There seems a lot of anger directed at people that (accurately) point out the extreme confluence of events that lead to 2013.joe dokes said:
Rusney Castillo Conundrum
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
MikeM said:
His batting line as a 24 year old in his final season in Cuba was marginally better than Yoan's (who was 17). I'm not sure why this is a shocking development. His rank in OPS in the CNS, with Jose Abreu and Yoenis for comparison:
2012: 68th (1, N/A
2011: 20th (1, N/A
2010: 38th (1, 11)
2009: 96th (1, 11)
2008: DNQ (10, 20)
I never quite understood the bidding war (and it's obvious why the Yankees stayed out), and the contract was pretty insane, but hopefully AAA is the right spot for him to work on his game and develop into Cespedes-light. It's quite a bit to spend on a fourth outfielder which appears to be his upside at this point, but the money is already spent.
Drek717 said:
Maybe, but going back to the "he needs regular at bats" line of thought i have my doubts that they'll see such a need as the defining factor in a call up.
Overall point being that a complete limbo status there lends a little more credit to Olney's suggestion imo. Which to me then presents the speculative question on where that rough cut off point would logically reside in a cut your losses approach to situation.
Putting the hindsight thoughts aside a minute, if a team stepped up with a $45m of the remaining 60 interest (plus say a semi-interesting prospect coming back) in Castillo tomorrow, do we make that trade?
mt8thsw9th said:
I don't think that is really fair. He had 150 ABs spread over 2 years in 2008 and 09 as 20/21 year old so I dont put much stock in that. He got a regular gig in 2010 and 11 and hit well, esp in 2011. OPSs of 928 and 940 at ages 22 and 23. Other comparators in these years: in 2010, Alex Guerrero at 23 years of age OPS 1.000 and Puig at 19 with an OPS of 1.011, in 2011 Yasmany Tomas at 20 OPS's at 913. Tomas never duplicated Castillo's 2010/11 numbers in 3 CNS years, but seems to be handling NL pitching pretty well this year.
It is true Rusney had a down year in 2012 in Cuba but the notion that his Cuban batting stats confirm him as mediocrity, with a ceiling of a ML 4th OF, is a stretch indeed.
Similarly, I cant see writing him off based on his 110 ML ABs with an OPS+ of 87.or his 115 ABs at AAA where his OPS of 754 is comfortably over league average of 690. It is actually pretty impressive given the extended time off.
Re the trade idea, I am still struggling with this, given the evident need for 1-2 2016 OFers. De Aza has had nice little 80 AB run for us, but I don't see him as having any future with this team after the 2015 "pennant race" other than fighting with Nava and Craig for a 4th/5th OFer gig.
MikeM said:
Right now? Hell no. Based on a total of just 225 PAs in their organization, it's time to give up and pay some other team a portion of his salary to be rid of him? No way, not with at least one starting gig, possibly two (LF dependent on how Ortiz/Ramirez/1B shakes out) being open as soon as next spring.
I think the only reason to say yes to that trade right now is if you were never sold on the guy in the first place. And if that's the case, why did they invest the $72M at all?
Red(s)HawksFan said:
They probably also see Castillo as having a better chance of being on the 25 man roster long term, despite his less than stellar hitting in Pawtucket. It was less than a season ago that they thought highly enough of him to ink him to a 7 year, 72.5 million dollar contract. What Bradley is doing this year is encouraging, but most of the indications we have (including this call up) point to the Red Sox betting on Castillo being the better player.
I'm kind of interested in the behind the scenes stuff here.
Castillo is starting today. How did he get to Boston in time? Was he already up with the team because the org knew something was up? Did he have time pregame warm ups and BP?
Castillo is starting today. How did he get to Boston in time? Was he already up with the team because the org knew something was up? Did he have time pregame warm ups and BP?
What in earth difference does it make whether the replacement is LH or RH? If Bradley hits at all .. Just a little .. If he OPses .720 then he's a good player. If he gets it up to .750 then he's approaching an all star .. If north of .800 he's one of the best players in the league.
The potential gain here is massive so let him play. And they're screwing around with Castillo?
The potential gain here is massive so let him play. And they're screwing around with Castillo?
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
They've got a shit-ton more money invested in Castillo. I wouldn't call it screwing around. JBJ is getting paid peanuts, he's younger, and he has options left for next year as well. They have plenty of reason to be more patient with him.
Even then, he would have had about 4 hours to get his stuff, drive to Fenway, warm up. Seems like a lot
I'm sure Boles was told earlier in the day (or last night) what was about to happen and for Castillo to get up there. It's not like moving Vic caught Ben blindsided.BosRedSox5 said:
Castillo is 28. Bradley is 25. Bradley has a big ML sample of sucking and looks to have made major swing modifications to get his current mL results. Castillo isn't changing anything, just shaking off rust (which he has likely had enough time for now). Bradley's trade value is going up by producing in AAA. Castillo's is going down the longer he is in AAA no matter how he hits because of the dollar value and length of his deal.BosRedSox5 said:
It makes complete sense why they went to Castillo first, and as it turns out Bradley is getting a shot himself.
Hopefully Castillo can begin to start finding a way to hit the ball somewhere other than the left infield dirt. His 2014-15 spray chart looks somewhat similar to Bogaerts in 2014, who during his dark days last year was just pounding everything into the ground on the left side. Interestingly, when he does put it in the air, it tends to be to the opposite field.
Here's a chart that includes both time in the majors and in the minors.
And here is a breakdown of his results and batted ball types.
Leave average rates so far this year: 45.4% GB, 21.0% LD, 33.6% FB
Rusney breaks down to 63.2% GB, 16.1% LD, 20.7% FB
And here is a breakdown of his results and batted ball types.
Leave average rates so far this year: 45.4% GB, 21.0% LD, 33.6% FB
Rusney breaks down to 63.2% GB, 16.1% LD, 20.7% FB
Hey, at least he's tough to double up. That alone is an upgrade over pretty much everyone on the roster (over age 23).Snodgrass'Muff said:
Castillo has decent wheels, but guys who pound it into the ground that much typically are either elite speed guys (Yelich, Gordon, Iglesias, Ben Revere, Lagares, etc.), and guys who are just not very good hitters at all. That high of a GB% with solid speed should result in a higher BABIP than his current .292, so hopefully some more of those grounders start finding their way through.
It's not rust. He wasn't in the majors before. Anyone assuming he should be fine by now is either guessing (correctly) or underestimating the adjustments he needs to make.Drek717 said:
I'm not saying he'll be fine, just that he needed to get back into playing baseball regularly before his current approach to the game could even be assessed fairly at the ML level. It is entirely possible he'll still suck, but it won't be due to a prolonged absence from playing competitive baseball.chrisfont9 said:
Drek717 said:
As lost as he's looked at times, as of now Castillo's career line (139 PA) stands at .326/.408/.734, and he is 5/5 on steals. He's advanced from striking out to grounding out, and appears to have cut down on the mental errors. That line over a full year with good OF defense would be nothing to sneeze at.
You seem to have a very rough definition for "elite speed guys". Never once did I see Iglesias described as that and his high for SB in his professional career is 13. You can have the worst base running instincts in the world and if you have "elite speed", you blow well past 13 SBs. Gordon, Yelich and Lagares don't fit into the category either. Don't confuse defensive range with speed. Or, if you're going to lump those guys in the same category, use a different description. JBJ has great range but he's certainly not elite speed. Guys like Billy Hamilton are elite speed.jscola85 said:
I'll add that by scouting reports Castillo should be faster than Iglesias.
Can someone weigh in on how his contact looks? Is it hard grounders a that could become line drives with a bit of lift?
Can someone weigh in on how his contact looks? Is it hard grounders a that could become line drives with a bit of lift?
Castillo has a 65 run tool according to fangraphs which is the same grade as our fella Margot. I would guess Moncada is probably close to that as well. (Just checked - MLB.com does have him at 65) FWIW, out of the top 100 prospects, 5 rate as 65 or higher.
Michael Taylor is below that with a 60 run tool, and had a 75 Spd score in the minors which he hasn't yet reached in the majors. It's kind of tough to replicate because minor league catchers are obviously worse, and it's much easier to pile up the steals. Spd takes SB's, SB attempts, triple % and runs into account and is on a 0-100 scale.
Castillo has only had a 45-50 speed score so far in majors and minors combined which tells me he just hasn't figured out how to use it to his advantage, and/or his instincts kind of suck.
He seems like the type of guy who would be your Go route guy in flag football.
Michael Taylor is below that with a 60 run tool, and had a 75 Spd score in the minors which he hasn't yet reached in the majors. It's kind of tough to replicate because minor league catchers are obviously worse, and it's much easier to pile up the steals. Spd takes SB's, SB attempts, triple % and runs into account and is on a 0-100 scale.
Castillo has only had a 45-50 speed score so far in majors and minors combined which tells me he just hasn't figured out how to use it to his advantage, and/or his instincts kind of suck.
He seems like the type of guy who would be your Go route guy in flag football.
Castillo's line this year in many ways is very similar to Xander's (numbers presented in that order):
BB%: 4.0 4.0
K%: 17.2 15.6
ISO: .096 .097
the main difference is in the BABIP: .307 .372
which in turn is a product of Rusney's very low LD% compared to Xander's solid one:
LD%: 10.5 20.9
The missing line drives aren't turning into popups, they're turning into ground balls: Rusney has the highest GB% in the majors among 385 players with at least 90 PA (69.7%). So it seems like the first order of business for Rusney is to find a way to get the ball in the air a little more, hopefully without sacrificing contact.
BB%: 4.0 4.0
K%: 17.2 15.6
ISO: .096 .097
the main difference is in the BABIP: .307 .372
which in turn is a product of Rusney's very low LD% compared to Xander's solid one:
LD%: 10.5 20.9
The missing line drives aren't turning into popups, they're turning into ground balls: Rusney has the highest GB% in the majors among 385 players with at least 90 PA (69.7%). So it seems like the first order of business for Rusney is to find a way to get the ball in the air a little more, hopefully without sacrificing contact.
A couple of things:
1) Not to hijack the thread but Iggy is sitting on an INH% of 9.3, which is high but not abnormal. 30th in the game and behind plenty of other players, including our on XB. I don't think using him as an example of a "speed guy" is correct, he is neither particularly fast nor relying on beating out grounders. He uses the whole field, doesn't strike out, hits some line drives (21.7%)and keeps the ball out of the air. A good all-around formula for slap hitting.
2) Castillo appears to be more of a long speed guy. He doesn't get out of the box quickly, as several observers have noted. But what you don't get with the TV angles is a good look at turns around first. From the RF grandstand he looks like he's been shot out of a cannon going from 1st to 2nd base.
1) Not to hijack the thread but Iggy is sitting on an INH% of 9.3, which is high but not abnormal. 30th in the game and behind plenty of other players, including our on XB. I don't think using him as an example of a "speed guy" is correct, he is neither particularly fast nor relying on beating out grounders. He uses the whole field, doesn't strike out, hits some line drives (21.7%)and keeps the ball out of the air. A good all-around formula for slap hitting.
2) Castillo appears to be more of a long speed guy. He doesn't get out of the box quickly, as several observers have noted. But what you don't get with the TV angles is a good look at turns around first. From the RF grandstand he looks like he's been shot out of a cannon going from 1st to 2nd base.
The X Man Cometh said:
Iggy gets out of the box really well (for a RHH especially). Helped him a ton during his BABIP-fueled 2013 with the Sox. He's more quick than fast. Rusney is the opposite, so far.
soxhop411 said:
That's nice to hear (especially that Castillo has taken so well to coaching), although often a long swing can hurt your ability to make contact and Castillo has generally hit for decent average in his limited time in U.S. pro ball. He could probably get away with it for a little while because he has really good batspeed, but it's got to be tough to hold up on good breaking stuff or adjust to late movement when you have to start your swing so early. Having come up in the shorter season Cuban leagues and then not playing for two years - that's a lot of adjustments to make.
And maybe I'm crazy, but Castillo seems like he used/uses a larger bat than usual for a guy his size? Nothing wrong with that per se, just kind of interesting.