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The 2015 QB Prospects: Mariota vs. Winston

Discussion in 'Wait, Who???' started by soxfan121, Dec 6, 2014.

  1. soxfan121

    soxfan121 JAG Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    From the 12/5 CFB gamethread:
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
  2. mauidano

    mauidano Mai Tais for everyone! SoSH Member

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    I've been watching him play since high school. Not just one game. He's the real deal. He has all the tools to be successful at the next level. Not even Peyton Manning, or Andrew Luck were perfect in college. This kid has a very bright future ahead of him. And it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
     
  3. Want to link us to some video that shows him making difficult plays, not just wide-open bombs for TDs?
     
    I fully recognize that I have a thin slice of data to base an impression on, so by all means, sell me on him.
     
  4. EL Jeffe

    EL Jeffe Member SoSH Member

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    He just seems so hard to evaluate. He put up his traditional great stat line against a talented FSU defense, but I don't remember seeing one NFL type throw out of him. A bunch of tear screens (which NFL teams run, but virtually any decent QB can throw), roll-outs, and throws to uncovered receivers. You never see him drop back, go through progressions and have to fit a ball into tight windows. His character is squeaky clean and he checks all the boxes from a physical tools standpoint, but it's almost impossible to tell if he can read a defense, get the ball out quickly and make accurate throws to covered receivers. I don't know how you spend a top five pick on a guy like that. Lots of people want to compare him to Russell Wilson, but Wilson played in much more conventional offenses at NC State and Wisconsin. Winston scares the crap out of me from a character standpoint (who the hell wants to make that guy the face of their franchise), but you see NFL style progressions and throws out of him all the time. 
     
  5. mascho

    mascho Kane is Able SoSH Member

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    From the Rose Bowl Preview I wrote:
     
    http://vid809.photobucket.com/albums/zz11/mascho030916/OregonPassingOffenseTwo.mp4
     
    Deep post route against Cover 1. Cornerback is on the WRs back hip and the free safety is coming. Mariota puts the ball into a small-ish throwing window perfectly...and this throw is a rope.
     
    http://vid809.photobucket.com/albums/zz11/mascho030916/OregonPassingOffenseThree.mp4
     
    Reads the defense well, knows that his outside WR will break open on his dig route, waits for him to clear the underneath defender and puts the ball  where it needs to be.  
     
    I'm not an NFL GM, but I haven't seen anything on the hours of film I've watched that scares me away from him. 
     
  6. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I've heard some NFL personnel evaluators say (on talk radio) that one very good predictor of future NFL success how QBs do in messy pockets (since in the NFL, QBs rarely have clean pockets to work in).  I've watched Mariota a couple of times (not a full game, including last night) and I just haven't seen him have to deal with much pressure.  Any thoughts about this?
     
    P.S.  here are some numbers from PFF:  https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/12/31/mariota-vs-winston-by-the-numbers/.  Mariota generally does well against pressure, but I wonder if that's because the pressure is coming off the edges, and it allows Mariota to scramble a bit (as opposed to A-gap pressure).
     
  7. HurstSoGood

    HurstSoGood Member SoSH Member

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    Mark,
    Thanks for the videos.
    Do you think there is anything about Mariota's arm angle/slot/release point that would have to be changed in/for the NFL? It seems like he is not completely an "over-the-top" passer, but rather slings the ball more. I know he is listed at 6'4", so that may not pose as big a problem, but he doesn't seem to be releasing the ball as highly as Brady, Luck  (both 6'4") or Rodgers (6'2"). It would not affect my taking him over Winston - I was just curious if this is something that an NFL coach would try and tweak.
     
  8. mascho

    mascho Kane is Able SoSH Member

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    Hard to find plays that match-up well, but here's Mariota's release point from one of those two previous videos:
     
    [​IMG]
     
    Here's Brady, also throwing a crossing route, against the Dolphins in Week 15:
     
    [​IMG]
    Brady is more "over-the-top," but Mariota's release point is pretty good. I don't think any coaches would tweak that. 
     
  9. Freddy Linn

    Freddy Linn Member SoSH Member

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    So Oregon loses its All-American, Rimington award finalist center for a month and you don't have enough evidence about A-gap pressure?  
     
    The Ducks lost seven offensive lineman this year, including Grasu and Jake Fisher.  The guy has been under fire a ton this year.
     
  10. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    There will be a LOT of interest at his combine workouts etc. He could really slip if he has a bad combine, but I think that slip is limited by the ability of the Eagles to make a move. Kelly cna't get up into the top 5 IMO but if he drops into the double digits that's a very plausible move.
    Give him a year to adjust with Foles as starter. Best case you could end up with a Chargers Rivers/ Brees type deal. Worst case you start Sanchez again....
     
    Mariota would be a better fit with the Eagles than most for many obvious reasons, and frankly Kelly's system gives QBs chances. I mean Sanchez played badly and still put up the best numbers of his career, completion percentage, yards, YPA etc and he was bad running the read option and scared to throw deep and bad with his progressions. Russell Wilson would be absolutely terrifying in that offensive. Any mobile smart/ coachable QB would be. He could slip though. Winston seems like the better arm talent, but face of a franchise? No contest. How much about being a QB is talent vs leadership etc? I don't agree with Simmons' it's mainly leadership. But having watched Vick be completely uncoachable and never learn to slide or how to read a defense I do think ti's clearly not all physical.
     
  11. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    It isn't all physical. Character issues are important. Putting aside those well known truths I want to ask what you mean by face of a franchise. You're not saying one is more talented than the other, right? This is more about intangibles to you? I was big on TBW last year and there is no doubt in my mind Winston is the more talented QB. Whether his character issues will continue to impede him remains to be seen.
    For the sake of the argument let's say that you meant character issues and intangibles when you spoke of a face of a franchise.
    I don't think you can say right now one will be a shoe in over the other for the face of a franchise. Winstons current trajectory suggests it but a lot can change (think Dez Bryant in Dallas). Winstons sheer talent could makeup for character problems as long as they stay minor (hopefully no pun or future pun intended).

    If you had the number one overall pick for the Eagles and you had to pick a QB which one would you select? I'm trying to get at where you evaluate the QBs and Mariota as well as see if you might rank Mariota differently as a fit with the Eagles than say the Bills or Jets (to name two random teams who might draft a QB in the first round).
     
  12. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I'm not (frankly) good enough at evaluating the arm/ ability to make the throws at the next level.
     
    And yes I'm talking about the face of the franchise, as in the franchise QB you build around for a decade plus. That requires some media savvy but that's really secondary to team leadership, setting the right example etc.
    So there's some amount of the franchise QB role that is physical talent. But there is also a leadership, inspirational, belief/ confidence type component. I always thought it was more talent than anything, but it's clearly a mix of the two.
     
    If I assume Mariota has the potential physical talent for this, even if it's less than winston's I'm probably taking Mariota. Winston has a little too much Vick/ RGIII/ Manziel type in him, careless. There is a very real chance you have a non football issue with him, that seems minimal to zero for Mariota.
    If I'm the Eagles with Chip Kelly I think Mariota makes a lot more sense. Knows the system, they know and trust each other, etc etc. There's zero doubt he will buy in to Kelly. Unlike say Desean Jackson.
     
    If I'm Tampa Bay, or most other teams, I think it's a talent evaluation thing. All things being equal skill wise Mariota is the better pick. IF Winston is the better talent then it's harder. I'd imagine mroe would go with talent than overall package. Winston is a boom or bust pick, Mariota seems like his floor may be a more mobile Dalton.
     
    EDIT: I realize that's a cop out. I don't get to watch much college football since I've been back in London, so I have have only a limited amount of game tape I've seen and I'm better at judging other areas than the QB arm, or rather it's translation from college to the pros.
     
  13. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Bucky Brooks had a good piece a couple days ago comparing Mariota and Winston. I can't link because I'm on my phone but worth googling.
     
  14. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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  15. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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  16. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I said that I haven't seen a lot of Mariota this year; that's why I was asking the question.  Although it seems to me that the OR offense is designed to get him on the move, make quick reads, and get rid of the ball.   While he was under pressure in the FL State game, I didn't see many messy pockets. 
     
    But if he can throw without a clean pocket, he's going to be special.
     
  17. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2015-01-05/jameis-winston-nfl-draft-status-update-decision-florida-state-buccaneers-baseball-decision-declaration-selection?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
     
  18. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    He'd be insane not to come out. He's a top 2/3 pick today. He should chat to Matt Barkley about how staying at college can help your career.
     
  19. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    There's all sorts of misinformation and misdirection in this process so who knows. But both Mariota and Winston are going to get dissected over the next two months and I don't think its a given that both, or even either, stay right at the top of the draft.
     
  20. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    According to many draftniks Geno Smith and Teddy Bridgewater were both going to be the number one picks in the draft in the years they came out: I'm not sure the stuff Kiper or whoever says about Winston now (or about Barkley when he opted not to come out) is particularly informative about what NFL teams think.
     
    That said based on my own limited observations however Winston is so physically gifted and has been so productive that somebody is going to draft him in the first if he comes out.
     
  21. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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  22. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

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    He's going pro according to his dad.
     
     
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/story/_/id/12131473/jameis-winston-florida-state-seminoles-nfl-draft-father-says
     
  23. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Daniel Jeremiah put out his first mock today, with Winston going #1 to the Bucs and Mariota #6 to the Jets. I expect that consensus to settle in eventually. Winston is so much more pro-ready and the Bucs hiring Dirk Koetter as OC, a guy who runs a pretty standard Air-Coryell inspired offense, is a dead giveaway regarding their thinking IMO. Winston is a great fit there given what FSU runs but it will be like greek to Mariota, at least initially. They may still pass on Winston in the end if the off-the-field stuff is too much of a concern but I can't see them taking Mariota and sliding him into that offense.

    Honestly, I think the big question at this point isn't who goes first but how far Mariota will fall.
     
  24. Not that I believe otherwise, but I would be interested to hear an assessment of why you believe Jameis Winston is the best prospect for the NFL this year.  Being uneducated in such things, all I have to go on is seeing him in action against ND, Florida, GT, and Oregon, and basically crapping his pants for much of the game, making unforced errors, rarely turning nothing into something, and eventually calming down enough to lead sustained drives that eventually won the games (well, except the last one).
     
    It can be hard to separate the talents of the QB from that of the OL and receiving corps, certainly.  But I'm not sure what exactly makes Winston a surer bet (just for purely on-field reasons) than, say, Brett Hundley of UCLA.  I know squat about projecting football players, so I'd love to be educated.
     
  25. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Let me first clarify by saying that Winston might not be the best overall prospect.  But I think he's the best QB prospect and, while not on the level of an Andrew Luck type, he's good enough that I expect Tampa to take him given the importance of the position and their need for a quarterback.
     
    I'm no super draft evaluator but here's what Winston seems to bring to the table:
     
    -He has a big time arm.  Some people think his release is a bit loopy and slow but he certainly has the arm strength.
    -He's got prototypical size and while not a big runner is fairly mobile.
    -He moves well in the pocket to extend plays, doesn't get flustered or tuck it immediately when under pressure, and is really hard to bring down - sort of a Luck/Roethlisberger type in this regard.
    -FSU runs a pro-style offense that requires the QB to make a lot of NFL-like reads and to make a lot of NFL-like anticipation throws (ie, not just throwing to the open guy, but to where the WR should break given the coverage).
    -He put up some ridiculous numbers last year, especially with the vertical passing game, before falling back to earth this year, after his two major downfield WR targets left.
    -Despite the off-the-field concerns and apparent immaturity, most reports have him as a very hard worker with good leadership qualities.
     
    I don't think he's a can't miss type prospect.  The off the field stuff is a major concern and even on the field the performance this year was definitely subpar at times, especially the number of picks.  But if you add it all up, he's got a ton of positive qualities, especially if you're willing to look past or deal with the off-the-field issues.
     
    I really haven't watched Hundley much nor have I read up on him.  From what little I have read, the biggest knocks seem to be that he has bad pocket presence (a take off and run if pressured sort of guy) and played in a system that didn't require him to make many reads or tough throws.
     
  26. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I agree. I've always felt that he is a guy who could suffer from the draft process examination which tends to ignore the game film and personality and leadership etc. Plus I think that the League is moving away from mobile QB as a priority right now, zone read play is down and the events around Manziel won't help. The Rodgers/ Luck model is the ideal for many now. A passer who can move to make a play, but not a player you regularly design rushes around.
     
    It's going to be fascinating because the Eagles will be interested.
     
  27. tbb345

    tbb345 Member SoSH Member

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    As someone who lives in Florida and has watched every FSU game the past 2 years your analysis is pretty far off base. Winston's struggles were early in the year and they were mostly because of losing Stork. The new center they tried out was awful and because of that Winston was facing constant A gap pressure. (Since we all watch Brady we know how tough it is to deal with pressure in your face). The other thing about Winston is that what makes him so appealing to teams on the field causes mistakes, it's that he makes a ton of pro style anticipatory throws. So he is anticipating receivers moving into windows and he has to be on the same page as them..something that often didn't happen because he was breaking in two freshman receivers.

    And honestly, I really don't know where you get the "crapping his pants" part. Winston is very calm and composed, on the field off is another story, and stays cool no matter what the situation. Also, for a guy that gets as much shit as he does, he is an incredible on field leader and his teammates love him. I think his supporting cast, specifically his O-line, was incredibly overrated by the general public who only looked at potential draft position and didn't watch the games.

    Jameis' weaknesses are mechanical (sometimes sloppy footwork and he has a Leftwich sequence hitch in his delivery) and Cian Fahey did an awesome break down that showed a lot of his INTS were because of failure to recognize underneath coverage in zone. Now those are definitely issues but they are pretty minor compared to other QBS when they come out of college

    I think that, other than Luck, Jameis is the best QB prospect of the last decade. He has an incredible football IQ, Jimbo Fisher has talked about how he is the first QB that has allowed Fisher to use his entire playbook (which is supposed to be incredibly dense and similar to an NFL teams). And without watching him you don't have a true appreciation of what he does. I know this is a cop-out but he really does have that "it" factor that is impossible to define.
     
  28. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    The bolded seems to be more of an indication on the lack of true QB talent there is than anything else.  Other than Luck, I guess you are saying that Winston is a better prospect than Newton (didn't play in a pro-style system), Stafford, Ryan, Flacco (didn't play at a major college), Alex Smith, and Aaron Rodgers. 
     
    If you include 2004, you would have to include Eli, Rivers, and Roethlisberger, and if you include 2003, that would mean Carson Palmer.
     
    As a side note, it's amazing that the NFL keeps putting more and more emphasis on the passing game while there seem to be fewer and fewer guys who can actually play QB well enough to get to the playoffs.  I guess that's why the same teams (QBs) keep getting to the playoffs year after year.
     
  29. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yup, it'll be interesting.  The most likely landing spots that I see based on QB need are WAS at #5, the Jets at #6, Rams at #10, and the Texans at #16.  But its hard to tell how those organizations will evaluate Mariota and whether those coaches/GMs will feel like they're in a position to wait for him to develop and bet their jobs on him.  If he falls past the Jets, there are definitely some teams in the mix that really lack talent overall (CHI@7, ATL@8, NO@13) and would probably strongly consider a trade that netted them #20 plus a 2nd and a 4th or something like that.
     
  30. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Not to derail the thread but you do realize that 5 out of the 12 2013 playoff teams did not make it back this year, right? This pattern hold nearly every year.
     
  31. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Your point is literally correct, but I think wbcd makes a fair point: there's a fairly small fraternity of playoff-caliber quarterbacks, and it isn't getting a lot bigger. Of those five "new" teams, Romo, Stafford, Flacco, and Roethlisberger had all made the playoffs before (with the last two winning Super Bowls), so the Cardinals featured the only "new" QB (and Palmer, who's been to the playoffs before, was the QB for most of their wins). And Arizona is the exception that proves the rule, because a) making the playoffs had little to do with their QB, and b) they were easily dispatched in the first round by a seven-win team.
     
  32. Infield Infidel

    Infield Infidel teaching korea american SoSH Member

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    Besides Stork, FSU lost two of their top three receivers, and two of their top three RBs, all NFL caliber players, off the NT team. He basically willed that offense into probably half their wins this season. He's the more pro ready of the two, but he has to work on throwing the ball away when he's in trouble instead of taking unnecessary chances. He'll hang in the pocket to make the play, which is admirable but occasionally he'll force it. He cuts down on those, and he'll be a stud because like Rothlesberger has has an knack at brushing off contact in the pocket, returning to his progressions, and hitting his man. He just needs to realize he can't do that every time the pocket collapses. 
     
  33. tbb345

    tbb345 Member SoSH Member

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    Coming out of college, I think the only one of those that approaches Winston is Palmer. Big Ben wasn't Big Ben when he came out and Manning had a lot of people wondering if he was only getting drafted that high because of name and genetics.
    I think Palmer was probably higher rated than Winston coming out though...
     
  34. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Bucky Brooks' first mock draft also has Winston #1 but has Mariota falling all the way to #18.
     
  35. GeorgeCostanza

    GeorgeCostanza Member SoSH Member

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    JaMarcus Winston?

    [​IMG]
     
  36. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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  37. dirtynine

    dirtynine Member SoSH Member

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  38. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  39. RememberTheGronkans

    RememberTheGronkans lurker

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  40. Freddy Linn

    Freddy Linn Member SoSH Member

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    This isn't surprising at all.  He was always going to interview really well.
     
  41. rodderick

    rodderick Member SoSH Member

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    Are we just going to list out of context bullet points to shit on a guy? How about all the media people and draftniks who said his interview was extremely impressive?
     
    Edit: here is the interview. Thought he came across as smart and confident. Obviously, it's heavily rehearsed and you're free to weigh his past heavily in your evaluation, but I don't see how you can say he didn't ace that.
     
  42. reggiecleveland

    reggiecleveland sublime Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  43. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    Winston running it very slowly.
     
  44. wibi

    wibi Member SoSH Member

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    4.97 is what is being reported which if true is scary slow for someone who is supposed to have mobility
     
  45. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Weird.  I wonder why people thought a pocket passer with 284 rushing yards in two college seasons had mobility?
     
    (I kid--I know people said he was fairly fast coming out of high school but there haven't been a lot of indicators that he can run as a college QB).
     
  46. mascho

    mascho Kane is Able SoSH Member

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    I put something together on their footwork at the combine
     
  47. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This lifted from PFT.com seems to square with everything coming out of Combine:

    'Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is not surprised by reports that quarterback Jameis Winston impressed NFL teams with the intelligence he demonstrated in interviews at the Combine.

    Fisher, who has been a quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator or head coach for 27 years, said he has never coached a player with the level of football intelligence that Winston possesses.

    “Jameis, in football intellect, intelligence level, is as smart as anybody I’ve ever been around,” Fisher said on NFL Network. “You can do so many different things with him and he grasps it. He just doesn’t memorize plays, he understands the concepts of how to attack the coverage, how a play works, where his one-on-one matchups are. He just has a tremendous football intellect that way.”

    Fisher said that Winston’s study habits are particularly impressive.

    “Every night, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, we get off the practice field, he eats his dinner at 6:45, and then he’s up here in the offices until 9:30, 10, 10:30 at night,” Fisher said. “He would sit and watch every practice tape and then prepare for red zone, third down, whatever it might be. A lot of guys are very talented but he likes to understand the game.”'

    It also squares with reports that Fisher would dump game plans at half times, come up with new ones, and Winston would be fine. Finally, it is consistent with Winston's admission to Stanford.

    Could the hijinks -- alleged sexual assault aside -- be attributed to boredom along with immaturity?
     
  48. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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  49. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    That would be interesting because the Snyders would be facing the spectre of handing Chip a loaded gun, or maybe one with blanks. Or maybe everybody benefits.

    The good course in such cases is to have the confidence to do what you think is best for your team, and forget the fan noise and blowback. But with a new GM calling the shots, who knows. Who knows, especially, after Jeff Fisher pulled the stunt of running his RGIII trade return out as team captains when the two teams played last year.
     
  50. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Very nice.
     
    One does wonder when his academic studies were done.   :fonz:
     

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