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SB53: Pats vs. Rams Buildup

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by RedOctober3829, Jan 20, 2019.

  1. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    37,210
    Pats will be appearing in their 3rd straight Super Bowl which is mind-boggling to me.

    Bovada has the Pats -2 (-135 money line)

    Rams will be in blue throwbacks so figures the Pats will be in white for the 4th straight SB.

    Early Thoughts
    --The offensive line might have their toughest test in terms of a pass rush of the 3 games coming up. Aaron Donald is complete monster and Suh has come on recently. Dante Fowler has flashed. Michael Brockers is tough to stop. Getting the ball out quick is obviously key.

    --The Rams defense was #19 in defensive DVOA for the year. 9th against the pass and 28th against the run. Sounds like another game where the Pats could come out in 12 personnel and run the football.

    --I think James White and/or Rex Burkhead could have huge games. The Saints isolated Kamara on LB Cory Littleton and Kamara torched him.

    --Yes, they could come out and run the football just like they did the last 2 games. But do you go shotgun with 1 RB/1TE/3WR and spread the Rams out early and try to run hurry up? From past SB's, the pass rushers have gotten gassed quicker than in most games due to the extra adrenaline and constant throwing by Brady. That may be the way to slow them down.

    --Defensively, the receiving personnel to deal with are Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, and Tyler Higbee/Gerald Everett. Early thought is to put Gilmore on Woods and bracket Cooks.

    --CJ Anderson has been good lately, but figure that Gurley will be the go-to back as he should be. Will Danny Shelton be active for this game to help stuff the run?
     
    #1 RedOctober3829, Jan 20, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Super Bowl 53
     
  3. Ralphwiggum

    Ralphwiggum Member SoSH Member

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    I’m no footballl genius, but much like every time Saints are giving Hill snaps over Brees, I really hope I see a lot of Todd Gurley riding the stationary bike on the sideline while fat CJ Anderson is getting carries for the Rams.
     
  4. Hoya81

    Hoya81 Member SoSH Member

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    Rams will be wearing throwback uniforms
     
  5. mwonow

    mwonow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    WIN. 'Cause 6-3 is way better than 5-4. Also, there's a certain symmetry to "of the last 18 SBs, Pats have been in half and won one-third." Make it so!
     
  6. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    I think Gronk goes out with a bang. LAR were shredded by Jared Cook, Kittle X2, and Kelce this season. Gronk goes for 100+ and a TD wins MVP and rides off into the sunset.
     
  7. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I suspect Gurley is legit hurt. Guessing hamstring. It was probably tweaked a while back and has not gotten totally better. He may not be at 100%
     
  8. Bongorific

    Bongorific Member SoSH Member

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    Their offense has looked no bueno without him. Anderson isn’t a dual threat back. They look lost without that element.
     
  9. jodyreeddudley78

    jodyreeddudley78 Member SoSH Member

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    The Rams definitely look like a different offense with a >100% Gurley and no Kupp. The loss of Kupp kind of goes under the radar, but he was a big part of their offense. It’s a lazy comparison, but he was their Edelman in a lot of ways.

    I’m kind of worried about their D-line/secondary on the other side of the ball, I think both are better than their stats indicate, I think.
     
  10. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Why?
     
  11. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    Well played/
     
  12. Old Fart Tree

    Old Fart Tree the maven of meat Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  13. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This will be the 53rd Super Bowl/AFL-NFL Championship Game. The Patriots will have played in 21% of them
     
  14. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Their D-line definitely is a worry. Brady struggles with pressure up the middle and Aaron Donald is kind of good in the middle. Couple that with good pass rushers in Suh, Brockers, and Fowler and it’s a very stiff test.
     
  15. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Pats are -140 M/L.
     
  16. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    This is remarkable after being in only 2 of the first 35
     
    #16 Ale Xander, Jan 21, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  17. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Looks like more money coming in on Pats then.
     
  18. jodyreeddudley78

    jodyreeddudley78 Member SoSH Member

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    Mostly because Talib didn’t play in the majority of their games, and the stats (like DVOA) don’t reflect that. The talent is there on the D line, where sacks and pressures will come with a secondary that can provide decent coverage. I’m not saying they are world beaters in either section of the defense, but I don’t think that the season stats accurately reflect their current defense. But, conversely, their offense has definitely taken a step down.

    Edit: I’m trying to find actual proof instead of just guessing, but I’m pretty sure Talib was on Thomas today instead of Peters for the majority of snaps. It might have been Thomas’ worst game of the season. The ability to take away a player like that is impressive.
     
    #18 jodyreeddudley78, Jan 21, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  19. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    You said they were +135 moneyline and a 2-point favorite. Those two things cannot both be true.
     
  20. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, but two weeks is a long time to get ready to rip it (maybe literally) for one game.
     
  21. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    I did not see any evidence of meaningful injuries for the Pats? No?
     
  22. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    Talib owes us an early game ending injury.
     
  23. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Sorry meant -135
     
  24. BlackJack

    BlackJack Member SoSH Member

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    2 of the first 35.

    XX and XXXI.

    This year makes SB number 11 overall for the Pats.
     
  25. Just a bit outside

    Just a bit outside Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    On D put Gilmore on Woods, Jackson on Reynolds, speed guys on Cooks. I think the Pats match up well with Gurley being banged up.

    On O they need to keep Donald from dominating and getting pressure up the middle. If they can do that, not easy, they will score a lot of points.
     
  26. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    Getting Wise back (WEEI guys said he is sick) will be huge. 94 is a pretty boneheaded out there and Wise was a big upgrade the last few weeks. I would have to guess Shelton is back for this one, as well. He’ll be needed for this Rams running game.
     
  27. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Win this game and they pull ahead of the Steelers for most playoff wins. This in itself is enough to satisfy me.
     
  28. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    Wade Philips has been known to be an issue. It will be interesting to see what that match-up looks like this time. I'm only now getting over the AFC championship game vs. Denver.
     
  29. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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  30. wiffleballhero

    wiffleballhero Member SoSH Member

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    Tie them for SB wins is the bigger one to my mind.
     
  31. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    10,092
  32. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yes. Take all of it.
     
  33. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  34. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Holy shit
     
  35. Bleedred

    Bleedred Member SoSH Member

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    I'm dumb. What's the 53 significance?
     
  36. Blue Monkey

    Blue Monkey Member SoSH Member

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    Get this man a ring.
     
  37. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It's how many hours are left until the game
     
  38. LogansDad

    LogansDad Member SoSH Member

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    You mean we have to do this AGAIN?

    Fine. I guess I can be okay with that.
     
  39. Boston Brawler

    Boston Brawler Member SoSH Member

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    So which stars does TB get for his SB hype video? Larry? Orr? Pedro?
     
  40. Beomoose

    Beomoose Member SoSH Member

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    Still hoping for Malkovich
     
  41. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    espn crawl: first time ever that the same 2 metro areas meet in the SB after playing in the WS
     
  42. m0ckduck

    m0ckduck Member SoSH Member

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    I have the impression that LA’s pass rush— while elite at the top spots— is thin in terms of depth. Is this true? If so then they might indeed tire in the second half of SB as Falcons did and deep Eagles didn’t, as OP suggested.

    Regarding Talib: is it possible we’d see him on Gronk? Using him on Dorsett or Patterson seems like kind of a squander. (Not that he’s an elite CB any more— but I’d be happy for their best cover guy to be playing our wideouts while Edelman, Gronk, White etc feast on LBs and lesser CBs)
     
    #42 m0ckduck, Jan 21, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  43. Plantiers Wart

    Plantiers Wart Member SoSH Member

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    3,236
    Not true. Baltimore and NY in 1969.
     
  44. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    The 1968 World Series was between St. Louis and Detroit. So the ensuing Super Bowl did not feature the same two metro areas. So they’re correct with their specific claim (that it’s the first time two metro areas met in a Super Bowl after a World Series), but you’re right that it’s probably misleadingly narrow.
     
  45. CoffeeNerdness

    CoffeeNerdness Member SoSH Member

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    3,271
    One thought I had is that their two best non-Gurley weapons are both very familiar to the Pats. Cooks, obviously from being here last year, and Woods from his days in Buffalo.
     
  46. Toe Nash

    Toe Nash Member SoSH Member

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    Offensive line won't give away the cadence this time, I'd have to think (neutral field will help)...Miller was in the backfield at the snap on many plays in that game.

    But the "key to the game" is definitely the offensive line vs. Suh / Donald / etc. The line has been playing as well as I've ever seen it play, and they have a running game as well, so I'm optimistic.
     
  47. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    It's been a Helluva season so far and it ain't over yet. Think back to just over a year ago with the Super Bowl heartbreak of losing to The Eagles and the Belichick/Butler controversy. Look at the past off season that saw the departures of Butler, Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola and Brandon Cooks. The Pats looked in rough shape with a shortage of guys for Brady to throw the ball to when the season opened. Regular season losses to Detroit, Tennessee and Miami. This team had a lot of questions marks before and during the season including the failed Josh Gordon experiment, yet here we are on the eve of another New England Patriot Super Bowl. This team has been incredibly adaptable since Belichick took the reigns and now has a legit running attack led by an offensive line that we've been lacking for more than a couple of years. Fucking amazing!!!
     
  48. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Sure...but why are they better than their numbers say they are? That's what I was asking. To paraphrase Billy Beane/Brad Pitt in Moneyball: "If he's a good hitter why doesn't he hit good?"

    I'm not doubting it's very possible, just wondering why.
     
  49. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I was a dolt in one thread saying something like "Only 53 hours til kickoff!" and I was a day off--it was 77 hours. So, this being SoSH, folks ran with it, so there were random references to "53" in the threads.
     
  50. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    5,483
    That's a LIIIe.
     

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