He had only pitched 8 innings prior to last year, so it seems like he should have 2 more years pre-arb, I think?
edit: Cot's confirms (), ARB1 in 2018, FA in 2021.
Sox send Miley to Seattle for Smith (RP) and Elias (SP)
- Thread starter MakMan44
- Start date
edit: Cot's confirms (), ARB1 in 2018, FA in 2021.
I do not like this trade. Feels like Arroyo all over again.
EDIT: To clarify, we traded track record for players without a track record.
EDIT: To clarify, we traded track record for players without a track record.
that's a tad optimisic, no?
kelly isn't much of a starter. passable #5 guy maybe. 28yrs old and has never spent a whole season in a rotation, and never been very good even in a temporary role. owens and johnson are soft tossing lefties who weren't mlb material last year. owens was mediocre in AAA and johnson is injured. wright? well, i guess a knuckler always has a chance.
with kelly in the pen and owens/johnson in Pawtucket i think that's solid injury depth but calling it a "surplus" seems a bit of a stretch to me.
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 26s27 seconds ago
Carson Smith has five years of team control remaining, including two more at pre-arb earnings.
Carson Smith has five years of team control remaining, including two more at pre-arb earnings.
Greg Johns @GregJohnsMLB 2m2 minutes ago
Miley is upgrade over Elias in rotation. But Carson Smith quality young reliever. Mariners get Jonathan Aro (anothe reliever) as well.
Miley is upgrade over Elias in rotation. But Carson Smith quality young reliever. Mariners get Jonathan Aro (anothe reliever) as well.
I have to say, Dombrowski is making some pretty good moves so far this offseason, Kimbrel controversy be damned.
"Very good" is stretching it. Price is fantastic, and EdRod and Buchholz have the potential to be, but with zero guarantees. Kelly and Porcello were all over the place last season. It's really a tossup scenario right now, I wouldn't be surprised if the core group ended up good, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they entirely blew up. I think there's another shoe to drop.
This deal depends on how Kelly/Owens develop, hopefully one of them can bring Miley's value in the back
So what? If we have enough arms, why do we care if one that we let go (for a position of greater need) was successful outside our division? This roster is nothing like the thin, injured 2005 pitching staff. The only reason we care about Arroyo is that the Sox went a couple years without enough pitching. [And I suppose people were attached to the guy, since he really wanted to stay.]
Funny to see this conclusion on post from earlier today on Seatown Mariners blog:
Chances are I wake up tomorrow and we’ve traded for Wade Miley, or someone, and I’ve wasted my time writing this.
Chances are I wake up tomorrow and we’ve traded for Wade Miley, or someone, and I’ve wasted my time writing this.
Freeing up money? By trading away a young, affordable starter? Really?
No way I would do that. They better take Hanley in any deal for Miley.
There's really no bets for consistency in this rotation after Price. Really hoping for an inning eating #3 type.
Elias is a guy who can make starts if they need him to. Walks too many, strikes out almost enough. Gets a decent number of groundballs.
Love it
So
Kimbrell
Koji
Carson
Tazawa
Ross
Layne
Wright
with Barnes and Noe Ramirez as AAA support
Love it
SPs:
Price
Buchholz
Porcello
Rodriguez
Kelly
With Owens, Johnson and Elias (sorry about that) as AAA support (not to mention the guy we got for Peavy who's name escapes me - Escobar)
Love it
Bring it on
So
Kimbrell
Koji
Carson
Tazawa
Ross
Layne
Wright
with Barnes and Noe Ramirez as AAA support
Love it
SPs:
Price
Buchholz
Porcello
Rodriguez
Kelly
With Owens, Johnson and Elias (sorry about that) as AAA support (not to mention the guy we got for Peavy who's name escapes me - Escobar)
Love it
Bring it on
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Does this slot Kelly into the rotation? I can't watch that guy pitch. I also hated watching our pen pitch. I guess I generally hated watching our pitchers do most anything.
Good value back. Fair deal for both sides. Smith is exactly the kind of late inning arm that DD wants, and he's controllable and still dirt cheap. We actually save money on this deal.
Odd that we'd get another LH SP in return, though. I think this means they'll give Kelly a legit shot to nail down a rotation spot on the spring, which would balance the rotation a bit, at least to start (i.e. At least until Buch gets hurt and a lefty takes his place).
Odd that we'd get another LH SP in return, though. I think this means they'll give Kelly a legit shot to nail down a rotation spot on the spring, which would balance the rotation a bit, at least to start (i.e. At least until Buch gets hurt and a lefty takes his place).
Smith is a solid addition but they could have a tough time replacing 200 league-average innings in the rotation if a couple of things don't break the right way. I'm cautiously optimistic about this deal. Miley gave them some stability that would've been valuable as they sort out Buchholz/Kelly/Rodriguez/Owens.
Elias is a guy who can make starts if they need him to. Walks too many, strikes out almost enough. Gets a decent number of groundballs.
Last two seasons
Wade Miley: 11.3% K%-BB%
Roenis Elias: 11.2% K%-BB%
A question for those who watched Elias more than I did: looking at his numbers and repertoire, it seems to me he's a similar pitcher to Felix Doubront circa 2013. How offbase is that comparison?
Sounds like a personal problem there.
Especially given the improvements that we've made.
Smith's GB% is wicked high, and unlike some GB pitchers, he has shown low HR/FB rates so far--the result of which is a league-best (tied with Cody Allen) 0.26 HR/9. He allowed just 19.6% hard contact last year. The only guys with a lower rate among AL relievers with 50+ innings were O'Day, Wade Davis, and Zach Britton. Fourth best SIERA among anybody--starters or relievers--with at least 50 IP in the AL last year.
I was hoping we could add a Burke Badenhop type. This is a rich man's Burke Badenhop. I'm psyched.
I was hoping we could add a Burke Badenhop type. This is a rich man's Burke Badenhop. I'm psyched.
nice trade.
might be a sell high on miley who had a better than expected year .
smith was better than kimbrel last year so that's pretty awesome (can he sustain anything cllze to that?). the rotation loses stability but elias becomes another passable option for the #5 spot. elias and miley were pretty much the same in 2014.
might be a sell high on miley who had a better than expected year .
smith was better than kimbrel last year so that's pretty awesome (can he sustain anything cllze to that?). the rotation loses stability but elias becomes another passable option for the #5 spot. elias and miley were pretty much the same in 2014.
Like the deal, Elias is young still and can continue improving. Hopefull Farrell can help him improve his consistency. Here's a bit that fangraphs did for him last year...
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/roenis-elias-and-predictable-pitches/
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/roenis-elias-and-predictable-pitches/
He's been a very valuable swingman, and if he could develop a little more consistency in his command he could be a major contributor. Of course you could say that about a lot of pitchers.Elias is a guy who can make starts if they need him to. Walks too many, strikes out almost enough. Gets a decent number of groundballs.
Maybe helps that he's Cuban?
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 17s17 seconds ago
Also not sure Miley is enough of an upgrade over Elias (especially with $ included) that #Mariners should have to give up Smith too #redsox
Also not sure Miley is enough of an upgrade over Elias (especially with $ included) that #Mariners should have to give up Smith too #redsox
Friends I know who are Mariners fans are doing enough complaining for everyone after this trade.
Great move, love the deal.
Miley projects to be very valuable but young, cost controlled, high ceiling guys with experience are incredibly valuable too.
Miley projects to be very valuable but young, cost controlled, high ceiling guys with experience are incredibly valuable too.
I understand 200 IP being valuable, but Miley is the definition of a league average/3 or 4 pitcher. Of the three potential pitchers to trade Buch , Kelly, or Miley, Miley is the least likely to bite them in the butt and turn into a top starter. Dipoto is probably betting on some positive impact of defense and the pitching friendly Safeco.
The Sox rotation still may lack an ideal number 2 ceiling/consistency wise , but it still shakes out pretty comfortably IMHO.
1) Price 2) Ed Rod 3) Buch 4) Porcello 5) Kelly/Owens/Johnson/Elias
The big benefit and key to deal is obviously Smith. No excuses for Farrell now to try and bleed an extra inning out of pitchers the third or 4th time through the order
I mean the pen is now objectively a pretty big strength
CL - Kimbrel
8th- Koji
7th- Smith/Tazawa
LH - Ross/Layne/
LM - Wright
The Sox rotation still may lack an ideal number 2 ceiling/consistency wise , but it still shakes out pretty comfortably IMHO.
1) Price 2) Ed Rod 3) Buch 4) Porcello 5) Kelly/Owens/Johnson/Elias
The big benefit and key to deal is obviously Smith. No excuses for Farrell now to try and bleed an extra inning out of pitchers the third or 4th time through the order
I mean the pen is now objectively a pretty big strength
CL - Kimbrel
8th- Koji
7th- Smith/Tazawa
LH - Ross/Layne/
LM - Wright
I'm mildly optimistic about the work done by Carl Willis with Kelly and Porcello. Kelly had an 8-0, 2.59 stretch in August and September and Porcello had eight quality starts in his last 12 games pitched with an overall 3.49 ERA in those dozen games. With the addition of Brian Bannister to the team, I'm hopeful that the fact they traded Miley instead of Kelly is a sign that the Sox are high on Kelly's ability going forward.
I AM excited to watch this year's staff. Happy to pay the freight for both Kimbrel and Price to slot everyone into their proper place.
Times like this is when I miss Eric Van. By now he'd have atleast eight pages on why Elias is the absolutely the next Clayton Kershaw
Aside from all the great statistical stuff already posted Carson is a stud workhorse - 70 IP last year.