The Newest Vaughn

sezwho

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Do you view Vaughn as an every day?

“Yes we do (a few more words but no more qualifiers).”

edit - I mean I guess what else is is going to say? I still don’t have a sense for interpreting his statements but starting with face value.
 
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DJnVa

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It's a good question on why they preferred Kelenic over Grissom. Probably because Kelenic was cheap
Grissom is also cheap. Isn't it because Kelenic plays a different position at the ML level? They talked about maybe moving Grissom to the OF but if the kid is ready to hit at the big league level they may not want Grissom to learn a new position on the fly in the majors.
 

mikcou

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I am not a huge Vaughn Grissom guy, but this is a legitimately good trade. Even being a somewhat of a doubter, Grissom has legitimate tools and could settle in an as a good enough (i.e., fringe average) second basemen and has upside with the bat (although not without significant questions about how often he can really barrel the ball). He is a way more talented player than Enmanuel Valdez.

That said, the Braves didn't make this trade solely because Grissom was blocked; there are legitimate questions with both Grissom's defensive profile and his ability to square up major league pitching. He needs to get at least one of those questions answered or he has basically zero value. The obvious intriguing part is if he answers both he's a 4-5 win player (or more).
 

brandonchristensen

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If he can stick at 2B with average to above average defense (having Story opposite of him will help) - this could be a massive win. It’s like Mayer came early.
 

radsoxfan

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I am not a huge Vaughn Grissom guy, but this is a legitimately good trade. Even being a somewhat of a doubter, Grissom has legitimate tools and could settle in an as a good enough (i.e., fringe average) second basemen and has upside with the bat (although not without significant questions about how often he can really barrel the ball). He is a way more talented player than Enmanuel Valdez.

That said, the Braves didn't make this trade solely because Grissom was blocked; there are legitimate questions with both Grissom's defensive profile and his ability to square up major league pitching. He needs to get at least one of those questions answered or he has basically zero value. The obvious intriguing part is if he answers both he's a 4-5 win player (or more).
Agreed, I like him a lot more than Valdez. Not sure why that comp went out there.

He actually reminds me of a Xander a little bit (though unfortunately not as fluid as Xander in the field, which is why he wont stick at SS). Similar size, can dream a bit on the power, but not sure if it will come.

His minor league #s at age 20-22 compare favorably with Xander at 18-20...I know that 2 year difference is massive in prospect terms. But I really think the offense has a chance to be legit.

Slash line of .320/.407/.477/.884 in about 1500 minor league PA age 20-22 (never old for his league) as a potential 2B is nothing to sneeze at. Certainly seems worth paying a bit extra to give Sale to Atlanta on the cheap.
 

radsoxfan

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Hard not to love a reel full of oppo shots, but I'd also like to get them off the ground a bit.
His 80 Major league PA in 2023 were a mess, they didn't have much to work with on the highlight reel :). 0HR and only 4 XBH. -0.7 WAR in 23 games is tough to do, he was very bad.

His larger 2022 major league sample size of 156 PA at age 21 was much more promising. Not sure what happened last season in the majors (he was great at AAA) but hopefully just a blip.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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His 80 Major league PA in 2023 were a mess, they didn't have much to work with on the highlight reel :). 0HR and only 4 XBH. -0.7 WAR in 23 games is tough to do, he was very bad.

His larger 2022 major league sample size of 156 PA at age 21 was much more promising. Not sure what happened last season in the majors (he was great at AAA) but hopefully just a blip.
Pedroia's 98 PA cup of coffee in 2006 was a mess, and his first 80 PAs in 2007 were equally a mess. Good thing management didn't follow Jerry Remy's advice and bench him in favor of that genius Alex Cora.
 

MetSox1

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I mean if it works - big if - you've got an infield where all four guys can hit in the top half of the lineup locked in for about 60 mil a year for the next four years.

That's a hell of a place to start from.

Now - I also happen to think the outfield is a dumpster fire. I know others are higher, im not, and I think CF defense matters a lot on a team where the rest of the defense is - let's call it like it is - shitty. So let's get to work CB.

But really, a plus infield, plus plus bullpen, and a pile of cash isn't a bad place to be starting from.
 

Mike473

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I mean if it works - big if - you've got an infield where all four guys can hit in the top half of the lineup locked in for about 60 mil a year for the next four years.

That's a hell of a place to start from.

Now - I also happen to think the outfield is a dumpster fire. I know others are higher, im not, and I think CF defense matters a lot on a team where the rest of the defense is - let's call it like it is - shitty. So let's get to work CB.

But really, a plus infield, plus plus bullpen, and a pile of cash isn't a bad place to be starting from.
It is a big if for sure. But, there wasn't much of a need to keep Sale here any longer, and they might hit the lottery on this guy. Otherwise, someone will outplay him for the position in the longer term. Not much risk associated here. If Story can stay healthy, the defense is going to look a lot better.
 

grepal

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Pedroia's 98 PA cup of coffee in 2006 was a mess, and his first 80 PAs in 2007 were equally a mess. Good thing management didn't follow Jerry Remy's advice and bench him in favor of that genius Alex Cora.
Yeah, Pedroia started very poorly. Most of us were wondering what he was doing on the team, then, bangpeople like me looked like idiots.
 

grimshaw

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Grissom was the Braves #7 prospect in 2022.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/braves/
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55


If this guy had been in our system, he would have been one of our most highly touted prospects in many years.
Interesting that Fangraphs views him more as an FV 45.

I'm happy they moved on from Chris Sale, and got a major league ready guy. I just wish defense was prioritized for once. If they are stuck with Story and his contract and Mayer is up in the next season or two, then are you really going to slide Grissom to left?
Luckily he basically has a one year audition to seize 2b so I hope he does.
 
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P'tucket rhymes with...

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Interesting that Fangraphs views him more as an FV 45.

I'm happy they moved on from Chris Sale, and got a major league ready guy. I just wish defense was prioritized for once. If they are stuck with Story and his contract and Mayer is up in the next season or two, then are you really going to slide Grissom to left?
If Grissom is anywhere close to what we hope he can be in the next year or two, it seems unlikely CB would have difficulties moving an everyday player with four years of control left.
 

moondog80

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Keith Law on Grissom’s glove:

On defense, he has struggled at shortstop and projects to be average to a tick above at second base, although I could see him improving at the keystone once he plays there consistently.
 

bluefenderstrat

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I wonder if Grissom being sent back to AAA after his terrific 2022 cup of coffee resulted in trying to do too much in his limited ABs in 2023? Hopefully earning the 2B job and being told he’s up for good (on a team where he’s clearly the best option if he can provide ”acceptable” levels of D) helps.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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I wonder if Grissom being sent back to AAA after his terrific 2022 cup of coffee resulted in trying to do to much in his limited ABs in 2023? Hopefully earning the 2B job and being told he’s up for good (on a team where he’s clearly the best option if he can provide ”acceptable” levels of D) helps.
It's entirely possible. His walk rate dropped from 7.1% in 2022 to 2.5% in 2023, which does suggest more impatience. It's also possible that after his cup of coffee, teams had a better book on him and he wasn't around long enough to make the requisite adjustments.

Given his minor league performance, I don't think we can read too much into a sixty game sample size. Guys who post .900+ OPS in AA and AAA typically don't flame out entirely when they reach the big leagues.
 

6-5 Sadler

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Guys who post .900+ OPS in AA and AAA typically don't flame out entirely when they reach the big leagues.
I really like this trade but this just isn’t true. Guys flame out all the time in the big leagues after successful stints in AAA. Here is a link to the best offensive seasons in AAA since 2006 filtered by age 23 and younger (min: 300 PAs).

A lot of these players have gone on to big league success but there are quite a few busts as well. What gives me a little more confidence in Grissom is that many of the busts tend to have contact issues/trouble controlling the strike zone.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=1&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=300&type=1&team=&season=2006&seasonEnd=2023&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=true&players=&sort=20,1&filter=Age|lt|23&pageitems=100&pg=0

Edit 1: it seems like that list doesn’t populate unless you redo the age filter.

Edit 2: if you lower the age to 22 and add a filter for BB/K over .8, Grissom is 3rd in wRC+ behind James Loney and Elijah Dukes. #5 on the list…Dustin Pedroia.
 
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chawson

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A good contact, average plate discipline, medium power hitter with questions whether he can stick defensively at 2B sounds like…Ty France? Yangervis Solarte? Wilmer Flores? Thairo Estrada?

That’s a pretty useful profile with a good bat for Fenway, but much less so if he can’t stick at 2B. The fact that he turns only 23 next week is really great.
 
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BringBackMo

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I really like this trade but this just isn’t true. Guys flame out all the time in the big leagues after successful stints in AAA. Here is a link to the best offensive seasons in AAA since 2006 filtered by age 23 and younger (min: 300 PAs).

A lot of these players have gone on to big league success but there are quite a few busts as well. What gives me a little more confidence in Grissom is that many of the busts tend to have contact issues/trouble controlling the strike zone.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=1&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=300&type=1&team=&season=2006&seasonEnd=2023&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=true&players=&sort=20,1&filter=Age|lt|23&pageitems=100&pg=0

Edit 1: it seems like that list doesn’t populate unless you redo the age filter.

Edit 2: if you lower the age to 22 and add a filter for BB/K over .8, Grissom is 3rd in wRC+ behind James Loney and Elijah Dukes. #5 on the list…Dustin Pedroia.
You’ve been making a lot of good posts that add value (and data) to our discussions. Reminds me quite a bit of an excellent poster who went silent about two weeks ago. Keep posting!
 

pdaj

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I really, really love this deal for the Sox, especially after being disappointed that Sale (and others) were not dealt at last year's deadline.

Grissom's an uber-talented, high character player who just didn't have a place to play in Atlanta. While he made some strides at SS this past season (and could spell Story here and there in a pinch), he's a 2B -- and I think he has the chance to be really good there defensively.


In '22, there were murmurs that Albies would be possibly dealt and that Grissom would take the torch, but Ozzie's '23 season slammed that possibility shut.

I think Grissom has an approach well-versed for a high average (line drive, all-fields); and, of course, he's got a build that could fill out and help lead to more power in the future. Excited by this move!
 
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allmanbro

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They must like Kelenic a lot. Blocked by him (and somewhat by Ozuna) at LF, Albies at 2B (and Arcia at SS, but VG has so far showed to be a poor SS)
Kelenic and Grissom are also polar opposites as hitters. Kelenic whiffs all the time with huge power, Grissom makes tons of contact with uncertain power. The Braves may have reasons of organizational philosophy, or just lineup fit, to prefer Kelenic's profile.


Overall, even just next year fangraphs projects Grissom for 2.3 WAR. Combined with Story's (conservative IMO) 1.7 WAR projection, that's a pretty huge improvement over last year's MI production.
 

The Gray Eagle

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We surveyed a number of scouts and evaluators to get their read on what the Red Sox are getting. Reports were mixed.

SCOUT 1: “I think he got into the habit of being too fast on some routine plays in the infield and is in need of more game-speed experience. I guess I see him as an offense-first shortstop option who would, ultimately, fit better at second base.”

SCOUT 2: “Carries the profile of an offensive second baseman, but his defense can be underwhelming. Still, he should have everyday, run-producing value at Fenway.”

SCOUT 3: “I’m luke-warm on him. He really can’t play shortstop, and I see him being limited to either second base or a corner outfield spot. He has contact skills, but the power is not there. For me, not an impact guy.”

SCOUT 4: “It’s all about upside and patience with him. He has the talent to be a productive major league bat in the No. 2 hole in need of an OBP upgrade, strike zone (recognition) and walks. Has some defensive versatility and could play at second, short and the outfield, but we had some concerns about his ability to play shortstop. He should be able to hit and play second base. Has a good work ethic and can be tough on himself. Brings some instincts and attitude to develop. He’ll need some time (to develop further) at the major league level, sort of like (Triston) Casas did.”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/mlb-scouts-take-on-vaughn-grissom-acquired-in-chris-sale-trade.html
Keith Law on Grissom’s glove:
On defense, he has struggled at shortstop and projects to be average to a tick above at second base, although I could see him improving at the keystone once he plays there consistently.
The Red Sox had the worst second base defense in the majors last year by DRS at -12 runs.
https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leaders/teams

If Grissom is "average to a tick above" as Keith Law predicted, then he would be a vast improvement over what we had last year. The scouts quoted above were down on his defense at SS-- that is the position that they doubted he could stick at. Most seem to expect him to be average at 2B, and all said he can play there.

Based on the scouts quoted, it seems reasonable to expect him to be a big defensive improvement for us at second base next year-- somewhere around major league average there.
 

Niastri

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From the only baseball blog that I support on Patreon (obviously pre-trade and fantasy-focused):

Age23.3 - Grissom is a very bad defensive SS, and it's killing his opportunity for playing time. He put up a negative 5.8 Fangraphs defensive value in only 23 games, which is almost impressive. And his offensive profile really isn't good enough to hold onto in hopes they find time for him in the OF. His 27.1 ft/sec sprint was below average, and he only stole 13 bags in 15 attempts in 102 games at Triple-A. He's not a big power hitter with a low launch and a below average EV (86.2 MPH). The plate skills are plus with a 14.1%/12.0% K%/BB% at Triple-A, which led to a 135 wRC+, and the hit tool looked good in the majors too with a .280 BA, .278 xBA, and 18.8% K%. He's 6'3'', 210 pounds and he had a 88.2 MPH EV at Triple-A, so the power will most certainly be better by his mid 20's. If he had a defensive home, I would still like him as a potentially average to above average across the board type, but without a defensive home, he's nothing but a flier in most leagues. 2024 Projection: 39/8/33/.277/.335/.405/8 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.286/.358/.427/13

Edit: cut out some fantasy stuff.

Lordy, his BABIPs have been HIGH every year even though the EVs are meh. Weird.
Scouting reports keep referencing his hit tool. Does he have an unusually high line drive percentage driving up his BABIP?
 

simplicio

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His LD% in Atlanta this year sucked, but in 2022 it was 25%, which was higher than everyone on the 2023 Sox except Refsnyder (26.9) and Duran (25.6). It was also 28.2% in AAA this year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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My scepticism regarding most anything quoted here leaves me wondering how old this quote is.
From his B-Ref page, it appears Grissom's only time in the PR winter league was this winter. Six games at 3B, seven games in LF. He did not play 2B at all. Five other guys did (including old friend Jack Lopez for an inning). I suppose it could be he didn't play there because his manager didn't "see" him there, but it seems just as likely he wasn't there to play 2B at all. Considering he went there while still a Brave, and that he played any time at all in the outfield which he'd never done before in his professional career, I would guess he was there to work on new positions that gave him a better chance to make the Braves roster in 2024. Second base wasn't going to get him playing time (then again, neither was 3B).

I feel comfortable discounting what his manager has to say after seeing him play for only a couple weeks.
 

YTF

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From his B-Ref page, it appears Grissom's only time in the PR winter league was this winter. Six games at 3B, seven games in LF. He did not play 2B at all. Five other guys did (including old friend Jack Lopez for an inning). I suppose it could be he didn't play there because his manager didn't "see" him there, but it seems just as likely he wasn't there to play 2B at all. Considering he went there while still a Brave, and that he played any time at all in the outfield which he'd never done before in his professional career, I would guess he was there to work on new positions that gave him a better chance to make the Braves roster in 2024. Second base wasn't going to get him playing time (then again, neither was 3B).

I feel comfortable discounting what his manager has to say after seeing him play for only a couple weeks.
Thanks for doing the leg work on this. Given the reliability (or lack thereof) concerning these Tweets, updates, what have you, I could just imagine this being an assessment from a couple of years ago.
 

moondog80

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I feel comfortable discounting what his manager has to say after seeing him play for only a couple weeks.
It’s relevant. Not the definitive final word, but relevant. Other reports are less pessimistic. The Sox seem to believe in him. We’ll see. Right now I’m at “better glove than Emmanuel Valdez and better bat too, who hits right handed thus fits our lineup better”. Which, with 6 years of control, is a nice piece to have.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I just don’t know how you can say a guy can’t play second when he is a career infielder who has logged almost no time at second.

His defense metrics in a tiny sample at second in the majors are bad. Know why? He had literally never played there. It’s hard to explain how challenging it is to learn a new position as a 21 year old and who is skipping AAA and has 100 AA appearances.

This is a very young kid whose development path was completely botched by the Braves.

I hope the Red Sox tell him “you’re a second baseman. It is your sole focus from now until opening day.” That’s it. Don’t get cute and tell him to mix in some left field and third.

Turn a double play. Should be only thing he works on for the next 4 months. Sounds like he has the make up for it.

But this whole passing judgment on his defense at second is just incredibly arrogant and foolish. He’s 22 with little to no time at the position.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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But this whole passing judgment on his defense at second is just incredibly arrogant and foolish. He’s 22 with little to no time at the position.
McAdam updated the piece that @RedOctober3829 shared with another scout’s take, that was bullish on his ability at 2nd base.

I admit I too am dubious about the only take we’ve seen on him not being able to play 2b coming from a fan account tweet, and as noted, when he hasn’t played 2b in the PWL.

He was sent there to play LF, and I really haven’t seen a single take elsewhere that suggests he can’t play a good / at worst adequate 2b. They all reference him not having a position in Atlanta - because they have arguably the best 2b in the game on a stupid good contract. Boston doesn’t have that.

Atlanta was able to get a better version of Tyler Glasnow for about 1/5 the financial risk. They could do this because they have a ready made 2b prospect that is blocked AT THAT POSITION, and Boston had said better version of Glasnow, and is nowhere near the present team (nor pitching depth) to really get the best value out of said pitcher.

One of the “knocks“ on Bloom - for me at least - was never how smart he was. It was being suspect in his ability to ultimately execute a smart baseball deal with another smart baseball executive. This is what AA and Breslow just did. A trade can be good for both sides, and this one is.

In many ways it reminds me of the Torres for Chapman deal between Epstein and Chapman, based on the strengths of each team and where each was in the contention cycle.
 

BringBackMo

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I’m excited about the trade for Grissom. But I don’t think we should discount what this manager is saying. It’s one more piece of evidence. Others are more optimistic. But this guy presumably knows baseball and has seen Grissom up close actually playing the game. His opinion deserves to be added to the mix of those we should pay attention to.

Still, from the entirety of what SOSH has so far dug up, I remain cautiously optimistic that Grissom can play second.
 

BringBackMo

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It’s relevant. Not the definitive final word, but relevant. Other reports are less pessimistic. The Sox seem to believe in him. We’ll see. Right now I’m at “better glove than Emmanuel Valdez and better bat too, who hits right handed thus fits our lineup better”. Which, with 6 years of control, is a nice piece to have.
Well said.
 

A Bad Man

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In a year-old piece on Ron Washington’s work prepping Grissom for SS in ‘23, Washington comments on Grissom’s growth from the 2B crash course in ‘22 to the offseason/ST work in ‘23:
“He was more or less trying to show you that he was a smart kid and that he knew a little bit about baseball,” Washington said. “But he only was able to do what he knew. When you take what he knew, and you put it at the big league level, he didn't know [anything].
"He knows something now. But then he didn’t. He was surviving. If we were to have to put him at second base right now, he’d be a [heck] of a second baseman because of all he learned.”
As others have mentioned, he’s been juggled around and has had to compete and prepare for a variety of different scenarios as a young player.

If Romero is judging Grissom’s potential at 2B based on his play at 3B and in LF over a dozen games in an unfamiliar environment, as seems to be the case, we should be careful to weigh those comments against Washington’s.

To be clear, from what I have seen, Grissom is not gifted defensively. He was a butcher at SS last year. Yet it is important to consider his developmental context as we project his potential as an everyday 2B. Washington’s comments leave room for optimism.
 

YTF

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https://open.spotify.com/episode/08nwbi283RT9Jp6wvg4SB0?si=BfY37RQMS4-rJj9rf_Mr-Q

Fantastic overview of Vaughn from local Chris Clegg.

One of his main points, he was very rushed to the majors, spent essentially zero time at second beforehand. He’s very very young.
Yes. I mentioned upthread or in one of the other threads that I would hope that the Sox could get Pedrioa to take him under his wing and coach him up. Not just because of the way that he played the position, but also because of his experience when he was first brought up here. I also think that pairing him up with Story could also be quite valuable in his development as he can surely share his own, fairly recent experiences about transitioning from SS to 2B
 

absintheofmalaise

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I'd trust the judgement of Ron Washington over almost anyone else about whether he can play second at the major league level. I searched and I can't see where Romero was ever a coach or manager for Grissom at any level other than in winter ball this year. So he hasn't seen him at 2B as far as I can tell.
Here are the stats, including games played at different positions from B-Ref. He played a grand total of 26 games at second before he was called up to replace Albies in August of 2022. I can only go by what I saw from watching Braves games in 2022, but he looked decent there. Especially as a 212 yrear old who missed an entire season of development in 2020. Nothing like he looked at short in 2023. That was a disaster and probably also affected him at the plate.
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