M
MentalDisabldLst
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There's discussion in the Ellsbury thread about Shin-Soo Choo as a potential replacement. Given how good he is, he deserves his own thread and consideration.
Choo (Wiki bio) is a current FA and former player for SEA (cups of coffee), CLE (5-year starter at RF) and CIN (1-year starter at CF). He became a full-time starter for CLE in 2008 at age 25, and is now 31. All "career" stats below will be for his full-time starter period, 2008-2013. So, here's how I view his candidacy for our roster:
Assets
1. He is among the very best players in baseball at getting on base. From 2008-2013, in total, he has ranked #9 in total offensive value, right in between Andrew McCutchen and Adrian Gonzalez. His OBP in that time averaged .392, with a high of .423 in 2013, and his career slash stats as a starter being .290 / .392 / .469 / .861 (that's an OPS+ of 137). In 2013 his plate discipline ranked #6 in MLB, with a miniscule O-Swing of 22.1%, although his contact rate (~80%) is a bit low for someone of his strike zone judgment and his Swinging Strike rate (7.8%) is a bit higher than the other leaders in plate discipline. The dude can rake, and always has.
2. Some speed and good instincts on the bases. He has averaged around 20 SB / year since becoming a starter, with a middling 73% success rate. He has averaged +6.6 runs/year for his baserunning, and is reputed to have good instincts. Although he is not without his mistakes, he also has plenty of plus plays as well.
3. Relatively little wear-and-tear and injury risk. He's been playing baseball for a while, and was the MVP of the junior world championship-winning South Korea team (as a pitcher!). However, he only has about 6 years of full-time starting experience in the league. He was injured for about 1/3 of the 2011 season: 7 weeks after surgery for a broken thumb, and 2 weeks later that year for a strained left oblique, hurt during a check-swing. Other than that, he's been an every-day player.
4. A laser, rocket arm. He is a converted pitcher from his time in the Korean leagues, and claims he can still hit 95. In 2011, an AL scout claimed he had the best arm in the league, better than Ichiro, and apparently ranking between 6.5 and a full 8 on the Scout ratings, among the top 7 players in MLB. This past year, BleacherReport polled 305 MLB players about OF arms, and Choo ranked #1, ahead of Francoeur, Puig, Ichiro, etc.
Liabilities
1. His defense stinks. No, that's too kind: He takes Magellan-like routes to balls, and lacks a quick first step (which, at 5'11" and 205 lbs, isn't that surprising). From 2009-2012 as a RF, his Defensive rating on Fangraphs was -33.6 runs over those 4 years, 17th out of 19 qualified RFs, and 14th out of 19 in UZR/150 at -3.4. When Cincinnati had the brilliant idea to move him to CF this past year, he was last by a mile in both Defensive rating (-14.6) and UZR/150 (-17.0), out of 19 qualifiers. Boston may have a unique mitigant for this in the form of LF, defense for which values arm strength more highly than most and range less highly than any other LF.
2. He has doubles power, but is not a highlight-reel slugger. His ISO-P is at .176 for his career. For all of his BABIP prowess (.350 for his career), he has averaged 37 doubles, 4 triples and 20 HRs while batting (usually) leadoff for CIN and CLE.
3. There are many teams rumored to be in on him, and he is represented by, who else, Scott Boras. In contention are reportedly the Rangers, Detroit, Seattle (caveat: Rosenthal), and of course the Reds, for whom he played last year. Jon Heyman said he was the #1 priority for the Yankees, but I think at this point we can say he was clueless. Boras is reportedly looking for a $20M AAV deal.
4. The Reds made him a QO, so signing him costs us our first-rounder. Of course, not many #30 picks in the draft end up better than Choo is right now. Independent of everything else, I really enjoy all the little reminders that we f'ing won the world series last year. Final pick in each round of the draft? Darn, that's just too bad.
5. He had a DUI in May 2011. Arrest. Pleaded no-contest, paid a fine, had license suspended for that year. No other incidents that I can uncover.
My Assessment
Choo is by far the best hitter we can sign, and is a good bet to be Adrian Gonzalez-like at the plate. His similarities to Manny are numerous (bad range but great arm in the OF, great plate discipline, possible move to DH in a few years, and a skillset that projects well for his 30s), minus the MVP-level HR power.
I think he may well be more worth $20M/year than Ellsbury. Even if you need to then get more CF defense, the offensive upgrade from Gomes/Nava to Choo in the lineup is enormous, and the upgrade from Ellsbury to Choo would still be very substantial.
Choo (Wiki bio) is a current FA and former player for SEA (cups of coffee), CLE (5-year starter at RF) and CIN (1-year starter at CF). He became a full-time starter for CLE in 2008 at age 25, and is now 31. All "career" stats below will be for his full-time starter period, 2008-2013. So, here's how I view his candidacy for our roster:
Assets
1. He is among the very best players in baseball at getting on base. From 2008-2013, in total, he has ranked #9 in total offensive value, right in between Andrew McCutchen and Adrian Gonzalez. His OBP in that time averaged .392, with a high of .423 in 2013, and his career slash stats as a starter being .290 / .392 / .469 / .861 (that's an OPS+ of 137). In 2013 his plate discipline ranked #6 in MLB, with a miniscule O-Swing of 22.1%, although his contact rate (~80%) is a bit low for someone of his strike zone judgment and his Swinging Strike rate (7.8%) is a bit higher than the other leaders in plate discipline. The dude can rake, and always has.
2. Some speed and good instincts on the bases. He has averaged around 20 SB / year since becoming a starter, with a middling 73% success rate. He has averaged +6.6 runs/year for his baserunning, and is reputed to have good instincts. Although he is not without his mistakes, he also has plenty of plus plays as well.
3. Relatively little wear-and-tear and injury risk. He's been playing baseball for a while, and was the MVP of the junior world championship-winning South Korea team (as a pitcher!). However, he only has about 6 years of full-time starting experience in the league. He was injured for about 1/3 of the 2011 season: 7 weeks after surgery for a broken thumb, and 2 weeks later that year for a strained left oblique, hurt during a check-swing. Other than that, he's been an every-day player.
4. A laser, rocket arm. He is a converted pitcher from his time in the Korean leagues, and claims he can still hit 95. In 2011, an AL scout claimed he had the best arm in the league, better than Ichiro, and apparently ranking between 6.5 and a full 8 on the Scout ratings, among the top 7 players in MLB. This past year, BleacherReport polled 305 MLB players about OF arms, and Choo ranked #1, ahead of Francoeur, Puig, Ichiro, etc.
Liabilities
1. His defense stinks. No, that's too kind: He takes Magellan-like routes to balls, and lacks a quick first step (which, at 5'11" and 205 lbs, isn't that surprising). From 2009-2012 as a RF, his Defensive rating on Fangraphs was -33.6 runs over those 4 years, 17th out of 19 qualified RFs, and 14th out of 19 in UZR/150 at -3.4. When Cincinnati had the brilliant idea to move him to CF this past year, he was last by a mile in both Defensive rating (-14.6) and UZR/150 (-17.0), out of 19 qualifiers. Boston may have a unique mitigant for this in the form of LF, defense for which values arm strength more highly than most and range less highly than any other LF.
2. He has doubles power, but is not a highlight-reel slugger. His ISO-P is at .176 for his career. For all of his BABIP prowess (.350 for his career), he has averaged 37 doubles, 4 triples and 20 HRs while batting (usually) leadoff for CIN and CLE.
3. There are many teams rumored to be in on him, and he is represented by, who else, Scott Boras. In contention are reportedly the Rangers, Detroit, Seattle (caveat: Rosenthal), and of course the Reds, for whom he played last year. Jon Heyman said he was the #1 priority for the Yankees, but I think at this point we can say he was clueless. Boras is reportedly looking for a $20M AAV deal.
4. The Reds made him a QO, so signing him costs us our first-rounder. Of course, not many #30 picks in the draft end up better than Choo is right now. Independent of everything else, I really enjoy all the little reminders that we f'ing won the world series last year. Final pick in each round of the draft? Darn, that's just too bad.
5. He had a DUI in May 2011. Arrest. Pleaded no-contest, paid a fine, had license suspended for that year. No other incidents that I can uncover.
My Assessment
Choo is by far the best hitter we can sign, and is a good bet to be Adrian Gonzalez-like at the plate. His similarities to Manny are numerous (bad range but great arm in the OF, great plate discipline, possible move to DH in a few years, and a skillset that projects well for his 30s), minus the MVP-level HR power.
I think he may well be more worth $20M/year than Ellsbury. Even if you need to then get more CF defense, the offensive upgrade from Gomes/Nava to Choo in the lineup is enormous, and the upgrade from Ellsbury to Choo would still be very substantial.