Super Bowls have been identified by Roman Numerals since almost forever and I'm not stopping now.
Super Bowl L: Who you got (and by how much)?
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
Carolina by 14-20. Denver's offense is going to be able to do less than nothing against Carolina's D and Denver's D will not get the benefit of firing off the line like they are at home.
Carolina has been the best team all year and it won't stop.
Will be interesting to see them go 18-1 with the sole loss to a pretty lousy Atlanta team late in the year... will make us all think back to whether the 2007 Pats would have won it all if they had lost that Baltimore or Philly game
Will be interesting to see them go 18-1 with the sole loss to a pretty lousy Atlanta team late in the year... will make us all think back to whether the 2007 Pats would have won it all if they had lost that Baltimore or Philly game
The Broncos will win 2-0. The headlines will read MANNING LEADS DENVER TO CHAMPIONSHIP, CEMENTS STATUS AS TEH GREATEST QB EVER!
I like CAR to win but it will be closer than people expect. Manning will be in game manager mode and won't be making those mistakes Palmer and Wilson did that allowed CAR get out to huge leads.
Denver will rely on that fantastic D that isn't going to allow Tedd Ginn or Philly Brown to run routes uncovered 20 yards down field. CAR will be up 24-10 in the fourth but a pick 6 and late FG will make the game look closer than it really was 24-20 CAR.
Denver will rely on that fantastic D that isn't going to allow Tedd Ginn or Philly Brown to run routes uncovered 20 yards down field. CAR will be up 24-10 in the fourth but a pick 6 and late FG will make the game look closer than it really was 24-20 CAR.
I'd like to hear how Denver's pass rush will be affected by Cam's mobility and use of the read option.
I don't think Manning can go full game manager in this one because Carolina's going to hold up against the Denver pass rush better than NE did and put up some points. As well as the New England defense played yesterday, they have been pretty poor at getting takeaways this year while Carolina's best in the league. I don't think that Denver D lets this game turn into a rout, but I have Carolina by 7.
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I'd be surprised if Denver has much more success running the ball against the Panthers than they did yesterday. They're most likely going to need to force some turnovers or get big special teams plays to put up more than 20 points.
I'd expect Phillips to blitz Newton a lot more than he blitzed Brady. I need to look up some stats to back this up but I do get the feeling that Newton struggles with the blitz more than your average QB. Maybe not 6 man pressures the whole time, but at least some of the mush/run blitzing we saw from the Pats against the Seahawks last year to help negate a scrambling quarterback
I'd expect Phillips to blitz Newton a lot more than he blitzed Brady. I need to look up some stats to back this up but I do get the feeling that Newton struggles with the blitz more than your average QB. Maybe not 6 man pressures the whole time, but at least some of the mush/run blitzing we saw from the Pats against the Seahawks last year to help negate a scrambling quarterback
Carolina by at least 2 touchdowns. Lost in all of the hoopla yesterday is Manning's second half of the AFC Game: 7-12, 48 yards, two sacks for -25, one run for 12 yards. If Manning puts up only 35 net yards in 30 minutes of football against this Panthers team, the Broncos will get smoked.
I would imagine Norman will be on DT since Norman does not play the slot at all and Sanders can be lined up in the slot pretty easy. Sanders will probably play a big key in DEN moving the ball. CAR is down two CB so if Sanders can exploit those matchups Manning may have some success.
Norman completely shut down a similar receiver to DT in Malcolm Floyd yesterday so I would expect more of the same in 2 weeks.
Some sobering stats from Cousin Sal on the Bill Simmons podcast:
-- Teams that are 15-1 are 2-4 in the Superbowl
-- Teams that win their conference title games by 30+ are 2-5 in the Superbowl (there may be overlap with the above)
-- Teams that are 15-1 are 2-4 in the Superbowl
-- Teams that win their conference title games by 30+ are 2-5 in the Superbowl (there may be overlap with the above)
I am not sure what those numbers tell us except that the teams that made the Superbowl after going 15-1 ran into a team peaking at the right time and/or teams that won their conference championship by a lot probably faced a far inferior team than their next opponent.
The Panthers just dismantled a team that was the top offense in terms of yardage offensively and a top five team in terms of yardage allowed defensively. Denver was the top team defensively but they were a wholly mediocre 16th overall in terms of offensive yardage. I think this Superbowl is more likely to resemble the last one Denver played in than an upset. Carolina in a walk...
Superbowl 48 is what most people will compare this matchup to, and I think that's apt. But the Broncos are a lot worse (offensively) than they were two years ago. I think a comparison to the Ravens-Giants in Superbowl 35 might be more accurate. Hard to believe that the Ravens were only favored by three. I felt like there was never going to be a contest.
Denver had devastating injuries to its Defense in SB48. Devastating. Denver is a very very different team this year.
This year may be like SB 38 but not in the way most think. It will be where the high flying offense gets beat on by the top defense.
Look at this historic numbers on SB teams coming in with either a #1 Offense (CAR) or a #1 Defense (DEN):
#1 Ranked Offense record: 10-12
#1 Ranked Defense record: 9-4
Defense wins championships.
Denver 26
Carolina 20
(Bold prediction bolded - no clue why I can't edit that out)
Yes, Manning will have a short field a few times after Denver picks Cam. Maybe a straight up pick-6, too.
Two TDs, 4 FGs.
So basically similar to the AFCCG? 1 legit scoring drive, a defensive TD or turnover-aided TD, and a bunch of 40-50 yard FGs. Not out of the realm of possibility. I think Cam has some brain farts in him.
When was the last time a Super Bowl was a match up between two defenses this good? The Ravens D got hot in the 2012 playoffs but were wholly mediocre that season. I don't remember the Cardinals defense being that good when they matched up against Pittsburgh's #1 unit in 2008. This will sound wrong, but the 2001 Rams had the 3rd best defense by DVOA in the league, while the '01 Pats came in at 19th (at least according to this page: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2004/2001-dvoa-ratings-and-commentary). My football memory (in terms of watching the games) really only goes back to the late 90's, and I can't remember two units playing this well running into each other.
And yea, defense wins championships, and both these teams have great defenses. I'll take the team that complements their D with a great offense as well.
And yea, defense wins championships, and both these teams have great defenses. I'll take the team that complements their D with a great offense as well.
Those numbers are hard to argue. And frankly, if they win, I am happy for you and a friend of mine who is a Donkeys fan.
Just on the 15-1 teams. They are 2-1 in the super bowl.
The 98 Vikings lost the nfccg to the falcons.
The 04 Steelers lost the afccg to the Patriots
The 11 Packers lost in divisional round to NYG
The 98 Vikings lost the nfccg to the falcons.
The 04 Steelers lost the afccg to the Patriots
The 11 Packers lost in divisional round to NYG
21-17 Denver. Everything points to a Carolina romp, which means the Mike Carey rule is in play. Take Denver.
Here's the thing, though: Carolina's D didn't face a very tough slate of offenses this year.
Check out Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Denver has the #1 Defense and faced the 4th toughest schedule.
Carolina has the #5 Defense but faced the 26th toughest schedule.
Denver's current Offense is probably right in line with that 26th place spot, so I do not expect to see it dominate, but I do think they will do enough to let Denver's top Defense get things done.
FO actually has Denver with the #1 D and Carolina #2, even including opponent adjustments. That doesn't include the playoff performances by either. The two defenses are both excellent.
Adding to my confidence in Denver's D for this game: Just like Wade Phillips managed to do yesterday, I think they will disguise and mix up their coverages and rushes and as a result they will give Cam headaches trying to make reads. They won't knock him down anywhere near as much as they did to Brady (Carolina has a much better O-Line and running game so sacks will be a smaller part of the strategy) but they will stop the run by and large (a strong suit for Denver) and the CBs will stick with the CAR receivers on those go routes taking those away for the most part. They don't thrive on the short passing attack like NE so flooding the flat with bodies won't be as key for Denver. Cam holds the ball a long time and while he will surely get some nice runs in, he will also force it into tight coverage some, run into a few big hits and maybe take a coverage sack or two.
It will not look like the AFCCG, but I'm very confident that they will give Cam tougher reads than he is used to.
Look at Football Outsiders again for Offenses:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff
Carolina's schedule has them ranked as facing the 32nd toughest defenses. Last place. That offense has seen nothing like what Denver is bringing on D.
It will not look like the AFCCG, but I'm very confident that they will give Cam tougher reads than he is used to.
Look at Football Outsiders again for Offenses:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff
Carolina's schedule has them ranked as facing the 32nd toughest defenses. Last place. That offense has seen nothing like what Denver is bringing on D.
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Patriots and Eagles had the tied for #2 scoring defense in the league (260 points allowed, behind Pittsburgh at 251).
Tampa (all-time great defense, 196 points allowed) and Oakland (pretty good defense, 304 points allowed) probably count.
For an all-time matchup of the defensive titans, you'd have to go back to the Steelers-Vikings in the seventies.
No offense, but this seems like a gross oversimplification and a lot of wish casting. It's easy to focus on mixing up your coverages and rushes when you're facing a team like the Patriots, who present absolutely no threats in the running game. It's another thing entirely when you're facing a team that runs the ball as effectively as Carolina, and has a QB like Newton who needs to accounted for as a potential runner on just about every down.
If Denver goes into this game focusing on complicated coverages and blitzes, Carolina will run all over them. Assuming they will "stop the run by and large" seems like wishful thinking. They've ran for over 100 yards in every single game this season. That's in large part because they're a difficult offense to defend. Every one of their core runs has a read-option element to it, and they attack the defense in the passing game at all three levels. People talk about their lack of skill players but they do a great job of dictating terms to the defense. They always seem to have an answer for what their opponent tries to do, and can beat a defense in a variety of ways.
It's also worth mentioning that cooking up complicated schemes is not what Wade Phillips is typically known for. He's generally a KISS method guy who wins on solid execution and well timed play calls. What he did Sunday was brilliant, but atypical. Which is probably why it caught the Patriots so off guard.
I've watched a lot of Panthers games over the years and I'm honestly not all that surprised with how well they've played this season. They've suffered from inconsistency and a fair amount of bad injury luck over the past few years, but when they were at their best, this is what they looked like. They've just been able to put it all together and maintain it over the course of an entire season. Plus you factor in Cam's maturation, the rebuilding of the interior d-line, and the emergence of Norman as a legit #1 corner and their talent level has increased as well. People can nitpick their schedule if they want to, but they are legit. You don't go 17-1 in this league by accident.
Reminded of SB 32. About a million people told me that Denver just couldn't compete with the SF-GB winner. GB heavily favored. All it did was motivate the Broncos.
I picked Carolina in this matchup 3 weeks ago, but the Denver D is damn good. It'll be close, and this Denver team win close ones.
I picked Carolina in this matchup 3 weeks ago, but the Denver D is damn good. It'll be close, and this Denver team win close ones.
BTW, my confidence in Denver's D is in no way meant to imply that I think Carolina is not a great team. They are. This will be the hardest game of the year for Denver (facing NE may have been a tougher opponent, but at least that was at home).
I am interested in your journey. If I recall right, you were not expecting much from Denver in the post-season.
Why the optimism on nuetral turf against a one-loss team with demonstrably fewer problems than pitts and ne? And the one thing they are particularly susceptible to your guys cannot do particularly well.
All the talk is on Denver's defense vs. Cam but I'm more interested in watching Manning against Carolina. Will Manning have the time to find his second and third reads? Kuechly will be an absolute menace in the middle of the field and Norman basically takes away a sideline.
For those impressed by the CAR dismantling of AZ, it is worth noting that Palmer wasn't the same QB after injuring his finger week 16. Arians even admitted he should have held him out week 17. Manning won't beat CAR but I don't think he will lose the game in the first Q like Palmer did either.
OK, but a) Weighted DVOA isn't a better predictor than regular, b) you also quoted Strength of Schedule, which is a full-season stat, and c) DVOA already includes schedule adjustments.
It's safe to say neither offense has faced a defense as good as what they'll be going up against in the Super Bowl. Carolina just beat the Seahawks (#4 in DVOA) and Cardinals (#3) while the best Denver has faced is KC (#6).
Yes I've felt all along that Denver wouldn't make it beyond the first of second week of the playoffs.
The play of the Denver defense over the last stretch has me believing that they are peaking in that phase of the game and that it will give them a serious shot to win the SB. What have you done for me lately? A lot.
The last two games show that Phillips is perfectly willing to change things up and move outside of his preferred standard looks. Against Pitt they primarily employed a zone coverage to keep the speedy Pitt WRs from getting behind the secondary. That was not a strong suit of Denver's D all season and not an approach used often at all. It worked. Then last Sunday he threw a completely new look at NE. They now have 2 weeks to scheme to stop the Panthers. I expect to see something unexpected. Denver's D is pushing all the right buttons of late.
Taking nothing away from their tremendous game plan and execution in the AFCC, I thought the Denver D was not very impressive in the divisional in which they allowed 400 yards of offense to a Steeler team without Brown, Bell, Williams and with a limited Ben. Denver was a 4th-string RB fumble away from being eliminated.
Not a rhetorical question: what did you see in the Pittsburgh game that you really liked from the D?
Edit - You sort of answered my question as I was posting but I guess I'm not totally convinced that Denver contained Pittsburgh's deep threats so much as Ben just physically couldn't make the throws.
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Kawann Short is a world-wrecker at NT who will eat up that Bronco interior line, who struggled against the Patriots. Carolina flows to the ball better than any defense Denver has faced and I'll be shocked if they put up more than 17 points. On offense, the Panthers run the most complicated running sets of any team in the league and have a Gronk-lite zone splitter in Olsen. Newton's scrambling ability will extend plays and convert first downs where Brady could not.
I've got the Panthers in a rout: 34-10. Gonna be a long day for HGH head.
I've got the Panthers in a rout: 34-10. Gonna be a long day for HGH head.
Panthers have been under the radar much of the year, and I don't know if people understand the extent to which they can just maul people on both sides of the line.
I don't believe the Broncos will win unless Cam turns it over 2 or 3 times. Let's see if Cam learns from Tom's mistakes, as that's what it took for the Pats to lose.
Spike -- very reasonable answer.
I don't believe the Broncos will win unless Cam turns it over 2 or 3 times. Let's see if Cam learns from Tom's mistakes, as that's what it took for the Pats to lose.
Spike -- very reasonable answer.
Don't know where else to put this, but there's no way Brady is accepting his "invitation" to L is there? My only question is whether his absence is noted during the ceremony or simply swept under the rug.