Adrian's Dome said:
That "complaining" was a response to someone saying the offense would be ridiculous. There's still question marks there.
Miley's improved K rate last year also came with a BB% spike, and Porcello has been nothing if not underwhelming his entire career outside of one decent season last year. Yes, he's young, but where's the upside?
Here's an interesting comp. I'm in no way predicting Miley will become this, but it's food for thought.
Age 25-27 seasons for Miley.
2012: 6.66 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 43.3% GB, 6.90% HR/FB, 81 ERA-, 78 FIP-
2013: 6.53 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 52.0% GB, 12.5% HR/FB, 91 ERA-, 102 FIP-
2014: 8.18 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9, 51.1% GB, 13.9% HR/FB, 114 ERA-, 104 FIP-
Age 25-27 seasons for mystery pitcher.
2008: 6.50 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, 0.60 HR/9, 47.5% GB, 7.00% HR/FB, 71 ERA-, 81 FIP-
2009: 9.96 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 47.7% GB, 10.6% HR/FB, 68 ERA-, 81 FIP-
2010: 9.75 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 53.6% GB, 8.90% HR/FB, 75 ERA-, 71 FIP-
I didn't shy away from the differences as many of them (ERA-, FIP-) can be explained by the difference in HR/FB. What we have is two guys who went through a period of low strike outs early in their major league careers while they learned to trust their stuff to induce weak contact. Once the second pitcher started pitching for strikeouts more, his walk rate came up. Same has happened to Miley. Here are the age 28, 29 and 30 seasons for the mystery pitcher.
2011: 8.55 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 50.5% GB, 11.4% HR/FB, 82 ERA-, 91 FIP-
2012: 7.28 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 49.2% GB, 13.9% HR/FB, 113 ERA-, 96 FIP-
2013: 7.47 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 0.80 HR/9, 45.0% GB, 8.30% HR/FB, 90 ERA-, 87 FIP-
As you may have guessed the mystery pitcher is Jon Lester. Again, I'm not predicting Wade Miley is destined to become Jon Lester. I'm just pointing out that the rise in his walks coinciding with the rise in his strikeout rate could be part of an adjustment as he tries to find a balance between his stuff inducing weak contact and his stuff generating swings and misses. It also points out that home run rates can have a pretty big impact on performance relative to league. If Miley can get his HR/9 back down to something in the .7 to .8 range, his ERA- and FIP- are going to look much better. The move to Fenway should help, as would a reversion to the mean.
Adrian's Dome said:
When you have a staff filled with contact-inducing groundballers, you don't think those three outcomes vs. strikeouts could be a big deal?
No. An out is an out. This is sort of like arguing that hitters who strike out a lot even though they get on base a lot are inherently a problem because they strike out a lot. Getting on base is what matters. There are arguments to be made for high contact rate hitters being slightly more valuable due to the fact that putting the ball in play means the opportunity for a double, triple or home run, just as not putting the ball in play removes the chances for those same things, but an out is an out.