The 14 Commandments of Managing

[absintheofmalaise]

I don't know how many of you follow the MGL on Baseball blog, but I recommend it. He posted his 14 Commandments for Managers for in-game strategy. He offers them with this comment:
 

 
 
Note: These are rules of thumb which apply 90-99% of the time (or so). Some of them have a few or even many exceptions and nuances to consider. I do believe, however, that if every manager followed these religiously, even without employing any exceptions or considering any of the nuances, that he would be much better off than the status quo. There are also many other suggestions, commandments, and considerations that I would use, that are not included in this list.

 
Here are the first two.
 

 
1)      Though shalt never use individual batter/pitcher matchups, recent batter or pitcher stats, or even seasonal batter or pitcher stats. Ever. The only thing that this organization uses are projections based on long-term performance. You will use those constantly.
2)      Thou shalt never, ever use batting average again. wOBA is your new BA. Learn how to construct it and learn what it means.

 

 

[DJnVa]

I know I'm missing something, but what's the difference between #1 saying "don't use batter/pitcher matchups" and #3 saying:

Thou shalt be given and thou shalt use the following batter/pitcher matchups every game: Each batter’s projection versus each pitcher.
 

 
It's late on a Friday afternoon, so I'm a little slow.

 

[SumnerH]

Let's talk exceptions:

2) Thou shalt never, ever use batting average again. wOBA is your new BA. Learn how to construct it and learn what it means.

 
You're down a run, bottom of the 9th, runner on 3rd, pitcher due up.  Is it unreasonable to PH with the guy with a much higher BA but lower wOBA, rather than a guy who draws more walks but has a lower BA?
 

7) Thou shalt keep thy starter in or remove him based on two things and two things only: One, his pitch count, and two, the number of times he has faced the order. Remember that ALL pitchers lose 1/3 of a run in ERA each time through the order, regardless of how they are pitching thus far.

 
Injuries obviously trump this, but what about extended delays?  Is there a numerical way to help figure out if this rain delay should end a pitcher's outing or if he can continue, or do you go with instinct and the pitcher's self-evaluation?
 

8)      Thou shalt remove thy starter for a pinch hitter in a high leverage situation if he is facing the order for the 3rd time or more, regardless of how he is pitching.

 
Even Micah Owings?
 

14)   Finally, thou shalt know that we respect and admire your leadership and motivational skills. That is one of the reasons we hired you. However, if you are not on board with our decision-making processes and willing to employ them at all times, please find yourself another team to manage

 
This is very hand wavy on my part, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were managers like Tito who occasionally break these rules but more than make that back with leadership/motivational skills.  Unless you think the latter are literally worth zero, then there's some break-even point at which it's worth tolerating some amount of rules breakage in exchange for other gains.

 

[SumnerH]

I know I'm missing something, but what's the difference between #1 saying "don't use batter/pitcher matchups" and #3 saying:
 
It's late on a Friday afternoon, so I'm a little slow.

 
Reading that one through, the batter's projection vs. the pitcher is basically platoon-adjusted, not based on the batter's (tiny) splits vs. that one pitcher.

 

[rembrat]

Should I take his omission of hit-and-runs to mean it should never, ever be put on?

 

[Jnai]

If you're going to write commandments, why would you write 14 of them?

 

[SumnerH]

If you're going to write commandments, why would you write 14 of them?

 
So there are 10 left after you break a tablet.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

I like the basic idea of it, but I bet even Francona and John Farrell would burn that list in front of their GM if they were presented it, particularly for things like:
 
"No runner shall steal second base with a lefty pitcher on the mound."
 
"8)      Thou shalt remove thy starter for a pinch hitter in a high leverage situation if he is facing the order for the 3rd time or more, regardless of how he is pitching." (e.g. what about if you're ahead and your starter is pitching lights-out?)
 
Also, I'd say this does OK at covering the short-term, in-game stuff.  It doesn't (nor does it try to) cover the longer-term decision-making that managers make.  Things like reliever choice given recent usage, lineup construction given injury status or given the need for a day off (rather than exclusively considering the expected-performance matchup card), or even the need to give rookies a chance to prove themselves and adjust to the big leagues.  As we've seen with Francona and Farrell, sometimes the short term interests must give way to the long-term ones.

 

[mauf]

I'm surprised to see an article from an intelligent source that suggests in-game tactics are the most important part of a manager's job, as opposed to coaxing the best possible performances from a group of 25 athletes. It's self-evident that the latter will sometimes require a manager to break "commandments" and make decisions that are sub-optimal from a purely analytic point of view.

In addition to the exceptions noted above, there are some batter-pitcher matchups that are so one-sided that you dismiss them as SSS at your peril. For example, while I wouldn't bench a guy who was 2-12 against a given pitcher in favor of a guy who was 5-10, I think you have to pay attention when one of your guys is 0-8 with 6 Ks against an opposing pitcher.

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm surprised to see an article from an intelligent source that suggests in-game tactics are the most important part of a manager's job, as opposed to coaxing the best possible performances from a group of 25 athletes. It's self-evident that the latter will sometimes require a manager to break "commandments" and make decisions that are sub-optimal from a purely analytic point of view.

 
This.  I've been saying for a long time here that the most important part of managing a baseball team is not the in-game decisions, but rather the work of managing *people*.  There's SO MUCH that goes on behind the scenes.  The guys show up at the ballpark between noon and 1:00, generally speaking.  Game time isn't until 7:05.  Then there is time after the game.  The work day doesn't end until usually around 11:00 or so, depending on how long the game lasts.  So of that 10-11 hour work day, just 3 of it is the game itself.  Granted, it's a huge part, and it's what the other 7-8 are for, but still, most of the work is done in preparation for the game itself.  
 
And during all that time, over the course of months and months, with often times a revolving door of kids and veterans and huge egos, the manager has to keep it all together and functioning well.  I would LOVE to read a full - I mean *full* - tell-all book by Tito about the 2004 Red Sox.  I bet there was just some unbelievable stuff that took place with that bunch that would blow us away if we knew.  
 
To manage any group of people over that span of time, but especially professional athletes, is an immensely difficult job.  Deciding which reliever to bring in when or whether to sacrifice in the 7th inning - that's actually pretty minor stuff compared to making sure Manny and Youkilis aren't killing each other every freaking day.  

 

[Bosoxen]

I'm surprised to see an article from an intelligent source that suggests in-game tactics are the most important part of a manager's job

 
I don't see it suggesting that at all. It may not have said it explicitly but I read it as a discussion of in-game tactics, independent of the other duties of a manager. Sure, it's a little overly simplistic. But I don't see it in any way saying that the management of the team is secondary to the management of the game.
 
This was just an easier column to write than the commandments of overall management, which would read a little something like War and Peace. Quibble with that, if you like, but I feel like you're reading more into the author's intent than you should.