Frickin Dyson Daniels only has to make 1 of 2 FT’s with 1.4 sec in regulation and the Pels cover the 3. Instead, he costs his team the game. Ouch.BOOM
I did play their 2H number so that made up for the bad loss. Cue Ice Cube!
Frickin Dyson Daniels only has to make 1 of 2 FT’s with 1.4 sec in regulation and the Pels cover the 3. Instead, he costs his team the game. Ouch.BOOM
Not sure why oddsmakers haven't posted anything for Sixers yet. Waiting to see how Maxey/Harris are priced. Figure Maxey's o/u figure is going to skyrocket now so my nice run may be over there. But if it's under 25, I may partake again. Durant got jacked up to a crazy 34.5, which feels like a Kyrie overcorrection to me.Lots of marginal plays tonight and questioning how much I want to get involved. For now the only play I’ve made is Over 227 Pacers/Heat……with a 67/33 split between full game and Over 116 1H. It’s possible I turn the 1H profit into a 2H middle is window is large enough (5-6 pts).
I see it at 225 now — loading up time ?Lots of marginal plays tonight and questioning how much I want to get involved. For now the only play I’ve made is Over 227 Pacers/Heat……with a 67/33 split between full game and Over 116 1H. It’s possible I turn the 1H profit into a 2H middle is window is large enough (5-6 pts).
Bows head in shame.I am taking:
IND/MIA OVER 225 (HRB Special)
Pistons +4 (Cavs on road after big intense matchup with C’s sans both Garland and Donovan)
Wiz -2.5 (Trainwreck Nets with new coach, winless on road, Wiz not been playing well and smell blood)
It’s better to lose by than by a half a point. Saves years off your lifespan.Bows head in shame.
Get on NUFC, the Black n White Army are on a mission this season.Every year the markets begin moving earlier and earlier in the morning. Jazz/Clips down to 221 already and Cavs up to 4.
Wait until tomorrow morning when the college board lights up for opening night! Take a closed league of 30 like the NBA with multi-year contracts and relatively minimal rotation turnover from year to year……now think of managing information and action for 358 teams with transfer protocols, high coaching/system turnover, etc along with each teams progression throughout the year?
I’ve learned that one of the most important skills for a sports bettor isn’t only “what you know” but in recognizing “what you don’t know.” For me, it’s the difference in my handicapping prior to clicking overnight lines and early morning numbers before the market moves (NBA)……and sitting in front of a computer screen waiting for the screen to light up and markets to move while catching stale numbers before my Pay Per Head sites can move them. Each are more stressful in their own ways….
GOOOOOAAAAALLLLLLL!!!!!!
….sorry, Arsenal hit the back of the net. F-Yeah! Where was I? Oh yeah, each are more stressful as the NBA requires me to do ALL the work while in college I don’t have to worry at all about the handicapping but in actually placing the wagers before numbers move. Each year this window gets smaller and smaller…..some sites can be minutes while others move within seconds.
Ok I’m done rambling.
I got Arsenal at +165 which I thought was laughable. My EPL process is similar to my UFC in that I do my own “limited” handicap to shade to a side however strongly. I have two EPL and a couple MMA guys that I follow…..if they are on the same side/total then I’ll play. My other two EPL picks that I didn’t play were Newcastle ML and Under in Aston Villa/MU. I do agree that NUFC gets no love whatsoever.Get on NUFC, the Black n White Army are on a mission this season.
NUFC shares similar qualities to the Sox pre-Henry/Warner. They suffered with terrible, cheap ownership for decades. Now they have the deep-pocket Middle East money being splashed in transfer windows with a shrewd manager (Eddie Howe) handling on-field play. Rabid fan base from a region (North England/South Scotland). They are worth keeping a casual eye on after the World Cup.I got Arsenal at +165 which I thought was laughable. My EPL process is similar to my UFC in that I do my own “limited” handicap to shade to a side however strongly. I have two EPL and a couple MMA guys that I follow…..if they are on the same side/total then I’ll play. My other two EPL picks that I didn’t play were Newcastle ML and Under in Aston Villa/MU. I do agree that NUFC gets no love whatsoever.
Parlayed CLE, TOR, and Jazz/Clips under for a little more than beer money. Let’s go!Football Sunday……don’t forget your NBA! 4 games and my opinion on each as I’m up early to start my day with Arsenal/Chelsea as two evenly priced futbol clubs have shown vastly different bodies of work recently…..but I digress (yes I play EPL too)!
* Cavs -3.
Like my “Follow team early on long trip and fade them on the back end of it” angle here. Cavs coming off big win in G1 @Detroit and play a still overvalued Laker team in an early west coast start.
* Raptors -1.5
Chicago has hopped on a plane following each of their last 6 games and now play a B2B home and home vs a real good Toronto team in a Ewing Theory spot without Siakam for first game of his groin injury.
* Wizards +10.5
The game I like the least of the four. Several factors have me lean Wiz though. NBA teams coming off 40-pt losses tend to rebound with energy and a sense of urgency, teams coming off 30-pt wins can sometimes do the opposite, and I don’t grade out the Grizz as high as the market. My pause is that while I’ve done well fading Memphis on the road they have taken care of business at home against the dregs.
* Under 223 Jazz/Clippers
My strongest out of the three I’ll be playing today (won’t be on Wiz). Disclaimer: I got a bunch at the 224.5 overnight but anything above 220 is good as I expect this to be bet down. As I discussed a couple games ago when Utah played Dallas, their totals are sometimes way off and tonight is one of these nights. Their numbers are skewed by playing fast-paced opponents who they are more than willing to run with and a couple OT games for those looking at raw numbers. The Mavs game landed 20 pts below the total and tonight may be similar as the Clips have reached 223 in only one of their nine games while being last in Offensice Efficiency. My adjustments put this at 216.
GL I’m riding with you! What number did you get on the total? I see it down to 220.5 now.Parlayed CLE, TOR, and Jazz/Clips under for a little more than beer money. Let’s go!
223. Down to 220.5 on DK now. CLE up to -4 and TOR up to -2 as well.GL I’m riding with you! What number did you get on the total? I see it down to 220.5 now.
Real reason I popped back in has to do with tomorrow CBB and the season opener at 2pm which is actually 11am where Pacific and Stanford will play. You know my early start time angle……Total has gone from 140 to 138 this morning on low volume/limits. It will be interesting to see what this does in the morning but unless this is an error I’m seeing, CRIS opened this at 161 earlier in the week for it’s small group of pro market makers. I’m waiting on a response from friend for confirmation. Thought you’d all find this interesting.
The first quarter had me questioning my bet but the scoring ground to a halt in the second half so it was all good. I’m assuming HRB was betting unders along the way?HRB, I was surprised that you didn’t call out the Cavs/LAL under given it’s an early west coast start. Any particular reason you don’t see this as a good spot today?
I considered it but the Lakers have been so volatile scoring early in games this season and the Cavs have been fast starters. My idea was to evaluate for in-game which would have worked perfectly………except (see post above), I fell asleep.HRB, I was surprised that you didn’t call out the Cavs/LAL under given it’s an early west coast start. Any particular reason you don’t see this as a good spot today?
Helpful. Thank you as always for the insight! These threads are great.I considered it but the Lakers have been so volatile scoring early in games this season and the Cavs have been fast starters. My idea was to evaluate for in-game which would have worked perfectly………except (see post above), I fell asleep.
The reason I didn’t mention anything is simply bc I had several other thoughts in each game and could only write so much. I said this last year (or year before) but you can pretty much auto-play these on your own at this point they run so strong. I have trouble acting in this manner but sometimes with this I do……and really probably should have today as JERIHOF noted.
Nothing wrong with that. Whenever you have guys like Kelce and Henry taking money you always find great value in these games. I hit on Dawson Knox last week……he was good to me a couple times last year for these too.Love first TD degen plays. I’ve got Hardman at +1800 because I’m a real sicko.
YOU BASTAHD!!!! Nice!!!Love first TD degen plays. I’ve got Hardman at +1800 because I’m a real sicko.
This was one of those games where we are trailing at the half, in this case by a significant margin, but you know that it is only due to a ridiculous shot making pct and you want to keep adding to the inflated Under knowing that regression is coming……but you are already way overleveraged that you add a little more. 2H Total was 111.5 and never moved.93 point 2nd Half (43 point 4th Quarter). Game total under cashes with ease.
Nice sweep today on the NBA picks.
Total went from 138.5 to 137 then smashed to 134. So many colors flashing it is hard to distinguish what it coming from group, individuals and/or head fakes that may show later. I think there’s like 170 CBB games today.Real reason I popped back in has to do with tomorrow CBB and the season opener at 2pm which is actually 11am where Pacific and Stanford will play. You know my early start time angle……Total has gone from 140 to 138 this morning on low volume/limits. It will be interesting to see what this does in the morning but unless this is an error I’m seeing, CRIS opened this at 161 earlier in the week for it’s small group of pro market makers. I’m waiting on a response from friend for confirmation. Thought you’d all find this interesting.
Well that was an easy cash…….until teams combined for 20 pts in the final 1:57. Read was spot on, file the result under negative variance.Looking at playing 2H Under in Cavs/Clippers. Both teams shooting lights out early but have settled into a half court defensive game since the starters returned mid-2Q. I expect this to continue in the 2H and will play Under anything above 105.
Edit: Seeing 2H total at 104 which is tight. I’m playing it a little but certainly not as aggressively if I had gotten a 106-107.
Stay safe HRB!Don’t feel like writing stuff up as I prepare to be visited by Tripical Storm/Hurricane Nicole later tonight as I’m 4 miles from the coast. Played…..
Hawks -3.5
Wolves +1
Nets -3 (probably best)
Number is long gone but played Ballarmine overnight +12 over a rebuilding Louisville team who was only laying 12 bc name on their jersey reads “Louisville.” It’s down to 9 now and still don’t hate it. I’ll cap a handful of teams who stick out on page and this UL is one who went 1-1 vs two D-2 schools in exhibitions and even the win was dicey.
Thanks I don’t think it’s going to be too bad (hopefully not “famous last words”).Stay safe HRB!
The problem with the way RAS releases their props is that Prop Builder moves the number and the price immediately.Derrick White over 14.5 points+rebounds+assists. -120 is the best price on bet365 of the books in my state, -125 DK. Acceptable through -140 depending on yours.
Cameron Payne under 8.5 dimes, good through -145. -130 at pointsbet is what I'm seeing best for me.