Since we're posting teams, here's how mine shook out. I'm going to go with ideal lineups. In general, Headley's spot would be taken over by Aviles, and Granderson would be taken over by Kottaras (Guzman to RF, Kottaras to DH) or Bourgeois depending on RHP or LHP.
v. RHP:
1. Peter Bourjos - R - (CF)
2. Joey Votto - L - (1B)
3. Chase Headley - S - (3B)
4. Curtis Granderson - L - (RF)
5. Tyler Colvin - L - (LF)
6. Jhonny Peralta - R - (SS)
7. Kelly Johnson - L - (2B)
8. Jesus Guzman - R - (DH)
9. Russell Martin - R - (C)
Bench:
George Kottaras - L - (C)
Mike Aviles - R - (2B/3B/SS)
Jason Bourgeois - R - (OF/2B)
Jerry Hairston Jr. - R - (IF/OF)
Note: This lineup and catcher situation would be pretty fluid dependent on what kind of pitchers my team would be playing in the future. If I have a few LHP coming on the docket, Kottaras is probably grabbing a couple starts at catcher. If we have a slew of RHP coming, Kottaras would get more DH time. I don't think I can realistically run a catcher platoon (righty/lefty) with a young staff, so Kottaras might be forced in v. LHP sometimes as well.
Thoughts: I'm pretty happy with how the lineup turned out. I feel like over the starting nine, I only really reached for Headley, and with how the 3B market turned out that may not be the worst thing. Votto-Headley-Granderson is one of the scarier trios and I think everyone in this lineup except Russell Martin can do some damage v. RHP. Martin is there primarily for his framing/defense and won't be much help v. RHP.
Additionally, this lineup has a more appealing bench construction than my other lineup. Both Aviles and Bourgeois are capable PH's against a LOOGY coming in, and Hairston gives me a lot of flexibility as well. On the downside, the order itself is very vulnerable to a LOOGY, so maybe I would have to adjust that a bit later on.
v. LHP
1. Peter Bourjos - R - (CF)
2. Jesus Guzman - R - (DH)
3. Joey Votto - L - (1B)
4. Chase Headley - S - (3B)
5. Russell Martin - R - (C)
6. Curtis Granderson - L - (RF)
7. Jhonny Peralta - R - (SS)
8. Mike Aviles - R - (2B)
9. Tyler Colvin - L - (LF)
Bench
Kelly Johnson - L - (2B)
George Kottaras - L - (C)
Jason Bourgeois - R - (2B/OF)
Jerry Hairston Jr. - R - (IF/OF)
Note: I'm guessing Johnson/Hairston and Bourgeois will see a lot of time in these lineups with injuries. Bourgeois might be good enough v. lefties to bench Colvin period if he's terrible and Aviles will have to cover 2B/SS/3B if one of those spots is hurt, so Johnson may have to sneak in.
Thoughts: I'm not as happy about this lineup. This was inevitable as two of my three strongest hitters are lefties, but I ended up with Russell Martin in the five hole which is terrifying. I think that this lineup may be stronger 1-9 in the sense that my weaker guys are righties and they get a boost from this, but it's more than offset by Voto/Granderson/Colvin all being lefties. Without seeing the other lineups, I still think my team is pretty solid on offense if my gut guys (Bourjos, Guzman, Colvin) pan out like I think they will. If two or more of those do not develop, my lineup is in trouble.
The turn around (7-2) is pretty vulnerable to RHP and in general, this lineup can be played around with by a good bullpen manager: a LOOGY and ROOGY could get through the lineup with only one switch. This isn't ideal but it seems like my best option.
The bench composition v. LHP is one of my bigger miscues. I have two backup 2Bs who have shown no proclivity to playing another infield position (can I teach Kelly Johnson something else?) and that leaves Hairston as the only versatile bench player v. LHP (and he's a bit of an Aviles clone). In retrospect, a slightly more versatile MI than Johnson would have served my roster better, but I'm bullish on Kelly Johnson if he's healthy.
Defensive Thoughts:
I'm okay with it. Bourjos is a top flight defender, Martin's framing is among the best in baseball, and Votto/Headley both do good jobs at the corners. Granderson was an abject disaster in CF, but I think he can handle LF or RF at a playable level (if I'm wrong, he and Guzman can switch positions). The MI is disappointing, but I don't think Peralta and Johnson/Aviles will kill my team defense, and with my pitchers (lots of flyballers) having a good outfield is more important to me.
Rotation:
1. Jordan Zimmerman (R)
2. Mike Minor (L)
3. Derek Holland (L)
4. Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
5. Henderson Alvarez (R)
Ugh. Looking at the other rotations has made me happier since there are some other ones with big question marks, but it's hard to be happy about this. For 2013, my upside is a #1/2 (Zimmermann), three #3's (Minor, Holland, Iwakuma), and maybe a #5 (Alvarez). This was the area where I am willing to sacrifice a bit for now in order to be better in the future.
My plan for this is that the first four spots are locked in. Iwakuma was a very nice SP last year and I was happy to get him that late. Holland and Minor deserve their spots and while I don't expect either to light up the world, I expect both to be solid SPs. JZ is JZ. Alvarez is getting the provisional #5 spot because Dylan Bundy isn't ready. I took Henderson Alvarez with the idea that he wouldn't be my permanent 5th SP, but rather that his particular skillset might make him into a useful RP. He has the velocity and stuff to be useful in a short-inning situation, and if he can continue what he was doing at the end of last year and in ST, he might even be a decent SP. Seemed like a worthwhile risk but he will slot in there for now.
Ideally, down the line, Dylan Bundy will slot into the upper part of this rotation (hopefully in the rotation by 2014 and #3 by 2015). This would push Alvarez to the bullpen in the Aceves or Bundy role.
The rotation is my big area of uncertainty, you could tell me I'll have a Top 5 rotation in 2015 or the worst rotation in the league and I'd buy either result being possible.
Bullpen:
Closer: Joel Peralta (R)
Set-Up: Rex Brothers (L)
Middle Reliever: Mark Melancon (R)
Middle Reliever/ROOGY: Brad Ziegler (R)
Middle Reliever/LOOGY: Steve Delabar (R)
Long Relief/Swing: Alfredo Aceves (R)
Long Relief/Swing: Dylan Bundy (R)
One of the weaker bullpens in comparison, but I don't really think bullpen pitchers are that predictable. I put roles on them, but by and large my ideal bullpen would be all situational. For instance, if I was facing the bottom portion of Dannoo's lineup (Willingham, Pence, Carter...), Ziegler would come in whenever, damned the closer. The labels are there but I could easily see Peralta with 15 saves, Brothers with 10, Ziegler with 10, and Delabar with 5, for instance. Since I didn't want to spend premium picks on these guys, I aimed for guys who were really good at one or two things. Ziegler will be in for double plays, Brothers will be in for tough lefties, Delabar for slap-hitting righties, etc.
General Thoughts
Strengths:
- My plan, once I got Votto, was to build an offense around that model. By and large, I think I succeeded. Most of my guys have a good walk rate, some real pop, and and can get on base. It's an offense that would make Jason Giambi proud. There will be lots of walks taken and working of the count, and outside of Bourjos, I think everyone in the lineup can hit the ball out of park enough to be a threat. I don't see many easy outs. There are other lineups I like more for the current term, but if my guys play like I think they can, they'll be potent.
- The team is pretty varied in terms of age and I don't feel like I will have to replace any significant piece during this run for age purposes. Peralta and Hairston are old but almost everyone else falls into the mid-20's and early 30's wheelhouse. This might make my window 2014-2016 but I don't see age being a huge issue.
- In general, outside of SP5, I think I avoided getting a really terrible player in any position of note among starting players, which is nice.
- Best Pick: I would say Votto, but that one was handed to me. I was very excited with the trio of Iwakuma-Guzman-Aviles in R13-15.
Weaknesses:
- There are going to be a lot of pissed off fans when this team goes cold. We have some strikeout prone hitters who make their living more on the TTO scale than the contact scale.
- I don't have that many guys who hit both lefties and righties well. Votto and Headley do, and I don't think Bourjos or Peralta really show splits, but a lot of major splits on the others, which makes them prone to good, diverse bullpens in the late game.
- Basestealing is really not going to happen often with this roster. Bourjos has speed but isn't a great baserunner and of my benchies, only Bourgeois is a good SB guy.
- The rotation is very boom-bust and dependent on developing young players.
- My OF defense is too dependent on Bourjos. Granderson is a big ? mark out there and Guzman/Colvin won't be running down everything. If he gets hurt or doesn't hit, it gives me some serious things to fix up, especially with a flyball heavy team.
- Worst Pick: I think it has to be Dylan Bundy in the early 4th. In retrospect, I was between Lester, Gallardo, and him, and he was by far the riskiest of the three. I think he COULD be better than either of them, but I should have taken the legit #2 and gone from there. Too much of my planning centered around making sure he wouldn't be forced into starting too soon.
Predictions:
Even fully healthy, I don't see this as a playoff team in 2013. I think the WAR projections had it in the low 80's range when I last did them, and that seems about right now that this is finished. I would hope that the number would steadily rise as the older teams drop off and my guys would develop to where I'm a real contender in 2015-16 and possibly a run earlier than that. It's heavily dependent on what kind of players Peter Bourjos, Henderson Alvarez, Jesus Guzman, Dylan Bundy, and Tyler Colvin turn out to be.