Sox in on Giolito?

[jacklamabe65]

Chris Cotillo

@ChrisCotillo

Source confirms Red Sox are in on Lucas Giolito, as
@jonmorosi
reported. Giolito was someone who was discussed frequently in internal organizational discussions over the summer.

 

[adcasaletto]

Chris Cotillo
@ChrisCotillo

Source confirms Red Sox are in on Lucas Giolito, as
@jonmorosi
reported. Giolito was someone who was discussed frequently in internal organizational discussions over the summer.

For what he's likely to get paid and two fairly mediocre seasons in a row, I'd be inclined to kick the tires, but no thanks. MLBTR pegging him as getting 2/44. That's money that can be used elsewhere, AKA, backing the truck up for YY.

 

[grepal]

Joel Sherman on MLBN mentioned the Red Sox as one of the teams in on Juan Soto.

I can't like that news enough.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Oh no I would dread us signing Giolito. That would have disaster written all over it. He pitched for the White Sox, Cleveland and LAA last year, and I'd bet the majority of fans in all 3 places are happy to see him gone.

He's projected to put up a 4.31 ERA, 4.39 FIP in 164 IP next year. And that's the projection for him pitching for an average team, not with offense-boosting Fenway as his home park. Not horrible numbers, but no better than guys we already have, like Houck (projected 4.27 ERA, 4.16 FIP) or Pivetta (4.46, 4.33 FIP).

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lucas-giolito/15474/stats?position=P
We should be bringing in someone better than those guys, not paying a bunch for someone so risky.
Please no.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

For what he's likely to get paid and two fairly mediocre seasons in a row, I'd be inclined to kick the tires, but no thanks. MLBTR pegging him as getting 2/44. That's money that can be used elsewhere, AKA, backing the truck up for YY.

I‘m likely in the minority here, but if the Sox could get Giolito on short guaranteed money with some hefty team options baked in, I’d be all aboard that. Say something like MLBTR projects and call it 2/$45m guaranteed with a team options in 2025 at $25m and in 2026 at $28m.

The White Sox, as an organization, seem to suck equally at all phases of the game. I think the objective talent is there with Giolito for Breslow and Bailey to simply get him back to being the guy he was for three seasons from ‘19-‘21 (and in 2022 he wasn’t “that” bad; FG had him as worth around $15m that year.

But two guaranteed years with the ability to control for two more for ages 29-32 and I’d be all over that.

Maybe he peaked at ages 25-27 and is now completely worthless, and that is a risk. But looking at his prospect pedigree and what he did those years and that he would still be in the middle of one’s ostensible prime, I think that is something Breslow and Bailey could do wonders with.

 

[adcasaletto]

I‘m likely in the minority here, but if the Sox could get Giolito on short guaranteed money with some hefty team options baked in, I’d be all aboard that. Say something like MLBTR projects and call it 2/$45m guaranteed with a team options in 2025 at $25m and in 2026 at $28m.

The White Sox, as an organization, seem to suck equally at all phases of the game. I think the objective talent is there with Giolito for Breslow and Bailey to simply get him back to being the guy he was for three seasons from ‘19-‘21 (and in 2022 he wasn’t “that” bad; FG had him as worth around $15m that year.

But two guaranteed years with the ability to control for two more for ages 29-32 and I’d be all over that.

Maybe he peaked at ages 25-27 and is now completely worthless, and that is a risk. But looking at his prospect pedigree and what he did those years and that he would still be in the middle of one’s ostensible prime, I think that is something Breslow and Bailey could do wonders with.

Agree to disagree then, because two straight years of regression with walk rates climbing and HRs allowed also climbing, I just don't think it plays will on Boston, regardless of a pitching guru.

I could be wrong, but if the difference between the 22M a year for Giolito an 30 for YY is that "small", you spend that money on the 25 year old.

If he signs for a Kluber like $10M pillow contact, that's fine to me. Otherwise, spend elsewhere.

 

[jteders1]

I‘m likely in the minority here, but if the Sox could get Giolito on short guaranteed money with some hefty team options baked in, I’d be all aboard that. Say something like MLBTR projects and call it 2/$45m guaranteed with a team options in 2025 at $25m and in 2026 at $28m.

The White Sox, as an organization, seem to suck equally at all phases of the game. I think the objective talent is there with Giolito for Breslow and Bailey to simply get him back to being the guy he was for three seasons from ‘19-‘21 (and in 2022 he wasn’t “that” bad; FG had him as worth around $15m that year.

But two guaranteed years with the ability to control for two more for ages 29-32 and I’d be all over that.

Maybe he peaked at ages 25-27 and is now completely worthless, and that is a risk. But looking at his prospect pedigree and what he did those years and that he would still be in the middle of one’s ostensible prime, I think that is something Breslow and Bailey could do wonders with.

I agree with this. If Breslow is the type of guy that we think he may be, then this is the type of player you go after. He was getting Cy Young votes as recently as 2021. Throw in the fact that he pitched for one of the most dysfunctional organizations in sports, and it points to high upside. I’d be fairly confident that even if he didn’t get back to being a #1 starter, I think at worst we’d be looking at a number 3, or 4 who eats up innings. This team desperately needs a guy like that. If he’s the only “big” acquisition, that would be disappointing, but if you get YY, or Montgomery with him and Lugo and we’re cooking with something at that point.

 

[JM3]

I've spent the last 15 minutes trying to fix Giolito & the only thing I can think of is like adding a cutter or a splitter or something. He's basically a 3-pitch pitcher (4-seam, changeup, slider) as he only very rarely throws his curveball.

He doesn't throw very hard (93.1, 34th percentile), but he still has slightly too large of a gap to his changeup (12.2 mph). All of his pitches are below average in horizontal break & his changeup is also below average in vertical break.

The weird thing is that he had very similar mediocre stuff back in '21 when he was pitching pretty well (3.53 ERA, 3.75 xFIP). The main difference is he walks about an extra hitter per 9 innings (37th percentile compared to 69th).

A couple other red flags for me from last season is that he had a 6.08 road ERA & he wasn't particularly good any of the times through the lineup (4.19/5.94/4.50).

I don't think there's enough upside in his profile for that to be something I'm interested in investing in. One year with a team option if nothing else comes to fruition? Sure. But there have got to be more exciting reclamation projects out there.

 

[jteders1]

Agree to disagree then, because two straight years of regression with walk rates climbing and HRs allowed also climbing, I just don't think it plays will on Boston, regardless of a pitching guru.

I could be wrong, but if the difference between the 22M a year for Giolito an 30 for YY is that "small", you spend that money on the 25 year old.

If he signs for a Kluber like $10M pillow contact, that's fine to me. Otherwise, spend elsewhere.

Seems like there was something wrong with the Chi Sox. All of their pitchers regressed last year. Giolito’s stuff is still good.

 

[adcasaletto]

Seems like there was something wrong with the Chi Sox. All of their pitchers regressed last year. Giolito’s stuff is still good.

If we end up with him, I sure hope you're correct. I really am getting tired of reclamation projects.

 

[JM3]

If we end up with him, I sure hope you're correct. I really am getting tired of reclamation projects.

If we're going the reclamation route it would be a lot more fun to go for a guy with much better stuff like Frankie Montas who has a lot more tools that pitching gurus should be able to tap into than Giolito.

I get the injury stuff, but if the price is right? Would be a fun to add a guy who throws that hard with 5 interesting, tweakable pitches. & he came back for the end of the season. Get him in the building, get him on the right health & fitness program & you have top of the rotation upside.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Giollito is precisely what I would wish on my worst enemy. Cleveland picked him up just to upgrade on the carcass of Noah Syndergaard last season and he somehow managed to be worse. His "stuff" has most definitely not been good since leaving the White Sox. I don't know what it is – I'm not claiming some character flaw or anything like that – but he's not what you'd ever call a battler. From what I saw of him with the Guardians and previously pitching against them a lot with the White Sox, when Giolito doesn't have his best command, you cannot possibly pull him from a game fast enough. You'll find yourself down 5-0 before you know what happened.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Seems like there was something wrong with the Chi Sox. All of their pitchers regressed last year. Giolito’s stuff is still good.

Their hitters too. Hard to understand a team where so many veteran players, in the prime of their careers, dramatically underperformed.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah, the hardest of passes on Giolito for me. The variance is too much and he has been awful. Would much rather go Lugo, if the money is comparable. Do your due diligence and all that but would only want him if his market absolutely craters.

 

[effectivelywild]

Seems like there was something wrong with the Chi Sox. All of their pitchers regressed last year. Giolito’s stuff is still good.

I realize that this is probably a function of you posting at about the same time as JM3 but its very difficult to square your evaluation with his somewhat more detailed take.

I've spent the last 15 minutes trying to fix Giolito & the only thing I can think of is like adding a cutter or a splitter or something. He's basically a 3-pitch pitcher (4-seam, changeup, slider) as he only very rarely throws his curveball.

He doesn't throw very hard (93.1, 34th percentile), but he still has slightly too large of a gap to his changeup (12.2 mph). All of his pitches are below average in horizontal break & his changeup is also below average in vertical break.

The weird thing is that he had very similar mediocre stuff back in '21 when he was pitching pretty well (3.53 ERA, 3.75 xFIP). The main difference is he walks about an extra hitter per 9 innings (37th percentile compared to 69th).

I think at the end of the day, there's no real evidence that Giolito's stuff IS still good. If you take a look at his Baseball Savant page I think you will similarly find not much evidence that his stuff is overall that good---there are some ok looking pieces here and there but the blue outnumbers the red. Now I'll admit that this doesn't prove that he can no longer be effective---that's why they play the games rather than just plugging numbers into a spreadsheet and crowning the Excel Series champion, but if you're going to say his stuff is still good, I would appreciate if you could explain how you came to that conclusion, if only so I can understand better.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

As someone whom would like Giolito (only on a multi year deal, I’m sick of the entire rotation of one year players and having nothing to build on), I guess it’s more a function of what one thinks a good pitching coach can - and cannot - do (and I think Bailey IS a good pitching coach.

I‘d rather bet on he and Breslow “fixing” someone like Giolito at 29 to get back to what he was at 25-27, or to get more out of his stuff. I think that is far more likely than teaching someone with exceptional stuff (Montas) to suddenly be healthy at 30 when he’s had an entire career of not being healthy.

Bailey at least has some experience with that. Webb had a lot of blue on his baseball savant page early on, for instance.

Don’t get me wrong, in descending order I want Yamamoto, Nola (though he’s gone) Montgomery, a trade for Gilbert or similar over Giolito and it’s not close. But I do think it’d be more likely to get Giolito back to the 2019-21guy than to suddenly make Snell, Flaherty, Sale, Paxton, Montas, Sonny Gray or whoever able to pitch 30 games.

 

[JM3]

As someone whom would like Giolito (only on a multi year deal, I’m sick of the entire rotation of one year players and having nothing to build on), I guess it’s more a function of what one thinks a good pitching coach can - and cannot - do (and I think Bailey IS a good pitching coach.

I‘d rather bet on he and Breslow “fixing” someone like Giolito at 29 to get back to what he was at 25-27, or to get more out of his stuff. I think that is far more likely than teaching someone with exceptional stuff (Montas) to suddenly be healthy at 30 when he’s had an entire career of not being healthy.

Bailey at least has some experience with that. Webb had a lot of blue on his baseball savant page early on, for instance.

Don’t get me wrong, in descending order I want Yamamoto, Nola (though he’s gone) Montgomery, a trade for Gilbert or similar over Giolito and it’s not close. But I do think it’d be more likely to get Giolito back to the 2019-21guy than to suddenly make Snell, Flaherty, Sale, Paxton, Montas, Sonny Gray or whoever able to pitch 30 games.

Carlos Rodon spent 1 year under Bailey & started 31 games. His next highest totals other than that year were 28 in 2016 & 24 in '21.

Gausman's career high in innings was also in the one non-Covid year under Bailey.

 

[BornToRun]

Yeah, the hardest of passes on Giolito for me. The variance is too much and he has been awful. Would much rather go Lugo, if the money is comparable. Do your due diligence and all that but would only want him if his market absolutely craters.

The only way I’d be okay with Giolito is if he has no market and what we gave Kluber is the best he can get.

 

[chawson]

I've spent the last 15 minutes trying to fix Giolito & the only thing I can think of is like adding a cutter or a splitter or something. He's basically a 3-pitch pitcher (4-seam, changeup, slider) as he only very rarely throws his curveball.

He doesn't throw very hard (93.1, 34th percentile), but he still has slightly too large of a gap to his changeup (12.2 mph). All of his pitches are below average in horizontal break & his changeup is also below average in vertical break.

The weird thing is that he had very similar mediocre stuff back in '21 when he was pitching pretty well (3.53 ERA, 3.75 xFIP). The main difference is he walks about an extra hitter per 9 innings (37th percentile compared to 69th).

A couple other red flags for me from last season is that he had a 6.08 road ERA & he wasn't particularly good any of the times through the lineup (4.19/5.94/4.50).

I don't think there's enough upside in his profile for that to be something I'm interested in investing in. One year with a team option if nothing else comes to fruition? Sure. But there have got to be more exciting reclamation projects out there.

Giolito is 6’6” and has one of the greatest release extension points in baseball. Seems like that would help play up his fastball.

There hasn’t been any change in that over the years. His extension point has grown from (coincidentally) 6.6 ft (per Statcast) in 2019 to 6.8 ft. in 2023, while his release point height has dropped a couple inches.

I have no idea how they’d fix him, but he seems like a solid project with a good amount of upside and pushing the release point/stride/extension stuff seems like a place they’d look.

 

[JM3]

Giolito is 6’6” and has one of the greatest release extension points in baseball. Seems like that would help play up his fastball.

There hasn’t been any change in that over the years. His extension point has grown from (coincidentally) 6.6 ft (per Statcast) in 2019 to 6.8 ft. in 2023, while his release point height has dropped a couple inches.

I have no idea how they’d fix him, but he seems like a solid project with a good amount of upside and pushing the release point/stride/extension stuff seems like a place they’d look.

His fastball isn't particularly effective, though, even with that extension. Maybe lack of movement combined with only average effective speed even with the extension? Idk seems like he'll be way too expensive for a reclamation project.

But I'll trust whatever they choose to do, even if that particularly signing would push the edges of my trust real quick if something fairly drastic doesn't change with the arsenal next year.

 

[chawson]

His fastball isn't particularly effective, though, even with that extension. Maybe lack of movement combined with only average effective speed even with the extension? Idk seems like he'll be way too expensive for a reclamation project.

But I'll trust whatever they choose to do, even if that particularly signing would push the edges of my trust real quick if something fairly drastic doesn't change with the arsenal next year.

Maybe they think they could get his extension even greater? It’s been mostly stagnant since his excellent 2019 season (coupled with a 1 mph drop in FB velocity). He also lost a few inches off his vertical release point in that time.

Easier said than done — and I don’t know how long these guys’ limbs are — but maybe it’s possible? It seems clear that it’s something they worked on with Pivetta, who gained several inches in vertical release point and extension point after we acquired him.

Pivetta, 2019: 6.23 avg. ft vertical release point | 6.3 ft. extension
Pivetta, 2021: 6.58 | 6.6
Pivetta, 2023: 6.59 | 6.8

Pivetta is 6’5”, one inch shorter than Giolito, and has a greater extension. But everyone has varying capacities, obviously. Spencer Strider is (generously) 6’0” and has a 7-foot extension point. Nick Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Pivetta, Paxton, Eovaldi, Wacha, Schreiber and of course Whitlock all have ++ extension points, so the Sox seem like one of the teams (among many) that have focused on it.

 

[JM3]

Maybe they think they could get his extension even greater? It’s been mostly stagnant since his excellent 2019 season (coupled with a 1 mph drop in FB velocity). He also lost a few inches off his vertical release point in that time.

Easier said than done — and I don’t know how long these guys’ limbs are — but maybe it’s possible? It seems clear that it’s something they worked on with Pivetta, who gained several inches in vertical release point and extension point after we acquired him.

Pivetta, 2019: 6.23 avg. ft vertical release point | 6.3 ft. extension
Pivetta, 2021: 6.58 | 6.6
Pivetta, 2023: 6.59 | 6.8

Pivetta is 6’5”, one inch shorter than Giolito, and has a greater extension. But everyone has varying capacities, obviously. Spencer Strider is (generously) 6’0” and has a 7-foot extension point. Nick Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Pivetta, Paxton, Eovaldi, Wacha, Schreiber and of course Whitlock all have ++ extension points, so the Sox seem like one of the teams (among many) that have focused on it.

Who knows? Not sure if the new bosses prioritize extension as much, or how much of a learner of things Giolito is.

But $20m+ is not project prices.

 

[TomRicardo]

Who knows? Not sure if the new bosses prioritize extension as much, or how much of a learner of things Giolito is.

But $20m+ is not project prices.

2+ WAR pitcher without major injury concerns is going to cost you 60/3 nowadays on the free agent market.

 

[JM3]

2+ WAR pitcher without major injury concerns is going to cost you 60/3 nowadays on the free agent market.

Giolito hasn't been a 2+ WAR pitcher by either fWAR or bWAR since '21 & I don't see much in his profile to be optimistic about going forward. & the good thing is, you don't need to pay market prices for mediocre free agents when you have cost controlled guys with similar levels of mediocrity.

Total bWAR last 2 years:
Pivetta 5.0 (1/$6.9m - arb estimate)
Bello 3.5 ($740K)
Houck 2.9 ($740k)
Crawford 2.6($740k)
Giolito 2.1 (3/$60m?)
Whitlock 2.0 ($4.7m per year for 3 more years then 2 team options)
Sale 1.7 (1/$25.6m with a team option)

This really underscores the importance of cost-controlled pitching more than anything. But if I'm going to invest money in a free agent pitcher I want one of 2 things:

1) Top of the rotation pitcher.
2) Buying low on someone you expect to do better.

Giolito is absolutely not a top of the rotation pitcher, & I've gone through the work to show why I personally don't think he's a good buy low candidate. & you are certainly not buying low on him at 3/$60m+ anyway. So if the market says a pitcher like him should get 3/$60m, that's fine. I just want no part of that market.

 

[adcasaletto]

Giolito hasn't been a 2+ WAR pitcher by either fWAR or bWAR since '21 & I don't see much in his profile to be optimistic about going forward. & the good thing is, you don't need to pay market prices for mediocre free agents when you have cost controlled guys with similar levels of mediocrity.

Total bWAR last 2 years:
Pivetta 5.0 (1/$6.9m - arb estimate)
Bello 3.5 ($740K)
Houck 2.9 ($740k)
Crawford 2.6($740k)
Giolito 2.1 (3/$60m?)
Whitlock 2.0 ($4.7m per year for 3 more years then 2 team options)
Sale 1.7 (1/$25.6m with a team option)

This really underscores the importance of cost-controlled pitching more than anything. But if I'm going to invest money in a free agent pitcher I want one of 2 things:

1) Top of the rotation pitcher.
2) Buying low on someone you expect to do better.

Giolito is absolutely not a top of the rotation pitcher, & I've gone through the work to show why I personally don't think he's a good buy low candidate. & you are certainly not buying low on him at 3/$60m+ anyway. So if the market says a pitcher like him should get 3/$60m, that's fine. I just want no part of that market.

Couldn't agree more. As you said before, $20M+ is not a project price. If I'm spending 20, spend the extra 5-10 and get a top of the rotation piece.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Couldn't agree more. As you said before, $20M+ is not a project price. If I'm spending 20, spend the extra 5-10 and get a top of the rotation piece.

I think even those of us that like the idea of Giolito (raises hand) agree fully with the above.

The idea behind Giolito is more if the Sox miss out on YY, Montgomery and Snell (whom I don't want, but agree that objectively is certainly a top half of the rotation piece) - or as someone to go along with the acquisition of one of those or a Gilbert/Cease/Keller type. At least for me.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is outstanding and fairly convincing information which makes me seriously question whether Cotillo's source is just an agent. Unless there's some real hidden fix that Breslow and Bailey already know about, I would have to assume that they have an otherwise extremely well informed opinion of Giolito's relative mediocrity to do nothing more than kicking the tires on a pillow contract.