The first tip on the first INT was JCJ. He tipped it up, someone else (DMac?) tipped it away from the WR, and JCJ then corralled it.Guy that got the tip on first INT. That set the tone.Folk. Maybe Harris/White on O but that’s it on that side of the ball.
This. He is throwing to C level receivers and his TE’s aren’t really elite. Throw in the fact the OL isn’t that great and he has looked pretty solid in 2 weeks.I'll add that Mac's floor looks like "solid game manager," which has plenty of value. No one could get separation and the O-line was terrible, yet he still put up reasonable looking numbers by hitting passes that were available.
I love Phillips game. He has some swagger and he seems to love hitting. I hope they can extend him for a few more years at reasonable money.Phillips and Dugger were really good today. Credit where credit is due, Bentley made some plays and moved the pocket on some pass rushes.
I guess that depends on how you define elite. They're not Kelce, Waller, or Kittle but they're pretty damn good TEs and are paid accordingly.This. He is throwing to C level receivers and his TE’s aren’t really elite. Throw in the fact the OL isn’t that great and he has looked pretty solid in 2 weeks.
For 3 down, I'd say: O-line, D-line, O-line. The Jets run game was pretty substantial until it was clear that Wilson was an INT factory, and kept them in the game. I expect a lot of short games this year, with the Pats running and play action short passing game, versus other teams running til the Pats can't stop them.3 up: Harris, Uche, JCJ. (HM: White, Judon, Bentley, Folk)
3 down: O-line, O-line, o-line
Wilson also seems like he has either the inability to even see where the defense is or has no idea how to read coverages. Mac seems the complete opposite.After watching Wilson shit the bed, I really appreciate how the Pats are working with Jones. His situation is better with the Pats than it would be with the Jets and he could use a little more help from the line and the receivers. It hasn't been ideal but it hasn't been a disaster either.
Really thought the TEs would be more active than they’ve been the first 2 games.While I thought the team looked good today I'll say the play calling has been gas station level vanilla ice cream. I hope at some point this changes. Seems like every third down was a screen pass.
14 receptions in two games isn't enough (after the TE position had... 16 all of last year?)Really thought the TEs would be more active than they’ve been the first 2 games.
Yeah I came away from this game thinking I don’t remember a time I was this concerned with a 19 point win but the run D is bad, the OL went from issues all over to terrible OT play, and the receiving group including the TEs looks ok but nothing special. I’m glad they got some chunk plays and I know this group needs time to gel and this is an extension of the preseason but they have their work cut out for them if they want to be competitive with better teams.I'll add that Mac's floor looks like "solid game manager," which has plenty of value. No one could get separation and the O-line was terrible, yet he still put up reasonable looking numbers by hitting passes that were available.
For this offense, probably not. And it’s more about yardage for me.14 receptions in two games isn't enough (after the TE position had... 16 all of last year?)
Yeah, I'm kinda disappointed by the team so far this year. If Wilson hadn't thrown a ridiculous-almost-nver-happens 4 picks, it would've been much closer against a team we should've dominated. Mac has been everything we hoped so that's most important but the OL and DL are struggling and it seems we need to get a quality backup OT and big ass DT. I mean, aren't we kinda light at DT?Run defense and pass blocking have problems. Those issues need to be addressed for this team to be good.
No idea if they were playing light on early downs, but the Pat's D playing the pass against a QB having a horrible night put the Jets in the position of having to stick to the run game even when behind, shortening the game.Run D seemed bad on 1st and 2nd, but came up with some big 3rd and 4th down stops. Are they playing light on the early downs and heavy in obvious run situations? With as bad as Wilson was it would seem like teeing off on the run would be a good idea, but maybe playing for the pass paid off with the picks.
White, Secondary, Harris, Folk get game balls from me.
The OL is an absolute concern and the receiving group, yeah, at the absolute very least they need time to gel... (really, I'm either concerned with the receiving group or I'm concerned with McCorkle's conservatism and I don't know which), but I'm really not particularly concerned about the run defense. It hasn't been great so far, but both the Jets and Dolphins had overall a negative EPA/play while rushing the ball. Negative EPA might sound great, but it's really not really run defense; they gave up -0.01 EPA/rush against the Dolphins and -0.06 against the Jets today. I'm not going to spend the time to weight for carries, but -0.035 EPA per rush against would have ranked about league average last year. (The Patriots last year were 29th overall, at +0.022.)Yeah I came away from this game thinking I don’t remember a time I was this concerned with a 19 point win but the run D is bad, the OL went from issues all over to terrible OT play, and the receiving group including the TEs looks ok but nothing special. I’m glad they got some chunk plays and I know this group needs time to gel and this is an extension of the preseason but they have their work cut out for them if they want to be competitive with better teams.
Game ball to the secondary.
I hate that I don't know where this conservatism is coming from. Is it the playcalling, is it guys not getting open downfield, or is it on Jones? I certainly hope it's the playcalling, but, again, I just don't know.They need to take the training wheels off Mac. I understand he will take the checkdowns and that's a good thing, but I think Josh can do more to get him throwing down the field. They have 0 throws into the end zone through 2 weeks.
Has to be this week. New Orleans is really tough to run on so we’ll have to throw. I’d like to see Mac get to throw a bit more, especially since it’ll be a necessity against Tampa. Like, that game figures to be a serious ass kicking based on what we’ve seen so far.They need to take the training wheels off Mac. I understand he will take the checkdowns and that's a good thing, but I think Josh can do more to get him throwing down the field. They have 0 throws into the end zone through 2 weeks.
He's said he can do a better job of pushing the ball, but it seems to my untrained eye they are making sure he's not overloaded. I would imagine each week Josh will get a little more aggressive.I hate that I don't know where this conservatism is coming from. Is it the playcalling, is it guys not getting open downfield, or is it on Jones? I certainly hope it's the playcalling, but, again, I just don't know.
Isn’t it a bit premature to demand this though? Whether it is play calling, Mac’s intuition and inclination to checkdown, or guys not getting open—all the same it’s good to let him get acclimated, and that he’s not pressing. I just don’t think we can draw any conclusions as of now, other than, he’s clearly not hurting the team—which is pretty much the best thing you can say for a rookie getting adjusted. Come back after week 5 and if he still isn’t taking any shots we can talk. But until then, let him work it out. Hell, the Pats and Brady typically took the first five weeks to work things out each year. Why can’t we expect the same for Mac?I hate that I don't know where this conservatism is coming from. Is it the playcalling, is it guys not getting open downfield, or is it on Jones? I certainly hope it's the playcalling, but, again, I just don't know.
Yeah I’ve been thinking about this all afternoon and ultimately whether it is due to Mac playing conservatively, Josh calling plays conservatively, the O line not playing well, or the WRs not getting open… I’m not overly concerned. Last week was his first ever game. This week was his first road game. He faced a zero blitzing Flores D last week and a Saleh defense this week. He has managed the game and run the offense well. He has only panicked on a very small handful of plays. He has not had any killer mistakes. It will only get better from here.Isn’t it a bit premature to demand this though? Whether it is play calling, Mac’s intuition and inclination to checkdown, or guys not getting open—all the same it’s good to let him get acclimated, and that he’s not pressing. I just don’t think we can draw any conclusions as of now, other than, he’s clearly not hurting the team—which is pretty much the best thing you can say for a rookie getting adjusted. Come back after week 5 and if he still isn’t taking any shots we can talk. But until then, let him work it out. Hell, the Pats and Brady typically took the first five weeks to work things out each year. Why can’t we expect the same for Mac?
I didn't mean that as a criticism of Jones, I'm saying that because Gamepass still doesn't have the All-22 I literally do not know which one it is. I absolutely love what I've seen so far; not only has he been substantially better than the other rookies, he's been real solid in a absolute sense.Isn’t it a bit premature to demand this though? Whether it is play calling, Mac’s intuition and inclination to checkdown, or guys not getting open—all the same it’s good to let him get acclimated, and that he’s not pressing. I just don’t think we can draw any conclusions as of now, other than, he’s clearly not hurting the team—which is pretty much the best thing you can say for a rookie getting adjusted. Come back after week 5 and if he still isn’t taking any shots we can talk. But until then, let him work it out. Hell, the Pats and Brady typically took the first five weeks to work things out each year. Why can’t we expect the same for Mac?
Absolutely, you're right, I didn't properly factor in that the Jets and Dolphins are pretty shitty at running the ball, which they certainly are-- or at least certainly were last year. That absolutely would change the outlook. If there's not actually improvement from last year, it's going to be a problem. At the same time, I think the central point holds true: they don't need to be good at stopping the run, just not as bad as they were last year, in no small part because it might actually be advantageous to not be great at stopping the run. If they can hold to the current level of opponent production, it's won't be a notable issue. If these two games are going to end up as relative outliers because the Jets and Dolphins are just particularly bad at running the ball (which, again, upon actual reflection and examination, yeah they do kinda suck, so these two games might well end up as outliers), then it's gonna be a real concern. I'm not remotely well-versed at all in the intricacies of running the ball or run defense, so I don't have that much to go off of besides production numbers.I truly don’t care what the EPA of said runs were because EPA is contextual and the context here is it was against the Fins and the Jets. Obviously run defense is less important than pass defense. Also, the base run EPA last year was -0.108. Seems like they are worse than that. Plus it is against two teams who have shitty OLs. Again EPA isn’t adjusting for that. Their DL got pushed back against the Jets OL. Look what the Jets did against Carolina on the ground vs the Pats. Same for Miami vs us compared to Buffalo. You focus a lot on EPA buts it’s not a one stop shop. The context around it matters. We agree on the relative importance of run defense. We also agree on the difference between an elite run defense and a poor one is way less, for lack of better words, impactful than an elite pass D vs a poor one. But saying you aren’t concerned because some contextual stats showed they were league average against two teams with poor OLs (I’d expect them to have a top 10 EPA against those teams) to me shows an over reliance on a stat which isn’t perfect. And if you routinely give up 4+ yards against the run, again, when you play a better team you’re going to start to feel that pain.
I don't think there's opponent-adjusted EPA numbers out there, or at least if there are I'm not aware of them. DVOA is better for that, but I believe it phases in the opponent adjustment over time, so like with the 2019 Pats early on they were posting ungodly historic numbers on defense, and even though everyone involved could recognize that they were playing against teams and QBs that were pretty much shit and that they were actually probably not the best defensive unit in the history of the game, that's how the numbers were until those adjustments were phased in. (And I'd be more inclined to reference DVOA for team-wide performance, but it wasn't available on Sunday after the game before it was put behind a paywall. There are only so many paywalls I'm willing to climb.) You could absolutely make an opponent-adjusted EPA stat, you're just not going to get good opponent-adjusted stats on a two-game sample, as I think you said in the edit. There's no statistic in existence that's going to let you do that. Even if you could, EPA is a very noisy stat, particularly over small samples (Jones's number today, for instance, was kinda killed by that one sack I think he had zero fault in on third down that took them out of field goal range early on; that sack was about as bad as one of Wilson's interceptions), so trying to use two games to project forward even with opponent adjustments is not something I'd do if I was putting money down on stuff.I’m curious - do you know of a stat that adjusts EPA or anything like that based on the relative effectiveness of a team? I know DVOA tries to kind of do that but it’s a black box and it is more complicated than that. Because I like using EPA for like an entire season or something where they play a bunch of teams so the balance of schedule is… well it balances out. But here it’s two games. And I’d argue two games against bad OLs. If we could just reflect that somehow… but that’s not what EPA is for or is built to do. I’m also wondering what kind of a sample size you’d want before really diving into EPA. What do you think? Would imagine 4 games would be a good point to look for trends… that’s probably around 200+ plays on offense and defense. Is there an argument for more or less? Sorry if I came on strong earlier. I should have asked questions like the above to explain more some concerns I had with it. No disagreement with the importance of run defense although I thought it would be a strength of the team with their front 7 this year and their struggles there have been one of the most surprising developments to me about the team.
Edit: and then I’m asking about an adjusted EPA based on what? Two games of data? You could do a DAVE stat so tie it to last year if adjusted I guess. Anyway - questions still remain on if you know a stat that does that.
I want to believe that at least some of their problems on both sides of the ball relate to all of the new personnel compared to last year and it being early in the season.Edit: this is also an issue to me when they have 8+ in the box and are geared to stop the run and get gashed anyway. Sometimes the problem is guys like Godchaux getting beat. Other times it’s when LBs overflow and can’t adjust to the cutback. Other times it’s LBs and safeties getting blocked out of the play. Last week it was more between the tackles issues. This week it was on the outside. They just aren’t winning enough 1:1 and too many guys aren’t stacking and shedding. And this is against the Jets and Fins!
I was watching the game with my cousin yesterday... and there was a play in the 3rd quarter where I said "And that is how you set the edge!" as Hightower was right there. Turns out that he was unblocked. Not even Freeman bad unblocked, but, literally, unblocked.You know who doesn't get a game ball? The DE's or LB's, whichever is responsible for setting the edge. They sucked at it yesterday.
Despite it being the Dolphins in both games this is almost an apples to oranges comparison---we faced Miami with a rookie making their first ever start with a ton of new guys and in their second game the Fins lost their starting QB in the first quarter. If the upshot is that we aren't as good as Buffalo in week 2, I'm not sure anyone thought we would be.Could have won week one but didn't to a Miami team that got absolutely smoked at home in week 2.