The offense has become offensive

[The Gray Eagle]

Over the first 44 games of the season (before the west coast trip on May 19) the Red Sox record was 24-20.
They scored 248 runs and allowed 232 in those games.
Runs scored per game: 5.63. Runs allowed per game: 5.27.
Good offense, really bad pitching.

Good news everyone!

In the 23 games played since the start of the trip, the Red Sox pitching has greatly improved, as they have allowed 95 runs, and average of 4.13 per game, over a full run less than before! (And that's total runs, not earned runs, so the bad defense is included.)

Bad news, everyone!

In the last 23 games since May 19, the offense has scored 78 runs, plummeting to an abysmal 3.39 runs per game over that stretch.
Run differential on the season has gone from +16 to -1 in those 23 games, despite the pitching significantly improving over that stretch.
The W-L since then is 9-14.

(This post involved some basic arithmetic, so I probably got some numbers wrong. Apologies if so.)

The losses are piling up, and the Red Sox are now tied for 6th in the Wild Card race, 4.5 games out. Baseball Reference has us with a 5.5% chance of making the postseason. (Yikes!)

I'm sure everyone is full of theories and opinions about what happened and why and whether the offense will improve much or not.
But the idea that this team has a good offense and lousy pitching hasn't been true for almost a month now, it's actually been the complete opposite.

 

[Niastri]

While the numbers absolutely indicate you are correct about the respective qualities of offense and defense/pitching, the overall talent in the lineup and pitching staff would seem to indicate a likely return to normal for the offense and a great need to "prove it" for the pitchers.

 

[BaseballJones]

The offense has gone south for the following reasons (as I see it):

- Devers. First 34 games: 11 hr, 34 rbi, .869 ops. Last 30 games: 4 hr, 18 rbi, .677 ops. He's been bad and he's the centerpiece of the offense.

- The lesser guys who got off to hot starts have either gotten hurt (Duvall) or declined (Verdugo, McGuire - .798 ops first 20 games, .554 ops last 17 games, Duran - 1.006 ops first 28 games, .454 ops last 21 games).

- They haven't really had anyone else step up. Turner has been fine. Yoshida has been fine. Neither has carried the offense. Cases hasn't done much. Kiké has been yuck. Good offenses have different guys step up as other guys hit slumps. This team has had guys slump without anyone else stepping up.

 

[grimshaw]

While 10-11 isn't an awful record for 1 run games, they need to improve around the margins if they have a chance of sneaking in.

I don't know why they aren't hit and running more when Yoshida is up. 56% of his balls in play are grounders, he rarely swings and misses, and he can spray the ball. He has also hit into 8 double plays. Verdugo and Turner are two other guys with low whiff rates and can handle the bat. They have each hit into 5 double plays.

They are also 4th lowest in stolen base attempts. Turner, Casas, and Devers probably shouldn't run, but everyone else isn't a statue and they aren't putting enough pressure on defenses. They should join the party.

In terms of where the improvements will come - Duvall hits the ball out of the park. There hasn't been enough of that. Raffy is the obvious candidate to produce much more, and Story would be a good improvement on the below average bats at 2b.

They are still 6th in runs scored, OBP and k% so I think they will ultimately be fine and creep back into being a difficult team to pitch to.

 

[nvalvo]

Quietly, Duran and Casas have been much improved.

Duran had a three week free fall where he struck out 28 times in 69 PA — yikes! — but he has stabilized in the past week or so and has a much more reasonable K rate over the last six games, which has unsurprisingly helped his numbers across the board in that small sample.

Casas has been decent for a month now: .232/.339/.432. We all think there’s more in there, but that’s a tic better than the league line for all 1B.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Stat Masterson at the Glob points out that the woeful offense continues:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/04/sports/with-red-sox-patchwork-pitching-staff-admirably-scraping-by-bats-have-let-them-down-instead/

The loss to the Rangers marked the fourth consecutive home loss by the Sox. Over those four defeats, they’ve totaled five runs (tied for the fewest over any four-game Fenway stretch for the team in the last 49 years) and failed to score more than two in any of those games.

The magic number seems to be 5 runs scored:

The Sox are a robust 35-6 (.854) when scoring at least five runs, the sixth best mark in the big leagues in such contests. They’ve won eight straight games dating to June 14 when plating at least five.
They are averaging 4.3 runs per game since the start of June, scoring four runs or fewer in 19 of 31 games (61 percent) in that time. That’s not a formula that typically works for them. The Sox are just 8-37 (.178) when scoring fewer than five runs this year, the fifth-worst winning percentage in the big leagues in such contests.

By month, the offense has dropped from 3rd to 13th to 18th, while the pitching has improved from 25th to 20th to 13th.

March/April
Runs scored per game: 5.6 (3rd)
Runs allowed per game: 5.2 (25th)
May
scored: 4.7 (13th)
allowed: 4.8 (20th)
June/July
scored: 4.3 (18th)
allowed: 4.2 (13th)

Possible causes? Home runs are falling off as hitting with RISP has gotten worse, and they are missing pitches they should hammer.

The team’s lack of home run power has put pressure on the offense to be immensely productive with runners on base, stringing together several quality at-bats at a time. The opposite has occurred, with the Sox hitting .240 and slugging .371 with runners in scoring position since June 1. (They’d been at .293 and .460 prior)
Part of the problem? The team hasn’t seen a meaningful uptick in its chase rate, but is getting beaten in the strike zone, entering yesterday hitting just .247 with a .419 slugging mark on pitches in the strike zone since the start of June, down from .331 and .532. Cora noted that both Rafael Devers and Triston Casas swung through changeups from Rangers starter Dane Dunning that were in the heart of the strike zone on Tuesday.

This declining offense, combined with the pitching injuries and lousy defense, makes things look grim. Seems like they need to start putting up a lot more 5+-run games immediately if they want to stay even on the fringes of the postseason hunt.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

They are getting nothing offensively out of C, 2B, and SS almost every night; and CF if Duvall is playing. Makes it tough.

 

[soxhop411]

I know we are rightfully pissed at how the sox are pitching. But IMO our offense has been absolutely dreadful the past two weeks. And they should be getting and equal if not greater share of our scorn

The garbage pitchers getting lit up is whatever. The offense being garbage again is the biggest disappointment. Can barely scrape together a couple runs against a pitcher giving them pitches over the plate all game. Just pathetic.

Yup. Since 7/25 (two weeks ago)
Offensive rankings

BA: 20th in mlb (11th in Al)
Slugging (20th) (11th in AL)
OBP: 23rd (13th in AL)
RBI 24th (44) (12th AL)
HR:17th (9th in AL)
Hits 23rd (12th)
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-07-25&enddate=2023-08-08&sort=19,a

 

[Rovin Romine]

They've been streaky and inconsistent and it's frustrating. But they have scored runs over the season.

Here's where they stood before tonight's game.

 

[AB in DC]

...which is entirely due to a blazing hot March/April (163 runs, 3rd in MLB)

Since then:

May: 122 (20th)
June: 116 (15th)
July: 124 (10th)
Aug thru yesterday: 23 (22d)

 

[Daniel_Son]

.686 team OPS in August. That just ain't gonna cut it.

 

[soxhop411]

...which is entirely due to a blazing hot March/April (163 runs, 3rd in MLB)

Since then:

May: 122 (20th)
June: 116 (15th)
July: 124 (10th)
Aug thru yesterday: 23 (22d)

Correct

.686 team OPS in August. That just ain't gonna cut it.

Also not going to cut it?
View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1689304276223295488

Red Sox Have scored a combined 2 runs in the 1st and 2nd inning over their last 12 games 24 total innings - 2 runs and 0 runs in their last 7 games in the 1st and 2nd inning tough to win that way

Only scoring TWO runs combined in the 1 and 2nd innings over the last 12 games is... insane, and seems almost impossible, but they found a way to do it apparently

 

[soxhop411]

...which is entirely due to a blazing hot March/April (163 runs, 3rd in MLB)

Since then:

May: 122 (20th)
June: 116 (15th)
July: 124 (10th)
Aug thru yesterday: 23 (22d)

Update to the above:

The Red Sox offense got shut down by Matt Manning, who owned a 5.06 ERA, 5.37 xERA, and 5.31 FIP this year.

Since the Sox went to San Fran 15 games ago, their offense has been horrific.

24th BA
27th OBP
21st Isolated Pwr
26th wRC+

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1690486951495745536?s=46


offense going ice cold at the worst possible time
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1690502895672627200?s=46

In their last 15 games, the Red Sox offense is averaging 3.3 runs per game, their worst 15-game stretch of the season. They have been held to 3 runs or fewer 10 times, and haven't scored more than 6.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

For all the handwringing about the pitching, it really is the offense that is not pulling its weight lately. Averaging 3.3 runs per game over 15 games explains the 6-9 August record quite succinctly.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The offense seems pretty weak when Duran isn’t doing anything.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The offense seems pretty weak when Duran isn’t doing anything.

Verdugo, Duran, and Yoshida are all scuffling. Nobody is setting the table.

 

[soxhop411]

For all the handwringing about the pitching, it really is the offense that is not pulling its weight lately. Averaging 3.3 runs per game over 15 games explains the 6-9 August record quite succinctly.

Yup. And as a result it puts way to much pressure on the pitchers to be perfect

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

Add to these observations that after a long stay in the minors we were all waiting for Story to return to give the offense a lift and he has done almost nothing. Yes I realize it’s only been four games but still there appears to be absolutely no urgency with this team.

 

[simplicio]

Add to these observations that after a long stay in the minors we were all waiting for Story to return to give the offense a lift and he has done almost nothing. Yes I realize it’s only been four games but still there appears to be absolutely no urgency with this team.

He had less than a spring training's worth of games in the minors. Anyone who thought he'd come back at full offensive power didn't have realistic expectations.

And I'm not sure what his case has to do with urgency at all.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

Add to these observations that after a long stay in the minors we were all waiting for Story to return to give the offense a lift and he has done almost nothing. Yes I realize it’s only been four games but still there appears to be absolutely no urgency with this team.

I mean, the guy wanted to stay on the minors an extra few games for a reason— he knows his swing and I'm sure was desperate for as many ABs as he could get before facing major league pitching again. He hasn't played much the last few seasons, had major surgery, didn't get a spring training last year or this year etc. It wasn't really a long stay down there considering. I think he's earned more than a handful of rehab appearances and 15 MLB at bats before being accused of not having urgency.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He had less than a spring training's worth of games in the minors. Anyone who thought he'd come back at full offensive power didn't have realistic expectations.

And I'm not sure what his case has to do with urgency at all.

You're exactly right that no one should have expected Story to be an offensive beast out of the gate. He's still shaking off the rust.

I do think Reggie was referring to the whole team having a lack of urgency. Of course, urgency is hard to quantify in baseball. If you're slumping at the plate (or on the mound), pressing harder isn't necessarily the solution. This isn't football or basketball where you just run harder or hit harder or force things to happen. And sometimes, even when you are locked in, the hits don't fall. Verdugo absolutely smoked two balls yesterday (101 and 107 exit velocity) that unfortunately both turned into inning ending double plays. The latter was the hardest hit ball all day by either team. What can he do different or better there (aside from magically guiding the ball away from the defense)?

 

[8slim]

He had less than a spring training's worth of games in the minors. Anyone who thought he'd come back at full offensive power didn't have realistic expectations.

And I'm not sure what his case has to do with urgency at all.

Agree about “urgency” and agree that the expectation should be that it’ll take Story time to be productive.

However, the latter is why the hold-em strategy at the deadline (and in the month leading up to it) was likely to be a high wire approach. It’s likely few of the returnees are ready to mash/deal right out of the gate. I’m concerned by the time they lock in (assuming they do at all) it’ll be too late.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

I’m concerned by the time they lock in (assuming they do at all) it’ll be too late.

This was exactly my point. I was commenting about urgency as a team after the deadline as a whole and by management not Story. The reason I thought they needed to sell at the deadline was my feeling that with all the existing injuries to Houck, Whitlock, Sale, McGuire and Story (and now Turner) that it is going to be too late if it is not already.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Add to these observations that after a long stay in the minors we were all waiting for Story to return to give the offense a lift and he has done almost nothing. Yes I realize it’s only been four games but still there appears to be absolutely no urgency with this team.

And just like that, he goes 4 for 4 and is hitting .368. I think he's going to be just fine.

 

[streeter88]

Never tried tiger… But the Sox offense seemed to like it.

 

[Jason Bae]

For all the handwringing about the pitching, it really is the offense that is not pulling its weight lately. Averaging 3.3 runs per game over 15 games explains the 6-9 August record quite succinctly.

Offense is frustrating, but SEA/TOR/SFG are all in the top 3 in their respective league in RA/G (and two of them play in pitcher friendly ballparks)

 

[soxhop411]

update to the above:



Since 7/25- 8/17
BA: 19th in mlb (10th in Al)
Slugging (20th) (11th in AL)
OBP: 25th (13th in AL)
RBI 26th (13th AL)
HR:20th (10th in AL)
Hits 23rd (12th)

According to B-ref
Verdugo: Last 28 days: .215 BA, 2HR, 7RBI (.264 OBP, .339 SLG, 16SO)
Yoshida: Last 28 days: .218 BA 1HR 6RBI (.253 OBP, .308 SLG, 11SO)m
Devers: Last 28 days: .280 BA 3HR, 6RBI, (379 OBP, .453 SLG, 11 SO)


Again, for all the anger people have had wrt to our Pitching staff, the offense has gone ice cold for close to a month, especially those who were supposed to be our middle of the order bats

 

[grimshaw]

Devers: Last 28 days: .280 BA 3HR, 6RBI, (379 OBP, .453 SLG, 11 SO)

The larger point stands, but the Raffy we need hasn't been the guy all season. That line is basically what X did last season (.377/.456). Except X could field his position and run.
Devers' wRC+ has dropped from 124 to 122 over that time period and his k rate has gone down a percentage point.

The much better competition the rest of the way isn't likely to help that either.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Devers is now at 262/336/506, 122 OPS+, compared to 280/341/511, 124 OPS+ for his career. Giving a guy a huge raise doesn’t automatically make him a better player, unfortunately.

 

[grimshaw]

Devers is now at 262/336/506, 122 OPS+, compared to 280/341/511, 124 OPS+ for his career. Giving a guy a huge raise doesn’t automatically make him a better player, unfortunately.

I blame Steve Cohen.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I blame Steve Cohen.

For not trying harder to trade for him?