Not sure there is such a thing as harder in that case. It's like infinity + 1 is the same as infinity. Boras is a nightmare with or without an heir apparent factor.
Sox get Kimbrel
- Thread starter John Marzano Olympic Hero
- Start date
It is nice to have feelings. It is better to have thoughts and facts.
Margot was considered a top 100 prospect by multiple non-sox sources, and here's three of them: baseball america, fangraphs, baseball prospectus.
In this year, Margot had a 113 wRC+ with a .303 BABIP and .147 ISO as a 21 year old at AA (282 PA), which is consistent with his A ball stats. He's a center fielder with plus speed and defense, with the potential to add power later in his career.
Doubt it, since they're planning to pay over $10MM for 8th inning set-up without him, already.
I just hope Wren's eye for decent bullpen arms can help the Sox pick up a couple "failed starter" hard-throwing types with one option year left -- like Miller was circa 2010 -- who could be picked up on the cheap and become viable bullpen conversion projects to backfill the impending departures of Taz and Koji after next season.
Had the same thought, but this at least is filling a hole that absolutely needed to be filled. There's no top-flight guy at the position that the Sox decided to just let go in order to chase Kimbrel.
I realize this is all hindsight. And letting Beltre go netted JBJ and Swihart. Every move has upside and downside.
Now that I think about it. This deal for Kimbrel is very reminiscent of the types of deals Frank Wren made with the Braves.
man oh man after all the overrated guys i wish we had sold high on in the past - hello cecchini, ranaudo, etc - losing margot and guerra is a real kick in the gut.
Margot especially - here's a kid with plus defense and speed at a key position, who has hit well above league average even though he's playing 2 levels high for his age. He doesn't strike out and has even shown some power potential. This one is gonna sting i think. He's gonna be a good mlber and soon i think.
guerra is good too but much more of a lottery ticket - also has plus D at a key position, but his solid above league average hitting line comes only one level high for his age, and with worrying K numbers. Doesn't have Margot's speed either.
think about it this way - both margot and devers were two levels high for their age, and both hit similarly above league average (~115wrc+) - except that margot did it with better underlying numbers and plus speed and D at a key position, while devers is pretty much just about hitting.
I really, really don't like losing Margot. This kid is a gem. He was one of the keepers imo. We should have traded devers instead.
Margot especially - here's a kid with plus defense and speed at a key position, who has hit well above league average even though he's playing 2 levels high for his age. He doesn't strike out and has even shown some power potential. This one is gonna sting i think. He's gonna be a good mlber and soon i think.
guerra is good too but much more of a lottery ticket - also has plus D at a key position, but his solid above league average hitting line comes only one level high for his age, and with worrying K numbers. Doesn't have Margot's speed either.
think about it this way - both margot and devers were two levels high for their age, and both hit similarly above league average (~115wrc+) - except that margot did it with better underlying numbers and plus speed and D at a key position, while devers is pretty much just about hitting.
I really, really don't like losing Margot. This kid is a gem. He was one of the keepers imo. We should have traded devers instead.
I guess it was also one year of A-Gon (plus the chance to negotiate) vs three plus an option of Kimbrel.
So...150 games in one season vs. 240 over four seasons (assuming the option gets picked up?). Obviously Kimbrel will be involved in much higher leverage situations, however, A-Gon would be involved in more innings, which makes this a difficult comparison...
If the rotation is:
1. Free agent ace
2. Buchholz
3. ERod
4. Porcello
5. Miley
6. Owens
7. Johnson
Then Joe Kelly can become a power arm in the pen who can be an actual long man if needed.
A pen of Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Ross, Kelly is a nice start.
He's not a particularly hard thrower, but Bud Norris is basically a two-pitch guy who racks up tons of strikeouts.
On the other hand, he was just as terrible as a reliever as he was as a starter last season. And even with that, I think some desperate team will give him a rotation spot.
Seems like a huge hole was filled by acquiring a very good player without giving up any of the truly special talents in the system. Guerra and Margot together seems a little steep to me, but they were arguably the two most blocked upper echelon prospects.
I don't love this deal, but I understand why DD made it.
I don't love this deal, but I understand why DD made it.
If Kimbrel is what Kimbrel has been, for the next 3 years, Dombrowski will be more than vindicated for making this trade. I love the prospects too but if this is the bulk of the prospects we are giving up this offseason, I can live with an overpay for elite talent.
Umm, I'm looking for a bit more from one of the most knowledgeable posters on the main board. Are you saving it for an article?
Hard to disagree with this. Especially if the FA is Price.
Prospects from 2010 who were similarly ranked to Margot:
21 Ryan Westmoreland
22 Aroldis Chapman
23 Tyler Matzek
24 Casey Kelly
25 Kyle Drabek
26 Jacob Turner
27 Brett Wallace
28 Chris Carter
29 Michael Taylor
30 Michael Saunders
Only one, arguably two, of those is more than MLB filler today. It's realistic to say that Margot has about a 10-20% chance of being more than MLB filler in a few years, and he has about an equal chance of never making it to the majors at all. Kimbrel, on the other hand, has about a 95% chance of being an elite reliever right now.
What's more, Kimbrel instantly fills the Sox' position of greatest need, while Margot comes from the Sox position of greatest redundancy.
You need to give to get. I personally would have been pissed at losing Devers or Moncada. Kimbrel has been compared to Slocumb Joel Hanarahan and Melancon in the last two hours. For a really smart board these comparisons are moronic. Kimbrel is 27 and has three more years of control. Also one year removed from being the best closer in baseball. For the view point of well this is someone who only pitches one inning I'll just point to KC to tell you how valuable an elite bullpen is.
Jesus fuck, no they didn't. Your prospect humping is well noted here, but this is above and beyond even for you. There's plenty to grind your teeth about on this deal without getting hyperbolic about it.
Logan Allen is an 18 yo lottery ticket that pitched 24 innings at friggin Lowell. Carlos Asuaje is a 23 yo, mediocre defender at 2B that managed a .251/.334/.374 line at AA. Neither of these are worth shit. Allen maybe someday pans out. Asuaje isn't even up to your high water mark on Sean Coyle around this time last year.
Kimbrel, Koji and Kelly...the killer Ks
I'm trying to feel good about this overpay. I guess DD warned us that there would be 'pain'.
Dave, just extend Mookie and X on the cheap and all is forgiven...
I'm trying to feel good about this overpay. I guess DD warned us that there would be 'pain'.
Dave, just extend Mookie and X on the cheap and all is forgiven...
The 18 yo guy who was an 8th round pick and has been in the organization for a matter of months and threw 24 innings at short season is the "kicker" for you? Seriously?
I agree. Even the SoxProspects guys indicated that if Guerra was traded this winter, the Sox were likely trading 'high' because of the 4:1 K:BB ratio, suggesting his power and average this season may be a bit of a mirage. Elite defense + salami bat = Deven Marrero. I'm not concerned here.
And we're really crying about Logan Allen? A relatively big kid who looks like Lester but sits 88-91 and wouldn't be in the majors before 2020? DD likes power arms, and Allen ain't that. Case closed.
Asuaje? Already 24 with an upside of a utility IF? I mean, he's kind of interesting, but we have Holt, Marrero et al that already fit this profile and are only a little older.
I'm fine with this trade. Margot is the jewel, and Guerra may provide superior defense in a couple of years, but I'll take Kimbrel and keep the other higher-rated young'uns any day of the week.
Chris Sale and Sonny Gray ain't waliking through that door...
Gotta figure that having Kimbrel in the bullpen will also be a positive factor when courting any FA starters.
I think this deal is a perfect example of the "pain" DD alluded to earlier this week. If either Margot or Guerra reach their respective most rosy optimistic ceilings it makes the deal weighted heavily toward SD. Further, the attached anecdote from Speier is discouraging with regard to Allen.
However, from a DD/Red Sox perspective and the comparison to the A-Gone deal seems decent in one aspect. Here like then Red Sox traded three high end prospects and one( Rizzo) exploded. Here, Margot is pretty likely to at least be an average overall outfielder whereas the Sox are busting to the seams with Betts Bradley , Castillo, Benintendi potentially Moncada,. To be frank once Benintendi showed he was legit in his limited minor league time I was pretty resigned to Margot getting shipped. Guerra rocketed up prospect rankings last year but is probably, at least, 3 years away and IMHO X will be here for a long time Boras be damned (see E.Andrus extension).
I don't think this package gets an ace without adding a Swihart, Moncada, Devers, or Benintendi. It puts more pressure on DD to lure Price with a record setting contract or Greinke who I like alot. All in all the Sox are better today for the 2016 season and they traded away two guys as the center pieces I expected to get dealt. I agree with what someone up thread said that Kelly is likely ticketed for pen.
"Once in the Sox system, he reminded some team officials of a familiar pitcher in both appearance and delivery.
“If you put his video right next to Jon Lester, you’d think it was Jon Lester. That’s how eerily similar the body type is, the delivery is, the way he looks,” said GCL Red Sox manager Tom Kotchman. “When our scouts first saw him at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, that’s exactly what he looks like.”
“I actually think Logan’s curveball is more advanced than Jon’s was,” said Red Sox pitching coordinator Ralph Treuel, who worked with Lester as an 18-year-old after the Red Sox picked him in the 2002 draft. “The secondary pitches, both of them – the changeup and curveball – are a little more advanced. I think Jon threw a little harder early on. But that’s a pretty good guy to be compared to.”
But as an 18-year-old who regularly worked at 92-93 mph (a likely above-average pitch given his ability to repeat his delivery and command), he showed comfort incorporating his changeup, demonstrated the ability to spin a curveball, and threw four pitches for strikes while punching out 26 and walking just one in 24 1/3 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Lowell. Allen showed what could be No. 3 or No. 4 starter potential.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/13/closer-look-prospects-red-sox-traded-away/622IxpiHRfp21cQ3jE5g9N/story.html
However, from a DD/Red Sox perspective and the comparison to the A-Gone deal seems decent in one aspect. Here like then Red Sox traded three high end prospects and one( Rizzo) exploded. Here, Margot is pretty likely to at least be an average overall outfielder whereas the Sox are busting to the seams with Betts Bradley , Castillo, Benintendi potentially Moncada,. To be frank once Benintendi showed he was legit in his limited minor league time I was pretty resigned to Margot getting shipped. Guerra rocketed up prospect rankings last year but is probably, at least, 3 years away and IMHO X will be here for a long time Boras be damned (see E.Andrus extension).
I don't think this package gets an ace without adding a Swihart, Moncada, Devers, or Benintendi. It puts more pressure on DD to lure Price with a record setting contract or Greinke who I like alot. All in all the Sox are better today for the 2016 season and they traded away two guys as the center pieces I expected to get dealt. I agree with what someone up thread said that Kelly is likely ticketed for pen.
"Once in the Sox system, he reminded some team officials of a familiar pitcher in both appearance and delivery.
“If you put his video right next to Jon Lester, you’d think it was Jon Lester. That’s how eerily similar the body type is, the delivery is, the way he looks,” said GCL Red Sox manager Tom Kotchman. “When our scouts first saw him at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, that’s exactly what he looks like.”
“I actually think Logan’s curveball is more advanced than Jon’s was,” said Red Sox pitching coordinator Ralph Treuel, who worked with Lester as an 18-year-old after the Red Sox picked him in the 2002 draft. “The secondary pitches, both of them – the changeup and curveball – are a little more advanced. I think Jon threw a little harder early on. But that’s a pretty good guy to be compared to.”
But as an 18-year-old who regularly worked at 92-93 mph (a likely above-average pitch given his ability to repeat his delivery and command), he showed comfort incorporating his changeup, demonstrated the ability to spin a curveball, and threw four pitches for strikes while punching out 26 and walking just one in 24 1/3 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Lowell. Allen showed what could be No. 3 or No. 4 starter potential.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/13/closer-look-prospects-red-sox-traded-away/622IxpiHRfp21cQ3jE5g9N/story.html
Doesn't this feel a bit like a football coach deciding before the game what % of plays should be on the ground?
ya i'm not one to cry about trading prospects as most of them bust.....but at the same time i really don't trust those rankings anymore, especially with sox prospects. they haven't been close to useful the last few years for us imo.
looking at that list of guys there - i'm pretty sure not one of them was excelling at age 20 in AA at that time, with solid underlying numbers and a broad toolset giving them as safe a floor as margot's D + speed gives him.
ach. don't want to whine about it anymore. i just really liked him. even more than much more popular kids who i think are likely overrated like swihart and devers.
hopefully i'm wrong.
Wait, now I'm confused. I thought the guy that looked like Lester was the guy the Angels traded for Simmons yesterday? It's like someone cloned him.
Age aside he was the 13th ranked prospect (by SoxProspects anyway) of a very good system. I had never heard of him before tonight, but I'm a little pissed that Margot and Guerra weren't enough by themselves.
This is really it as well. Also if you're going to spend 5/150 or 7/200 on a starter you don't want said starter throwing 120 pitches per game. The way it's set up is if the Sox are up after 7 they have a chance to end the game right there and then. I'm sorry to all of the prospect humpers but the Sox kept JBJ, they kept Devers, AB, Moncada, Espinoza. They made a bold and calculated move and it's hardly the worst deal ever made.
It looks even more moronic when in your haste to argue your point you totally miss the context of the comparison; I'm fairly certain I'm the only person who's brought up Slocumb, and my point has nothing to do with comparing Slocumb to Kimbrel.
Consistent relievers are few and far between, and taking on a big (for a reliever) salary while also giving up a large haul of prospects gives you lots of exposure to have it come back and bite you.
It's probably worth pointing out that "selling high" can be hard to distinguish from plain "expensive" in trades; you can't sell high if the player doesn't look good when you let him go.
First reaction, WTF
Having read through the thread, and absorbed some of DDs comments, I'm now more circumspect.
From his statements it sounds like any starter deals that may have been available, had a far deeper cost. A cost he found unacceptable. From there, it was go to FA for the starter, and trade for the pen. He talked with the Reds, I'm sure he asked the Indians and ChiSox about their guys, as he did Giles in Philly.
In the end Kimbrel was the best deal because the kids he gave up were all expendable. Benintendi made Margot a luxury. Guerra leapt onto our radar screens on the heels of one really great season, and is at least for now, outpacing his pedigree. He may be what we hoped, but now it's the Padres job to get him there, as well as to finish off Margot. The other kids offered hope, but no real defined path to Boston in any near term. We sold a great deal of superfluous promise for a pretty sure thing. I'm good with the deal, with the knowledge that DD thinks they are done trading.
2016 now seems as simple as adding Price/Greinke/Cueto and moving Kelly to a relief role.
Having read through the thread, and absorbed some of DDs comments, I'm now more circumspect.
From his statements it sounds like any starter deals that may have been available, had a far deeper cost. A cost he found unacceptable. From there, it was go to FA for the starter, and trade for the pen. He talked with the Reds, I'm sure he asked the Indians and ChiSox about their guys, as he did Giles in Philly.
In the end Kimbrel was the best deal because the kids he gave up were all expendable. Benintendi made Margot a luxury. Guerra leapt onto our radar screens on the heels of one really great season, and is at least for now, outpacing his pedigree. He may be what we hoped, but now it's the Padres job to get him there, as well as to finish off Margot. The other kids offered hope, but no real defined path to Boston in any near term. We sold a great deal of superfluous promise for a pretty sure thing. I'm good with the deal, with the knowledge that DD thinks they are done trading.
2016 now seems as simple as adding Price/Greinke/Cueto and moving Kelly to a relief role.
Which means shit. Prospect rankings, whether they be organizational or across baseball are not linear as you move down. The point is that he has very little track record, does not have evaluations that blow you away and should not be causing anyone any more than consternation than trading away Engel Beltre did.
It's not just his age - if this was anderson Espinoza, you can be damn straight I'd be pitching a fit right now. If someone would like to pull up a scouting report that touts him as a major piece, I'm wiling to change my tune. Or if someone actually has seen him pitch, has some crews and wants to chime in, same thing. Meanwhile people are getting worked up over looking at box scores and stat lines from 20 innings in the GCL and 4 innings in Lowell. There has been literally thousands of such players that have turned into crap. Someone tell me why I should think this kid is different?
Only one needs to work for all four to literally not matter to whether or not the Sox got pantsed.
The thing about value returned is that it's a range. The 'conventional wisdom' about RP is based around pure volume of usage and is largely correct, but it doesn't matter even a little bit in the right situation where you think you have a playoff-caliber team with a big hole in the back end of your dike. Uehara is 40. Viewing Kimbrel's value to the 2016 Sox through the prism of a 'standard' 60 innings is beyond stupid. Rending clothes because they gave up Margot and his blocked 10%-chance lottery ticket? Holy crap. If they go into the season with Buchholz as their #1 starter, call me. Until then, stop prospect-humping like a horny Keith Law.
Well at least the Padres will also feel bad about this when Margot and Guerra don't actually have enough power to play in Petco. Best case scenario saber analysts argue one or both would be average or better hitters in a different environment and maybe one has a second chance at another organization. That said still doesn't seem like the best use of resources and if they do come up for the Padres it seems unlikely that we'll get a good test of DD actual ability to evaluate them because of how skewed that park is.
That's a bit strong. It only said that he began the offseason with the idea . . .
Isn't that more like intending to run a certain portion of the plays but still being open to passing more if they can't defend that?
Why would we think Dave Dombrowski wouldn't be nimble or realistic enough to switch to seeking a starter via trade if the opportunity presented itself?
Which is what he would have done to get a starter....then we would all be complaining that Betts was on the move with the other four to get that starter.
Sure. After spending a great deal of time watching film, reading scouting reports and otherwise prepping for that game. You think football coaches DON'T go into a game with a general idea of how often they are going to throw versus how often they are going to run based on what they know about their opponent?
I don't get this criticism...
Fangraphs article about the trade:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/padres-get-a-haul-for-craig-kimbrel/
The cost, however, was quite steep... Kiley McDaniel rated Margot as the #19 prospect in all of baseball, putting a 60 FV grade...
Javier Guerra, who got upgraded to a 50 FV prospect in that same mid-season update. For context, 50 FV prospects ranked from #80 to #142 last year, so that pegs him as a back-end Top 100 prospect, also a valuable asset.
So that’s a Top 25 prospect, a Top 100 prospect, a guy with 2nd-3rd round ability, and a depth piece with enough upside to be kinda interesting. That is a remarkable return for a reliever, and in my view, quite a bit more than what the Angels gave up to acquire Andrelton Simmons yesterday... the Padres got more for a one inning reliever — even a really great one — than the Braves got for a 25 year old above average shortstop is pretty surprising to me.
For A.J. Preller... this marks his first big win as a GM.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/padres-get-a-haul-for-craig-kimbrel/
The cost, however, was quite steep... Kiley McDaniel rated Margot as the #19 prospect in all of baseball, putting a 60 FV grade...
Javier Guerra, who got upgraded to a 50 FV prospect in that same mid-season update. For context, 50 FV prospects ranked from #80 to #142 last year, so that pegs him as a back-end Top 100 prospect, also a valuable asset.
So that’s a Top 25 prospect, a Top 100 prospect, a guy with 2nd-3rd round ability, and a depth piece with enough upside to be kinda interesting. That is a remarkable return for a reliever, and in my view, quite a bit more than what the Angels gave up to acquire Andrelton Simmons yesterday... the Padres got more for a one inning reliever — even a really great one — than the Braves got for a 25 year old above average shortstop is pretty surprising to me.
For A.J. Preller... this marks his first big win as a GM.
For the eleven billionth time, how can anyone who does not have knowledge of the market for Kimbrel, who is has proven himself as an elite reliever and does not have the crystal ball to know how prospects will actually perform, call this an overpay?
Craig Kimbrel cost the Sox four prospects. This is about the only hard fact in this thread. Everything else is just speculation. Save your "I told you so"s for next season when Kimbrel breaks down in early May while Margot and Guerra are leading the Padres to first place in the NL West...or not.
Craig Kimbrel cost the Sox four prospects. This is about the only hard fact in this thread. Everything else is just speculation. Save your "I told you so"s for next season when Kimbrel breaks down in early May while Margot and Guerra are leading the Padres to first place in the NL West...or not.
That article has a link to a really good article about reliever value from Sullivan:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-reliever/
There is no room here for rational thought. I mean one dude kinda looks like Jon Lester, another is the heir apparent to Xander when he is guaranteed to leave in four years (because Boras), another dude is Sean Coyle 2.0 (who we missed the window on packaging with Travis Shaw for Johnny Cueto last offseason) and the other guy is possibly a poor man's Jacoby Ellsbury (not the MVP candidate one) and we have no one to play CF in the organization.
Again, this is no time for a clear head. So please take it elsewhere.
I give Dombrowski enough benefit of the doubt to say that this trade tells us what the market for good relievers looks like. That means that the O'Day market is looking stupid; that the White Sox think they can contend soon and aren't moving Robertson; that the Phillies want a lot of value for Giles, as they should; etc. It's not like Hazen didn't tell him that Margot hit a dozen home runs that time.
I think it's time to turn our attention to how bad-ass Kimbrel is, and how respectable the Sox pen looks once everybody moves down a spot.
CL Kimbrel
Relief Ace Uehara
SU LH Ross
SU RH Tazawa
MI LH Varvaro
MI RH Barnes
Swing Man Wright
This is what I would do. Perhaps Uehara needs more structure at his age; perhaps Farrell isn't this flexible. But if we could use Koji against the heart of the opposing order whatever inning they came up to protect leads on days he was suitably rested, that would be really amazing, and take a lot of pressure off the other guys.
It's not the 60 regular season innings you're paying for. Your paying for 15 innings over 3 series in the postseason tournament. See, Davis, Wade.
They gave up quality to get quality in Margot. They gave up a lottery ticket in Guerra, a position at which they have a 2r year old silver slugger winner and gold glove nominee (never thought I'd type that) with 4 more years of team control, along with a number 1 draft pick and former top 10 prospect himself at AAA, and at least two other intriguing SS prospects in the low minors. Logan Allen is extremely unlikely to ever play major leaggue baseball; he's not even a lottery ticket at this point. Carlos Asuaje was a favorite of mine, but his nickname is "Brock Holt.". If they can't develop another 3 players as interesting as he is in the next 3 years they're failing player development.
In short, they got Craig F'ing Kimbrel!!! He replaces Edwin Mujica from last year's opening day roster. Embrace it. The team that gets the best player usually wins the trade.
I was thinking about this tonight. Obviously, they traded Rizzo in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. But, other than that, don't you have to go back to the Hanley deal to find a level of regret that actually met the performance of the prospect dealt? And, even at that, there's probably no title in 07 without the Hanley trade.
At least Dombrowski is giving up these prospects for elite talent. It could be a hell of a lot worse. I like the deal. When it comes to acquiring elite talent, it's frequently going to seem like an overpay to get them. Why? Because those guys are really rare and don't come on to the market often.
Surely Josh Reddick's 13 fWAR in Oakland should be an honorable mention, given that it's only a win or two behind what Rizzo's given the Cubs. Or was he no longer a prospect?
People aren't adequately accounting for the relative risk ranges involved here. Kimbrel's as sure a closer bet as there is. The prospects SD just got? None are MLB ready. Even Margot's still a ways away. They have high ceilings and therefore value, but there's risk, too. Cecchini looked like he was right on the verge, and then.... If I'm a Padres fan, I'd be disappointed that no MLB talent came back that will help the team compete now, even if I were happy with the overall expected value of the deal.
A perfect example of a writer way too optimistic on prospect upside and dismissing bullpen innings from Mr.Law
Guerra has soft hands and very easy actions at short, a natural at the position who should be a legitimate asset in the majors with his glove. He has great bat speed that generates a lot of power, and his contact rate kept improving as the season went on – 29 percent in the first half, 19 percent in the second – after I saw him having some timing issues in mid-June at Lakewood. He could truly be a monster of a player; a good defensive shortstop who even hits .280 with 20-25 homers is a possible MVP, although Guerra has yet to reach high-A and is probably two years out from the majors
Expecting 20-25 homers for Guerra in Petco seems to be the ultimate wish casting.
Margot alone could be more valuable than Kimbrel by 2017, and Asuaje should be a positive asset by then too.
For Boston, even if you think it's fair value because you believe that the ninth inning is some super-woo time that only the few and the proud can handle, the Red Sox just traded two of their most valuable minor league assets for a 60-inning reliever
Keith apparently missed the Royals and Yankees formula in late innings the last couple of years. Also saying Margot and Guerra are two of THE MOST valuable minor league assets to the Sox is significant narrative molding. The reality is Margot and Guerra were more valuable to basically every other MLB team minus maybe the Cubs.
Really shows you the better writing and analytical skill of Cameron v. Law IMHO.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4522
Guerra has soft hands and very easy actions at short, a natural at the position who should be a legitimate asset in the majors with his glove. He has great bat speed that generates a lot of power, and his contact rate kept improving as the season went on – 29 percent in the first half, 19 percent in the second – after I saw him having some timing issues in mid-June at Lakewood. He could truly be a monster of a player; a good defensive shortstop who even hits .280 with 20-25 homers is a possible MVP, although Guerra has yet to reach high-A and is probably two years out from the majors
Expecting 20-25 homers for Guerra in Petco seems to be the ultimate wish casting.
Margot alone could be more valuable than Kimbrel by 2017, and Asuaje should be a positive asset by then too.
For Boston, even if you think it's fair value because you believe that the ninth inning is some super-woo time that only the few and the proud can handle, the Red Sox just traded two of their most valuable minor league assets for a 60-inning reliever
Keith apparently missed the Royals and Yankees formula in late innings the last couple of years. Also saying Margot and Guerra are two of THE MOST valuable minor league assets to the Sox is significant narrative molding. The reality is Margot and Guerra were more valuable to basically every other MLB team minus maybe the Cubs.
Really shows you the better writing and analytical skill of Cameron v. Law IMHO.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4522
