The Game Ball Thread: Week 8 vs Chargers
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Brady had a solid game overall, avoided mistakes. RBs were kind of varied. Ghost missed two kicks. I'd probably give the ball to the next man up defense for picking up the slack after Hightower went out.
Defense gets a game ball. They played well, aside from that 1 play in the 1st quarter. That play sucked.
You know who doesn't get a game ball? Ghost. He doesn't get a game ball. Pushed one right, yanked one left. Oh well. The game didn't have to be this close, Mr. Ghost.
You know who else doesn't get a game ball? McDaniels. He doesn't get a game ball because I thought that from the end of the first half on, his offensive play calls sucked ass. 31st ranked run defense? Running game has been OK so far this game? HEY LET'S FUCKING THROW THE BALL.
You know who doesn't get a game ball? Ghost. He doesn't get a game ball. Pushed one right, yanked one left. Oh well. The game didn't have to be this close, Mr. Ghost.
You know who else doesn't get a game ball? McDaniels. He doesn't get a game ball because I thought that from the end of the first half on, his offensive play calls sucked ass. 31st ranked run defense? Running game has been OK so far this game? HEY LET'S FUCKING THROW THE BALL.
Waddle gets a tip of the cap for how he played in relief of Cannon. It wasn’t pretty but he didn’t let Bosa or Ingram wreck the game.
Hogan and Gronk had some huge catches in the second half. Jonathan Jones continues to play serviceably.
Brady hung in there and played pretty well too.
Team effort, no individual game balls truly deserved today IMO. Maybe Dante.
Hogan and Gronk had some huge catches in the second half. Jonathan Jones continues to play serviceably.
Brady hung in there and played pretty well too.
Team effort, no individual game balls truly deserved today IMO. Maybe Dante.
If I stopped watching NFL games, it would be because of games like this. The fucking penalties against both sides were so arbitrary. I hate after every play, that you have to clench up expecting a flag.
The Pats are bad in the red zone this year.
They won but played ugly. I will go with Burkhead and White on offense as the heroes and Harris made a few good plays for the defense.
The Pats are bad in the red zone this year.
They won but played ugly. I will go with Burkhead and White on offense as the heroes and Harris made a few good plays for the defense.
9 posts and not one game ball for James White?
What game were you all watching?
So, James White.
Edit: #9 did mention White my bad.
What game were you all watching?
So, James White.
Edit: #9 did mention White my bad.
White really was excellent. I feel like half his plays were on 3rd and long early in drives and if we don't convert those it changes everything. The way he juked Addai out of his soul early in the game was a thing of beauty.
Roberts came up with some pretty big tackles too. Overall D was good but let's show some love to Roberts and Harris, they weren't perfect but they came up with some huge plays.
Roberts came up with some pretty big tackles too. Overall D was good but let's show some love to Roberts and Harris, they weren't perfect but they came up with some huge plays.
Burkhead was really good too, but, yeah, White. He does everything and plays his ass off.
Also, Gronk. We take him for granted. I don't watch Kelce or Ertz or whoever that much. But I can't believe any of them are the same package of offensive threat and offensive line support as Gronk.
Also, Gronk. We take him for granted. I don't watch Kelce or Ertz or whoever that much. But I can't believe any of them are the same package of offensive threat and offensive line support as Gronk.
Several stupid penalties negated nice runs and/or put them in long distance downs.
What happened near halftime with Gostolowski? He kicked a FG I think, and he along with the holder and other people were all standing around looking at the ground versus celebrating. He then kicked off and then he was shown running into the tunnel with his helmet off.
Did he maybe pull something or tweaked an injury because of bad footing?
Was at bar so couldn't hear sound.
Did he maybe pull something or tweaked an injury because of bad footing?
Was at bar so couldn't hear sound.
I give game balls to:
James White — for his plays with the ball and his excellent chip-blocking
Jonathan Jones — not only for the safety and the game-ending INT (bonus point for knowing to kneel after the catch), but also for being rarely the victim of Rivers, who unlike past QBs, clearly had a game plan to attack Bademosi
Kyle Van Noy — who seems to get better every game
James White — for his plays with the ball and his excellent chip-blocking
Jonathan Jones — not only for the safety and the game-ending INT (bonus point for knowing to kneel after the catch), but also for being rarely the victim of Rivers, who unlike past QBs, clearly had a game plan to attack Bademosi
Kyle Van Noy — who seems to get better every game
Benjamin, who also didn't go out of bounds when he could have on the first play of the chargers last drive. So yes, he gets a game ball. I'm going to give one to the refs too for taking a Charger TD off the board with a terrible OPI call when 2 Pats collided
I was really talking about series where they would pass on first down, then run a stupid draw or other useless run play on 2nd and 10, and then be forced to throw on third down. It happened quite a few times in the 2nd half. It seemed like they just stopped running on first down, even though the run game had been mostly effective, aside from the stupid penalties.
The announcers were Fouts and Eagle. Do you really think they even noticed Ghost going to the tunnel?
They didn't say a word about any of that.
If you're asking why he left the stadium, it's not unusual for inactive players to leave:
(If you're asking whether it was injury vs. some kind of coach's decision, I don't know)
Okay...in game thread there were some phrasing it as him "walking out". I thought I had heard that it was normal. Although why that is I have no idea. Why not stay?
How much is a safety type typically worth in game equity? I found myself wondering about this in today's game. More valuable than a FG presumably, given that change of possession also takes place (plus recovering team typically gets excellent field position). Less valuable than a touchdown, presumably.
4.5 points?
4.5 points?
Yeah, Ian Eagle saying he "left the stadium" made everyone on Twitter freak out. But it seems like every week, one Pats beat guy or another is tweeting "saw so and so in the parking lot, so I guess he's inactive."
Here's an old Kyed tweet about Eric Rowe (and everybody freaking out in the replies):
Per this: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/09/whats-safety-really-worth.html
A TD is worth 6.3 points.
A safety is worth 3.6 points
A FG is worth 2.3 points
A TD is worth 6.3 points.
A safety is worth 3.6 points
A FG is worth 2.3 points
Wasn't able to watch the game; there have been problems with Gillette turf being too soft all year - any chance the missed FGs had something to do with bad foot plants due to turf quality?
Maybe IdiotKicker can weigh in on this topic?
Gostkowski's kicks seem to have way more side to side movement than other kickers that I see in football. Guys hit these nice, straight kicks from the 35 all year. Gostkowski's zig and zag all over the place.
My math has them running on 11/16 first downs in the second half. Those 11 carries netted 42 yards, though they did add 15 on a facemask.
EDIT: for the game they averaged 3 yards per run and more than 7 per pass, and they did run it 32 times, so it's not like they didn't try to run it.
The logic in that short article appears to me to be flawed.
A "typical" TD (i.e., not including situations where going for 2 is likely) is worth, in an absolute sense, 6 points plus whatever fraction of attempted PATs are made - so less than 7 but close to 7. According to that article it seems that the expected points after receiving a kickoff is 0.7. So actually scoring a touchdown and converting the PAT is worth almost 7 points, or almost +6.3 above expectation, sure, but not because the other team is expected to answer with 0.7. That's because you shouldn't deduct the 0.7 pts opponent's scoring expectation for the ensuing drive because then, for that logic's sake, you'd also have to add the expected scoring expectation from the average starting position of a team re-obtaining the ball after having kicked off. You'd also have to keep iterating on the following negative and positive expectations. It'd be silly.
The most sensible baseline is simply the expected points for a team after receiving a kickoff.
A safety should be valued at 2 pts, plus 1.6 pts (because in other situations the safety-scoring team wouldn't otherwise have reacquired the ball), minus whatever the scoring expectation of the team giving up the safety was at the average down/LOS of which safeties occur, minus the scoring expectation is of where the average position teams take over if the offense doesn't score when they are in that down/LOS (since that'd be the alternative to getting the ball at their own 40).
I'm guessing the differences between doing it correctly and doing it the way that article did it aren't worth the effort, and probably not even worth the effort I just put into this post, but I can't not.
The most sensible baseline is simply the expected points for a team after receiving a kickoff.
A safety should be valued at 2 pts, plus 1.6 pts (because in other situations the safety-scoring team wouldn't otherwise have reacquired the ball), minus whatever the scoring expectation of the team giving up the safety was at the average down/LOS of which safeties occur, minus the scoring expectation is of where the average position teams take over if the offense doesn't score when they are in that down/LOS (since that'd be the alternative to getting the ball at their own 40).
I'm guessing the differences between doing it correctly and doing it the way that article did it aren't worth the effort, and probably not even worth the effort I just put into this post, but I can't not.
Bademosi gets a ball. Some completions were made with him in coverage but they weren't really on him -- just great throws and catches. He was in such good position that he drew an OPI to prevent a pick (Rivers shouldn't have thrown that one), and then on the long catch that was called back for illegal touching I thought it was a veteran play to force the receiver out of bounds AND a good play to recover and almost make a play on the ball. I think he's been impressive.
Bad reffing all game but I think it more or less cost both teams evenly.
Bad reffing all game but I think it more or less cost both teams evenly.
Not sure where to put this, and don't think it's worth a new thread. ESPN article posted tonight suggests Carson Wentz is the league MVP through the halfway mark.
Uh..... No.
Wentz: 61.6%, 1,852 yds, 7.98 ypa, 17 td, 4 int, 104.0 rating, Eagles 7-1
Brady: 66.4%, 2,208 yds, 8.43 ypa, 15 td, 2 int, 108.4 rating, Pats 6-2
Smith: 72.4%, 1,979 yds, 8.68 ypa, 15 td, 0 int, 120.5 rating, Chiefs 5-2
Yes the Eagles are a wonderful surprise this year. Yes Wentz is playing great. But Brady and Smith are having substantially better years, and it's not like the Pats and Chiefs are middling teams. They're just a game behind Philly in the loss column.
Uh..... No.
Wentz: 61.6%, 1,852 yds, 7.98 ypa, 17 td, 4 int, 104.0 rating, Eagles 7-1
Brady: 66.4%, 2,208 yds, 8.43 ypa, 15 td, 2 int, 108.4 rating, Pats 6-2
Smith: 72.4%, 1,979 yds, 8.68 ypa, 15 td, 0 int, 120.5 rating, Chiefs 5-2
Yes the Eagles are a wonderful surprise this year. Yes Wentz is playing great. But Brady and Smith are having substantially better years, and it's not like the Pats and Chiefs are middling teams. They're just a game behind Philly in the loss column.
The 108.4 rating for Brady is outstanding. We all fear when his inevitable age decline happens but here we are, another half season in, and it's still nowhere in sight
They've made significant changes to the turf at Gillette twice, including replacing it earlier this year. At a certain point, he's gotta make the kicks. I had concerns even before this week because the average distance of his attempts was the second-shortest in the league, and he simply wasn't being challenged on kicks.
It looks to me like he's almost jamming himself a bit and working too inside-out. His balance has never quite gotten back to where it was before the struggles on XPs last year, and I don't love that he moved his XP location, as his alignment should create the same angle through the center upright every time anyways. That's a sign there's something in his head, and when there's something in a kicker's head, it's not good.
Expect high-level competition next summer at a minimum, but you're not seeing any changes this year unless yesterday's performance starts to happen regularly.
IK, thanks for that. The turf replacements have been well documented, but your insight on Ghost's alignment and mechanics - not to mention speculation of maybe something going on mentally - is really valuable. Cheers!
Ok good catch. Brady is on pace for 5,082 yards, 32 td, 4 int, and 66.4% rating. Holy crap.
Just because...... Doesn't it make the people who thought that somehow playing with footballs lower than 12.5 somehow gives Brady a significant advantage look absolutely, completely ridiculous? Since the 2015 AFCCG victory over Indy, Brady has been even BETTER than he ever was before. I'll put up the stats later if anyone wants to see, but my goodness.
Brady since Deflategate (halftime of the 2015 AFCCG):
2014 playoffs (1.5 games): 49-64 (76.6%), 459 yds, 7.2 ypa, 6 td, 2 int
2015-17 regular season (36 games): 899-1365 (65.9%), 10,865 yds, 8.0 ypa, 80 td, 11 int
2015-16 playoffs (5 games): 148-240 (61.7%), 1,749 yds, 7.3 ypa, 10 td, 5 int
TOTALS
42.5 games: 1,096-1,669 (65.7%), 13,073 yds, 7.8 ypa, 96 td, 18 int (5.3:1 td-int ratio), 102.3 rating
Just to compare...here's what Brady did just in the regular season (where his numbers were better than his playoff numbers) from 2007-2014 (his peak passing years), when he may have been using under inflated footballs, per the skeptics:
113 games: 2,655-4,104 (64.7%), 31,694 yds, 7.7 ypa, 245 td, 65 int (3.8:1 td-int ratio), 101.5 rating
So as he's aged into his 40s, using completely legal footballs*, and even including his playoff numbers which are worse than his regular season numbers, Tom Brady has been significantly better since Deflategate than he was in his prime years leading up to it, even when you compare his numbers to Brady's regular season only stats.
In other words, Deflategate people can shove it up their asses.
*The NFL is sooooooooo stupid. Just saying....
2014 playoffs (1.5 games): 49-64 (76.6%), 459 yds, 7.2 ypa, 6 td, 2 int
2015-17 regular season (36 games): 899-1365 (65.9%), 10,865 yds, 8.0 ypa, 80 td, 11 int
2015-16 playoffs (5 games): 148-240 (61.7%), 1,749 yds, 7.3 ypa, 10 td, 5 int
TOTALS
42.5 games: 1,096-1,669 (65.7%), 13,073 yds, 7.8 ypa, 96 td, 18 int (5.3:1 td-int ratio), 102.3 rating
Just to compare...here's what Brady did just in the regular season (where his numbers were better than his playoff numbers) from 2007-2014 (his peak passing years), when he may have been using under inflated footballs, per the skeptics:
113 games: 2,655-4,104 (64.7%), 31,694 yds, 7.7 ypa, 245 td, 65 int (3.8:1 td-int ratio), 101.5 rating
So as he's aged into his 40s, using completely legal footballs*, and even including his playoff numbers which are worse than his regular season numbers, Tom Brady has been significantly better since Deflategate than he was in his prime years leading up to it, even when you compare his numbers to Brady's regular season only stats.
In other words, Deflategate people can shove it up their asses.
*The NFL is sooooooooo stupid. Just saying....
The sheer of lack of excitement of the thundering potential displayed by Rex Burkhead?
Is it just me or does Rex have the least graceful running style of any recent Patriot? It works, but man, it's not pretty.