Sinkerballers and the Sox Defense

[Rovin Romine]

Speier on Porcello:
 

 
 
However, his breakthrough may have had as much to do with the defense behind him as with his own work on the mound. A pitch-to-contact sinkerballer, Porcello had suffered for years as a result of a Tigers infield that had myriad defensive deficiencies. The team upgraded in 2014, with Nick Castellanos taking over at third for Miguel Cabrera, Cabrera moving to first and Gold Glove candidate Ian Kinsler joining the club as a second baseman. The result was a year in which Porcello’s actual ERA reflected the kind of contact that he elicits, as well as the frequency of his strike-throwing (he averages 5.5 strikeouts and just 2.2 walks per nine innings in his career).

 
Speier on Miley: 
 

 
 
That said, his numbers were made worse by a putrid Diamondbacks defense, and he’s also spent his career in one of the more difficult home pitching environments in the game.

 
We're also apparently in the mix for Masterson, another sinkerballer.
 
So we could end up with three of the five starting pitchers being sinkerballers.  
 
It seems we have excellent infield defense with Sandoval, Pedroia, and Napoli.  Xander seems to be the weak link, although he could provide average defense.  Any which way it'll be additional pressure and scrutiny on Xander.
 
Any thoughts on the implications of this?  It could only be for one year - Porcello is a FA, and Masterson is supposedly looking for a one year make good deal.   
 
I would think that it makes Xander *slightly* more tradable than before, and perhaps JBJ's defense slightly less valuable.  It would also make Napoli less tradeable, due to his excellent defense at first.  
 
Do we see Marrero getting the occasional start as an excellent infield glove?  Do we move Brock Holt for a more defensive infield sub?  I don't know how sinkerballers impact Vasquez's value as a framer.     

 

[foulkehampshire]

Do we see Marrero getting the occasional start as an excellent infield glove?  Do we move Brock Holt for a more defensive infield sub?  I don't know how sinkerballers impact Vasquez's value as a framer.     

 
He'd be able to theoretically grab more called strikes on the lower edge of the plate.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

With how strong the defense is around Bogaerts, I think they will be fine with him providing average or below average defense. If he has a terrible year there defensively but puts it together at the plate, they will look to trade him when his value is up or move him to cover Napoli's exit. I don't think these moves change anything with regard to Xander being traded. Unless a generational talent becomes available, he's staying put. At least for this year.

 

[timlinin8th]

I would think that it makes Xander *slightly* more tradable than before, and perhaps JBJ's defense slightly less valuable.  It would also make Napoli less tradeable, due to his excellent defense at first.  
 
Do we see Marrero getting the occasional start as an excellent infield glove?  Do we move Brock Holt for a more defensive infield sub?  I don't know how sinkerballers impact Vasquez's value as a framer.     

There was a comment in the Porcello thread that bears bringing up, re: Marrero... With Napoli being a FA next season, would it make sense to start getting Xander some time in LF, Ramirez time at 1B, and get Marrero some starts at SS? If that lineup works, Napoli is expendable as a midseason trade and you keep X as he still has a lot of team control... If not, you figure out if you want to trade X or go w his D at SS.

 

[smastroyin]

First, JBJ is clearly not part of their planning right now for anything serious.  Maybe he will be the 4th OF, but even as organizational planning he should be getting the chance to hit in Pawtucket.  His defense is sublime and I still really like his chances, but the organization clearly has different goals.  Obviously the way the CBA works the Sox could relegate him to reserve defensive specialist outfielder but I would hope they would give him a chance to build up some more value than that.
 
I would have the grounds crew cut the grass half an inch higher before using a few sinkerballers as a reason to look to trade Xander.  And more than anything I would give Xander an actual full season of being an MLB SS before writing him off there.

 

[Drek717]

 
He'd be able to theoretically grab more called strikes on the lower edge of the plate.

And since the major change in strike zone calling we saw last year was the low end of the strike zone a combination of sinkerball pitchers and elite framing from Vazquez could make it very hard for hitters to get into good counts and force these guys to elevate their pitches.
 
I also think people overstate Xander's defensive issues.  He was -3.7 UZR/150 last year.  Obviously not a full season sample and UZR needs more than one season to get really accurate, but then in 2013 in a very small sample he had a UZR of +1.8 in only 52 innings, with 5 out of zone plays and only one in zone missed play.  To speculate that Xander is going to wind up as a career 0 to -5 UZR/150 guy, i.e. a below average but ONLY below average, SS is pretty reasonable.  If that is the case he'll land in the middle of the pack with guys like Jean Segura and Starling Castro, better than what Jose Reyes has done for the last half decade, and better than the last year and a half of Nomar's tenure with the Sox.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

And since the major change in strike zone calling we saw last year was the low end of the strike zone a combination of sinkerball pitchers and elite framing from Vazquez could make it very hard for hitters to get into good counts and force these guys to elevate their pitches.

Has anyone done a study on whether GB pitchers had unusually good years in 2015? I can think of a few examples of pitchers who did but has there been anything systematic?

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Bogaerts could also be dealt, putting Marrero at short giving us the best infield in baseball.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

I like SS defense, but not enough to replace a .660 major league OPS with huge potential for improvement with a .545 AAA OPS with a vastly lower ceiling.

How much have the Red Sox been shifting compared to the league? Are we going to see a lot more of that? Seems like a heavy groundball staff would make more sense if they're really buying into the new shifting orthodoxy.

Also it'll bother Cafardo, which is a nice bonus.

 

[smastroyin]

The problem around here is that Marrero would make 2 errors in a week and everyone would say we should have known he was going to suck because of cubically transforming the data from A+ and the Red Sox are stupid and everything sucks.
 
Seriously, the rate at which you guys give up on prospects is almost as amazing to me as the rate at which prospects get overhyped before they get to the majors.  I guess these two things are well related.

 

[URI]

Also something to consider is that Kelly, Masterson, and Porcello are right handed, which, with teams being more open to platooning now than 5+ years ago, will mean more lefties in the opp. lineups.

So though X's range/handiness is a concern, a lot of those groundballs are going to be funneled toward Pedroia/Napoli, and with Miley, mitigated a bit by Sandoval.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Isn't the expectation that Panda may need to move to 1B eventually anyway?  Maybe in 2016 or 2017, Xander's spot at 3B opens up...

 

[foulkehampshire]

Isn't the expectation that Panda may need to move to 1B eventually anyway?  Maybe in 2016 or 2017, Xander's spot at 3B opens up...

 
Worry about that when he stops being a good 3B. Christ, he's only 28. He could very well last the contract as a 3B if he keeps the pounds off. 

 

[TigerBlood]

Adding a couple good but not great sinkerballers, one of whom is here for just one year, does not mean they [SIZE=14.3999996185303px]supplant[/SIZE][SIZE=14.3999996185303px] a potential all-star caliber shortstop before his second full season with Deven Marrero. [/SIZE][SIZE=14.3999996185303px]The Sox front-office is a highly analytical team, and is most likely trying to exploit the plummeting strike zone because its real, an observable, quantifiable, exploitable trend. They are not getting sinkerballers because "speed-and-defense" or whatever.[/SIZE]

 

[Harry Hooper]

Maybe they're really going after quick workers in an effort to buttress NESN ratings?
 
 
As I posted in the Porcello thread, this FO ground-ball pitcher strategy might not look so great if MLB moves to tigghten up the strike zone again.

 

[nvalvo]

Maybe they're really going after quick workers in an effort to buttress NESN ratings?
 
 
As I posted in the Porcello thread, this FO ground-ball pitcher strategy might not look so great if MLB moves to tigghten up the strike zone again.

 
Is there any indication that that would happen?

 

[oumbi]

Self-plagerism here, aka copy and pasting from another post I made on another thread. But this thread maybe more appropriate for this info. I did not see this thread until now.
 
And for whatever a super sss is worth, in terms of ground balls in 2014:
 
Steve Wright
IP = 21
GB = 34
GB/FG Ratio = 2.83
 
Porcello (9th in total # of GB in 2014)
IP = 204.2
GB = 328
GB/FB Ratio = 1.8
 
Dickey (31st in total # of GB in 2014)
IP = 215.2
GB = 281
GB/FG Ratio = 1.25
 
If this sss holds up, Wright might produce a large number of ground balls as well.
 
http://www.sportingc...d-leaders/2014/
 
EDIT: added info on Dickey for context for knuckleball pitchers.

 

[nattysez]

Isn't the expectation that Panda may need to move to 1B eventually anyway?  Maybe in 2016 or 2017, Xander's spot at 3B opens up...

 
If Sandoval is DHing in 2016, his contract is horrifically terrible.  His defense is a significant part of his value.
 
Edit:
 
I don't know what others think of Jonathan Bernhardt (I tend to not put a lot of stock into his opinions about the AL East, since he's biased toward the O's), but FYI:
 

 

Jonathan Bernhardt‏@jonbernhardt

Also for all the talk about bad Detroit D, I'm real tepid on Sandoval/Napoli on the corners for a groundball guy. Bogaerts at SS too
 

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
Is there any indication that that would happen?

 
Depends on whether expanding the zone was strongly linked to Selig's final "victory over PEDs" lap.

 

[Jimy Hendrix]

Unless I'm a year behind on Napoli's defense, that seems bullshitty to me. I thought he was well regarded there, but perhaps the injuries have slowed him down or I am focusing on stretch plays at the bag over actual range?

 

[smastroyin]

A reporter's opinion of defense is roughly as valid as any random informed poster here.
 
No offense, but he is not an expert in any way.  He's just a guy who gets paid to watch baseball.  If he were sharing an opinion from a talent evaluator, I guess that would be something.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

 
 
If Sandoval is DHing in 2016, his contract is horrifically terrible.  His defense is a significant part of his value.
 
Edit:
 
I don't know what others think of Jonathan Bernhardt (I tend to not put a lot of stock into his opinions about the AL East, since he's biased toward the O's), but FYI:
 

Also for all the talk about bad Detroit D, I'm real tepid on Sandoval/Napoli on the corners for a groundball guy. Bogaerts at SS too

 

That makes no sense. Sandoval is an avarageish+ 3b (+2 UZR/150), Napoli has been an excellent 1b with the Red Sox (+10 UZR/150 for the last two years since playing 1b full time). Bernhardt has to be looking strictly at body type and not at the actual numbers. Both Sandoval and Napoli are former catchers (albeit with varying degrees of being awful at it). Sandoval in particular is a big dude but has + hand-eye coordination and quick reaction times which serve him well at the hot corner.
 
 

Unless I'm a year behind on Napoli's defense, that seems bullshitty to me. I thought he was well regarded there, but perhaps the injuries have slowed him down or I am focusing on stretch plays at the bag over actual range?

No, you're correct. He's very good. He was maybe a teeny bit worse last year with injuries and aging, but hardly enough to move him to below anything worse than "good".

 

[Drek717]

 

Isn't the expectation that Panda may need to move to 1B eventually anyway?  Maybe in 2016 or 2017, Xander's spot at 3B opens up...

Sandoval is going to be 28 next season.  He's been a good (not average, but actually GOOD) 3B pretty much his whole career.  Why are we assuming he's falling apart in the next 1-2 seasons?  Because he's fat?  His deal runs through age 32.  That is probably about when he won't be able to play 3B anymore.  So if we're talking Sandoval replacements it should be Chavis and Devers, not Xander.

 
 

 
Depends on whether expanding the zone was strongly linked to Selig's final "victory over PEDs" lap.

What is a more realistic reason for the expanded zone: Selig pushing some sort of PED victory lap, or the more widespread use of Pitchf/x and similar pitch tracking data putting the onus on umpires to call a more accurate zone?  It isn't like umps started calling a bunch of balls strikes.  They started calling a bunch of strikes that had been called balls throughout recent history strikes again.
 
So unless we're going to descend into a technological regression where umpires can suck at their job and not have a mountain of statistical evidence pointing that out to all who are interested I think the "expanded" strike zone is here to stay.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
 

Sandoval is going to be 28 next season.  He's been a good (not average, but actually GOOD) 3B pretty much his whole career.  Why are we assuming he's falling apart in the next 1-2 seasons?  Because he's fat?  His deal runs through age 32.  That is probably about when he won't be able to play 3B anymore.  So if we're talking Sandoval replacements it should be Chavis and Devers, not Xander.

 
 
What is a more realistic reason for the expanded zone: Selig pushing some sort of PED victory lap, or the more widespread use of Pitchf/x and similar pitch tracking data putting the onus on umpires to call a more accurate zone?  It isn't like umps started calling a bunch of balls strikes.  They started calling a bunch of strikes that had been called balls throughout recent history strikes again.
 
So unless we're going to descend into a technological regression where umpires can suck at their job and not have a mountain of statistical evidence pointing that out to all who are interested I think the "expanded" strike zone is here to stay.
 

 
And the machines can't be reclibrated to raise the bottom a bit?

 

[Drek717]

 
And the machines can't be reclibrated to raise the bottom a bit?

Not without re-defining the strike zone.  That or intentionally rigging the machines in some pro-umpire conspiracy.  
 
I feel like it's time for me to go stock up on Reynolds Wrap with how this conversation is going, to be fair.  All signs point to offensive regression in favor of pitching as power becomes scarce and umpires adjust to having every pitch they call suspect to exact factual review as the drivers for the pro-pitching environment we saw last season.  Lets just take the obvious for the obvious and not look for ways this might possibly be a bad thing for the Sox if the rest of the league and the league office conspire to screw the Sox for going with high GB rate pitchers.
 
Also, I'd expect the mound to be lowered a bit before anything else if they want to create more offense, likely backed up by some "pitchers are taller and throw harder than ever before, creating too much of a down striking plane for hitters and putting undo stress on pitcher's arms" excuse as to why it has to happen.  There has already been some within MLB claiming it needs to happen under the later reasoning.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Try not to get too over-wrought! I never made a whiff of a suggestion that there would be some conspiracy to screw the Sox specifically. Rather, the FO strategy (if it exists) may not yield as much fruit as expected if MLB enacts in the near future some counter-measures for the offensive decline. I doubt there will be any change in 2015, but we'll see.

 

[Sprowl]

And the machines can't be reclibrated to raise the bottom a bit?

Not without re-defining the strike zone.  That or intentionally rigging the machines in some pro-umpire conspiracy.

The definition of the strike zone has to be translated into variables that are unique to each batter, so I think there could be some fiddling with the algorithms used to determine what each batter's strike zone is for the purposes of PitchFX designations. If the umpires are indeed responding to PitchFX quality-checking after the fact, then changing the data would change the evaluations, which would change the incentives, which would change the calls going forward.

Here is the strike zone definition:
 

The STRIKE ZONE is that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap. The Strike Zone shall be determined from the batter's stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball.

 
In Clay Buchholz' start against the Royals on 9/11/14, the bottom of the strike zone varied from 1.41' (Aoki) to 1.66' (Cain). The top varied from 3.06' (Aoki) to 3.65' (Cain). Without changing the definition of the strike zone, PitchFX could be set to round the bottom up and the top down, so that Aoki's zone would extend from 1.5' to 3' and Cain's from 1.7' to 3.6'.
 
Arbitrary? Yes. Desirable? that depends on how much offense MLB wants. I want some more.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc

 

[phenweigh]

With the upward trend in using defensive shifts, I foresee the Sox unveiling a new defensive alignment ... 5 infielders, 2 outfielders.  This explains why the Sox signed two players who were projected to be their 3rd baseman, but have limited range ... they'll both play infield and won't have to cover as much ground.  It make sense now that we know the Sox were going to an all GB specialist rotation.  Granted the two outfielders will have a lot of ground to cover, but Betts and Castillo are speedsters so the number of inside-the-park homers will be minimized.      

 

[Rasputin]

I don't like the Masterson or Miley deals on their own, but I love the trend.

I am reminded of an article someone mentioned here a while back to the effect that the A's were driving up on fly ball hitters because sometimes fly balls left the park.

Ground balls don't, of course.

What amused me most, though is that this is one of the strategies I used in a SIM league about 20 years ago.

I won that league.

 

[iayork]

And since the major change in strike zone calling we saw last year was the low end of the strike zone a combination of sinkerball pitchers and elite framing from Vazquez could make it very hard for hitters to get into good counts and force these guys to elevate their pitches.

I'm not sure that Porcello benefits as much as you'd think from the lower zone; most of his pitches are low in the "classic" zone, but not below it.  Miley probably does, though, since several of his pitches hover right below the old zone, but in a place where the 2014 zone will get him a strike. On these animations I've marked the "classic" strike zone in solid, and the 2014 zone as a dashed line:
 
Porcello's 4-seam fastball:

Spoiler

2-seam fastball:

Spoiler

Slider:

Spoiler

Curve:

Spoiler

Change:

Spoiler

Miley's 4-seam:

Spoiler

2-seam:

Spoiler

Slider, fitting right into the new zone:

Spoiler

His rare curve:

Spoiler

Change, which he only throws to RHB, but which takes advantage of the new zone:

Spoiler

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

If the Sox really want to commit to this plan, what about exploring a Bogaerts for Andrelton Simmons deal? Both players are young and both are under team control for a very long time to come. Simmons is arguably the best defensive player of his generation, but his bat took a serious step back last year after he signed a long term deal. Bogaerts is passable at short, but his bat has elite potential. I could see Atlanta being intrigued after giving up Heyward and shopping Upton.

 

[Sprowl]

I'm not sure that Porcello benefits as much as you'd think from the lower zone; most of his pitches are low in the "classic" zone, but not below it.  Miley probably does, though, since several of his pitches hover right below the old zone, but in a place where the 2014 zone will get him a strike. On these animations I've marked the "classic" strike zone in solid, and the 2014 zone as a dashed line:
 
Porcello's 4-seam fastball:

Spoiler

2-seam fastball:

Spoiler

Slider:

Spoiler

Curve:

Spoiler

Change:

Spoiler

Miley's 4-seam:

Spoiler

2-seam:

Spoiler

Slider, fitting right into the new zone:

Spoiler

His rare curve:

Spoiler

Change, which he only throws to RHB, but which takes advantage of the new zone:

Spoiler

Those visualizations are fookin brilliant, Porcello's bread-and-cutter 2-seamer especially so. The 4-seamer is an all-purpose, all-platoon strike pitch. The changeup is either low or outside to lefties, but not both.

 

[iayork]

Those visualizations are fookin brilliant, Porcello's bread-and-cutter 2-seamer especially so. The 4-seamer is an all-purpose, all-platoon strike pitch. The changeup is either low or outside to lefties, but not both.

Love the contrast between the 2- and 4-seamers.  They start off looking pretty much identical, but the 2-seamer makes a sharp turn and they end up on opposite sides of the plate. 
 
Here's the outcome of each (as before, size of the bubble reflects the percent of pitches (that are not balls) in a zone, and color reflects percent of pitches in a zone that get successfully hit.
 
4-seam

Spoiler

 
2-seam

Spoiler

 
The 2-seam works better against RHB than lefties, which isn't surprising from the animation, I think.  What's more surprising to me is how effective his 4-seam is, even when it's pretty much right down the center of the plate.  I presume that batters are waiting on the 2-seam and other moving pitches and the straight fastball just takes them by surprise. 

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Porcello managed OK when his infield included Prince, Peralta, and Miggy.  I think he will be able to handle playing in front of Bogaerts, Sandoval, Pedey, and Napoli.