Sandy Leon's very own thread

Sprowl · Jul 3, 2016

Rough Carrigan said:
Does anyone have any idea what, if anything, Sandy Leon is doing differently as a hitter this year?
I'll say the words now. Small sample size. I understand. It's only 35 at bats. But he was such a lousy hitter last year, he didn't work up a .457/.525/.686 slash line in any five at bats you could pick out, never mind 35. And that included 2 more hits today including his 5th double. He couldn't do this for even this long last year or before. Are there any stories out there trying to explain why suddenly, however briefly thus far, he seems like a good hitter?

He is getting the good hitter's results through luck (several bloops and groundballs with eyes help the .565 BABIP), patience (swinging at only 40% of pitches), lots of contact (mere 4% whiff rate, and 80% out-of-zone contact%), along with more than occasional solid contact (LD% 33 would be a neat trick while he keeps it up).

I expect eventual regression to Vazquez levels as the league discovers his weakest spots, but am fully prepared to ride the streak while it lasts. Clearly the Red Sox cannot expose Leon to waivers until those weaknesses are fully apparent, so I expect a slow recuperation by Hanigan, and possibly a relapse.

Sprowl · Jul 4, 2016

Split from the Vazquez vs Swihart thread -- we have too many catchers for one all-purpose catching thread.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 4, 2016

Relapse for Hanigan, sure, or perhaps Vazquez needs some time off or back at AAA to work on things.

Cesar Crespo · Jul 4, 2016

He did have 115 at bats in AAA this year and put up a .243/.315/.339 line. So I'm guessing it is purely SSS.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 4, 2016

Or let Ortiz retire now and make him the DH!

PaulinMyrBch · Jul 4, 2016

Makes sense today. This would have been my longshot prediction going into the season. By a mile.

Curt S Loew · Jul 4, 2016

Vaz optioned per Farrell on NESN.

DeadlySplitter · Jul 4, 2016

epic hot streak, but likely all it is. but milk it for all it's worth right now, with Holt back the offense has looked its best since May

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 4, 2016

PaulinMyrBch said:
Makes sense today. This would have been my longshot prediction going into the season. By a mile.

Color me not surprised.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 4, 2016

Rough Carrigan said:
Yeah, but every so often there's a Jose Bautista story where a guy who never did anything meets the right hitting coach who tells him to start his leg kick earlier (as Dwayne Murphy told Bautista) or do something else that suddenly makes him more effective. I'm still very curious if there's something that Chili Davis has seen and corrected that somehow Leon's coaches never saw before.

A Sosher wrote about this:

"I’ve been working a lot all my career to feel like this," he said. Literally, what has made such impact possible for Leon is an adjustment to his stance at the plate. As he has throughout his career, Leon went back to his native Venezuela over the winter to keep playing, keep getting at-bats. His focus in Venezuela and then again in spring training was on standing taller at the plate. He previously had shifted from a crouch to an upright position as the pitcher delivered the ball, a movement that made it more difficult to pick up the ball. "His first move was to come up, so it was a lot of movement with his head," Red Sox assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez said. "He wasn’t seeing the ball good, and he was running away from the ball. Now he’s tall, and he’s going at the ball. He’s seeing the ball real clear."

E5 Yaz · Jul 4, 2016

39 hits, including 5 doubles, in 235 plate appearances before this season

20 hits, including 8 doubles, in 45 plate appearances this season

Boggs26 · Jul 4, 2016

E5 Yaz said:
39 hits, including 5 doubles, in 235 plate appearances before this season

20 hits, including 8 doubles, in 45 plate appearances this season

Where's the EV style analysis of how unlikely this is to occur randomly while pointing out that his new floor is Ivan Rodriguez and his ceiling is Yadier Molina/Babe Ruth?

YTF · Jul 4, 2016

Curt S Loew said:
Vaz optioned per Farrell on NESN.

Wright pitches on Wednesday. Leon has to take over as his caddy doesn't he?

AB in DC · Jul 4, 2016

PaulinMyrBch said:
Makes sense today. This would have been my longshot prediction going into the season. By a mile.

On a similar vein, a lot of people predicted that Hanigan would be dumped at the trade deadline because of the development of one of the team's young catchers. Which is very likely to happen, though not in the way any of us imagined.

PaulinMyrBch · Jul 4, 2016

AB in DC said:
On a similar vein, a lot of people predicted that Hanigan would be dumped at the trade deadline because of the development of one of the team's young catchers. Which is very likely to happen, though not in the way any of us imagined.

Script seems obvious. Trade Hannigan, watch him go 250/350/450 for someone. CVZ hovers at Mendoza line, Leon regresses to Leon, and Blake sprains the other ankle. The only way they'll be any good is if we have a logjam and decisions.

Stan Papi Was Framed · Jul 4, 2016

Rough Carrigan said:
Thanks. That's exactly what I meant. So . . he was sort of trying to explode into the incoming pitch by rising out of a crouch but in the course of doing so was messing up his ability to track the ball by having too much head movement. That, at least makes sense and also fits with his not swinging at so many shit pitches either. I wish him the best of luck because stories like that of Joey Bats are very appealing. If the path of his career can become even a pale imitation of Bautista's, not becoming one of the league's top sluggers but just a good mlb bat, that would be great.

if he can continue to provide value defensively, he doesn't even have to be that good a mlb bat to be valuable--even managing a .700 OPS or thereabouts would be well worth it.

In the meantime, ride this hot streak or whatever it is as long as possible...

Al Zarilla · Jul 4, 2016

Stan Papi Was Framed said:
if he can continue to provide value defensively, he doesn't even have to be that good a mlb bat to be valuable--even managing a .700 OPS or thereabouts would be well worth it.

In the meantime, ride this hot streak or whatever it is as long as possible...

I had no idea how old Leon is...just 27, so he can have a nice career in front of him if he can hit reasonably well. He seems to be enjoying himself, so, do a bunch of that for Boston.

YTF · Jul 5, 2016

Another thing that hasn't been specifically mentioned here is that it seems Leon is throwing someone out on the base paths nearly every game. SSS, but right now he's providing a better bat than we hope for out of Swihart and better defense than we expected from Vasquez.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 5, 2016

YTF said:
Wright pitches on Wednesday. Leon has to take over as his caddy doesn't he?

Has he caught him yet? Vazquez had every start since Hanigan went on the DL

simplicio · Jul 5, 2016

Lose Remerswaal said:
Has he caught him yet? Vazquez had every start since Hanigan went on the DL

Pretty sure Leon's caught Wright in AAA before.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 5, 2016

simplicio said:
Pretty sure Leon's caught Wright in AAA before.

Wright had 8 starts in Pawtucket last year, 4 were caught by Swihart, 4 by Matt Spring. Wright's has no time in AAA this year, and Leon wasn't on the Sox before 2015, so I'm not sure when that might have happened. Maybe in Spring Training this year?

simplicio · Jul 5, 2016

Lose Remerswaal said:
Wright had 8 starts in Pawtucket last year, 4 were caught by Swihart, 4 by Matt Spring. Wright's has no time in AAA this year, and Leon wasn't on the Sox before 2015, so I'm not sure when that might have happened. Maybe in Spring Training this year?

You're right, looks like a couple days in spring training.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 5, 2016

yes. 5 2/3 innings over 2 games in ST this year.

YTF · Jul 5, 2016

As little experience as Leon has, I have to think that given Handyman's struggles catching the knuckleball that he's not going to be put back in there unless Leon proves to be worse. Fingers crossed, because an unearned run counts as much as an earned one.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 5, 2016

YTF said:
As little experience as Leon has, I have to think that given Handyman's struggles catching the knuckleball that he's not going to be put back in there unless Leon proves to be worse. Fingers crossed, because an unearned run counts as much as an earned one.

Did Hanigan really struggle all that much? More or less than Vazquez did?

Most of Wright's numbers are better pitching to Hanigan than Vazquez (10 starts vs 6 starts)...2.35 vs 2.72 ERA, .190 vs .255 BAA, .561 vs .684 OPS against.

Hanigan, in 65 innings catching Wright, gave up 16 passed balls and 7 wild pitches (for these purposes, I'm including both to illustrate how often a pitch got away while runners were on base). Vazquez, in 36 innings, gave up 5 PB and 2 WP.

Probably worth noting that 8 of Hanigan's PB and 5 of his WP came in the last three games he caught, which I believe were about the time he started experiencing issues with his neck. In his previous four games catching Wright, there was just one PB and one WP.

In my opinion, the only concern is if Hanigan's neck issues were in any way related to the knuckleball and that catching Wright might cause them to flare up again. Other than protecting his health, there's no real reason to not have Hanigan catching Wright.

chrisfont9 · Jul 5, 2016

Lose Remerswaal said:
A Sosher wrote about this:

That's a nice story by Leon but it didn't bear out in Pawtucket for the first two months of the season. Only when he got to Boston did he turn into Ty Cobb with power. I can buy that he has figured out a few things, and he won't regress all the way back, but offseason changes don't quite explain what we are seeing.

E5 Yaz · Jul 5, 2016

Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
The plan (for now) is for Sandy Leon to catch three of every five games, with Ryan Hanigan handling knuckleballer Steven Wright. It's too soon, manager John Farrell said, to know if Blake Swihart's recovery from a right ankle sprain will allow him to catch again this season. In Triple-A, meanwhile, Christian Vazquez is tasked with making up for time lost last year, especially offensively.

E5 Yaz · Jul 5, 2016

Sandy Leon ‏@sandyleon41 23h23 hours ago
Thanks to all for the congratulations, but all the glory is only for God who has brought me here

mauidano · Jul 5, 2016

E5 Yaz said:
Sandy Leon ‏@sandyleon41 23h23 hours ago
Thanks to all for the congratulations, but all the glory is only for God who has brought me here

Dave Dombrowski? Who knew?

simplicio · Jul 5, 2016

E5 Yaz said:
Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
The plan (for now) is for Sandy Leon to catch three of every five games, with Ryan Hanigan handling knuckleballer Steven Wright. It's too soon, manager John Farrell said, to know if Blake Swihart's recovery from a right ankle sprain will allow him to catch again this season. In Triple-A, meanwhile, Christian Vazquez is tasked with making up for time lost last year, especially offensively.

I have a hard time taking that at face value, and I think chances are really good we see a shake up at the end of the month. Options and sustainable hitting questions aside, it seems like Hanigan is the obvious man out, and I wonder if they might be putting him back with Wright hoping to get some looks from Toronto. Josh Tole has seen his role expanded from just being Dickey's caddy to give Martin more rest, despite being absolutely awful. It's in the division, but honestly I can't think of another contending team for which he'd represent a clear upgrade. Maybe Pittsburgh's already tired of Erik Kratz?

DeadlySplitter · Jul 5, 2016

Not only is it in the division, but the season could come down to the last series with the BJs at Fenway. I doubt either team wants to make even a minor deal they could regret.

Rasputin · Jul 5, 2016

E5 Yaz said:
Sandy Leon ‏@sandyleon41 23h23 hours ago
Thanks to all for the congratulations, but all the glory is only for God who has brought me here

You're welcome, Sandy, you're very welcome.

Rasputin · Jul 5, 2016

simplicio said:
I have a hard time taking that at face value, and I think chances are really good we see a shake up at the end of the month. Options and sustainable hitting questions aside, it seems like Hanigan is the obvious man out, and I wonder if they might be putting him back with Wright hoping to get some looks from Toronto. Josh Tole has seen his role expanded from just being Dickey's caddy to give Martin more rest, despite being absolutely awful. It's in the division, but honestly I can't think of another contending team for which he'd represent a clear upgrade. Maybe Pittsburgh's already tired of Erik Kratz?

How do you come to the conclusion than Hanigan is the obvious man out?

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 5, 2016

simplicio said:
I have a hard time taking that at face value, and I think chances are really good we see a shake up at the end of the month. Options and sustainable hitting questions aside, it seems like Hanigan is the obvious man out, and I wonder if they might be putting him back with Wright hoping to get some looks from Toronto. Josh Tole has seen his role expanded from just being Dickey's caddy to give Martin more rest, despite being absolutely awful. It's in the division, but honestly I can't think of another contending team for which he'd represent a clear upgrade. Maybe Pittsburgh's already tired of Erik Kratz?

Unless they believe that Leon's offensive explosion is indicative of him maintaining an MLB viable bat, there's no equation in which Ryan Hanigan is traded this season. At some point, Leon is going to come crashing down to earth. At that point, I'd imagine it will come down to him staying on the big league roster or trying to sneak him back through waivers to Pawtucket and bringing Vazquez back. Either way, a healthy Hanigan is going to have a job with the Red Sox the rest of the year.

Rasputin · Jul 5, 2016

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Unless they believe that Leon's offensive explosion is indicative of him maintaining an MLB viable bat, there's no equation in which Ryan Hanigan is traded this season. At some point, Leon is going to come crashing down to earth. At that point, I'd imagine it will come down to him staying on the big league roster or trying to sneak him back through waivers to Pawtucket and bringing Vazquez back. Either way, a healthy Hanigan is going to have a job with the Red Sox the rest of the year.

I could see the Sox selling Hanigan if they completely tank before the deadline.

Don't really think it's likely but it's not impossible.

simplicio · Jul 5, 2016

Rasputin said:
How do you come to the conclusion than Hanigan is the obvious man out?

Unless Leon goes the rest of July without a hit, he's never making it through waivers again. He's shown good hitting form, decent defense with a strong arm and he's 27 and controlled through 2019. Why on earth wouldn't he be claimed? If continues his silly pace and leads the league in doubles by the end of the month and Chicago offers Quintana for him then sure; otherwise he's not leaving Boston this season.

As for Vasquez, even with his offense and defense down from 2014 levels, he's been better than Hanigan by practically every metric this year. He's the best defensive catcher we have, he's 25 and controlled through 2020.

Hanigan's a nice veteran to have around, but he's been garbage offensively, and not great on defense this year either. If he comes back healthy and shows his last few terrible starts were just a result of playing through injury, will be ever be more valuable than this month? He's 35 and controlled next year for a very reasonable 800k. We have at least two catchers who can do the job better and project better into the future; why wouldn't we try to get something of value for him while (if) we can?

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 5, 2016

Because you're best off preserving assets and moving him in the offseason. If you trade Hanigan and Leon or Vaz get hurt, you're F'ed six ways from Sunday. You're looking at Dan Butler for a playoff run. The difference between Vaz and Hanigan isn't worth the risk. If Swihart were healthy, sure.

simplicio · Jul 5, 2016

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Because you're best off preserving assets and moving him in the offseason. If you trade Hanigan and Leon or Vaz get hurt, you're F'ed six ways from Sunday. You're looking at Dan Butler for a playoff run. The difference between Vaz and Hanigan isn't worth the risk. If Swihart were healthy, sure.

So better to not field your best possible team for the rest of the season because if someone gets hurt then the hypothetical replacement backup won't be as good? That doesn't make sense to me. And outside of personal caddy situations, how much playing time does a backup catcher even see in the postseason?

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 6, 2016

simplicio said:
So better to not field your best possible team for the rest of the season because if someone gets hurt then the hypothetical replacement backup won't be as good? That doesn't make sense to me. And outside of personal caddy situations, how much playing time does a backup catcher even see in the postseason?

First, apologies, by 'playoff run' I meant 'run *to the playoffs'. So I'm talking about probably 30-40% of the games left in the season. I was on my phone so didn't elaborate on my points.

If Hanigan is worth anything in a trade, it will only be because his hitting has returned to his career norms. The tiny sample size we have seen this year (when he was likely injured for at least a portion of) is not the hitter Hanigan has been. If he spends the next month being the guy he's been, with solid D and a ~ 80-85 OPS+ guy, that player *is* the better player between he and CV right now. CV's defense doesn't appear to be as superlative as thought and most likely not enough to close the gap between the two players. If he doesn't hit and is thus less valuable than CV, what is his trade value?

Either scenario there - he hits or he doesn't - doesn't lead to trading him and exposing your depth for the possible return. I would ask what you think they would be able to get in return? No one is trading a reliever or starter of enough value to help this year, certainly not with the prices teams will be able to get.

Lose Remerswaal · Jul 16, 2016

In case you missed it, Sandy Leon now has the all time MLB record for highest batting average at the All Star break for a hitter with at least 50 at bats.

And a single and a three run HR today.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jul 16, 2016

He is also the newest member of the Hartford Yard Goats. My fantasy team, not the real minor league team in the armpit of New England.

In all seriousness, if you have told me in April that Sandy Leon would be playing well enough to be used as a backup catcher at all, never mind a fantasy baseball catcher, I'd have asked you what you were smoking. This is an absolutely incredible run he's on. He'll turn back into a pumpkin eventually, of course, but I'm no longer certain he'll never be good enough to be worth having on a major league roster for an extended period of time.

Also, yes, when he stops being a god at the plate, you can all blame me for daring to ride this hot streak in my league.

E5 Yaz · Jul 16, 2016

Ian Browne ‏@IanMBrowne 2h2 hours ago Bronx, NY
Sandy Leon's homer had an estimated distance of 412 feet, per Statcast. And we are no longer even surprised, right?

simplicio · Jul 16, 2016

2015/2016:

garlan5 · Jul 16, 2016

Hurricane Sandy

RustyKuntzwasnotastripper · Jul 16, 2016

How much longer before we seriously consider him to be the catcher of the future instead of Vasquez or Swihart? I always thought it would be nice if Vasquez had Swiharts offense. So far Sandy is better than that.

Cesar Crespo · Jul 16, 2016

RustyKuntzwasnotastripper said:
How much longer before we seriously consider him to be the catcher of the future instead of Vasquez or Swihart? I always thought it would be nice if Vasquez had Swiharts offense. So far Sandy is better than that.

At least 250-300 more plate appearances. He's at 64 PA this year. The last 2 years he slashed .174/.234/.204 in 197 PA.

ponch73 · Jul 16, 2016

Snodgrass'Muff said:
Also, yes, when he stops being a god at the plate, you can all blame me for daring to ride this hot streak in my league.

It's an ABSOLUTE LOCK that he will exactly match last year's mediocre .238 / .202 / .439 slash line. Assuming the same number of PA as in 2015 (128), here's what he will do with his 64 remaining PA's in 2016:

-6 hits
-19 total bases
-3 runs
-2 HR
-10 RBI

I'd have to think that those negative counting stats would wreak havoc on your fantasy baseball team.

P.S. Let's be ridiculously optimistic and assume that Sandy goes 0-for in his next 64 PA. At that point, his .591 OPS will still be over 150 points higher than what he put up in 2015.

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