Why did they not onside kick down 20-17? The game was over on one first down anyways, field position really doesn't matter there.
There was 2:10 left and the Pats had a timeout. So I think the thinking was that if the defense held them to 3 and out, they get the ball back with at least a minute left. I think that was a clear mistake, though, not just in hindsight. If they recover the onside they are in much better position: the ball, the 2:00 warning, one time out, needing a FG to tie. Seems like an inexplicably terrible decision, maybe justified by BB thinking that his onside kick unit would fuck it up like the rest of the ST units.
I think the biggest goats for this one have to be the coaching staff. The team wasn't ready for this game in any phase. That's inexcusable. Important, national TV game, defending a 7 game win streak and the players and coaches somehow phoned one in.
This game, as much as it looked like a blowout, ultimately came down to turnovers. If you count blocked punts as turnovers, then the Patriots are 27-21 on the season for plus 6. On an individual game basis, they have lost the turnover/blocked punt battle 6 times and are 1-5 in those games. They have won it 7 times (7-0), and they were even once (1-0).
In this game they gained the McCourty pick but lost 2 picks and had a punt bock for touchdown. So they were -2 in a game they lost by 10. If they are even instead of -2, they maybe win this.
Another culprit was special teams. They literally gave the Colts 10 points in a game they lost by 10, first on the blocked punt/TD and then by giving a do over after the Colts missed a FG. That was Brandon King jumping offside, a guy whose one job is special teams.
As to specific people:
1. Mac. It has to be Mac. His clear worst game of the season. He, and the Pats offense more generally, played 2.5 quarters looking like scared little boys. No compete at all out of the unit. Mac lost track of the playclock on one drive and picked up a delay of game penalty. The 2 interceptions were both terrible, Mac not seeing a defender on one and Mac laser-focused on one player (letting the D read him) on the other. The first took at least 3 and possibly 7 points off the board for the Pats, the second turned it over in FG range. It was good to see him turn things around at the end, but that underscores how awful he was for most of the game.
2. McDaniels. This game looked as if the Colts knew every play that was coming. Too many running plays where a Colt defender was able to lounge around in the backfield for a while before making the easy TFL. The Colts seemed to have their defensive players set wide and they seemed to have more than enough speed to cover sideline to sideline. Yet McDaniels' offensive approach seemed to be "lets beat them to the end." They did not really even try to run between the tackles. On the 4th down conversion that they missed, McD called for the rollout short pass play that had worked a couple of times in the past, and the Colts were ready for it and disrupted it. But, again, why not try the middle?
3. Meyers. Immediately before the blocked punt, Mac threw deep to Meyers and Meyers dropped it. Might have been a hard catch, but for a guy with Meyers' attributes to be a starting WR in the NFL, he can't be dropping balls.
Hunter Henry had a nice game. Mac looked good from the start of the last drive of the third to the end. Collins/McCourty combining for a key interception was great.
A couple of plays late that didn't bother me so much:
- Taylor's 67-yard TD. The Pats had everyone up on this play because a Colts first down basically ends the game. So once Taylor broke through he was going to score. In fact, once Taylor broke through it was probably better (for the Pats) that he score. If, instead, he stops on the 10 instead of running it in, then Indy just kneels it out the rest of the way. The play was set up for Hightower to make the tackle and he didn't. The rest didn't matter.
- Mac's crazy underhanded heave to avoid a sack at the very end. 99 times out of 100 this is a terrible thing for a QB to do. This was the one time it wasn't. It is 3rd and 10 with 1:22 at the snap. If Mac is sacked, the clock runs. If he throws incomplete, the clock stops and they get one more shot (4th and 10) with 1:15. If Mac gets sacked the clock runs and they have to rush to the line and convert 4th and more than 10 with time running off. If the ball is picked, they lose the 4th and 10 chance, which was a miniscule chance to begin with. If Mac makes a habit of that kind of thing it will bit the Pats, but here it did not cost them much.