believe after yesterday the Pats are 3-9 in their last dozen regular season games.

It would be nice to see them add a legit 3rd-down back (even this season via street FA or minor trade for guy on someone's bench), but it won't really help if that player has to stay in and block with a collapsing OL all the time. To the extent he has one, is Strange's future at C?

I’d go a step further and cut them all save Jon Jones and Judon.

Seems about right, as long as J.Jones gets healthy and back up to 100% speed.

 

[rodderick]

I’d go a step further and cut them all save Jon Jones and Judon.

Wise to me is still a good player, I think he's been one of their best performers the past 3 years.

 

[tims4wins]

Wise to me is still a good player, I think he's been one of their best performers the past 3 years.

I’m indifferent. Agree that he’s good but far from a difference maker. And he’ll be 30.

 

[rodderick]

I’m indifferent. Agree that he’s good but far from a difference maker. And he’ll be 30.

Sure, but for 5 million in savings I'm keeping him. That's Riley Reiff money. Wise, Judon, White under contract means DE is solid and you only add a starter if a good opportunity presents itself in FA or high in the draft. Wouldn't want to turn that into a need.

 

[8slim]

How do we square having all of this money available for the offseason with the notion that a team can't totally rebuild via free agency?

Are we trying to do offseason 2021 again, but better this time?

Obviously we have the money and it needs to be invested wisely, but what's the strategy here?

 

[BigSoxFan]

How do we square having all of this money available for the offseason with the notion that a team can't totally rebuild via free agency?

Are we trying to do offseason 2021 again, but better this time?

Obviously we have the money and it needs to be invested wisely, but what's the strategy here?

The other thing is I was looking at the early 2024 FA list and there is very little with respect to OL. I'll be very curious to see how this pathetic unit gets upgrade for next year. I feel like we need to pay for a top WR in FA (Higgins would be my choice) and defense and use the draft to go after OL and QB.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

What does a typical rebuild in the NFL look like? What is a reasonable expectation for the current situation?

 

[IdiotKicker]

What does a typical rebuild in the NFL look like? What is a reasonable expectation for the current situation?

NFL rebuilds are fast. If you're good at it, it's a 2-3 year process.

 

[PRabbit]

According to Tankathon, NE currently has the 5th pick. Unless we can get the 2-3 kids at the top (Williams, Harrison Jr, maybe Drake), do we just trade down?

Because it's clear we need help EVERYWHERE on offense.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

This really feels like a multi-year process — two at least — that requires real planning and strategy and not just year-to-year spending to the cap. Maybe start now with the trade deadline. But I think this really needs to be a coordinated, planned approach, and might also involve something the Patriots just don’t do — managing fans’ expectations. As angry as we are, this team, owner and coach would get a ton of leeway if they gave a little of the blueprint.

 

[LoLsapien]

In a traditional tear-it-down-to-the-studs rebuild you'd probably trade guys like judon for draft picks. I assume we're not expecting to compete in the next few years. So I'd trade our useful vets for picks, and use some chunk of our cap space to take on other team's uncuttable largesse for more picks.

Keep a guy like Mac or some fungible veteran to get destroyed behind our non-existent Oline while our stud rookie/sophomore/junior QB holds a clipboard.

In the meantime, I make a deal with Marc Davis to bring McDaniels back to the Patriots. Davis can't afford to cut him, and we need an OC (and if BB retires, a coach) so I think it could work out for both parties. If Bill retires,try to bring in a GM from the 9ers org. Ideally not the guy who decided to trade all the picks for Lance.

 

[rodderick]

It's only necessarily a multi year, long term process if you don't hit with your QB pick. If you get A GUY at the top of the draft you can contend in year 2 or even year 1 if you plays your cards right.

 

[BigSoxFan]

According to Tankathon, NE currently has the 5th pick. Unless we can get the 2-3 kids at the top (Williams, Harrison Jr, maybe Drake), do we just trade down?

Because it's clear we need help EVERYWHERE on offense.

It'll be a very interesting situation. The OL is a disaster and this draft has a couple OT who should go in the top 10 in Fashanu (Penn State), Alt (ND), and Latham (Alabama). I don't think Caleb Williams will escape Chicago's clutch but Drake Maye may be available at our pick or with a trade up. Of course, trading up will cost additional draft capital so you'd have to be very certain about him being your guy. Then, you have a bunch of really interesting pass catchers like Bowers at TE, Egbuka, Nabers, etc. at WR. Maybe even Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

I'm feeling far less inclined to trade down this year even if we need the draft capital. This team needs to start adding elite talent and the need basically exists everywhere outside of the secondary.

 

[Average Game James]

The bad news is the 2024 class of free agents on offense looks pretty unexciting.

O-line is terrible. Trent Brown actually looks like one of the better UFAs at tackle.

At WR you have probably Evans and Tee Higgins hitting the market (I'm assuming Ridley and Pittman are re-signed or tagged), but in addition to paying one of them something like $22-24mn annually, you also need to convince them to come catch passes from Mac Jones or TBD rookie/vet retread QB throwing from behind a question mark OL. I know dollars are what drive the decision at the end of the day, but I have to think the Pats are at a disadvantage trying to sign one of those guys if there are other offers at comparable money. The level below that is largely #2/#3 guys and the Pats already have several of those guys. Maybe a Gabe Davis or Darnell Mooney or someone of that ilk could at least bring some ability to get open deep? Like, hope for a better version of Agholor?

Hunter Henry is probably the best free agent at TE. Maybe Dalton Schultz brings a bit more as a blocker, but he's not the same level of receiver. Best case, looking at a lateral move.

 

[DJnVa]

According to Tankathon, NE currently has the 5th pick. Unless we can get the 2-3 kids at the top (Williams, Harrison Jr, maybe Drake), do we just trade down?

Because it's clear we need help EVERYWHERE on offense.

Depends on how they would feel about Penix, McCarthy, or possibly Sanders and what the teams behind you might need.

 

[moondog80]

In 2020 the 49ers were 6-10 and the Eagles were 4-11-1. It can happen fast.

 

[astrozombie]

NFL rebuilds are fast. If you're good at it, it's a 2-3 year process.

Sadly, I do not trust BB to be the person to do that. FA misses, draft misses/reaches, playing people out of position... I have lost faith in BB being able to build a team.
What I would prefer to see is the Pats trade their (theoretical) #5 pick back into the middle of the first round, pick up a stud DE/OL/WR/LB/playmaker there and then work on building the lines (esp the offensive line) out. I am fine waiting a year or two for a QB prospect and then having them hold the clipboard for a year. Let Mac finish out his time with the Pats, get a stopgap veteran QB that a rookie QB can learn behind and hopefully get another year to identify and correct team deficiencies before throwing that QB in again. This is the 3 year process I wish they had started years ago, but here we are.
That said, when BB trades #5 for a second round pick and a future third, then reaches in the second round for an undersized CB that he wants to convert to safety, I will not be shocked at all.

 

[Average Game James]

PFF mock draft simulator is obviously drunk, but that would sure be a good start...

 

[Arroyoyo]

Seeing all of your comments about who will be available in FA, it looks like teams have gotten a lot better about locking up their own top talent long-term and all NFL FA is these days is a way to overpay for average to slightly-above-average talent.

That’s no way to rebuild. Sans a generational QB, you’ll likely end up somewhere between 10-7 and 6-11 for several more years. Kraft might as well keep his wallet closed and trade every player you can for picks in next year’s draft. Accumulate as much draft capital as possible, then leading up to the draft repackage that capital into as many 2-4th round picks as possible.

Draft BPA’s and/or look into trading for disgruntled top talent on other teams (that fill the Pats’ roster holes) that are looking for contract extensions.

Just don’t go out and reset the market at various positions only to end up with another round of decent-but-not-needle-moving talent.

 

[8slim]

Unless he experiences a remarkable turnaround over the next couple months, I can't see any way you roll Mac out again as a starting QB in 2024. You gotta bring in a mediocre vet to take the helm, ideally with a top-line draftee waiting in the wings.

We got so much cap space, we can afford to overpay a vet to come here and lose for a year.

 

[Dollar]

In 2020 the 49ers were 6-10 and the Eagles were 4-11-1. It can happen fast.

Not sure the 49ers are the best point of comparison. In 2020 they were coming off a 13-3 season and Super Bowl appearance, and they started 4-3 before Jimmy G got hurt right after the 33-6 destruction of the Patriots in Foxboro. They were likely poised for another solid year.

 

[nolasoxfan]

It'll be a very interesting situation. The OL is a disaster and this draft has a couple OT who should go in the top 10 in Fashanu (Penn State), Alt (ND), and Latham (Alabama). I don't think Caleb Williams will escape Chicago's clutch but Drake Maye may be available at our pick or with a trade up. Of course, trading up will cost additional draft capital so you'd have to be very certain about him being your guy. Then, you have a bunch of really interesting pass catchers like Bowers at TE, Egbuka, Nabers, etc. at WR. Maybe even Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

I'm feeling far less inclined to trade down this year even if we need the draft capital. This team needs to start adding elite talent and the need basically exists everywhere outside of the secondary.

I would be thrilled with either one of Maye or Bowers, but what do I know?

Edit: I also think we'll be picking higher than #5, but, again, what do I know?

 

[rmurph3]

I am fine waiting a year or two for a QB prospect and then having them hold the clipboard for a year. Let Mac finish out his time with the Pats, get a stopgap veteran QB that a rookie QB can learn behind and hopefully get another year to identify and correct team deficiencies before throwing that QB in again. This is the 3 year process I wish they had started years ago, but here we are.

I'm just a casual fan, but isn't the bolded an anachronism from a bygone era? First-round QBs just don't hold the clipboard anymore, at least not when there's an immediate need at the position for the franchise (ie Jordan Love behind Rodgers isn't really analogous to the Pats situation). The Steelers tried this with Kenny Pickett last year and it lasted what, a month? You throw them in and let them figure it out on the fly. Admittedly, you wouldn't necessarily want to do that behind THIS offensive line, so that's got to be a priority. But as noted, there are at least reesources available to address that.

 

[moondog80]

Not sure the 49ers are the best point of comparison. In 2020 they were coming off a 13-3 season and Super Bowl appearance, and they started 4-3 before Jimmy G got hurt right after the 33-6 destruction of the Patriots in Foxboro. They were likely poised for another solid year.

Fair, but two weeks ago the Pats were 1-2 with the two losses both close ones against two of the best teams in the NFL. With a D that looked stellar and an offense that showed that it could maybe be adequate, it was easy to see a solid year from them too. Then their two best defenders were lost for the season and Mac the offense completely fell off a cliff, and here we are.

 

[Toe Nash]

It's only necessarily a multi year, long term process if you don't hit with your QB pick. If you get A GUY at the top of the draft you can contend in year 2 or even year 1 if you plays your cards right.

Maybe with a team that has a few good pieces to build around but I don't think that's true with this team. They need to basically replace everyone on the offensive side of the ball. It would take a perfect offseason.

SMU_Sox had it right in the another thread that this should be looked at as a multiyear process, but that can mean 2-3 years and not 5 if you do a good job. Maybe you're not top of the league by year 3 but you are on the way up and you know what missing pieces you still have. And if you build a good line and get a playmaking receiver you can be still decent with a lesser QB.

So that means you try to maximize your draft pick assets for the next 2-3 years, and make any FA signings with an eye towards not really competing in 2024-25.

Here's what I'd look to do:

• Get whatever you can for expiring assets before the trade deadline this season, probably not much but maybe someone wants Dugger (I'd think about re-signing him on a short deal though as well).
• If I were in the top 5 but not top 2, or if I got pick #2 but didn't have a "can't miss" grade on Maye (assuming Williams is #1), I'd think about trading down, trying to add a stud offensive tackle later in the first round and adding hopefully a first rounder next year. or multiple good picks. Someone like Chicago or NYJ may go nuts for Maye and really give you a haul that lets you rebuild your whole offense.
• If I stand pat in the top 5 I'm looking again for a stud tackle or Marvin Harrison Jr (I don't know enough about the draft to know what tackles are available, looks like Fashanu from Penn State is the top on lists).
• Make sure whatever is messed up about your scouting gets fixed. This is a bigger question about who is GM that is above my pay grade. But, you can't afford to miss on any picks and you need to figure out whatever process led you to get a Joe Thuney in round 3 and not a Cole Strange or Yodny Cajuste. If they get a stud tackle in the first and can add starting interior linemen outside of the first round you can see the line getting fixed pretty quickly.
• Fix your coaching staff too. That's going to be really important for any of the young guys. Again, see last bullet about who is running the team.

I wouldn't freak out about a QB, obviously you need one but the problems are much deeper. Honestly my priority this first offseason unless I end up with #1 overall is the offensive line and with all the cap space and likely high pick they should be able to improve that to average in one offseason (if you can't do that you have no business rebuilding the team). Then next year maybe you give Mac another shot and don't expect to make the playoffs but at least he won't be Brian Hoyer level and you see what happens.

I'm not too worried about the defense, they have some good pieces and Gonzalez is a star, if they keep Mayo around they seem to be decently coached, plus defense is not as important in today's NFL.

 

[DJnVa]

Houston won 4, 4, then 3 games last year. Already 2-3 this season and seem on the up.

 

[DanoooME]

So that means you try to maximize your draft pick assets for the next 2-3 years, and make any FA signings with an eye towards not really competing in 2024-25.

Here's what I'd look to do:

• Get whatever you can for expiring assets before the trade deadline this season, probably not much but maybe someone wants Dugger (I'd think about re-signing him on a short deal though as well)

One of the things to consider to improve draft pick assets involves FA. I'm sure you guys know this already, since BB has taken great advantage of it over the years, but those comp picks could be key. Depending on who BB is going to let go, trading them for low round picks is less valuable that letting them leave and taking comp picks for them. The other half of that is then not being able to sign many/any FA and end up scraping the bottom of the barrel after comp picks are locked in. It might be worth taking a year off from FA, pocketing a bunch of comp picks on top of what they'd get in the 2024 draft and plan for a big 2025 draft and rolling over a shit-ton of cap space to augment a youth movement. It seems to be the approach that Chicago and maybe Cleveland have been trying, although they completely suck at it, so it's something that BB could do if he has the patience and desire to do.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Breer interviews some (unnamed) NFC coaches/GMs about the Patriots' problems for today's column. It isn't pretty

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/09/nfl-week-5-takeaways-patriots-have-no-talent

 

[BigSoxFan]

I would be thrilled with either one of Maye or Bowers, but what do I know?

Edit: I also think we'll be picking higher than #5, but, again, what do I know?

Bowers is awesome. I really like him. You get him and add Tee Higgins in FA and you've completely changed the ceiling of your offensive skill position guys. The problem, of course, is that you need someone to throw them the ball and you need 5 guys to block for that someone. Bowers feels like he'd be a perfect pick for a team like Arizona with 2 potential top 10 picks and a QB already in place (assuming they stick with Kyler Murray).

 

[rodderick]

Breer interviews some (unnamed) NFC coaches/GMs about the Patriots' problems for today's column. It isn't pretty

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/09/nfl-week-5-takeaways-patriots-have-no-talent

I mean, it's as succinct as one could put it, honestly.

 

[Garshaparra]

Rebuilds require skill (drafting good players at positions of need) and luck (keeping them healthy). The current poster boys for a successful rebuild would be Detroit. 3-13-1 in 2021, 9-8 in 2022, 4-1 so far this year and look to be the class of their division, and a top NFC team. How did they do it? Let's start with their drafts since 2020, with current starters bolded:

2020: Last year of the Patricia-lead team. A lot of bad work here:

1 Jeff Okudah CB - Traded to ATL for a 5th round pick. Yikes
2 D'Andre Swift RB - Traded to PHI for a 4th round pick...in 2025. Double yikes.
3 Julian Okwara DE - Still with DET, good when healthy.
3 Jonah Jackson G - Still with DET, very good when healthy (consistent starter, PB in '21)

All the rest of their picks have washed out of the league. Jackson is their most important player from this draft, as an above average OL starter. As always, Matt Patricia sucks.

2021: Dan Campbell and Co come in. Tons of losses early, but start to show signs of life towards the end of the year. Some good, important picks.

1 Penei Sewell OT - Still with DET, very good. Consistent starter, PB in '22.
2 Levi Onwuzurike DL - Still with DET, good '21, but injured for all of '22. Limited production thus far in '23.
3 Alim McNeill DT - Still with DET, good, consistent starter.
3 Ifeatu Melifonwu DB - Still with DET, rotational CB.
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR - Still with DET, one of the few WR1s in the NFL. PB in '22, huge hit for round 4.
4 Derrick Barnes DE - Still with DET, initially in rotation, now a consistent starter.

...and only one washout. This is the key draft, with 4 starters out of 6 picks, no trades elsewhere. These are Dan's Dogs.

2022: Campbell's 2nd year. Lots of high picks, and generally successful.

1 Aidan Hutchinson DE - Still with DET, very good (consistent starter, runner-up DRoY)
1 Jameson Williams WR - Still with DET. So far, a real gamble.
2 Josh Paschal DE - Still with DET, but on IR. Pretty good rookie year.
3 Kerby Joseph DB - Still with DET. Top 3 DB for them, some injury issues.
5 James Mitchell TE - Still with DET. Back end of their TE bench.
6 Malcolm Rodriguez LB - Still with DET. Frequent starter in '22, less action this year.
6 James Houston LB - Still with DET. Came on late in the year as a major spark (8 sacks in 7 games!), but injured in camp and on IR.
7 Chase Lucas DB - Still with DET, just barely. Taxi squad DB depth.

2023: Campbell's 3rd year. 9-8, made the playoffs, so generally drafting deeper in rounds. It's hard to judge this class, so I won't go into full player details, but they had 4 picks in the first 45:

1 Jahmyr Gibbs RB - Head scratcher at the time (DET already has decent RBs), but so far, he's been solid.
1 Jack Campbell LB - another "huh" from the draftniks (DET already has decent LBs), but again, generally good play.
2 Sam LaPorta TE - immediately making DET fans forget TJ Hockensen. Already a top target, 3 TDs in 5 games.
2 Brian Branch DB - Deep drop into the 2nd round, but very good safety play early (2 TDs off picks). Hurt in game 4 though, so out for now.

By my count (fudging slightly for DB/RB rotations), that's 10 starters as draftees, 9 from current management. That's nearly half their starters that are young, cheap and (based on results) good. Compare that to the Pats depth chart, who have 7 starting draftees since 2020, but only one OL, and that's Owenu. Really, it's now 8 draftees, but only because Uche has been forced to start over Judon. The 10 cited on DET are all intended starters.

One more impressive detail on DET: 4 of 5 OLmen were drafted originally by DET, and the 5th (Vaitai) came aboard 3 years ago. That's exceptional consistency.

Campbell and Co are not perfect, with their share of misses as cited above, but they've had above average success in finding starters, kept (and paid) their long-term OLmen, have a legit QB1 and WR1. That's why they're winning.

 

[BaseballJones]

In 2020 the 49ers were 6-10 and the Eagles were 4-11-1. It can happen fast.

The 49ers were 6-10 because they suffered an ungodly number of injuries.

 

[BaseballJones]

Rebuilds require skill (drafting good players at positions of need) and luck (keeping them healthy). The current poster boys for a successful rebuild would be Detroit. 3-13-1 in 2021, 9-8 in 2022, 4-1 so far this year and look to be the class of their division, and a top NFC team. How did they do it? Let's start with their drafts since 2020, with current starters bolded:

2020: Last year of the Patricia-lead team. A lot of bad work here:

1 Jeff Okudah CB - Traded to ATL for a 5th round pick. Yikes
2 D'Andre Swift RB - Traded to PHI for a 4th round pick...in 2025. Double yikes.
3 Julian Okwara DE - Still with DET, good when healthy.
3 Jonah Jackson G - Still with DET, very good when healthy (consistent starter, PB in '21)

All the rest of their picks have washed out of the league. Jackson is their most important player from this draft, as an above average OL starter. As always, Matt Patricia sucks.

2021: Dan Campbell and Co come in. Tons of losses early, but start to show signs of life towards the end of the year. Some good, important picks.

1 Penei Sewell OT - Still with DET, very good. Consistent starter, PB in '22.
2 Levi Onwuzurike DL - Still with DET, good '21, but injured for all of '22. Limited production thus far in '23.
3 Alim McNeill DT - Still with DET, good, consistent starter.
3 Ifeatu Melifonwu DB - Still with DET, rotational CB.
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR - Still with DET, one of the few WR1s in the NFL. PB in '22, huge hit for round 4.
4 Derrick Barnes DE - Still with DET, initially in rotation, now a consistent starter.

...and only one washout. This is the key draft, with 4 starters out of 6 picks, no trades elsewhere. These are Dan's Dogs.

2022: Campbell's 2nd year. Lots of high picks, and generally successful.

1 Aidan Hutchinson DE - Still with DET, very good (consistent starter, runner-up DRoY)
1 Jameson Williams WR - Still with DET. So far, a real gamble.
2 Josh Paschal DE - Still with DET, but on IR. Pretty good rookie year.
3 Kerby Joseph DB - Still with DET. Top 3 DB for them, some injury issues.
5 James Mitchell TE - Still with DET. Back end of their TE bench.
6 Malcolm Rodriguez LB - Still with DET. Frequent starter in '22, less action this year.
6 James Houston LB - Still with DET. Came on late in the year as a major spark (8 sacks in 7 games!), but injured in camp and on IR.
7 Chase Lucas DB - Still with DET, just barely. Taxi squad DB depth.

2023: Campbell's 3rd year. 9-8, made the playoffs, so generally drafting deeper in rounds. It's hard to judge this class, so I won't go into full player details, but they had 4 picks in the first 45:

1 Jahmyr Gibbs RB - Head scratcher at the time (DET already has decent RBs), but so far, he's been solid.
1 Jack Campbell LB - another "huh" from the draftniks (DET already has decent LBs), but again, generally good play.
2 Sam LaPorta TE - immediately making DET fans forget TJ Hockensen. Already a top target, 3 TDs in 5 games.
2 Brian Branch DB - Deep drop into the 2nd round, but very good safety play early (2 TDs off picks). Hurt in game 4 though, so out for now.

By my count (fudging slightly for DB/RB rotations), that's 10 starters as draftees, 9 from current management. That's nearly half their starters that are young, cheap and (based on results) good. Compare that to the Pats depth chart, who have 7 starting draftees since 2020, but only one OL, and that's Owenu. Really, it's now 8 draftees, but only because Uche has been forced to start over Judon. The 10 cited on DET are all intended starters.

One more impressive detail on DET: 4 of 5 OLmen were drafted originally by DET, and the 5th (Vaitai) came aboard 3 years ago. That's exceptional consistency.

Campbell and Co are not perfect, with their share of misses as cited above, but they've had above average success in finding starters, kept (and paid) their long-term OLmen, have a legit QB1 and WR1. That's why they're winning.

All true. But one of the reasons why they've had a higher percentage of their draft picks stick with the team is because they were SO bad before these drafts - it was a case of "nowhere to go but up" from a roster-talent standpoint. Obviously they've had some terrific picks but some others were just upgrades on godawful talent.

 

[nattysez]

In 2020 the 49ers were 6-10 and the Eagles were 4-11-1. It can happen fast.

Not sure the 49ers are the best point of comparison. In 2020 they were coming off a 13-3 season and Super Bowl appearance, and they started 4-3 before Jimmy G got hurt right after the 33-6 destruction of the Patriots in Foxboro. They were likely poised for another solid year.

Philly isn't a great comparison, either. They won the SB, then went 9-7 twice (so they were still a good team), then went 4-11 before wisely jettisoning both Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz and have been a good team since then.

Houston won 4, 4, then 3 games last year. Already 2-3 this season and seem on the up.

Houston is a pretty good comp, since they won 10+ games in 2018-2019 before completely falling off a cliff from 2020-2022. However, between Deshaun being outed as a serial rapist and their org being in the thrall of Jack Easterby, it's possible they could've gotten better even faster.

What scares me is the Pats' own history: from 1989-1993 the Pats had 5, 1, 6, 2 and 5 wins while trying to rebuild. All it took to pull out of that tailspin was a new owner, a HoF coach and superstar QB (and even with Tuna and Bledsoe, they only won 5 games in 1993).

Breer interviews some (unnamed) NFC coaches/GMs about the Patriots' problems for today's column. It isn't pretty

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/09/nfl-week-5-takeaways-patriots-have-no-talent

Hmmm...who is an NFC coach who would've had time to watch the games and then chat yesterday with whom Breer would've developed a good relationship and who probably wouldn't mind throwing a little dirt on the Pats' coffin? Apropos of nothing, the Seahawks had a bye this week.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Breer interviews some (unnamed) NFC coaches/GMs about the Patriots' problems for today's column. It isn't pretty

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/09/nfl-week-5-takeaways-patriots-have-no-talent

The part that is kind of frustrating is that they are spending to the cap with a QB that has a rookie contract and a $4m cap hit. They have $3 million in space right now, which is barely enough to get through the season -- 27th in the league. It's hard to take having crappy talent but also spending for it. It would be nice to have $15 or $20 million carry over to show for it. But we're paying for the bad players.

The Cowboys are paying over $25 million for a QB, and still have talent up and down the lineup and over $12 million in space. Just to pull one team out of a hat. We're paying $20 million less for a QB and "spending" $30 million more in cap space for the rest of the lineup.

The heavy caveat here is that any snapshot of cap space is misleading. It's always a multi-year thing. But, man, we are paying top dollar for this below average roster this year.

 

[rodderick]

The part that is kind of frustrating is that they are spending to the cap with a QB that has a rookie contract and a $4m cap hit. They have $3 million right now, which is barely enough to get through the season -- 27th in the league. It's hard to take having crappy talent but also spending for it. It would be nice to have $15 or $20 million carry over to show for it. But we're paying for the bad players.

The heavy caveat here is that any snapshot of cap space is misleading. It's always a multi-year thing. But, man, we are paying top dollar for this below average roster this year.

Cap space isn't really a multi year thing, teams pretty much have to spend to the cap because the floor is so high. Now cash spending on the other hand is a multi year thing and I question the decision to never borrow from future seasons to make some moves when you have that much cap space in 2024 and 2025 (top of the league). Why are we penny pinching with Hopkins? Why are we not signing one of the premier tackles in free agency? Why are we penny pinching with Juju over Meyers? If "cap hell" is a thing, the two poster boys for it in the Saints and Rams don't look any worse than they do right now. Kinda tired of the whole fiscal responsibility nonsense when every team is doing crazy cap maneuvers to maximize talent in the short and medium term and, honestly, with very little repercussions.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Bowers is awesome. I really like him. You get him and add Tee Higgins in FA and you've completely changed the ceiling of your offensive skill position guys. The problem, of course, is that you need someone to throw them the ball and you need 5 guys to block for that someone. Bowers feels like he'd be a perfect pick for a team like Arizona with 2 potential top 10 picks and a QB already in place (assuming they stick with Kyler Murray).

It may not be that easy to sign a top FA to come here (unless you dramatically overpay) with all the issues, too. Bill seems like a guy who has always wanted guys who want to be here- don’t think the Belichick or Patriots brand is all that respected or revered by todays players.

As for the penny pinching- I think it kind of often comes down to that power and wanting guys who want to be here- didn’t they lose Karras over some minuscule amount just to provide some kind of point? When current patriots seem to want more elsewhere they are allowed to walk or have to come crawling back.

 

[rodderick]

It may not be that easy to sign a top FA to come here (unless you dramatically overpay) with all the issues, too. Bill seems like a guy who has always wanted guys who want to be here- don’t think the Belichick or Patriots brand is all that respected or revered by todays players.

If you pay them the most money they'll come. Doesn't need to be dramatically.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Hmmm...who is an NFC coach who would've had time to watch the games and then chat yesterday with whom Breer would've developed a good relationship and who probably wouldn't mind throwing a little dirt on the Pats' coffin? Apropos of nothing, the Seahawks had a bye this week.

It doesn’t matter who the coach is, that gave the quote. What matters is whether or not their assessment is correct.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If you pay them the most money they'll come. Doesn't need to be dramatically.

Sure. That’s how we ended up with Agholor, Smith, Henry, and to be fair, Judon. With premium players who have multiple options, it may get trickier. This isn’t a real compelling destination right now.

 

[johnmd20]

It doesn’t matter who the coach is, that gave the quote. What matters is whether or not their assessment is correct.

I've done the math.

Verdict: It is correct

Without Judon and Gonzalez, the Patriots are bereft of talent. Especially on offense, which is truly putrid. They are bad on the line. They are bad at RB. They are terrible at WR. And they are bad at QB.

 

[BaseballJones]

I've done the math.

Verdict: It is correct

Without Judon and Gonzalez, the Patriots are bereft of talent. Especially on offense, which is truly putrid. They are bad on the line. They are bad at RB. They are terrible at WR. And they are bad at QB.

Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones, Deion White, Barmore, Bentley - they all have talent. Offensively it's way, way worse.

 

[rodderick]

Sure. That’s how we ended up with Agholor, Smith, Henry, and to be fair, Judon. With premium players who have multiple options, it may get trickier. This isn’t a real compelling destination right now.

It's how it works with every free agent, Bill just doesn't like to offer contracts to the top of the market guys, save a few exceptions like Colvin, Gilmore and Adalius Thomas.

And in today's NFL the very top players hardly ever hit the market, especially in premier positions. And he's not trading for those guys on top of giving them money either. This is why I think his approach isn't good enough, the whole "middle class" stuff doesn't fly unless you're drafting the elite guys, and he hasn't.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

It doesn’t matter who the coach is, that gave the quote. What matters is whether or not their assessment is correct.

If you watch any NFL objectively, it is correct. I don't know that their OL or each of the skill players or even Mac would look as bad if they were surrounded by talent at the other positions but its pretty clear that the Patriots have a skill deficit in just about every area on offense. Its beyond obvious that you cannot sustainably win in the NFL with that sort of profile.

Setting aside whether they are capable or interested, I have to believe that BB & staff know this as well even if they bought their own groceries. They can't really add talent in-season so one of the things I am watching is how they "fix" things going forward so the team isn't getting drilled every week for the rest of the season. That may go a ways towards signaling what the plan is. To me the OL is job one.

 

[rodderick]

If you watch any NFL objectively, it is correct. I don't know that their OL or each of the skill players or even Mac would look as bad if they were surrounded by talent at the other positions but its pretty clear that the Patriots have a skill deficit in just about every area on offense. Its beyond obvious that you cannot sustainably win in the NFL with that sort of profile.

Setting aside whether they are capable or interested, I have to believe that BB & staff know this as well even if they bought their own groceries. They can't really add talent in-season so one of the things I am watching is how they "fix" things going forward so the team isn't getting drilled every week for the rest of the season. That may go a ways towards signaling what the plan is. To me the OL is job one.

Yup. The OL and receivers make the QB look worse while the QB makes the OL and receivers look worse, it's a vicious cycle of suck they're in right now.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Before a rebuild can happen, you need to determine if Bill Belichick is the person capable of leading this organization through it. I personally do not have the faith that he can do it properly due to the massive mistakes he's made on the offensive side of the ball the last 5 years. Once you get new leadership in, are you hiring an offensive minded HC or are you keeping it in house with Mayo? IMO, I do not go with Mayo and I go with somebody like Ben Johnson from Detroit or Frank Smith from Miami. They need an innovative offensive HC as this is how games are won these days.

If they get a top 5 pick, first priority is to go QB. You would hope they are never in this position again and if you can grab either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye you do it. If you can't get one of those two you either take the best OT available, Brock Bowers, or trade down. I would tend to choose trade down and accumulate as much draft capital as possible. They need to address so many areas that one particular player isn't going to move the needle right now outside of the top 2 QB's.

At QB, if they can't get Williams or Maye I would gauge Mac's trade value and if they can get something of value for him I would trade him. Then I would look at somebody like Brissett, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, or Josh Dobbs to be a stopgap until they find their next franchise guy and until they can properly build the roster back up.

Beyond that, I don't have many answers right now. Try to re-sign Dugger to a long-term deal. At the deadline I would look to deal off pieces like Trent Brown, Josh Uche, and Kendrick Bourne for draft capital.