Should the Red Sox trade Lester?
- Thread starter MakMan44
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I voted "If they get blown away" with the assumption that this is essentially equivalent to a "no."
If he hits FA they aren't going to sign him. NY, LA, Chicago, or someone will make him an offer that the Sox won't match. So if he's gone they may as well try to get more than a comp pick for him.
I voted yes, but I'd love to see Lester stay in Boston. I think if he gets to free agency, he's going to get overpaid by some team, so I'd prefer to see the Sox put their best offer on the table and if it wraps Lester up, great. If not, time to maximize his return.
Right, absolutely, and if they get that kind of offer they should take it, which is why I voted that way. I just don't think it's going to happen. Not for a two-month rental.MakMan44 said:
My sense is that they won't get much more than the value of a 1st round supplemental pick. I think there is value in having the monopoly to negotiate until the end of the season. If we trade him he's gone. If he hits FA he's probably gone, If we keep him there still remains the possibility that he mulls over a vastly improved Sox offer (its has to be a close to his FA value), and decides to stay.
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"went with blown-away" but that's a slim/none chance
I'd put Detroit and Seattle on the list too.
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"went with blown-away" but that's a slim/none chance
Rudy Pemberton said:
Would the PR hit from trading him really be worse than the PR hit from letting him walk after offering him 4/70?
Yes.glennhoffmania said:
SoSH might be angry, but casual fans aren't going to hold a grudge against the FO for refusing to commit $150mm or more to a player, so long as they make a few other acquisitions and enter Spring Training with a payroll close to the CBT threshold.
Trading Lester now would absolutely tank NESN ratings and ticket sales for the last two months of the season, while creating negative PR that the FO could do little to counter until November.
The Sox could probably get more value from a Lester rental than the comp pick, but unless they get offered something close to what the A's sent the Cubs (and I think there's little chance of that), this is a rare case where the FO will let non-baseball considerations drive the decision.
Or maybe the Oakland A's. I can live with that.rembrat said:
I think he'd get a very good return. Trade him.
I voted no. An organization like the Red Sox should not be trading away their best established pitcher for any reason.
Agreed.Rudy Pemberton said:
If Lester is lost to FA, I think the Sox PR machine will crank out the narrative "we tried, and gave it our best shot". But the counter-narrative of them blowing it, is the one that will get the headlines even if its not the Globe's.
1. It depends whether they can get their playoff odds meaningfully out of the single digits by the deadline. If go on a run and improve them to, say, 15%, I'd keep him.
2. If not, I think you move him if you get substantial value in return. That's a smell test of sorts: I'd LOVE to have this guy in my system vs he's a good prospect.
PR fits into NONE of these calculations. I don't want any of the typical "he left us, we didn't leave him" crap. Cold businesslike decision, which I'm pretty sure camp Lester would understand. Without the usual spin and talking points.
2. If not, I think you move him if you get substantial value in return. That's a smell test of sorts: I'd LOVE to have this guy in my system vs he's a good prospect.
PR fits into NONE of these calculations. I don't want any of the typical "he left us, we didn't leave him" crap. Cold businesslike decision, which I'm pretty sure camp Lester would understand. Without the usual spin and talking points.
In terms of leverage, don't you need the deal (e.g., with the Phillies) for the replacement in place before sending Lester out of town? An Epstein-ian moving of parts will be required.
Edit: Unless they plan to sign a leftover FA to a Victorino-style contract
Edit: Unless they plan to sign a leftover FA to a Victorino-style contract
The O's have a bitch of a 10-game West coast road trip starting tonight. If the Sox can play good ball they should be able to tighten this race up in the next 10 days.
dcmissle said:
This was going to be my next point. Why should they care about that?
As for the PR hit, they could spin either scenario. If he walks they say they tried but they couldn't meet his excessive demands. If they trade him they say they made a lucrative offer in July to try to keep him a Sox for the rest of his career but he was determined to test FA, so they traded him to try to replace his production going forward.
But I'm with DC. Who gives a shit? Make the best decision for baseball reasons only.
I voted yes, PR be damned, but wanted to add some details and caveats.
1) I am not buying October baseball for the 2014 Red Sox. They have not done anything to lead me to believe they are capable of winning 42/67 to get into the 85-win range that may put them in playoff contention. So for that reason, I'd be looking to sell veteran pieces to make the team better in 2015 and give the youth movement the reins in 2014.
2) With regards to Lester, I have to imagine the Sox FO has a good idea of what Lester is looking for in a contract extension and they have to know what their limits are for Lester. So if Lester's demands likely extend beyond what the Sox are willing to offer they have to shop him. If a trade partner emerges that is willing to take on Lester as a rental I'd be willing to listen. Despite the new CBA, I'd assume that the centerpiece of the return would have to be at least as good as what one could reasonably expect from a supplemental 2015 draft pick. Moreover, the centerpiece in the trade would already be a more advanced player capable of helping the team in the near future (2015), rather than 3 years down the road (best case scenario).
3) What I'd look for in a trade partner is a team willing to center a trade around a top 5 prospect, preferably one that has power and can play a corner OF or IF position. I'd also look for at least one lottery ticket pitcher. Looking at the standings with my limited knowledge of other team's farm systems, I'm not sure there is a trade partner that would benefit the Sox. Perhaps someone with a better idea of other team's farm systems could provide more insight into potential trade partners.
1) I am not buying October baseball for the 2014 Red Sox. They have not done anything to lead me to believe they are capable of winning 42/67 to get into the 85-win range that may put them in playoff contention. So for that reason, I'd be looking to sell veteran pieces to make the team better in 2015 and give the youth movement the reins in 2014.
2) With regards to Lester, I have to imagine the Sox FO has a good idea of what Lester is looking for in a contract extension and they have to know what their limits are for Lester. So if Lester's demands likely extend beyond what the Sox are willing to offer they have to shop him. If a trade partner emerges that is willing to take on Lester as a rental I'd be willing to listen. Despite the new CBA, I'd assume that the centerpiece of the return would have to be at least as good as what one could reasonably expect from a supplemental 2015 draft pick. Moreover, the centerpiece in the trade would already be a more advanced player capable of helping the team in the near future (2015), rather than 3 years down the road (best case scenario).
3) What I'd look for in a trade partner is a team willing to center a trade around a top 5 prospect, preferably one that has power and can play a corner OF or IF position. I'd also look for at least one lottery ticket pitcher. Looking at the standings with my limited knowledge of other team's farm systems, I'm not sure there is a trade partner that would benefit the Sox. Perhaps someone with a better idea of other team's farm systems could provide more insight into potential trade partners.
I think they trade him. Lester's present value, even for what little is left in the season is likely worth more to the Sox in return than a compensatory pick. Lester is a horse, pitching the best baseball in his life and has a track record of success in the playoffs. A contending team who acquires Lester significantly increases their odds at winning the World Series.
The issue with the pick is that whoever that is likely won't reach the big leagues until 2018 at the earliest. The Sox given their resources an young players should be looking to improve in 2015 and seriously compete by 2016. Plus more major league ready prospects increases their chances of obtaining Stanton.
Lester would be foolish to sign a deal at this point. The benefit he gets in signing a deal in spring training is a year of security against injury. Right now he is about 12 starts away from being a free agent. Accepting the Sox offer during the exclusive period would be foolish because he'll never get lower than that amount. The Red Sox haven't shown any willingness to be the highest bidder in the Lester sweepstakes.
The issue with the pick is that whoever that is likely won't reach the big leagues until 2018 at the earliest. The Sox given their resources an young players should be looking to improve in 2015 and seriously compete by 2016. Plus more major league ready prospects increases their chances of obtaining Stanton.
Lester would be foolish to sign a deal at this point. The benefit he gets in signing a deal in spring training is a year of security against injury. Right now he is about 12 starts away from being a free agent. Accepting the Sox offer during the exclusive period would be foolish because he'll never get lower than that amount. The Red Sox haven't shown any willingness to be the highest bidder in the Lester sweepstakes.
I picked the blown away option, but it seems "blown away" is a pretty subjective judgment.
I think the Sox's scouting and player development is a better bet to turn a compensation round pick into valuable talent than getting an average prospect in another team's 5 - 10 range. Obviously this will vary with the exact players offered, hence the caveat.
I think the Sox's scouting and player development is a better bet to turn a compensation round pick into valuable talent than getting an average prospect in another team's 5 - 10 range. Obviously this will vary with the exact players offered, hence the caveat.
Trautwein's Degree said:
Foolish only if he's shooting for the most money he can get. His comments during the spring suggest that he was focused on getting enough money, and that other variables were going to be important in the decision. They may not want to, but there's reason to still believe that the Sox only need to pony up enough.
I say "only if they're blown away," which, as others noted, is probably the same as "no" given the offers that are likely to come in for him.
The problem with getting "5-10" type prospects is that the Sox have those in plenty. You can always use more and getting assets is fine. Maybe they could use another Middlebrooks type and hope he works out better (someone who profiles with a bit more power than their current crop, I mean). But, if you aren't getting someone who we are talking ceiling as the reason they are a prospect instead of floor, it's probably not worth it compared to the pick.
I find the blown away to be a bit subjective. To me blown away is the Nationals offer Rendon and an A ball lottery ticket.
I find the blown away to be a bit subjective. To me blown away is the Nationals offer Rendon and an A ball lottery ticket.
Given the poll options, I chose "if they are blown away." It's so context dependent, though. If they know they aren't bringing him back and just aren't saying it, you take what you can get on trade market. If they feel like it won't get done in a week, but very likely will get done before the World Series is over, they should hang on to him and keep working toward that end. Obviously if there's a Russell like return out there for him, you take it, but I'm guessing there isn't, and the reality of this situation is probably somewhere between the two paths I just mentioned, so it's all really murky water that leaves me feeling very unsure.
The idea scenario is they get him extended in the next few days and can then focus on what to do with the veterans who aren't part of the long term plan for the franchise. Maybe the certainty of having a direction to move in is worth something, though, and if you think the chances of extending Lester are low enough, you deal him and start moving decisively toward 2015 and beyond.
The idea scenario is they get him extended in the next few days and can then focus on what to do with the veterans who aren't part of the long term plan for the franchise. Maybe the certainty of having a direction to move in is worth something, though, and if you think the chances of extending Lester are low enough, you deal him and start moving decisively toward 2015 and beyond.
If Lester's contract demands are beyond Boston's tolerance threshold for $ or years, then yes they should explore trades.
The matter of what that amount and length should be are a separate matter. Boston has set limits it seems and need to work within those.
At this time I fully expect something to be done. Not trading him would reinforce that belief. I would be very disappointed if he walks in free agency not just because I think he is a good and valuable piece going forward, but also because they did not get more in return via trade ahead of that.
With the information I have at hand -- not much -- no, I would not trade him. I believe an extension remains the likely outcome. It's just a hunch, but I am thinking the front office has more info on the matter than I do.
The matter of what that amount and length should be are a separate matter. Boston has set limits it seems and need to work within those.
At this time I fully expect something to be done. Not trading him would reinforce that belief. I would be very disappointed if he walks in free agency not just because I think he is a good and valuable piece going forward, but also because they did not get more in return via trade ahead of that.
With the information I have at hand -- not much -- no, I would not trade him. I believe an extension remains the likely outcome. It's just a hunch, but I am thinking the front office has more info on the matter than I do.
If the Pedroia signing is the model, the Lester contract will be finalized in the next handful of days. OTOH, using the Pedroia contract as the model means Lester would have been signed in July 2013.
Gammons on WFAN yesterday threw out Corey Seager and Joc Pederson from the Dodgers for Price. That would be a "blown away" for Lester right?
To people who say make a cold, hard business decision, to get something better than a compensation pick and then move on, would you trade John Lester straight up for Allen Craig if that was the best offer on the table? How about Lester and Nava for Matt Kemp?
It's worth reiterating here that any team acquiring Lester in a trade will NOT get a compensatory pick in the 2015 draft if he is lost to free agency at the end of the season. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/poll-top-prospects-for-rental-players.html
With this in mind, I agree with Savin and others who say that the odds of being blown away with a trade proposal are very remote.
With this in mind, I agree with Savin and others who say that the odds of being blown away with a trade proposal are very remote.
You would need money coming back to make either of those options better than the comp pick, and that would only make the PR worse.Plympton91 said:
I disagree with this. A pitcher like Lester can shift the power this year in a very close division. A team in GFIN mode might see this and pay for it.Bone Chips said:
Atlanta? Milwaukee? Pittsburgh? LAD? LAA? Baltimore? Toronto?
If Stanton is truly the target this offseason or next, I'd go with trading Lester if it meant getting 2-3 top tier prospects. Stockpile now, have the best to offer for Stanton and still have quality left in the farm.
I picked blown away, but my threshold for that is pretty high for Lester. With most players, I think the odds of him resigning at this point are pretty low. That still seems the most likely scenario, if for no other reason than that is how it most often shakes out if a team and player get to this point. And if the team knows it is not going to ever go near the years and dollars that it will realistically take, that's a reason to explore the trade market. But it seems Lester may have an earnest desire to remain in Boston and not let the process deter him from that. I can see him testing the market but deciding to remain in Boston, if the Red Sox offer is "close enough" in his mind. I know that is rare, but Varitek showed it can sometimes happen. If the team trades him this month, it will "break the spell" of Lester always being part of the Red Sox organization. If there is any chance to sign him as things stand, I think they cannot trade him. I also think the perceived low-ball offer in March and then trading him in July, a year after winning the World Series, is a bridge too far on the PR side.
Which contenders have systems where you will be blown away?
The only people that anything worth giving up Lester for is Baltimore, LA, and the Pirates. The rest of contenders are bereft of organizational talent.
The only people that anything worth giving up Lester for is Baltimore, LA, and the Pirates. The rest of contenders are bereft of organizational talent.
Trade him.
Take the prospects we get for him plus what we have already stockpiled and make a deal for Stanton.
Offer Lester a contract during his FA and hope he signs or drive up the price for the NYY. If he signs with us, it's just money plus we netted prospects who helped us acquire Stanton. If he signs with NYY, we hope for a Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineida, Pavano - type scenario.
Take the prospects we get for him plus what we have already stockpiled and make a deal for Stanton.
Offer Lester a contract during his FA and hope he signs or drive up the price for the NYY. If he signs with us, it's just money plus we netted prospects who helped us acquire Stanton. If he signs with NYY, we hope for a Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineida, Pavano - type scenario.
Bone Chips said:
In my mind, that makes Lester most valuable to the Red Sox. For a 2 month rental, I don't see how they would get the compensation that they would desire in return.
As it stands, Boston is looking at the good possibility of a top 10 draft pick for next year's draft. If they give a QO to Lester after the season and he declines, we're looking at stockpiling draft picks a la Theo. Lester being a southpaw starter will probably get the contract he desires in free agency however, one can't help but think that the Drew/Morales scenarios aren't in the back of his mind should he decline a QO. I doubt he really needs to worry about that but still.......
I'm all for keeping him as long as possible if it means getting him signed somehow someway.
Andrew said:
Well if it is a foregone conclusion that he isn't signing here, then I think the Sox are more likely to get something better back in a trade than via a pick. Reasonable minds can differ. But trading him for "anything" is hyperbole.
Plympton91 said:
Let's see. We think Lester will cost, say, $160M over the next 7 years, but we don't want to pay that. So instead we trade him for a guy who will cost us about $110M over the next 5 years--the major difference being that Lester is still a very, very good pitcher, while Kemp is increasingly an ordinary outfielder. And on top of that, we're going to throw in a serviceable platoon OF who's team-controlled for three more years.
Why on earth would we do this?
Kemp is the new Vernon Wells. Let somebody else solve the Dodgers' problem for them.
Now if the deal was Pederson for Lester, that's another story. But that's the kind of deal that isn't gonna happen.
At this point, you may as well deal him. I think the FO are going to continue to make low ball offers. I blame Henry for this mess and as much as Lester may say he's open to talking about a new agreement, I think he is pissed and the FO can't fix this at this point. Feels like they're burning a bridge with these negotiations.
That is correct.P said:
It always is useful to view this from the player's perspective too, and I look at the situation as follows.
When he engaged the Sox on the contract in Feb, I'm sure Lester had a range of numbers.
On the low side was a walk-away number. Sox come with that, you don't even counter. Clearly 4 for 70 fell in that neighborhood.
Then there is a number at which Lester would have settled after some bargaining. He would not have been thrilled by it, but it's fair and large, and everything else being good, Lester would have settled on it at the time. Call it the hometown discount number.
Then there is the number at the top his range at which he would have been thrilled. The highest realistic number he could have achieved. Maybe you bargain a little bit, but you take this number even if the RS refuse to offer a penny more. You do not jeopardize it. Call this the blown away number.
Well after tilting the bargaining table with 4 months of sweat, Lester probably would take the blown away number now, but not less.
The keys are what that number is and whether the RS will hit it. We don't know.
Hometown discount, you ask? What he may be giving away in an inflationary FA market this winter. That's your hometown discount.
The poll could have a second question: Do you think they are able/willing to sign him?
I would guess that most people voting to trade or are willing to trade would answer No to the above. That is the case for me.
If it's between him walking and getting a pick vs trading for a nice return, then I choose the latter. This assumes that the trade return > draft pick as well.
I would guess that most people voting to trade or are willing to trade would answer No to the above. That is the case for me.
If it's between him walking and getting a pick vs trading for a nice return, then I choose the latter. This assumes that the trade return > draft pick as well.
I wasn't advocating for those trades per se, I was just wondering what the "trade him for anything" crowd was thinking. Both Kemp and Craig are far more likely to help the Red Sox going forward than a compensation pick or even any reasonably expected prospect return.Savin Hillbilly said:
Fake Edit: Seems like Kemp has been terrible again lately; I hadn't checked since I saw his June split that showed a 900 OPS. So, scratch him. But the point is, if you want to trade Lester "for anything" then getting a player like Allen Craig should qualify under that definition.
I never thought we'd get Craig for Peavy, but again, that's not the issue. The issue is, what does "trade him for anything" really mean?DrewDawg said:
You will not find a good rationale from the group you are questioning because there is no such group.
It was a good troll though and will probably serve to tangent the thread in the direction you want. I fully expect someone to bite.
It was a good troll though and will probably serve to tangent the thread in the direction you want. I fully expect someone to bite.
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