The more NFL football I watch, the more convinced I am that the single most important factor in determining how good a QB will be in the NFL is the coaching he gets and the offensive system(s) he's put in. After that probably comes the offensive talent around him, then his health, and then the player's own talent is...not entirely irrelevant, but far less important than most people would have you believe. A few data points:
--Look at how well Matt Moore, Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater have done this year off the bench under very smart offensive coaches and coordinators. (How would Luke Falk have done in one of their places?)
--Is Josh Rosen really worse than Josh Allen, or has he simply been put in historically awful situations two years running?
--Lamar Jackson has a coach who has been both willing and able of designing a system to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.
--Jimmy Garoppolo has been blessed with Bill Belichick and Kyle Shanahan as his two coaches; same for Jacoby Brissett and Belichick + Frank Reich. (And we all remember how competent Matt Cassel looked under Belichick...)
--How bad would Jared Goff be without Sean McVay? (And how bad is he without 100% Todd Gurley?)
--What happened to Baker Mayfield between Year 1 and Year 2?
--Is Patrick Mahomes *really* that great? I mean, he's clearly good, but how good does his coaching and supporting offensive cast make him look? Stick him in, I dunno, Tennessee...would he have anything like the same impact?
And that's mostly just looking at young and/or relatively inexperienced QBs. I've spent a lot of time watching Matt Ryan wax and wane under different coaches and coordinators, and I'm not convinced he's any less good this year than he was in his MVP year (with Shanahan pulling the strings); he's just been put in a much worse situation, and so he looks significantly worse. I'm tempted to say that if he or any one of a dozen other QBs currently in the NFL had been drafted by the Patriots, they now might be thought of as one of the GOATs, whereas if TB12 had wound up in Tennessee or Miami or Arizona or Cincinnati, his career could have looked like Andy Dalton's. Is that sacrilege? Or is it just a testament to the ridiculously large importance of coaching in the modern NFL?
I'm not exactly breaking new ground by suggesting that good or bad coaching can make or break a quarterback, but I think the extent to which this is true has been dramatically undersold - and this season in particular has convinced me that good NFL coaches should be making as much if not more money than the best NFL players. Is this thesis sound? Would good GMs with outstanding offensive coaches be smart to let their cheap young QBs move on when they start to become expensive (as they often do with running backs, albeit often independent of the quality of the coaching they're getting)? Is there any other sport in which the quality of coaching has even remotely the same impact that it does in the NFL? Or am I wrong, and do quarterbacks ultimately bear the primary responsibility for their own destinies as players?
--Look at how well Matt Moore, Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater have done this year off the bench under very smart offensive coaches and coordinators. (How would Luke Falk have done in one of their places?)
--Is Josh Rosen really worse than Josh Allen, or has he simply been put in historically awful situations two years running?
--Lamar Jackson has a coach who has been both willing and able of designing a system to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.
--Jimmy Garoppolo has been blessed with Bill Belichick and Kyle Shanahan as his two coaches; same for Jacoby Brissett and Belichick + Frank Reich. (And we all remember how competent Matt Cassel looked under Belichick...)
--How bad would Jared Goff be without Sean McVay? (And how bad is he without 100% Todd Gurley?)
--What happened to Baker Mayfield between Year 1 and Year 2?
--Is Patrick Mahomes *really* that great? I mean, he's clearly good, but how good does his coaching and supporting offensive cast make him look? Stick him in, I dunno, Tennessee...would he have anything like the same impact?
And that's mostly just looking at young and/or relatively inexperienced QBs. I've spent a lot of time watching Matt Ryan wax and wane under different coaches and coordinators, and I'm not convinced he's any less good this year than he was in his MVP year (with Shanahan pulling the strings); he's just been put in a much worse situation, and so he looks significantly worse. I'm tempted to say that if he or any one of a dozen other QBs currently in the NFL had been drafted by the Patriots, they now might be thought of as one of the GOATs, whereas if TB12 had wound up in Tennessee or Miami or Arizona or Cincinnati, his career could have looked like Andy Dalton's. Is that sacrilege? Or is it just a testament to the ridiculously large importance of coaching in the modern NFL?
I'm not exactly breaking new ground by suggesting that good or bad coaching can make or break a quarterback, but I think the extent to which this is true has been dramatically undersold - and this season in particular has convinced me that good NFL coaches should be making as much if not more money than the best NFL players. Is this thesis sound? Would good GMs with outstanding offensive coaches be smart to let their cheap young QBs move on when they start to become expensive (as they often do with running backs, albeit often independent of the quality of the coaching they're getting)? Is there any other sport in which the quality of coaching has even remotely the same impact that it does in the NFL? Or am I wrong, and do quarterbacks ultimately bear the primary responsibility for their own destinies as players?