The Pre-Game Thread: Week 7 @ Steelers
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Landry Jones in 2015:
Looks like a lot of run after catch by the talented Steelers WR group. Sound tackling seems to be in order. NFL.com's Chris Wesseling, one of my favorites, says this:
Speaking of, Pitt's rushing was ranked 16th before yesterday's game. Le'Veon Bell ranking #1 among backs with less than 40 carries. Yesterday's loss vs Miami, he only carried 10 times for 53 yards.
NE & Brady always picked apart Pitt's D, and their secondary's a mess. Behindthesteelcurtain.com's faith in it has fallen to new depths:
Amendola & Mitchell may have a field day especially against the right corners that feature the likes of Ross Cockrell (completely outclassed by Brandon Marshall in week 5) and Artie Burns.
As always, Steeler's strength is in their front-seven, especially Cameron, Hargrave, and Tuitt up front. But they aren't generating a lot of QB pressure, only registering 8 sacks all year. That and the shaky secondary has Pitt giving a 29th worth 294 passing yards/game.
Big worry of the week: even without Big Ben, this offense has a lot of talented weapons. Steelers are #5 in 3rd down conversions with 46%. Pats are 6th worst in allowing 44% 3rd down conversions. One of the early struggles Brady & Co. had was the lack of drives (only 9 of them all game). Quite amazing to get 35pts out of that, but they can't let Landry string out the game and make this a low-scoring affair.
- 7 games played / 2 games started
- 32/55 for 58.2 Com%
- 513 Yds / 3 TD / 4 INT
- 9.3 Y/A / 73.3 Y/G
Looks like a lot of run after catch by the talented Steelers WR group. Sound tackling seems to be in order. NFL.com's Chris Wesseling, one of my favorites, says this:
Whereas the Patriots survived Tom Brady's early-season absence with recent high draft picks Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, the Steelers have neglected to upgrade their quarterback insurance.
The dropoff from Roethlisberger to Landry Jones is as steep as any starter-to-backup transition in the league.
A scattershot Jones managed a 58.2 completion rate and 77.3 passer rating on 55 attempts as Roethlisberger's stand-in last season.
Roethlisberger directs a high-octane, pass-heavy attack, relentlessly attacking defenses with accurate strikes down the field. From what we've seen in preseason and regular-season action over the past few seasons, coordinator Todd Haley will scale back the offense for Jones, opting to build game plans around the backfield duo of Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams.
The dropoff from Roethlisberger to Landry Jones is as steep as any starter-to-backup transition in the league.
A scattershot Jones managed a 58.2 completion rate and 77.3 passer rating on 55 attempts as Roethlisberger's stand-in last season.
Roethlisberger directs a high-octane, pass-heavy attack, relentlessly attacking defenses with accurate strikes down the field. From what we've seen in preseason and regular-season action over the past few seasons, coordinator Todd Haley will scale back the offense for Jones, opting to build game plans around the backfield duo of Le'Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams.
Speaking of, Pitt's rushing was ranked 16th before yesterday's game. Le'Veon Bell ranking #1 among backs with less than 40 carries. Yesterday's loss vs Miami, he only carried 10 times for 53 yards.
NE & Brady always picked apart Pitt's D, and their secondary's a mess. Behindthesteelcurtain.com's faith in it has fallen to new depths:
The secondary - Stock has officially gone through rock bottom: I should preface this by saying that I understand Pittsburgh's defensive philosophy; soft-ish coverage between the 20s, tighten up in the red zone, fields goals are better than touchdowns. Pretty simple concepts. And to be fair, Pittsburgh's defense did just that in the first half by holding Miami to a trio of field goals in their first three trips to the red zone. But, when you think about how Miami entered the red zone in the first place, the blame falls squarely on the secondary.
Amendola & Mitchell may have a field day especially against the right corners that feature the likes of Ross Cockrell (completely outclassed by Brandon Marshall in week 5) and Artie Burns.
As always, Steeler's strength is in their front-seven, especially Cameron, Hargrave, and Tuitt up front. But they aren't generating a lot of QB pressure, only registering 8 sacks all year. That and the shaky secondary has Pitt giving a 29th worth 294 passing yards/game.
Big worry of the week: even without Big Ben, this offense has a lot of talented weapons. Steelers are #5 in 3rd down conversions with 46%. Pats are 6th worst in allowing 44% 3rd down conversions. One of the early struggles Brady & Co. had was the lack of drives (only 9 of them all game). Quite amazing to get 35pts out of that, but they can't let Landry string out the game and make this a low-scoring affair.
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I'm actually bummed about Ben's injury. I wanted to see how the Patriots matchup against what's likely their stiffest competition in the AFC (along with Denver, of course), on the road.
Obviously I'm happy with the improved odds of winning, but I wanted to see Ben vs. Brady, because whomever won that matchup would tell us a lot more about a potential playoff matchup than Landry vs. Brady will.
Obviously I'm happy with the improved odds of winning, but I wanted to see Ben vs. Brady, because whomever won that matchup would tell us a lot more about a potential playoff matchup than Landry vs. Brady will.
It's the regular season so who cares? I would love to face a parade of backups en route to a 13 or 14 win season. We already know that the Patriots are a very good team. We also know that the Steelers are a very good team. Happy to resolve who's better in January in Foxboro vs. Heinz Field.
I'm just going to throw this out there ... I'm not 100% convinced Ben does not play Sunday. From what I have read, the procedure is fairly minor. He does have a habit of finding a way on to the field.....
Drew Brees career road stats, prorated to a 16 game schedule: 65% completions, 4300 yards, 26/15 TD/INT
It only suffers by comparison to playing in a dome, much like Peyton.
Yeah Im not trying to say Drew Brees is a bad quarterback on the road. Just was making an imperfect analogy that the Steelers have a pronounced home road split over the last couple of years. Real or statistical fluke? Don't know, don't want any part of a January game in Pittsburgh to gather more data.
Maybe will look for the numbers later, but his track record in first games back from injury is actually pretty bad. Whatever percent Ben is better than Landry Jones, but gonna be a downgrade at QB either way.
Pats have to find a way to improve on 3rd down defensively. It may not hurt them this week in terms of winning and losing, but I tend to worry about wear and tear down the road. 2 of 5 games they have been on the field for 70 plays and above and 2 others above 60. It's a small complaint, but getting off the field on 3rd down is an issue right now.
As far as this week goes, I expect to see a lot of alignment change and disguises at the line to confuse Jonest if he's in there . I hope they play as much man coverage with 2 high safeties as possible to take away the deep ball from AB and Heyward-Bey. As they did with Dalton and Carson Palmer, make Jones dink and dunk his way down the field.
As far as this week goes, I expect to see a lot of alignment change and disguises at the line to confuse Jonest if he's in there . I hope they play as much man coverage with 2 high safeties as possible to take away the deep ball from AB and Heyward-Bey. As they did with Dalton and Carson Palmer, make Jones dink and dunk his way down the field.
Agree tho they haven't really had a healthy complement of linebackers yet. Yes, Nink came back but Collins may be the most physically gifted linebacker in the game, so not having him def. hurt (they also didn't have Eiffert so that evened it out some probably).
I have to figure Belichick hasn't been thrilled with the defensive play as of yet – I think Super Nomario's comment about the depth of the d-line masking their lack of elite talent has probably started to rear its head in a few of these games. But I also suspect he isn't panicking. This is a talented group that, as we saw yesterday, may not be in the elite class on some ways but has the ability to make big plays.
I have to figure Belichick hasn't been thrilled with the defensive play as of yet – I think Super Nomario's comment about the depth of the d-line masking their lack of elite talent has probably started to rear its head in a few of these games. But I also suspect he isn't panicking. This is a talented group that, as we saw yesterday, may not be in the elite class on some ways but has the ability to make big plays.
I would imagine that BB's focus will be limiting the damage that Bell can do and to making sure there are two DBs following #84 most of the time.
Pitt's D is giving up 294 yards passing, and it has been against a very mediocre group of QBs (Cousins, Dalton, Wentz, Tannehill, Fitz) -- I would think the Pats could throw all day on them.
Big game for seeding implications -- Pats 38-17.
Pitt's D is giving up 294 yards passing, and it has been against a very mediocre group of QBs (Cousins, Dalton, Wentz, Tannehill, Fitz) -- I would think the Pats could throw all day on them.
Big game for seeding implications -- Pats 38-17.
At the end of the day, the most important defensive stat is points allowed. They made stops when they had to especially in the red area. A lot of yesterday's issues stemmed from predominantly zone coverage in the first half. When they switched to man to man and made Dalton throw into tighter windows he was much less effective.
Yes. But to genoa's point, Ben has unbelievable pain tolerance. You'd think with the bye the following week and the Ravens following that the Steelers would sit him (in a division where Cin and Bal have significant weaknesses). But that's just when you'd expect the sob to play, and I'm not buying it until he is ruled out.
Also with you that anyone who takes the Pats and gives that many points should be put under observation.
I don't think a meniscus trimming is going to keep Ben out. I'm betting he's braced and starting on Sunday.
Feels like the kind of game where Pitt will be tempted to play slow - eat up clock, reduce the total number of possessions. I'm guessing the Pats will do exactly the opposite, spread out, no huddle, try to force Landry to play catch-up (which is the goal every week, of course...).
EDIT - assuming Ben doesn't play
EDIT - assuming Ben doesn't play
I trust Shefter as well, but I have this injury right now and I bet he plays based on what I'm dealing with. His may be worse or not as bad, but the surgery is described as trimming, so I don't believe its too severe. They'll clean it up and see what he can do. He can put a brace on it and roll IMO. I wouldn't say that if he was a WR or RB, but as a dropback QB, I bet he plays. I may be wrong, I'm not an ortho, just a guy with a torn meniscus.
I don't see Vegas moving the line 8.5 points without feeling very confident that Ben won't play (or that he'll be a limping disaster if he does try to get out there). If there is a legit chance of an effective Ben in this game, offering the public PIT +7.5 at home is a recipe for getting slaughtered. And if they were truly uncertain, they would probably take the game off the board for a few days (especially since its only Monday) to get more clarity.
You can literally walk to the car after having surgery to repair a torn miniscus. He does not risk any further damage to his knee by playing. Based on his history, if he can walk on the field, he is playing.
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Actually, the Pats are one of the worst red zone defense teams in the league this year. What they've done is give the opponents bad field position by (1) not turning the ball over, (2) getting good punts, and (3) good kickoff coverage, and forcing the opponents to march a long ways to score. And the opposition HAS moved the ball, but generally they've been held short of the red zone.
I'm specifically talking about yesterday and the goal line stand which was a huge part of the game.
Agreed with all of this.
Also, why would Schefter and Rapoport definitely tweet that he was out on Sunday? They normally hedge, saying something like "Steelers EXPECT Roethlisberger to miss Sunday's game."
They didn't do that here - unequivocally stated he will not play.
I don't know. They gave the ball pretty much right back to the Bengals (after one first down) in good field position. The Bengals then promptly moved the ball into the red area and then scored a TD. If they (the Bengals) had scored a TD and kicked off instead of being stopped at the 1 yard line, it isn't necessarily the case that they would have scored again on that subsequent drive.
They also allowed a TD on the Bengals next red zone appearance to start the 2nd half.
Long way of saying I'm not sure that the goal line stand meant much of anything, or that the Pats red zone issues on defense are fixed based on that one possession.
According to FO, Pats and Steelers are very similar teams defensively, being very strong against the running game and very weak against the pass (and generating very little pass rush), so the downgrade from Ben to Landry really plays into our hands. It might not be a blowout, but if Ben doesn't play it's hard to imagine PIT putting up enough points to win.
Well they did make that big stop for sure. On the game, Cincy got into the red zone four times, and scored two TDs and kicked one FG.
I'm a fucking fantastic surgeon but if I got patient back on the field six days after a scope I would actually make you deadbeats give me ten bucks each. He's not playing this weekend.
I defer to you without exception or reservation on these things. But I'm from Missouri on this one. Yes, this is probably a smokescreen by Jones. But I would not be a bit surprised if Ben at least started this game.
The bolded point is the key, especially with a bye then a game against the Ravens. And flawed teams in the North, and a reasonable path to a home playoff game if not a first round bye. But if it's just a matter of pain management and effectiveness ...
Yesterday, Hightower actually spoke his mind on WEEI to Ordway:
Easy there on the "anything to get an edge", Dont'a.
And therein lies the truth. I didn't have the surgery so what do I know.
Aditi Kinkhabwala @AKinkhabwala 8m8 minutes ago
Ben Roethlisberger is officially OUT Sunday vs Patriots. So is DE Cam Heyward. Two of the Steelers captains, incidentally.
Told ya
Ben Roethlisberger is officially OUT Sunday vs Patriots. So is DE Cam Heyward. Two of the Steelers captains, incidentally.
Told ya
Give me my ten bucksAditi Kinkhabwala @AKinkhabwala 8m8 minutes ago
Ben Roethlisberger is officially OUT Sunday vs Patriots. So is DE Cam Heyward. Two of the Steelers captains, incidentally.
Told ya
Hadn't seen this mentioned, so I'd thought I'd point out that the Steelers have a cakewalk of a schedule the rest of the way, at least when compared to New England's. Critical game for playoff seeding despite it being only October.
The three hardest matchups left for the Pats are @Buffalo, vs. Seattle and @Denver. It would surprise me if they did worse than 2-1 in those games. With the Steelers starting Landry Jones and the Ravens showing their 3-0 start wasn't really indicative of who they are, the schedule looks a lot less daunting. The Pats should get HFA if they remain moderately healthy.
Actually, the remaining schedules for NE and PIT are pretty comparable.
Both play @BUF
Both host BAL
NE hosts SEA (after NE's bye), PIT hosts DAL - more or less a push.
NE plays @SF, PIT plays @IND - more or less a push.
NE has 2 vs NYJ, PIT has 2 vs CLE - more or less a push.
NE hosts LAR, PIT hosts NYG - more or less a push.
NE plays @MIA, PIT plays @CIN - more or less a push.
NE plays @DEN, PIT plays @BAL (after PIT's bye) - easier game for PIT.
That said, if NE were to lose to PIT, they will both be 5-2 and PIT would have the tiebreaker and that one easier game.